Old_Skeet's Market Barometer ... Spring & Summer Reporting ... and, My Positioning As of market close March 27th, according to the metrics of Old_Skeet's stock market barometer, the S&P 500 Index remains extremely oversold with a reading of 175. This is on the high side of the barometer's scale. A higher barometer reading indicates there is more investment value in the Index over a lower reading. This past week, the short volume declined, a little, from an average of 60% to 55%. The VIX (which is a measure of volatility) fell and went from a reading of 54 to 45. This is good. However, due to the reporting of extremely high unprecedented unemployment clains, the the stock Index's valuation lost ground during week moving from a reading of 2541 to 2489 for a decline of 2% with a decline of 26% off it's 52 week high. No doubt sellers controlled the market this week as there was outward money flow. The three best performing sectors for the week were health care, consumer staples and energy.
In addition, the barometer's earnings feed was reset with new numbers. Currently, S&P projects that the Index will generate TTM earnings in the mid $130.00+ range over the next two quarters and in the $150.00+ range on forward estimates. I'm thinking under current projections a good valuation number for the Index is in the range of 2400 to 2800 through summer. This is quite a spread; but, there remains a lot of uncertainty as well. Please know the Index could move above (or below) these projections.
From a yield perspective, I'm finding that the US10YrT is now listed at 0.60% while at the beginning of the year it was listed at 1.92%. With the recent stock market swoon the S&P 500 Index is currently listed with a dividend yield of 2.39% while at the beginning of the year it was listed at 1.82%. As you can see there is a good yield advantage for the stock Index over the US Ten Year Treasury. With this yield advantage, during the month of March, I have been favoring my equity income funds over my fixed income funds. I have read where S&P is expecting some companies to reduce or even cut their dividend payments.
Even with anticipated reduced dividend payments, I expanded my domestic equity income sleeve during the month of March from four to six funds and rasied my allocation to equities from 40% to 45%. In addition, I did a little buying around the edges in equities in other parts of my portfolio. Since, I now have a near full allocation to equities I've now started to buy during April on the fixed income side by adding to FLAAX and FRINX. In addition, as my portfolio generates income I plan to keep buying on the fixed income side during the month and perhaps on into May. A few funds I plan to add to (and position cost average these positions) are BLADX and JGIAX.
My three best performing funds for the week were all found on the income side of my portfolio. They were GIFAX +2.47% ... JGIAX +1.02% ... and, BLADX +0.95%.
Thanks for stopping by and reading.
Take care ... be safe ... and, I wish all ... "Good Investing."
Old_Skeet
FUND reopenings I'm Master Artisan trader. I cycle in / out of their funds. I cylced out a little early in 2019 and didn't enjoy gains, and then was happy in February. However I started adding a bit and the floor simply fell our from under their funds.
So I'm waiting to cycle back in. The point. Don't fall in love with funds / fund manager. In bull market KNOW which companies funds will do well and go along for the ride. Don't be greedy and don't try to get "market returns".
Just the way I do things. Probably does not fit into either "trading" or "investing" definition.
The one mistake was I bought APFDX and was forced to plonk down $2500. That's hurting.
The Coronavirus Crash Reveals a Big Problem In Bond Fund Pricing
When Can America Reopen From Its Coronavirus Shutdown? Life in a Covid-19 world....
CROWD CONTROL: Walmart still wants customers, just fewer of them at a time. The nation’s largest retailer said it will now allow no more than five customers for each 1,000 square feet at a given time, roughly about 20% of the average store’s capacity. To oversee the restriction, workers will mark a queue at a single-entry door, and direct arriving customers there, where they’ll be admitted one by one. Walmart joins Target and others in trying to limit the number of customers in the store to curb the spread of the coronavirus.
FMIJX = OUCHX I've been surprised by the performance of FMIJX this year. The fund's 31.98% YTD loss is greater that 96% of its peers in the Foreign Large Blend category. The FMI team is conscious of valuations and wary of excessive debt. Their funds usually hold up well during market downturns.
DSENX - another one that was good until it wasn't
Oil crash poses severe test for OPEC+ after Moscow, Riyadh miscalculate Can someone please explain to me how oil goes up 14.5% and my FSENX drops almost 2%? How the heck am I diversifying my risk away ??? Might as well sell, take tax loss and buy USO.
Falling Angels? (Crisis In The Bond Markets) I am afraid we may be fast approaching "sell everything" mode. I'm just glad I got out of everything in my 401ks by end of Feb
Towle Deep Value Fund to reopen to new investors Oh am I glad I passed on this one. WHO is going to invest in this fund? 56% down. "Deep s***". It is below where it was in late 2012.
When Can America Reopen From Its Coronavirus Shutdown?
M* Are Bond Funds 'Broken' as Diversifiers? YTD in my IRA: FIPDX +3.47, FNSOX +2.38, TSBRX -.65, DODIX -.91, DBLSX -4.6, and BILDX -7.3.
In my taxable: AZTYX -2.37, VWLUX -3.56, DMBIX -4.03, and VWALX -6.13.
Wife's IRA, which is at a different place than mine: VAIPX +3.36, VFIJX +3.30, VSGDX + 2.42, FTHRX +.41, and PYSBX -1.96
Not a picnic. But not a catastrophe. So far.
I sure wasn't expecting any action from the TIPS funds.
I've owned DBLSX and pretty disappointed with its performance over the past month.
U.S. High-Yield Bond Funds See Record Inflow After Exodus No thanks - this is like a buy low and sell lower scenario. Junk bonds are filled with oil shade producers and given the oil priced situation they are going bankrupt. The carnage has yet all play out in this risky sector. Case in point, JNK is down 16.7% from December 31, 2019. Think I will stay with treasuries.
Falling Angels? (Crisis In The Bond Markets) This is a mostly visual look at the unfolding crisis the bond markets and how we got here. Here are a few excerpts from the narrative. The visuals are worth looking at:
More than half of corporate bonds are classified by ratings agencies as risky, known as junk. An additional 30% are hovering one notch above.
...the U.S. Federal Reserve has pledged trillions of dollars to keep cash in the credit markets flowing. That support, however, is only available to companies with investment-grade debt.
About 51% of investment-grade corporate bonds globally were rated just above junk last year...a shock to the economy could set off a wave of downgrades, which would push a large and growing number of companies into junk territory.
When bonds become junk, many investment funds are contractually obligated to sell them. Forced sales can set off negative cycles. Some investors expect the Fed and the U.S. Treasury - whose job it is to work together to keep the U.S. economy on a steady footing - to reach further down the ratings ladder to help non-investment grade companies. At present, it has no plans to extend its safety net to junk.
As a result of the economic shutdown, and not factoring in any help from the Fed, the most pessimistic estimates by Moody’s project that corporate junk bond defaults will rise to more than 20% by next year.
https://graphics.reuters.com/HEALTH-CORONAVIRUS/CORPBONDS/qmyvmgylvra/index.html
M* Fund Spy: Primecap Can Ride Out Its Airline Stocks' Turbulence Note again - this article reflects holdings as of year end 2019. We as shareholders have no idea what these funds hold today nor will we until the first of June, 2020 at best AND even then those holdings data will be stale as well.
M* Are Bond Funds 'Broken' as Diversifiers? YTD in my IRA: FIPDX +3.47, FNSOX +2.38, TSBRX -.65, DODIX -.91, DBLSX -4.6, and BILDX -7.3.
In my taxable: AZTYX -2.37, VWLUX -3.56, DMBIX -4.03, and VWALX -6.13.
Wife's IRA, which is at a different place than mine: VAIPX +3.36, VFIJX +3.30, VSGDX + 2.42, FTHRX +.41, and PYSBX -1.96
Not a picnic. But not a catastrophe. So far.
I sure wasn't expecting any action from the TIPS funds.
M* Fund Spy: Primecap Can Ride Out Its Airline Stocks' Turbulence "The coronavirus’ economic fallout has hit investors in airline stocks especially hard, perhaps none more so than Pasadena-based Primecap Management Company. At year-end 20
19, Primecap firmwide owned
14% to
16% of the shares outstanding in three different airlines and stakes in nine other air carriers. As Exhibit
1 shows, shares of each of these airlines shed between 40.7% and 76.
1% during the depths of this still-unfolding bear market (Feb. 20, 2020, to March 23, 2020), versus a 33.8% drop for the S&P 500 index."
All 6 Primecap funds are exposed
S&P 500 Stocks Hanging By A Thread As Macy’s Is Booted Off https://www.gurufocus.com/news/1094700/sp-500-stocks-hanging-by-a-thread-as-macys-is-booted-off/S&P 500 Stocks Hanging By A Thread As Macy’s Is Booted Off
S&P Global Indices disclosed on April
1 that department store retail giant Macy’s (NYSE:M) “will be removed from the S&P 500 effective prior to the open of trading on Monday, April 6.” The company will be moved to the S&P 600 SmallCap Index instead, and it will be replaced by Carrier Global Corp. (NYSE:CARRW), an air conditioning company being spun off of United Technologies (UTX). According to S&P Global Indices, Macy’s no longer belongs on the S&P 500 because of its low market cap and low growth expectations./
Unbelievable. One of America's great brand name would no longer be in sp500
U.S. High-Yield Bond Funds See Record Inflow After Exodus https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-02/u-s-high-yield-bond-funds-see-record-inflow-of-7-09-billion/U.S. High-Yield Bond Funds See Record Inflow After Exodus
GOLDMAN SACHS GP
149.93USD+4.64+3.
19%
IVZ
INVESCO LTD
8.22USD+0.2
1+2.62%
TDG
TRANSDIGM GROUP
284.47USD+
11.93+4.38%
Investors poured a record amount of cash into U.S. high-yield funds this week as the junk-bond market recovered from its worst slump in more than a decade.
The funds added $7.09 billion in the week ended Wednesday, according to data from Refinitiv Lipper. This reversed a course that had seen almost $20 billion withdrawn from those same funds over the last six sessions, including $2 billion last week.
‘Tremendous Opportunity’
As U.S. junk bonds started to find a floor, investors including Goldman Sachs and Invesco are seeing reasons to buy.
“There are tremendous opportunities out there,” said Ashish Shah, co-chief investment officer of fixed income at Goldman Sachs Asset Management. He estimates junk bonds will return about 20% this year as growth rebounds in the fourth quarter and fallen angels outperform.
High-yield lost
11.5% last month and is down
13.6% this year. The market fell almost
16% in October 2008. Last year’s total return was
14.3% and high-yield hasn’t been up more than 20% since 2009, when it surged 58%./
Article discussed positives movements in junk bonds areas past few days. Maybe time to reconsider adding to corp junk bond positions. The curve may appears revived for junks past wk or so. Will it remains stable over next month?...who knows
https://www.google.com/search?q=jnk+stock
Towle Deep Value Fund to reopen to new investors https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318342/000139834420007430/fp0052470_497.htm497
1 fp0052470_497.htm
Towle Deep Value Fund
(Ticker Symbol: TDVFX)
A series of Investment Managers Series Trust
Supplement dated April 3, 2020 to the
Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information,
both dated February
1, 2020, as supplemented,
and the Summary Prospectus dated February 3, 2020 as supplemented.
IMPORTANT NOTICE ON PURCHASE OF FUND SHARES
Effective as April 6, 2020, the Towle Deep Value Fund is publicly offered to new investors.
Please file this Supplement with your records.
Oil crash poses severe test for OPEC+ after Moscow, Riyadh miscalculate Trump announced that he has word from Russia and Saudi Arabia that they will make large cuts in production. Maybe, maybe not -- he's made pronouncements in the past. But oil stocks predictably jumped up: Chevron up 11% today, Exxon 8.4%.
If I were a suspicious person, I'd wonder who might have known what he would say.
Of course, he knew.
David