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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Bond Stock Gap Is Bullish Signal ... Leuthold Group ... Jim Paulsen
    “This relatively rare condition of intense stock market fear, combined with a generally calm bond market, has proved to be a powerful combination for ensuing stock market returns,” Paulsen wrote in a note Tuesday.
    When the VIX is above the 80th percentile and MOVE is below the 50th percentile, the average annualized S&P 500 price performance has been “remarkable -- at nearly +21% compared to only a little more than +7% the rest of the time,” he said.
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-08/bond-stock-volatility-gap-is-bullish-equity-signal-for-leuthold
    In checking the stock futures, about an hour before the markets open, this morning, it looks like the market is set to build on Monday's gains.
    The futures ... https://finviz.com/futures.ashx
    Old_Skeet has been a buyer of equites during this downdraft believing that program trading had the markets oversold. It is now nice to see the stock market rebounding since ... as the saying goes ... I caught some falling knives. I'm thinking ... as the 500 Index begins to approach the 2700 to 2800 range things will slow and we will trade off of TTM earnings projected by S&P to be in the $130's. This could take us sideways and in a trading range through summer. Hopefully, though, when fall comes forward earnings will start looking better (possible in the 150's to 160's) and this will set stocks up for a nice fall stock market rally.
    Anyway ... this is how I see it.
    Take care ... be safe ... and, I wish all "Good Investing."
    I am, Old_Skeet
    @mcmarasco ... Matt you asked for a signal. Jim Paulsen is one I have followed for years. I have found that his thinking has been pretty much on spot. Hope this helps you sort things out. Anyway, his comments confirmed my thinking. By the way ... my fixed income sleeve took a beating much more than I thought it would. With bond valuations being down I have now begun to buy in the fixed income area of my portfolio.
  • Dodge and Cox
    Your contrib is so valuable, but are you really so insecure you have to impugn ('obsess') anyone who offers even mild corrections or challenges ?
    Anyway, let me add that FXAIX does not outperform either Vanguard SP500 product if you go back to their spring 1988 origin, only more recently.
  • Dodge and Cox
    and FXAIX is cheaper yet
    Correct, since I started talking about Vanguard I wanted to stay with it.
    Fidelity 500 Index Fund ( FXAIX )=015%...Vanguard 500 Index Admiral (VFIAX)=040%
    Fidelity Tot Market Index Fund ( FSKAX ) =015%...Vanguard Total Stock Mkt Index Admiral (VTSAX)=0.4%
    But if you are really obsessed about expense ratio then Fidelity has several funds with zero expense ratio.
    Fidelity® ZERO Large Cap Index Fund (FNILX)
    Fidelity® ZERO Total Market Index Fund (FZROX)
    Fidelity® ZERO Extended Market Index Fund (FZIPX)
    Fidelity® ZERO International Index Fund (FZILX)
    But FNILX didn't do better than VFIAX since inception.
  • ONERX
    My 2 cents, don't buy fund until it reaches critical mass. Even PVCMX shows it has less than 10MM. I've had too many funds close on me, so I'm staying away.
    PS - M* saying ONERX up over 8% today. Seriously...
  • Dodge and Cox
    I think you got the mandate wrong there. D&C is not required to beat the S&P 500. They are acting to select value stocks which they deem safer and worthy of their clients money. It's obvious to me that many investors do, judging by the AUM. For many of them it's not just all about who has the biggest pile of money at the end of the day. Not everyone can make trades after the fact.
    See 15 years of risk/reward(link).
    As of 3/31/2020
    15 years aver annual performance...VFIAX=7.39...DODGX 5.45%
    15 years SD=volatility......................VFIAX=14.3...DODGX 17.1
    The SP500 made close to 2% more performance annually. If you invested $100K in each(VFIAX vs DODGX) 15 years ago, you would have now $293.2K in VFIAX but only $223K in DODGX
    But DODGX had almost 20% more SD=volatility.

    This means the SP500 was a better risk/reward fund than DODGX. Unless you disregard the numbers above, how can you explain "safer"?
    BTW, for 10 years (link), the numbers for DODGX get even worse. VFIAX had 2.33%(11.04 vs 8.7%) better annual performance (instead of close to 2% for 15 years) + SD is still worse(higher) for DODGX by over 20%
    To the question of size? "You can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time." The SP500 + US Tot Index (VTI) are so much bigger than DODGX but wait, most of the saved money is thru 401K, employers now must in most cases use indexes, especially for US LC and/or very cheap funds such as Target funds (mainly based on indexes) because it is very difficult to defend fiduciary duty.
    and we already discussed that VFIAX expense ratio is so much cheaper too at 0.04% but VOO=0.03% while DODFX = 0.52%
    Finally, nobody can stop you investing in DODGX, after all, it's your money but the above was a pretty clear case, at least for me :-)
  • Dodge and Cox
    I got out yesterday from OAKBX in my IRA. Eff this S***.
    I'm going to buy 100 SPY and sell 1 Covered Call All every week. Need to generate my own cash flow. I cannot rely on bonds in "balanced" funds providing ballast. If market keeps going down I will calculate my cost basis = price paid - premium collected and keep selling 1 call at strike = cost basis. If market goes up, I will keep collecting premium and potentially surrender the 100 SPY shares. If so, then will buy 100 SPY...rinse and repeat.
    Trying this out in IRA first so don't have tax headache. If it works, will sell every dang balanced fund I have and do in taxable too. With option commissions what they are now, this could be viable strategy.
    No one went broke paying taxes.
  • Something Positive That Is Showing Green ...
    @johnN
    Herd mentality ? NAH......
    Some large trade houses, hedge funds and the ALGO's.
    Fishing the bottoms across the sectors in equity and bonds. Stay for 10 or 15 minutes and move.
    = nice day for the longs and shorts, if one is in the right place at the right time.
  • Something Positive That Is Showing Green ...
    Hi sir @_Charles
    herd mentality.. My thoughts exactly ..Dows ++ 700s points opening now barely +1%
    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=KutXyPEEbQs
  • Key Takeaways From PIMCO’s Cyclical Outlook: From Hurting to Healing
    This blog post discusses what Pimco observed when they gazed into their crystal ball:
    We are seeing the first-ever recession by government decree – a necessary, temporary, partial shutdown of the economy aimed at preventing an even larger humanitarian crisis. What is also different this time is the unprecedented speed and size of the monetary and fiscal response, as policymakers and monetary authorities try to prevent a recession turning into a lasting depression.
    image
    We believe this crisis is likely to leave three long-term scars:
    Globalization may be dialed back
    More private and public debt
    Shift in household saving behavior
    We believe a caution-first approach is warranted in an effort to protect against permanent capital impairment.
  • Investor who predicted the start of the 2009 bull market: Beware of a double bottom
    Nothing new here but it may be worth repeating...
    Legendary investor Mark Mobius.....was asked Monday if the recent 20% rally off the bottom of the quickest bear market in history signaled an all-clear for investors...Mobius cautioned investors....“I think it's a little early to predict that because given the lockdown that we have seen globally in so many countries around the world, the impact of this lockdown on businesses, it's not going to be seen immediately..... I believe that once the numbers start coming in, people will be somewhat disappointed.”
    ...historical bear markets on a global scale have averaged a larger 30% to 50% drawdown spread out over the span of roughly two years. “The most expensive words in the world are ‘This time is different.’ I don't think this time it's different,” he said. “I think we’re probably maybe going to do a double bottom, jumping down again and pushing up again.”
    “The recovery may take longer than people expect,” he predicted, barring any absence of a New Deal-like work program. “It's going to be a real challenge to get these people back to work.
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/investor-who-predicted-the-start-of-the-2009-bull-market-were-not-in-the-clear-yet-104234346.html
  • Hedging Risk: How to Pandemic- Proof Globalization
    I wanted to revisit a conversation on globalization and start a new thread on this "new normal".
    I found this article regarding globalization regarding this present health threat (Covid-19).
    As airports, factories, and shops slow down or shut down, the novel coronavirus pandemic is testing the international supply chains that define the current era of globalization. And the multi-factory and often multi-country manufacturing processes used by companies around the world are proving more fragile than anticipated. If the virus and the economic wreckage it is causing aren’t contained soon, blueberries and avocados won’t be the only things missing from market shelves across the still chilly Midwest and Northeast United States. Cars, clothes, electronics, and basic medicines will run short as far-off factories disconnect.
    how-pandemic-proof-globalization
    If you own equities you're probably a global investor. This article mentions that S&P 500 companies derive about 70% of the revenues from the US, the rest outside of the US.
    What I wonder is how dependent are these S&P 500 companies on the rest of the world with regard to the production of these products/services. How do we maintain supply lines across borders?
    how-global-is-s-and-p-500
    As for cars, here are a couple of examples of where parts are sourced for a single integrated product like a car.:
    a-graphic-representation-of-whats-really-made-in-america
    2019-american-made-index-whats-the-most-american-car

    A closer look at individual S&P 500 companies and why they maybe more Multinational than American:
    why-us-companies-arent-so-american-anymore
    As we get back to our "New - New Normal" I wonder how investment risk will be described and hedged when it come to these interconnected markets. What hedging strategies do investors need in their portfolio to hedge risk.
    Comments welcome.
  • IRA Conversion to Roth -- start a new Roth?
    @royal4 - I had considered that but if the market goes up from here there doesn't seem to be a reason for doing so.
    ALSO: " A Roth IRA conversion made on or after January 1, 2018, cannot be recharacterized. For details, see “Recharacterizations” in Publication 590-A, Contributions to Individual Retirement Arrangements (IRAs)."
    IRA FAQS - Recharacterization of IRA Contributions
  • IRA Conversion to Roth -- start a new Roth?
    The reason to start a new roth from what I've read is suppose the market tanks and you want to re-characterize. It's easier to do with a new roth aka earning etc... I'm not 100% sure but remember something along those lines. If you want more details....google is your friend.
  • Dodge and Cox
    @FD1000
    The whole idea of the SP500 is the fact that the best companies get to the top and why this simple "stupid" cheap brilliant idea works
    Do the best companies always get to the top? That is the $10,000 question. Saying they do is basically an argument for efficient markets, that only the best companies rise to the top and are priced as they should be. If you believe that, fine. Many people do. But then there's no reason to be on a board devoted to undiscovered actively managed funds like this one. In fact, your investment decision is relatively simple. Buy Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI) and be done with your equity allocation. No need to consider factor active funds D&C's or factor index ones like VTV because the market is always right in such a view.
  • Old_Skeet's Market Barometer ... Spring & Summer Reporting ... and, My Positioning
    An update. With the S&P 500's 175 point gain today (+7%) Old_Skeet's stock market barometer now scores the Index with a reading of 165. This moves the Index, on the barometer's scale, from Extremely Over Sold (175) to Oversold (165). A lower barometer reading indicates that there is less investment value in the Index than a higher reading.
    I did some tax loss selling today and sold PMAIX & APIUX. I plan on putting the sell proceeds to work in the near term. My targeted buys are PFANX (new position) and funds I plan to add to are DIFAX, FBLAX, FRINX, AZNAX, IDIVX & DWGAX. Thank you @davfor for noting PFANX to me last week. I am also saving a little to add to CTFAX after it makes its June distribution which I estimate to be a sizeable one.
    I am still with my plan to direct the portfolio's income generation into the income sleeve with targeted buys in BLADX, FLAAX & JGIAX during the second quarter and perhaps on through summer.
  • Dodge and Cox
    I do sometimes wonder when there are contentious posters who rarely comment on this board and then suddenly do to insult folks if some people don't have multiple identities here. I know it's happened before.
    D&C has a number of positive traits analysts like--low fees, low turnover or trading costs, long tenured managers, carefully thought out products without an excess of launches, a lack of celebrity jerk managers from the team approach and consistency of style. All of that said, value has been a terrible place to be since the end of the 2008 crash. D&C are value managers and ones that sometimes take on more risk than they should, investing in particular in financial stocks that can suffer from leverage problems for instance. That is a value managers' bread and butter, but some competing value managers have done better with more of a quality overlay. High quality value--with less leverage and more consistent earnings--is not as cheap as "value classic," but it tends to hold up better in downturns.
    Oh, regarding the S&P 500 fund(s), it most definitely isn't a value fund. The way it works is at the beginning of a bull market it has value characteristics and at the end of one it has growth characteristics as the largest most popular stocks dominate it. What it really is is a momentum fund, and when the momentum is positive as it has been for a long time until now, the most popular stocks get an increasingly large weighting and they are invariably the growthiest names. Comparing it to D&C most definitely is wrong.
    The larger question that seems to get asked repeatedly on this board is is value investing dead? A better question I think is do you think the tech sector darlings that comprise the lion's share of growth indexes will continue to dominate the world forever or will other less popular sectors eventually make a comeback? The academics would have us believe that as the ur-factor bigger than JC in finance, it must eventually come back. But much of what constitutes financial academia is really weak science at best. There is a lot more evidence for anthropogenic climate change, and a significant portion of failed scientists/poor mathematicians and snakeoil salesmen in finance don't believe in that, yet do believe in the value factor or say they do to sell their actively managed higher cost products.
    Can't claim the expense ratio card when VTV beat DODGX
    D&C love financial and it costs them. That tells me they are stubborn instead of looking for better choices.
    No, we don't question value, we question DODGX for short+long term. It's already 15 years that they fall behind the "stupid" VTV.
    How can you make excuses for DODGX when this value fund was worse on the way up and much worse in market meltdowns
    Well, why not make up a unique fund strategy such as the following...our goals are to invest mostly in LC but if we find good value in SC+MC we can use too...and this way nobody can compare our fund to anything ;-)
    The whole idea of the SP500 is the fact that the best companies get to the top and why this simple "stupid" cheap brilliant idea works, so now you say, wait, no more, not fair...really?
    But I always let the numbers talk, after all, numbers are more objective. I looked up MFO database for the last 10 years for LC value. For MFO,Sharpe,Martin rating DODGX ranks at 3 out of 5, there are so many better options. VTV=VIVAX is at the top ranking at 5.
    VTV has better performance than DODGX from 1 to 15 years but also lower SD. VTV is based on "an indexing investment approach designed to track the performance of the CRSP US Large Cap Value Index" how can you defend thousands of hours of analysis fall short to an index? :-)
    So, I'm expecting someone to post...well, if you look for 20-25-30 years then...nope, 15 years is long enough and year to date looks awful for DODGX. Sure, you can wait another 10 years and hope for better results.
    BTW, do you expect the financial to get you back to even? :-)
    Lastly, posters who defend DODGX probably own it.
  • MARKETS Stock market live Monday: Dow rises 1,600, up 20% from low, Yellen’s shocking forecast
    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/06/stock-market-live-updates-dow-futures-up-750-nasdaq-futures-up-4percent-bottom-in.html
    /Stock market live Monday: Dow rises 1,600, up 20% from low, Yellen’s shocking forecast
    Stock market live Monday: Dow rises 1,600, up 20% from low, Yellen’s shocking forecast
    Stocks jumped as Wall Street bounced back from a steep market sell-off—Three experts on state of the markets
    Stocks ripped higher to start the holiday-shortened week as a combination of positive headlines eased investor angst after last week’s abysmal March jobs numbers. Though the White House said this week’s COVID-19 deaths could be substantial, the administration struck a more optimistic tone at its press conference on Sunday. Here’s what happened:
    4:30 pm: Rally by the numbers
    Dow closed up 1,627.46 points or 7.73%, at 22,679.99, posting its third biggest point gain ever
    Year to date: Dow is down 20.53%, on pace for its worst year since 2008 when the Dow lost 33.64%
    From Record: Dow is 23.30% below its intraday all-time high of 29,568.57 from Feb 12
    S&P 500 closed up 175.03 points, or 7.03%, at 2,663.68, for its best day since Mar 24th when the S&P gained 9.38%
    Year to date: S&P is down 17.55%, on pace for its worst year since 2008 when the S&P lost 38.49%
    From Record: S&P is 21.51% below its intraday all-time high of 3,393.52 from Feb 19/
    Bottom 18500 few wks back*?
    Maybe sideways for awhile until more stability w covid19?
  • Dodge and Cox
    Interesting, and interesting to parse the various strands of value in a gross sense.
    I just graphed SP500 over 10-7-5-3-1y beating VOOV (SP500 value) and RSP (SP500 equal-weight), with the latter two overlaying much more than not. Both outperform RPV significantly and constantly; DODGX is only somewhat better than RPV.
    CAPE is better than everything until 4y and nearer, and then tracks SP500 plus or minus, showing, I guess, that its auto-churn thing is not value but growth cloaked as.
    Or maybe I have that backward.
  • Old-Joe or anyone, Home page acting differently
    I wish I could chime in with an answer - sadly not. I can say that nothing has changed "behind the scenes." We haven't recently updated anything or changed any settings in the discussion forum software.
    My Windows 10 and Chrome Browser combo still seems to be working correctly - updating to remove the yellow when I click the back icon.
    You might try clearing the cache to see if that helps. I've been really surprised at the problems that can be fixed that way.