Hi
@Dex,
In the cash area of my portfolio, which includes money held in currency and on deposit at two banks, I currently have enough cash to live off of for more than three years at my current spending rate should all other forms of income I receive (social security, a small pension and from investments) come to a halt. If I sold out of the markets today, I anticipate I'd have better than twenty years of worth of cash on hand at my current spending rate. Seems, I recall Ted chose to go to mostly to an all cash position this past summer. For me, being age 67 and my wife age 6
5 I think I am going to stay invested in the capital markets for many years to come. Should my portfolio return what I have projected over the next ten years, as detailed in another blurb and noted below, the returns will most likely be enough to support my lifestyle without a cash drawdown.
For easy reference, below is my post regarding my anticipated portfolio's return. It reads as follows ...
"Hi
@MJG,
Thanks for posting your forecast of six percent average annual gain for stocks over the next ten years. Wonder what bonds are going to do? And, then there is cash?
Here is my thinking ... Like you say, I'll use six per cent for stocks, (my call) four percent for bonds and two percent for cash. With this and based upon my current asset allocation of 2
5% cash, 20% bonds and
55% stocks (which includes the
5% other assets as defined by M* within my portfolio) I can expect between a four to five percent annualized return over the next ten years on my portfolio. Sounds reasonable to me.
So, if I want to make more I will need to continue to employ some spiffs (special investment positions) from time-to-time as I have been doing in this low interest rate environment. Doing this, might add a percent or two. Or, I could take on more risk and raise my allocation to stocks and bonds while lowering my allocation to cash. Think I'll continue to play the spiffs and tweak my asset allocation form time-to-time as to how I am reading the markets. In doing a look back, Morningstar's Portfolio Manager indicates that my current fund possitions have a combinded returned for the past five years of about 8.
5% and for the ten year period about 6.
5%. With this, some adjustment (downward) would needed to be made to account for my cash position in use with the above percentages. So, let's knock a percent off of these percentages to derive at what the portfolio would have returned adjusting it for current cash held. Probally, not exact but close.
Currently, I think from a TTM P/E Ratio (21.
5) stocks are more than fully valued along with most bonds. With this, I am going to stick with being cash heavy for the time being and employ the spiffs.
Thanks again for posting your insight. It is appreciated."
Best regards,
Old_Skeet