Jack Bogle Interview on Index Funds and the bleak future for Active Managers Hi Guys,
Jack Bogle is a great man. He changed the investment business forever and in so doing he significantly reduced investment costs for all investors. I remember when the entry costs for buying a mutual fund were obnoxious. Yes, for the last 40 or so years, Bogle has sung the same song. But it is a song that has revolutionalized an industry to its very core and deserves repititions.
Index investing now owns roughly 30% of the mutual fund industry market share and is gaining every day. Even a giant agency like the state of California is firing some of their active investment management and replacing them with Index advocates. Returns are likely to improve with that decision as costs are reduced and bad decisions are eliminated.
Index investing will never totally replace active investing management. We need active investors for price discovery purposes. I have seen TV shows that estimated we only need about a 20% to 30% active market players to satisfy that purpose. Indexing still has a long growth potential.
There is reliable data on the average fund holding period for the individual investor. It's about 3 years. Equity fund investors hold their funds for a little over 3 years while bond fund holders are slightly less patient at just under a 3-year average period.
That trading frequency generates sad outcomes for the average fund holder since his return is only about 1/2 of what the fund he invests in earns. Women do better with their investment decisions than their male counterparts.
Here is a Link to the DALBAR site that has a ton of investor data:
https://www.qaib.com/public/qaibquarterlyI suspect most MFOers do not subscribe to the DALBAR service for access. So here is a Link to a brief summary of the DALBAR data designed to encourage a sale of their service:
http://www.dalbar.com/Portals/dalbar/cache/News/PressReleases/DALBAR Pinpoints Investor Pain 2015.pdfThis DALBAR summary tells the sad tale without comment. Here is another Link that interprets these same investor data sets:
https://blog.folioinvesting.com/2012/05/11/the-most-common-mistake-investors-make/Enjoy. I hope many MFOers are among the more patient investors. Trading frequently is indeed hazardous to our wealth.
Best Wishes.
Additional Input: I referenced the DALBAR research without providing an accessible Link. I just discovered a Link that does yield an example of the DALBAR work. Here is that Link:
https://www.bellmontsecurities.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/2015-DALBAR-QAIB-study.pdfI have not read their report in detail, but it appears to support the observation that individual investors suck on average. Of course, no MFOers are average!
Jack Bogle Interview on Index Funds and the bleak future for Active Managers T. Rowe Price? According to M*, it offers 1
55 different funds (counting only one share class per fund). But that still includes several clones, e.g. TRAMX and TRIAX (Africa &Middle East - "regular" and Institutional funds). Knock those off and you still have about 11
5. If you like counting clones, add in about ten
VA clones, not to mention clones sold by other companies, such as ITCSX (a Voya-marketed version of PRWCX).
PRCPX might survived if structured as an interval fund. Several bank loan funds started out that way.
Not sure what you mean by average active investor. Do you mean the average investor who invests largely or primarily in active funds? That would be interesting to study.
Or do you mean the average of investors who actively (i.e. frequently) trade? That wouldn't be so interesting, because by definition they're all trading a lot, regardless of what their average is.
Jack Bogle Interview on Index Funds and the bleak future for Active Managers The jury's still out on his broad premise. But gotta like this zinger:
"We make too much out of past performance, and it's very misleading to investors. It causes them to move money around. They buy a fund that's hot and then it turns cold as all hot funds eventually do. And then they get out. Well, buying at the high and selling at the low isn't going to leave you a satisfied shareholder ..."
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Maybe there's data somewhere on the average fund holding period today of the average active investor? Some still buy and hold for decades. A few probably never look. But an increasing number will dump a new fund if it hasn't performed well for a few months. Than they'll buy whatever's been hot lately. Strikes me like shopping for a new home or car and buying whichever one's become the most expensive lately.
Blame the fund companies for a lot of this. How many different funds does T. Rowe now offer? (Maybe 75 or something like that - not counting different classes). With the ease of online trading and an itchy trigger-finger one can appreciate how hard it is for many to stay put.
See PRCPX T. Rowe Price Credit Opportunities Fund. Hot dang!
DSEUX / DLEUX DSEUX is available at Fido with TF. DLEUX is not (yet) available.
$
5K min in IRAs, but $100K min in taxable accounts.