Our exposure is limited to mid-cap funds due to the large cap dominance in the last 10 years. This is unusual period where Mag 7 stocks provide a sizable earnings for S&P 500 index. Can this continues in the near future?

Just posted all ratings to MFO Premium site, using Refinitiv data drop from Friday, 6 June 2025. Flows too updated through 6 June.

"Greenlight Capital Founder and President David Einhorn discusses the challenges of value investing
in the current market environment, his investment approach, and the performance of his fund over the years.
Einhorn expresses concern about the US government's fiscal and monetary policies,
which he believes are fundamentally inflationary.
He speaks with David Rubenstein on this week's episode of Bloomberg Wealth."

Chapters:
00:02:48 - Greenlight Capital
00:09:06 - USD
00:10:54 - US Decoupling with China
00:12:40 - Warren Buffett
00:13:27 - Einhorn's Background
00:19:27 - Poker
00:21:09 - Advice
00:22:21 - Investing $100k
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=48In79LWrio

I discovered the following video while navigating the vast interwebs.
I know Mr. Giroux has many fans here.
"In this conversation, Giroux shares his investment philosophy,
including how he identifies GARP (growth at a reasonable price) opportunities,
adapts to market inefficiencies, and constructs a resilient portfolio.
He also discusses his outlook on AI, interest rates, market cycles,
and why long-term thinking remains a powerful edge in today's short-term-obsessed market."
Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction to David Giroux and his track record
02:00 What “growth at a reasonable price” means to him
05:00 Market outlook and 5-year return forecasts
10:00 How short-termism creates opportunity
12:00 Tariffs, macro shocks, and stock picking
16:00 The role of bottom-up IRR modeling
18:00 Does passive investing distort market signals?
22:00 The inefficiencies created by sector-based ETFs
26:00 How his process evolved to capture intangible-rich businesses
29:00 Tech valuations vs. the dot-com bubble
32:00 Where he sees opportunity: software, healthcare, utilities
36:00 Areas he’s avoiding: financials and cyclicals
38:00 The role of management and capital allocation in success
43:00 How he uses quantitative tools for downside risk
46:00 Risk-adjusted return as the true North Star
48:00 How investor behavior has changed over his career
50:00 The long-term economic implications of AI
53:00 U.S. vs. international stocks from a bottom-up view
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J6SBVS7VpTA

"Knowledge of DIY for whatever may prove to be a wonderful source of money (money not spent, eh?)"
For sure. Being able to DIY in my younger years has been a major factor in accumulating enough to be able to pay others now that I''m 85. I do have to say that I find it very painful though, to pay obscene amounts to have stuff done that I used to be able to do for free. G'rrrr...

Yup... I just gave up going on the roof this year to trim trees or clean gutters. In the back of my mind I'm thinking you're going to feel real stupid in the hospital with all the money you have in the bank. Talking to myself -> Use your brain, it's time to pay somebody else to do this stuff.

The national debt is long ago and way beyond obscene. Remember the '50s? Jim Crow. No Medicare yet. I do not think we had such a huge expansion in "welfare," as we do now. Yes, WIC and Food Stamps/SNAP and Medicaid serve a good purpose. And Head Start.
They all add to the federal deficit, because we do not take in sufficient tax dollars to cover the expense. SS is being deliberately starved, too.... Common sense says: Raise the salary cap, or ELIMINATE it. People have paid into it for their entire working lives. It's not something to be fooled around with by Presidential Administrations. SCREW the ones that DO.
What to do? I mean, without just ARBITRARILY throwing people off programs they need?
Ah, the key question: WHY do they need such programs? Insufficient income? Disability? Failure to use common sense birth control, if they're going to be sexually active? (Remember the drug criminal Mayor of Wash, DC confronting a Wash. woman with the fact of her many children, without the means to support them, sans gov't assistance?) SOME people living on the streets could be helped, besides. To get our streets completely cleaned up of those choosing to live there, fundamental laws must be re-written: if homeless person X is mentally ill somehow, then how much should their refusal of assistance count for?
At least a partial answer to these issues might be found in a return to a sense of personal responsibility, and grabbing a sense of ambition, in the good sense of the word. Also, this country must reclaim a collective sense of the Common Good. "I've got mine, I hope you get yours, bye bye" doesn't cut the mustard. I see all types, riding the bus all over the place. I'm not as fat or as stupid or as loud or as oblivious and inconsiderate as a lot of them are; but we are all here, simply put. Everyone deserves at least a decent, if not an extravagant, life. In the USA, that very idea is on NOBODY'S radar. Hasn't been for decades at least. You want to see how it's done? Look to Europe. I'm an EU citizen. It's not heaven over there... Just a helluva lot better than it is here. (Apart from the weather in Hawaii, most of the time.)
("Remember, it's a song about Alice"...) Should there be a lifetime limit on how much anyone can draw from social programs? Or it it already the case?

"Knowledge of DIY for whatever may prove to be a wonderful source of money (money not spent, eh?)"
For sure. Being able to DIY in my younger years has been a major factor in accumulating enough to be able to pay others now that I''m 85. I do have to say that I find it very painful though, to pay obscene amounts to have stuff done that I used to be able to do for free. G'rrrr...

I agree and well said.

I tried to read this guy for a while but gave up. All hype. (One of his partners in crime John Maudlin is hawking "Longevity Clinics" apparently based on chelation infusions or something.)
"A dwelling under 1250 sq. feet represents a meager existence / lack of success in life"
I just checked. Our house from 1987 to 2020 was 1152 sq feet.
We sure must have failed:
We raised two kids who graduated Cum Laude from Ivy League schools with no debt and have great but lower paying jobs ( English teacher and development officer at small non profit) but they can do jobs they love because they have no debt.
wife and I both worked in health care, geriatrics and primary care but never made even the average for a general internists or Nurse practitioner.
We drove old cars, took cheap vacations and saved our money and certainly didn't spend it on a big fancy house, expensive furnishings or elaborate meals

Interesting read on Treasuries and your portfolio:

The potential for conflict between the Fed’s two main policy goals—supporting employment and controlling inflation—means that U.S. Treasuries have not been as attractive in the recent equity market downturn as they were in past sell-offs. As a result, T. Rowe Price’s Asset Allocation Committee recently moved to an overweight position in international developed market bonds.

are-us-treasuries-still-a-shelter-from-recession

OJ - You mean connecting 12-2 inside a gang box isn’t as easy with arthritic hands and fingers as it was 25 years ago?
Re The book - It does appear the author has a chapter devoted to his “simple and highly effective” way to invest. I dozed off listening last night. Will try again tonight and eventually share his “secret” in an update to the OP. Yes - he is beginning to resemble a resident poster.
Somniferous

The Week in Charts (06/06/25)
The most important charts and themes in markets and investing, including:
00:00 Intro
00:19 Topics
01:30 The Biggest Story in Markets This Year
06:10 Imports Plunge After Massive Front-Running
09:56 Recession Odds Continue to Fall
13:23 Don't Expect a Rate Cut This Month
17:56 Labor Market Loosening
20:11 A Little Pain Now vs. A Lot of Pain Later
26:11 Solution to the Problem = Cause of the Problem
29:26 Strong Wage Growth
Video
Blog

The inimitable Jack Hough discusses small-cap stocks in his column this week.
"It’s an asset class so perennially disappointing that mutual fund reports should come with sympathy cards.
The Russell 2000 small-cap index should be renamed the Don’t Do It.
I’d rather diversify into betting pickleball on FanDuel."
On a more serious note...
Valuations are the strongest predictors of small-cap returns.
Free cash flow and dividends are better predictors of small-cap performance than earnings growth rates.
Historically, small-caps have outperformed during episodes of stagflation.
More than a third of companies in the Russell 2000 are unprofitable
while the tally for S&P SmallCap 600 companies is only 9%.
Over the past decade, investors made 108% in the Vanguard S&P Small-Cap 600 ETf
vs. 90% in the iShares Russell 2000 ETf and 236% in the SPDR S&P 500 ETf.
"BofA takes all of this to mean that small-cap quality has bottomed
and begun to improve, and that AI can pay off for small companies, too.
In the debate between 'small-caps are due' and 'small-caps are dead,'
the bank reckons the truth is somewhere in the middle,
and that small-caps are a good diversifier, with better stock-picking opportunities than large-caps."
The author mentions several small-cap funds and individual stocks to consider.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/topstocks/small-cap-stocks-are-underloved-why-their-time-may-be-coming/ar-AA1GewXj

"Knowledge of DIY for whatever may prove to be a wonderful source of money (money not spent, eh?)"
For sure. Being able to DIY in my younger years has been a major factor in accumulating enough to be able to pay others now that I''m 85. I do have to say that I find it very painful though, to pay obscene amounts to have stuff done that I used to be able to do for free. G'rrrr...

SSGA website links for ALLW prospectus don't work for me. So, I found those from Edgar/SEC.
Summary Prospectus https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1516212/000119312525045861/d872457d497k.htm
Prospectus https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/1516212/000119312525045857/d921460d485bpos.htm
Prospectus is LONG because it's followed by SAI.
Pg 2:
"...The Fund may obtain exposure to equity and fixed securities either directly or indirectly through derivative instruments (primarily futures contracts, forwards, currency forwards, swaps and total return swaps) and through exchange traded products (“ETPs”). The Fund's investments in derivatives will create leverage, which may be substantial and may magnify the effect of any increase or decrease in the value of the Fund's portfolio holdings...
...The model portfolio typically targets an annualized volatility level for the portfolio ranging between 10%-12%..."
Pg 10: "...Borrowing Money. The Fund may borrow money from a bank as permitted by the Investment Company Act of 1940, as amended (“1940 Act”), or other governing statute, by the rules thereunder, or by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) or other regulatory agency with authority over the Fund, but only for temporary or emergency purposes. The 1940 Act presently allows the Fund to borrow from any bank (including pledging, mortgaging or hypothecating assets) in an amount up to 33 1/3% of its total assets (not including temporary borrowings not in excess of 5% of its total assets)..."

I have always thought that if the % return on debt, either by increasing GDP, national income, etc was greater than the interest rate, debt made some sense. We are only having this conversation because interest rates have increased, (and for some reason nobody floated 30 Yr Treasuries when interest rates were very low).
Both parties are at fault, but GOP more than Dems.
https://www.investopedia.com/democrats-vs-republicans-who-had-more-national-debt-8738104
I believed Reagan when in the 1980s the GOP defended the dramatic debt increases then as an effort to "kill the beast" ( Government).
Rather than return tax rates to anything approaching their previous averages, and support the IRS in collecting what is legally owed, the GOP believes it can "cut" it's way out, by cutting very popular programs and taxes.
In addition to their insanity of gutting the IRS, they want to spend $45 Billion on ICE ( aiming to eliminate $100 Billion in tax revenues that immigrants pay), but only $27 Billion on the NIH which increases productivity by adding years to lives.
I suspect we may find out sooner than later how much debt is too much. Certainly, our reputation as a reliable international partner is in shambles and will decrease foreign interest in Treasuries

'Speculation has persisted that China did not, in fact, “ignore” the Trump tariffs but instead dumped substantial quantities of its US debt holdings. “China may be selling Treasuries in retaliation,” wrote Ataru Okumura, a senior interest-rate strategist at SMBC Nikko Securities in Tokyo, in a note to clients, as reported by Bloomberg on April 11. If so, China has an incentive to show “it won’t hesitate to cause turmoil in the global financial market in order to improve its negotiating power against the US”.'
https://internationalbanker.com/finance/is-china-engaging-in-large-scale-dumping-of-us-treasury-securities/
I have also read that China selling as little as 10% of the UST it holds would be a significant circumstance.

China held $784.3 billion and $765.4 billion of Treasuries at the end of Feb. 2025 and Mar. 2025 respectively.
The value of China's Treasury holdings decreased by $18.9 billion during this period.
I don't know what has transpired since the end of Q1 2025.

The top 5 foreign holders of U.S. Treasury securities at the end of Q1 2025 are listed below.
Japan__$1.13 trillion
UK__$779.3 billion
China__$765.4 billion
Cayman Islands__$455.3 billion
Canada__$426.2 billion
I've recently read that U.S. Treasuries have lost their appeal to the Japanese
mainly because of rising costs associated with hedging the weaker USD.
https://ticdata.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Documents/slt_table5.html

I agree with @bee about aspects of the linked book and some of the brief descriptions. There is nothing wrong with prudence in financial matters, and this doesn't necessarily equal to someone being a miser and sad about the their choices.
One may readily discover that aside from the aspects of compounding investments to the positive; that the opposite exists for many people with the compounding of debt to the negative side of personal finance. Tis the same principle.
Prudence and how to create a household budget also allows for a positive learning curve.
Also fully agree with @DrVenture . Knowledge of DIY for whatever may prove to be a wonderful source of money (money not spent, eh?).
The Millionaire Next Door book
--- The book....its not always one's income, but how one's income is spent.
We've presented this book several times over the years as part of a wedding gift.
Remain curious,
Catch

Many other sites also had reported possible changes in SP500 on 6/6/25, 5:15 PM ET. I was watching too. But S&P Announcement website went down/crashed. Some blamed the overload on the crypto crowd as Robinhood/HOOD was a potential candidate (a huge news for them after Coinbase/COIN had joined SP500).
When the S&P site was back up a few hours later, it just posted that there will be no changes to SP500 constituents.
I almost posted it as "The Most Anticipated No-News of the Day".

@davidrmoran
My understanding is the federal government has run a surplus only four times
within the last 50 years and the latest surplus was in 2001.
Please share any additional pertinent information you may have.