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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Grandeur Peak Global Micro Cap Fund subscription offering info
    As I understand it you aren't going to find it at any brokerage... it's only being offered directly from GP. The only exception I'm aware of is if an advisor uses a broker's platform for his business then they'll be able to buy the fund, based on their allocation, on that platform, but I don't believe it will ever show up as available to the general public at any broker.
    What surprises me is that the fund says it's "open" on their website. I must be definitionally challenged when it comes to what that means, because $85 million of interest whiddled down to $25 million or so of allocations doesn't exactly sound like "open" to me.
  • Michael Hasenstab's Funds
    TGBAX ytd -2.83 1-year -4.94 3-year+1.27 5-year +3.00%
    MAINX ytd +0.45% 1-yr: -0.95% 3-yr: +1.31% (too young for 5-year number.)
    PRSNX ytd +0.60% 1-yr: -1.14% 3-yr: +2.18% 5-yr: +3.48%
    My PREMX holds 4.46% in Ukraine, but it's explicitly an EM bond fund.
    At FNMIX, another EM bond fund, Ukraine doesn't appear in the top 10 countries.
    Consider this, which I just saw, dated 27th October: (re: PREMX)
    "...Conviction investments keep the portfolio dynamic. An overweight to Ukraine has benefited from recent debt restructurings that were in favor of bondholders. And the fund remains committed to Brazil, with investments in sovereigns and government-backed companies--in particular, Petrobras (PBR)..."
    LINK: http://www.morningstar.com/cover/videocenter.aspx?id=718764
    Here's a less pertinent M* article. After going into it up to a point, I stopped reading. Her numbers are all screwed up. The thing is dated 02 November. She says that PREMX, (among others) is down y-t-d by -1.06%. Go to the "quote" page for the fund, and it tells you that PREMX is up, ytd by +2.60%. How reliable are her OTHER numbers in there, eh?
    For what it's worth, here's the link:
    http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?id=720665
  • Michael Hasenstab's Funds

    So it seems that as of September TGBAX is up to 8% Ukrainian bonds (from 1.8% prior). Morningstar also shows it at 50% cash, too.
    In reviewing the 2015 annual report that just came out, I am somewhat dismayed at the 'managers commentary' ... seemed rather light on analysis and commentary and just kept harping on about "absolute return". Frankly the managers commentary seemed almost like an afterthought to them this year.
    I'm still holding TGBAX but am strongly considering lightening my position due to a) 50% cash holding and b) a somewhat 'odd feeling' I had reading their managers commentary.
  • November is up
    Anent Walzer's '25k funds' puzzles, a colleague of mine in the industry speculates:

    ... bet that gross assets includes all of your derivatives positions, including those on both sides of a market, while net assets, in addition to netting out actual liabilities, would net out the offsetting positions. The fund's 7-day liquidity is how much of its portfolio it could liquidate in 7 days (and there is probably an assumed discount threshold, meaning that the fund could liquidate the assets for at least 90% or whatever of fair value). Investor liquidity is probably the amount of fund assets that investors have the right to liquidate over the next 7 days. Since liquidity in these funds is limited and sometimes requires advance notice, a number of just 15% may make sense.

  • October ETF Performance

    Ted,Good to see your posts again.Keep chuggin along.Corn must be in the bin and rent payments paid for 2016 farm lease I hope. Also hoping for this.A little way to go though.
    @MFO Members: I agree with DlphcOracl that we are still in a secular bull market, and my forecast of a 15% return, made last February, in 2014 for the S&P 500 is right on (2,215) target. For 2015, I predict the S&P 500 will close at 2,401 a 13% rise for the year.
    Regards,
    Ted
    Ted December 2014 in Fund Discussions
    http://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/54158/#Comment_54158
    Just a little "color " to Ted's post
    Major Asset Classes | October 2015 | Performance Review
    Despite the broad-based gains at the kick-off to the fourth quarter, losses still dominate the year-to-date comparisons, along with a few instances of mild gains.
    While there was a bullish wind blowing in October, there was a familiar exception. Broadly defined commodities once again dipped lower, albeit mildly so this time. Although the price for crude oil revived in October, the Bloomberg Commodity Index continued to slip, retreating by a comparatively modest 0.5% last month.
    image
    http://www.capitalspectator.com/major-asset-classes-october-2015-performance-review/
  • GLRBX or SDGIX?
    We have approximately $3,500 to invest in savings for college with a 3-5 year time frame. So far, I've narrowed it down to GLRBX or SDGIX. Is there any reason I might choose one over the other?
  • Grandeur Peak Global Micro Cap Fund subscription offering info
    I believe they had $25.4M as of the end of 10/30/15.
    October 30 was final day to fund your subscription allotment.
  • Grandeur Peak Global Micro Cap Fund subscription offering info
    $27.2 Million AUM as of 11/02/2015 - they overshot slightly
  • For investing IRA funds which one is better..LendingClub.com or Prosper.com
    Crowdfunding for everyone. Pretty exciting, thinks wired.com. So now you and grandma can invest in startups.
    http://fortune.com/2015/10/30/its-official-startups-can-soon-raise-money-from-your-grandma/
    There will be some income limitations, and platforms set up by issuers to handle the investment can be held legally liable for issuer fraud against investors. Beyond that, however, not all issuers will be required to undergo and disclose an audited financial review, and I suspect you'll be on your own.
    http://www.howardlindzon.com/crowdability-the-sec-approves-equity-crowdfunding/
    "The media will tell you your Grandma is about to get gutted by hucksters.
    She might.
    But she was also getting pitched 3D printing stocks and the safety oil income trusts a few years back by her ‘registered’ financial advisor."
    @bnath001 Are you a rational person? If so, then Jeffrey Carter believes in you, because he's "a huge fan of individual liberty." He'd tell you to go for it--- the Full Monty! :)
    http://pointsandfigures.com/2015/11/01/sec-approves-crowdfunding-for-everyone/
  • Few Funds Are Ready for this $100 Trillion Risk - The fossil-fuel free future of mutual funds
    I'm thinking that the risk is low that oil producers will find their wares unwanted....though the geopolitical impact of the shift away from petroleum-based energy is fascinating to contemplate.
    I suppose you could argue that the free market is helping to drive this shift, but it is also undeniable that the kick-start from governments was also helpful. And actually, by governments, I was mainly talking about China...though we are clearly trying to play catch up.
    thanks for the post Davfor...posted below is another link with related information.
    press
    http://fs-unep-centre.org/publications/global-trends-renewable-energy-investment-2015
  • Mizuho financial group buying stake in Matthews Asia
    Received proxy voting material for new advisory agreement due to change in ownership structure. Specifically, Mizuho (Japan) is buying a 16% stake - primarily from the founder and the current chairman - and placing a rep on the board. All advisory fees are supposed to remain the same.
    Any thoughts?
    http://www.mizuho-fg.co.jp/english/release/20150930_2release_eng.html
    (1)Mizuho Bank will acquire approximately 16% of the equity interests in Matthews Asia.
    (2)Along with this investment, Mizuho Bank will designate a member to the Matthews Asia Board of Directors.
  • November is up
    Leigh shared the following with Jim, sending it as a private message though he'd intended to post it here. He gave me permission to copy and paste it.
    David
    The FundAttribution site has been up since June 2015. The website is in beta test.
    Backtesting results are posted in the password-protected portion of the site. Historically, the predictions have been accurate: managers who have been skillful in the past tend to remain skillful. The statistical confidence in the predictions is high.
    Forward-looking predictions for the large blend category are also posted on the site.
    Registration for demo (free for MFO readers) is required to access the studies. Demo users can also see results for individual funds in two categories with limited functionality
    I failed to mention that class probability is the single best metric because 1) it takes account of fund expenses 2) it considers how much confidence we have that current skill will carry forward.
    Leigh
  • Few Funds Are Ready for this $100 Trillion Risk - The fossil-fuel free future of mutual funds

    "The value of sustainable business opportunities could reach $10 trillion annually by 2050 — 4.5 percent of the world’s projected GDP: Morgan Stanley"
    "There's a $100 trillion global sleeper risk behind the moves to fossil fuel-free investments."
    "One of the concerns is that fossil fuel companies' won't be able to tap reserve assets across the globe in the future due to the governments of the world waking up to a worsening environment and taking strict regulatory action. The idea that oil and gas companies will have to write off tons of natural resources underground, and possibly go bankrupt themselves, is referred to as the "stranded assets" theory."
    For those who are interested, here are a few carbon-free socially responsible funds:
    Parnassus Endeavor Fund (PARWX)
    Expense ratio: 0.95 percent
    5-year return:15.23 percent
    $1.4 billion in assets
    PAX World Growth (PXGAX)
    Expense ratio: 1.26 percent
    5-year return: 12.28 percent
    $191.3 million in assets
    Gabelli SRI (SRIGX)
    Expense ratio: 1.64 percent
    5-year return: 7.66 percent
    $73 million in assets
    Portfolio 21 Global Equity (PORTX)
    Expense ratio: 1.4 percent
    5-year return: 6.27 percent
    $433 million in assets
    Calvert U.S. Large Cap Core Responsible Index Fund (CISYX)
    Expense ratio: 0.60 percent
    5-year return: 14.34 percent
    $636.5 million in assets
    See: Constance Gustke
  • New I Bond Rates - 1.54% to 5.17%
    Yes, but the maximum purchase allowed is $10,000 per calendar year. That wouldn't make a dent in my need to find a decent place to park cash.
    You can also buy $5K/year in paper(!) bonds by purchasing them directly with your IRS tax refund.
    https://www.treasurydirect.gov/indiv/research/faq/faq_irstaxfeature.htm#refund
    So maybe you can make a dent-and-a-half in your stash.
  • For investing IRA funds which one is better..LendingClub.com or Prosper.com
    Here is a good headline and an accompanying article about the new S E C rules
    YOU TOO CAN NOW INVEST IN STARTUPS! WHAT COULD GO WRONG?
    JULIA GREENBERG BUSINESS DATE OF PUBLICATION: 11.01.15..wired.com
    Risks, Rewards, Returns
    The Securities and Exchange Commission voted this past week to approve so-called equity crowdfunding rules for investors
    All of which is pretty exciting. Startups like Pebble and Oculus Rift have been able to succeed with the help of crowdfunding from sites like Kickstarter. . For new startup investors, however, the best plan is to take it slow. Oculus and Pebble are the anomaly, not the norm.
    'It's the law of startups—mathematically the most likely exit for a startup is failure.'
    “Even if you’re truly invested in investing in a startup, the odds are against you,” Swart says. .”
    While individual angel investors and venture capitalists have been able to reap millions of dollars from smart investments, they don’t only invest in one or two startups—they invest in many, knowing most will fail and hoping that one hits it big. They also have experience, industry expertise, research, and money—all things that a regular person might not have when looking at a new equity crowdfunding platform. Education about what investing in early stage startups really means is crucial.
    “It’s like the new lottery,” says Southwestern Law School professor Michael Dorff. “There are very few Peter Thiels in the world. It’s like asking, ‘Why can’t I be Warren Buffett?’ There are a lot of smart people trying to be Warren Buffet or Peter Thiel. Your odds are slim even with the experience, expertise, and education.
    http://www.wired.com/2015/11/you-too-can-now-invest-in-startups-what-could-go-wrong/
  • New I Bond Rates - 1.54% to 5.17%
    Even with a 0.0% fixed rate on some generations of I-Bonds, try to find another investment as liquid (after one year of ownership) yielding 1.54%, principal guaranteed, backed by the US government. Tax deferred (and state tax exempt) to boot.
    Great place for emergency cash.
  • New I Bond Rates - 1.54% to 5.17%
    From Current Series I Bond Rates
    When the inflation rate is less than zero, the earnings rate will be less than the fixed rate but never less than zero.
    Fixed rate = 0.10%
    6 month Inflation rate = +0.77%
    Composite rate =[fixed rate + (2 x inflation rate) + (fixed rate x inflation rate)]
    [0.0010 + (2 x 0.0077) + (0.0010 x 0.0077)]= [0.0010 + 0.0154 + 0.0000077)] = 0.0164077
    0.0164077 x 100% = +1.64%
    ==> Thus, the current I Bond Composite Earnings Rate is 1.64% with a fixed rate of 0.10%
    For older iBonds you hold, see Current Interest Rates for Older Series-I Bonds
    I own some with a 3.0% base rate that will pay 4.56%!
  • November is up
    Hi, expat!
    Any leads on publicly-accessible versions of NDR's research? I spent about a half hour looking. The links at Ned Davis's "news" page lead mostly to bearish, locked stories. "Given the extent of indicator deterioration, last week's action has moved us closer to the latter conclusion (that the stock market is in the early stages of a bear market)," Ned Davis Research said in a note early Monday" (CNBC Pro) and "By this measure, the current stock market is anything but healthy. The 10-week moving average of weekly readings recently rose to 5.7%, well above the level that many researchers use as the threshold for a “sell” signal. (Fosback, for example, set this threshold at 5%, considering readings above that level as evidence of “extreme market divergence and ... bearish.” The threshold employed by Ned Davis Research, the Venice, Florida-based research firm, is 4.4%.)" (Hulbert).
    I found one (danged fluffy) piece in Seeking Alpha that quotes an NDR headline ("Bottom in place: Overweight equities") without letting me find or understand the original. I searched for references to Ned Davis and "bull" in news articles for the past month. From that I learned that "Raw materials may be in the fourth year of a 20-year 'bear super-cycle,' according to the Ned Davis Research Group" and that gold might drop into the 600s from its current 1100s (locked article). There's the note that NDR says November - January are the best times to be in the market (I agree). Beyond that, it was pretty slim pickings.
    Two things about my occasional (or more than occasional) market commentaries. One is that I try to rely on folks where I can get to the original research or analysis, rather than relying on a CNBC soundbite. I like GMO and Leuthold in particular because they've got a long public record and seem willing to own up to their limits. The other is that my impulse is to be neither bearish nor bullish; mostly I'm trying to get people to think beyond their immediate impulse, whether that's to panic (our September stuff denouncing the panic-mongers) or return to the "permanent high plateau" (November). Since the market goes up more than it goes down, I probably spend more time chanting "remember, thou too are mortal" (memento mori) than "live it up!" (dum vivimus, vivamus).
    For what that's worth,
    David (who, you're right, isn't grading that stack of papers to his left)