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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Mutual Fund Ladder (vs a CD Ladder)
    I asked a question as part of a different thread, but thought it worthy of its own limelight.
    Here's part of that thread:
    rphyx-rsivx-new-commentary-explains-mistakes-that-resulted-in-credit-losses
    @David_Snowball commented on a possible alternative to RPHYX or RSIVX :
    "...the best bogey I've got is Osterweis Strategic Income (OSTIX), which Mr. Sherman considers a legitimate peer. In their worst stretch, it took them nine months to recover from a drawdown. Since OSTIX is still below its previous high, the drawdown underway now might last longer. So maybe this is your "in a year or two" money, which implies judging performance over a couple year cycle."
    This got me thinking and I commented back to David:
    "Just picking up on your thoughts for OSTIX as part of someone's "in a year or two" money. I went a bit further and added other time frames as well as other fund considerations to create kind of a "fund ladder"."
    For Less than 1 year money - PSHDX, BSBSX, FOSIX,
    For 1 year money - RPHYX or RSIVX...or instead, maybe FIRJX or DLSNX
    For 1-2 year money - OSTIX,
    For 3-5 year money - PONDX, FAGIX

    Anyone have thoughts on what your "fund ladder" might consist of?"
  • WealthTrack Preview: Guest: Matthew McLennan, Co-Manager First Eagle Funds
    FYI:
    Regards,
    Ted
    October 29, 2015
    Dear WEALTHTRACK Subscriber,
    Founding father Benjamin Franklin famously wrote “…in this world, nothing can be said to be certain, except death and taxes.” To that I would add another certainty:
    change - and the world is changing rapidly.
    Sometimes it comes from unexpected places. Hidden away in the budget bill that is making its way to the President’s desk is a Social Security surprise.
    Two strategies to maximize Social Security benefits for married couples are being eliminated. We have talked about them with Social Security guru Mary Beth Franklin several times on WEALTHTRACK. One is “file and suspend,” where one spouse files for benefits but suspends collecting them until full retirement age, thus reaping the rewards of higher benefits down the road. It has also enabled the person to collect the accrued suspended benefits if they change their mind. The other strategy being eliminated is frequently done in tandem with file and suspend. It is when one spouse files a restricted claim for spousal benefits, while waiting until the last possible moment to start collecting their own Social Security, essentially being paid while they wait.
    The good news is these benefits are being grandfathered in for those taking advantage of them now and there is a six month window for anyone eligible to take advantage of them once the bill is passed.
    But as Mary Beth Franklin notes, “future retirees who are younger than 62- those born in 1954 or later- are out of luck.”
    The other action adding to uncertainly this week was the Federal Reserve’s decision to keep interest rate policy unchanged, or at zero bound for yet another meeting. The Fed is hinting that its first interest rate hike since June 2006 will take place at the December meeting.
    As last week’s guest Michael Hartnett of Bank of America Merrill Lynch pointed out global interest rates are at 5,000 year lows, and the developed world is currently experiencing one of the slowest and longest deflationary recoveries ever. Central banks around the world are engaged in an unprecedented wave of monetary easing to reverse that deflation.
    As leading research firm Evercore ISI reported to clients, the balance sheets of the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank are expected to expand an incredible 30% plus this year, and China has announced more than 70 fiscal stimulus actions so far this year.
    Inflation in just about every country is MIA. The two notable exceptions are Brazil and Russia. Both are in recession and are grappling with high inflation.
    How this will all end is anyone’s guess, but this week’s WEALTHTRACK guest is not taking any chances. Matthew McLennan predicts we are entering an era of increased crises. McLennan is Head of the Global Value Team at First Eagle Investment Management and Co-Portfolio Manager of several funds, including the flagship First Eagle Global Fund, which he has run since 2008. The global fund is in the top decile of its world allocation category over the last five and ten year periods and is known for its superior risk-adjusted returns, performing better in market downturns than its peers and benchmark index.
    On this week's show McLennan will explain how he is building an all-weather portfolio to withstand future market storms.
    The show is available to our PREMIUM viewers on our website right now and to everyone else over the weekend. You’ll also find an online only EXTRA interview
    with McLennan about why he has made a point of devoting much of his free time to educational institutions.
    Thank you for watching. Have a great Halloween weekend and make the week ahead a profitable and a productive one.
    Best Regards,
    Consuelo
  • RPHYX / RSIVX: New commentary explains mistakes that resulted in credit losses
    @David_Snowball,
    Just picking up on your thoughts for OSTIX as part of someone's "in a year or two" money. I went a bit further and added other time frames as well as other fund considerations to create kind of a "fund ladder".
    For less than 1 year money - PSHDX, BSBSX, FOSIX,
    For 1 year money - RPHYX / RSIVX...or, maybe FIRJX or DLSNX
    For 1-2 year money - OSTIX,
    For 3-5 year money - PONDX, FAGIX
    Anyone have thoughts on what your "fund ladder" might consist of?
  • RPHYX / RSIVX: New commentary explains mistakes that resulted in credit losses
    I chatted with Mr. Sherman a bit just before the publication of his quarterly letter. It seems to me that there are four factors weakening his relative performance:
    1. mistaken judgments about three individual issues. On whole, those sort of goofs have been rare but when your performance edge might be fractions of a percent a year, they count. In this case, the goofs have cost nearly 380 bps. The fund trails its peers this year by 125 bps. He's written-off one, anticipates partial recovery in a second and hopes for full recovery in a third (Hunt).
    2. herding in the high-yield space. In the first week of October, HY mutual funds saw $700 million in withdrawals but HY ETFs saw $1.4 billion in inflows. That dramatically boosted issues represented in the major ETFs but left orphan issues largely in the dust. It also may presage hot money trading in the sector.
    3. a not-very-coherent peer group. Multi-sector bond, like "miscellaneous region," covered a huge variety of disparate strategies and asset allocations. In Mr. Sherman's case, his allocations differ dramatically from the peer group's in 16 of 17 bond sub-categories. On his allocation to BBB-rated bonds (21%) is typical.
    4. a substantial commitment to ultra-conservative issues. About 40% of the portfolio overlaps the far more conservative Short Term High Yield fund and those issues aren't subject to the sort of rebound that longer-dated ones are.
    The portfolio has a yield-to-maturity of 8.57%, rather better than its high-yield benchmark.
    For me, the questions are (1) is there a systemic problem with the fund? And (2) what's the appropriate time-frame for assessing the fund's performance? I don't see one with the former, though we're scheduled to meet Mr. Sherman in November and will talk more. On the latter, the best bogey I've got is Osterweis Strategic Income (OSTIX), which Mr. Sherman considers a legitimate peer. In their worst stretch, it took them nine months to recover from a drawdown. Since OSTIX is still below its previous high, the drawdown underway now might last longer. So maybe this is your "in a year or two" money, which implies judging performance over a couple year cycle.
    For what interest that holds,
    David
  • Oppenheimer International Small Company Fund is changing its name
    http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1041102/000072888915001473/intlsmallcom497.htm
    497 1 intlsmallcom497.htm
    OPPENHEIMER INTERNATIONAL SMALL COMPANY FUND
    Supplement dated October 29, 2015 to the Prospectus and
    Statement of Additional Information, each dated December 29, 2014
    Important Notice Regarding Change in Investment Policy
    This supplement amends the Oppenheimer International Small Company Fund (the “Fund”) prospectus (the “Prospectus”) and Statement of Additional Information (the “SAI”), each dated December 29, 2014, and is in addition to any other supplements.
    Effective as of December 29, 2015:
    1. The Fund will change its name to “Oppenheimer International Small-Mid Company Fund”. All references to “Oppenheimer International Small Company Fund” in the Prospectus and SAI are replaced by references to “Oppenheimer International Small-Mid Company Fund”....
    ********See link for additional information as there is too much information.********
  • Carne Hedged Equity Fund is liquidating
    http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/315774/000143510915000983/carne_497e.htm
    497 1 carne_497e.htm CARNE 497E
    CARNE HEDGED EQUITY FUND (the “Fund”)
    Supplement dated October 30, 2015 to the Prospectus and the Statement of Additional Information (“SAI”) dated March 1, 2015
    Due to economic and other factors adversely affecting the ability of the Fund to pursue its investment objective, including a recent large redemption and anticipated future redemptions, the Fund’s portfolio is being converted to cash. As a result, the Fund will no longer pursue its investment objective and is no longer accepting purchase orders for Fund shares.
    * * *
    For more information, please contact a Fund customer service representative toll free at (877) 356-9055.
    PLEASE RETAIN FOR FUTURE REFERENCE.
  • RPHYX / RSIVX: New commentary explains mistakes that resulted in credit losses
    I'm inclined to concur with Derf. The comments about investment grade bonds also defaulting did not make me comfortable, especially since they seemed to be telling only half the story.
    Sure there are few AAA rated US corporates now, but that could be because of the sovereign ceiling (generally corporate bonds are not rated more highly than their country's debt). Exceptions are rarely made, and only when it can be shown that a default by the nation would not adversely impact the corporation's ability to service its debt.
    That seems hard to do for financials. The report made a point of saying no financials are AAA rated, yet NY Life gets a AAA rating from three of four NRSRO. Only S&P rates it lower. Guess which ratings firm downgraded US sovereign debt.
    There's a pie chart that purports to show that 25% of defaulted debt was originally rated investment grade. (The accompanying text says 26%.) But without more, one has to wonder whether this is a cooked number. It doesn't show the odds of investment grade debt defaulting vs. other debt defaulting. So it is useless in supporting the thesis presented that ratings are "less than indicative" of future defaults.
    For example, suppose that $25B of debt issued (based on par value) were investment grade, and 1% of that defaulted over its lifetime. Suppose further that $6B of non-investment grade bonds were issued, and 12.5% of that defaulted over its lifetime.
    You'd surely conclude that investment grade vs. non-investment grad was a good indicator of default probability. Yet there would be $1B in defaults: $250M of investment grade, and $750M of junk. So, 25% of the defaults would have been investment grade bonds.
  • RPHYX / RSIVX: New commentary explains mistakes that resulted in credit losses
    http://www.riverparkfunds.com/downloads/News/RiverPark-Cohanzick_3Q15_Shareholder_Letter.pdf
    - RPHYX was hurt by Goodman Networks, a pre-IPO company that the manager thought would be a "money-good" investment until the company's largest customer cut back on orders, and the company cancelled its IPO plans. RPHYX has since reduced its position in the company.
    - RSIVX was hurt by three problems: (i) Goodman Networks, as above, (ii) Verso/NewPage, a bet on a merger between two paper companies that ended up getting dragged out and weakened by regulatory review, and (iii) Hunt Companies, a real estate firm that had promised to get credit ratings for its bonds, but then decided to keep its ratings private. RSIVX has reduced its positions in Goodman and Verso/NewPage, but the manager believes Hunt is still a "money-good" investment and is adding more.
    My quick takeaways:
    - Those who thought the funds' NAV drop was just due to "mark-to-market" pricing problems are going to be disappointed. It seems the manager has thrown in the towel on Goodman (for both) and Verso/NewPage (for RSIVX); they have already sold off at least some of those bonds, so those losses are locked in. For Hunt, the manager is optimistic, but I don't understand the rationale for the company wanting to keep its ratings private.
    - Despite the manager's emphasis on making "money-good" investments, it is pretty clear that there are significant risks involved in the funds' investments. Presumably this is still much less than what a typical high-yield bond fund goes through.
    - Although the funds are relatively diversified (compared to say, ZEOIX), it's a good reminder of how even just one mistake can impact the funds' performance.
    For what it's worth, I continue to hold RPHYX, but have been considering switching or splitting with ZEOIX.
  • it's aliiiiive! The return of Cap Gains Valet
    @David_Snowball - Thanks for the announcement.
    @heezsafe - I appreciate the pat on the back about the additions and site design. I'll share my observations on the site and through my Observer briefs.
    With the complete work of TheShadow, The GainTrain and others, I've tried to make CGV a little better. Besides my Stats and Doghouse articles, I've incorporated additional notes into the CGV database. (For example, if a firm has yet to post their estimates, I'm making a note about when I found their information last season to help set expectations.)
  • Sequoia Defends Valeant + Valeant's Pharmacy Dropped by Express Scripts and CVS
    And yet, Caremark's member site still shows Philidor when you do a search for pharmacies:
    PHILIDOR RX SERVICES LLC
    330 S WARMINSTER RD STE 350
    HATBORO PA 19040
    855-744-5791
    Services and Programs
    Use this as my primary pharmacy
    Price a drug at this pharmacy
  • Tech Mutual Funds Get Spark; T. Rowe Price Global Tech
    Another interesting Tech heavy fund is FOCPX.
    M* profile:
    Portfolio manager Gavin Baker runs Fidelity OTC Portfolio with an unusual mandate: By prospectus, at least 80% of the fund must be invested in stocks listed on the Nasdaq exchange...
    3 yr chart of FOCPX (w/ PRGTX, PRMTX, and USNQX):
    image
  • Tech Mutual Funds Get Spark; T. Rowe Price Global Tech
    Both of these funds trade in pretty much the same arena. I started PRGTX with profits of PRMTX, moved some in PRWCX for preservation and built Global Allocation RPGAX and Global Market Secton Bond PRSNX with PRMTX profits. I also initially started Africa and Middle East TRAMX with a transfer as this is one of the last frontiers to develop.
    Global Technology
    Media 34.50%
    Semiconductors 18.00%
    Software 16.50%
    Information Services 7.10%
    Technology 5.50%
    Miscellaneous 5.50%
    IT Services 3.20%
    Telecom Services 3.10%
    Telecom Equipment 2.40%
    Health Care 2.20%
    Hardware 1.70%
    Media and Communication
    Media 57.70%
    Telecom Services 26.20%
    Software 5.00%
    Technology 2.90%
    Information Services 1.90%
    Telecom Equipment 1.10%
    IT Services 1.00%
    Health Care 0.50%
    Hardware 0.30%
  • Royce Micro-Cap Discovery Fund to liquidate
    Lord knows how the Royce Discovery funds which Neckhov has been the manager of have stuck it out for so long. They have been abysmal for some time. Buy, you know, Chuck Royce will try anything once as long as he can stick a 2.5% ER on it.
  • Time to invest in blue-chip stocks
    "In times of increasing market volatility, one would expect money to flow into those companies best able to: 1) protect their revenue and earnings streams; 2) self-fund operations; 3) pay a competitive dividend yield; and, of course, 4) avoid financial distress. But this year I really haven't seen that flight to quality."
    From: CNBC
  • RiverNorth/DoubleLine Strategic Income Fund to close to new investors
    With 17% in cash, and the fund assets at $2B as of 9/30/15 (which is higher than they said they'd let it get before closing), I'd say yes please to a closure for RNDLX, it's about time.
    For those interested in the financial condition of Oaktree Capital, the subadvisor currently managing ~65% of RNOTX (RiverNorth's high income offering) and significant stakeholder in DoubleLine Capital (the subadvisor of RNDLX), OAK will being holding its earnings conference call today (10/29) at 11AM E.T.
    http://ir.oaktreecapital.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=212597&p=irol-EventDetails&EventId=5206621
    @TheShadow Probably should anticipate a liquidation notice re. RNEOX in the near future. The changes they made to the fund's modus operandi last year appear to have made no difference whatsoever; simply not a vehicle that is attracting any interest.
  • RiverNorth/DoubleLine Strategic Income Fund to close to new investors
    http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1370177/000139834415007116/fp0016523_497.htm
    497 1 fp0016523_497.htm
    RIVERNORTH FUNDS
    RiverNorth/DoubleLine Strategic Income Fund
    (Class I Ticker Symbol: RNSIX)
    (Class R Ticker Symbol: RNDLX)
    SUPPLEMENT DATED OCTOBER 28, 2015
    TO THE PROSPECTUS DATED JANUARY 28, 2015
    Effective after November 13, 2015, the RiverNorth/DoubleLine Strategic Income Fund (the "Fund") is closed to new investors. Unless you fit into one of the investor categories described below, you may not invest in the Fund.
    You may purchase Fund shares through your existing Fund account and reinvest dividends and capital gains in the Fund if you are:
    • A current Fund shareholder as of November 13, 2015;
    • An investor who has previously entered into a letter of intent with the Fund or RiverNorth Capital Management, LLC prior to November 13, 2015;
    • A participant in a qualified defined contribution retirement plan that offers the Fund as an investment option as of November 13, 2015;
    • A wrap fee program or financial advisory firm charging asset-based fees with existing accounts as of November 13, 2015 purchasing shares on behalf of new and existing clients; or
    • A client who maintains a managed account with RiverNorth Capital Management, LLC.
    Except as otherwise noted, these restrictions apply to investments made directly with the RiverNorth/DoubleLine Strategic Income Fund through its Transfer Agent and investments made through financial institutions and/or intermediaries. Once an account is closed, the Fund will not accept additional investments unless you are one of the investors listed above. Investors may be required to demonstrate eligibility to purchase shares of the Fund before the Fund accepts an investment. Management reserves the right to (i) make additional exceptions that, in its judgment, do not adversely affect its ability to manage the Fund, (ii) reject any investment or refuse any exception, including those detailed above, that it believes will adversely affect its ability to manage the Fund, and (iii) close and re-open the Fund to new or existing shareholders at any time.
    Dated: October 28, 2015
    RIVERNORTH FUNDS
    c/o ALPS Fund Services, Inc.
    1290 Broadway, Suite 1100
    1-888-848-7569
    Please retain this supplement with your Prospectus for future reference.
  • Tech Mutual Funds Get Spark; T. Rowe Price Global Tech
    "Tech funds are showing some spunk this year, as tech stocks have sunk less and rallied more since June."
    PRGTX, USSCX, PRMTX, and FSCSX come up on my radar.
    Article:
    top-performing-tech-mutual-funds
  • Industrial (VINAX) and Utilities (GASFX, VUIAX) vs Gas (UNG)
    there was an article in yahoo about china steel industry going bad...may have global economy crash soon??? +25% down?
  • Industrial (VINAX) and Utilities (GASFX, VUIAX) vs Gas (UNG)
    As natural gas (UNG) prices drop further, how will this help or hurt Utilities funds such as GASFX, VUIAX...maybe even industrials (VINAX)?
    Charting UNG, GASFX, VUIAX, VINAX:
    image