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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Laura Geritz (Wasatch) is out

    The biggest issue with the Driehaus fund is the $250K minimum investment/$100K for an IRA but if you're investing that kind of money then I'm also impressed with their approach. Is anyone aware of exceptions being made?
    LLJB - What impresses you about their approach? They seem to fly under the radar, so any info you can provide would be very helpful.
    Thanks!
  • DoubleLine's Gundlach: Gold Remains Best Investment In 'Shaky' World
    Jeff was recommending the gold miners in November, 2012. He rode them all the way down and is now riding them up, but he is still way under water. In November, 2012, GDX was 45.93 and it is now 30.57.
    http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowatchtoday/2012/11/30/gundlach-likes-gold-miners-and-hes-not-alone/
    Of course, you will never read about his bad forecasts in the media, es[pecially from Reuters. They are afraid to point out his bad forecasts because he may not give them interviews any more.
  • DoubleLine's Gundlach: Gold Remains Best Investment In 'Shaky' World
    FYI: Jeffrey Gundlach, the chief executive of DoubleLine Capital, said on Wednesday that gold remains the best investment amid fears of instability in the European Union and prolonged global stagnation, as well as concerns over the effectiveness of central bank policies.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-funds-doubleline-gundlach-idUSKCN0ZM25Z
    (As Of 7/5/16)
    GLD: 27.61% YTD
    SLV: 43.90% YTD
    CEF: 45.65% YTD
  • Laura Geritz (Wasatch) is out
    @claimui
    TD Ameritrade requires 100K for an IRA, the same as Fido, Scottrade, and Schwab.
    DRFRX
    TD Ameritrade says on their site that minimums may differ from what you see because they just take the info from Morningstar. I checked with customer service about taxable accounts and the minimum is $10K so I assume this is one of those case where you need an account to see the real minimums or you have to check with them. I also checked with customer service at Fidelity, where I do have an account and the minimums are the standard $250K/$100K IRA. Schwab's public information says the same but I didn't check with customer service.
    Based on the minimums other than at TD Ameritrade they're not trying to bring in a lot of retail money but I almost wonder whether they're waiting for a time that seems better for Frontier Markets and mostly keeping it for their internal purposes and institutional clients in the meantime.
  • Bill Gross's Investment Outlook For July: Just A Game
    FYI: If only Fed Governors and Presidents understood a little bit more about Monopoly, and a
    tad less about outdated historical models such as the Taylor Rule and the Phillips Curve,
    then our economy and its future prospects might be a little better off.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://17eb94422c7de298ec1b-8601c126654e9663374c173ae837a562.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.com/Documents/umbrella/bill gross/42143 - TL-Bill Gross Investment Outlook_July 2016.pdf
  • Vanguard Attracts Record New Money As Investors Flock To Passive
    FYI: The firm, which has grown to become the world’s largest mutual fund manager by offering low-cost investments, attracted $148 billion in new client money during the first six months of 2016, surpassing its previous first-half record of $140 billion set last year, a spokesman said in an e-mail on Tuesday. In June alone, about $30 billion flooded into the firm’s mutual funds and exchange-traded products
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-05/vanguard-attracts-record-new-money-as-investors-flock-to-passive
  • John Waggoner: Take 5: Oakmark's Bill Nygren Sees Value In Bank Stocks
    FYI: (Click On Article At Top Of Google Search)
    A candid chat with Bill Nygren, who has been manager of the Oakmark Select Fund (OAKLX) since 1996. The fund ranks in the seventh percentile of large-company value funds the past 15 years. Mr. Nygren discusses finding value in today's market, what stocks to avoid, and whether the Chicago Cubs will go to the World Series.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.google.com/#q=Oakmark's+Bill+Nygren+sees+value+in+bank+stocks
  • Laura Geritz (Wasatch) is out
    The biggest issue with the Driehaus fund is the $250K minimum investment/$100K for an IRA but if you're investing that kind of money then I'm also impressed with their approach. Is anyone aware of exceptions being made?
    DRFRX is available on TD Ameritrade for a minimum of $2,000 for an IRA, with no transaction fee. Don't know about regular accounts. Might want to check with other brokerages too.
    MEASX is an interesting option. Almost half of WAFMX is in Asia, if that helps with the comparison.
  • Fund suggestion for my friend's wife
    Thanks everyone for your inputs, deeply appreciated. There are enough money in 529 to support both kids through college. Her house was paid in full when my friend realized that he didn't have enough time left. I recently suggested her to talk to advisor, she did but was hesitate to take that professional advice. Her diseased husband told her to use Vanguard index funds to manage her Portofolia after he is no long around. I am not an index person and would still appreciate your suggestion of various index funds to start. Thanks Ted and I will pass your suggestion to her.
    If she wants advice from Vanguard, the Vanguard Personal Advisors Service will manage her money for 0.3%/year.
    They would put her in the total stock market index, the total international stock market index, total bond market index, total international bond market index, etc etc
  • Fund suggestion for my friend's wife
    Thanks everyone for your inputs, deeply appreciated. There are enough money in 529 to support both kids through college. Her house was paid in full when my friend realized that he didn't have enough time left. I recently suggested her to talk to advisor, she did but was hesitate to take that professional advice. Her diseased husband told her to use Vanguard index funds to manage her Portofolia after he is no long around. I am not an index person and would still appreciate your suggestion of various index funds to start. Thanks Ted and I will pass your suggestion to her.
  • Laura Geritz (Wasatch) is out
    Take a look at DRFRX. Short track record, do have an SMA that goes back a bit farther. Driehaus has a very good process and team. Low assets right now. Nice fit.
    The biggest issue with the Driehaus fund is the $250K minimum investment/$100K for an IRA but if you're investing that kind of money then I'm also impressed with their approach. Is anyone aware of exceptions being made?
    Matthews Asia has a frontier fund, MEASX, that is not heavy on financials, still has a small asset base and has low expenses compared to other frontier funds. The only drawback in my mind is that they're focused on Asia's frontier markets, which have done very well lately, but you're not going to get broad coverage of frontier markets from this fund.
    Harding Loevner also has a fund, HLMOX, which is indeed pretty heavy on financials as claimui pointed out but I think they also have a very good process and a decent team. I think it's worth some research if you're looking for broader exposure.
    I'm holding WAFMX at least until we find out more about how Edgley plans to manage the fund. Hopefully the 2nd quarter commentary will give us some insight into his plans and his thought process. I also own MEASX but not HLMOX, at least so far.
  • Regression to the Mean will Happen
    In flat, overvalued, mean reverting markets, this is where tactical / quantitative processes become useful. Even the use of a strategy as simple as an empirically derived, price / moving average cross heuristic has produced risk managed alpha in the U.S. and Japan markets over a 30+ year sample. As the global environment appears to be mired in deflation, the inverse correlation of bonds to equities have continued in times of uncertainty.
    https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1Sn6BKRCKRU5tensBDFTkJXI3v2wRQ4M1bt8VoIM2Zmc/edit?usp=sharing
    https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1mdon_cto48rvs2_lKWyMWrfqSIh8K0phfe7tThle8qQ/edit?usp=sharing
    https://docs.google.com/document/d/1XwZjcWy7KlSwA7xi0rax7nevIBCtW0Uu4UZFH-Hc1ns/edit?usp=sharing
  • Can someone or many explain this comment from David's July commentary
    @catch22 said
    Flexible and adaptable perhaps do not always fit into a managers mold of what he/she views as "what should be"; versus the real outcomes.
    I suspect most here are really value investors. We want to buy cheap and sell at a higher price, yes? When the investment gears don't turn in the anticipated directions, value can become a sink hole.
    FPACX. Not a sink hole .But certainly stuck in the mud.Mr Romick has consistently believed that Fed Policy has been in uncharted territory and will not end well.Eventually he may be correct,but in the meantime.....
    Morningstar Moderate Target Risk
    Rank in Category Ytd 95 1 Yr 78 3 Yr 77
    http://performance.morningstar.com/fund/performance-return.action?t=FPACX&region=usa&culture=en_US
    Will Brexit spark a much-needed market revaluation?
    Steven Romick
    Co-Portfolio Manager, FPA Crescent Fund
    June 28, 2016
    Even when investing in pockets of value, it doesn’t mean the rest of the world will immediately agree
    with you. That was evident recently with regards to our position in financials. As good of a value as we
    perceive them to be, the market sold them off in the wake of Brexit and that has contributed to our
    equity portfolio declining more than the market in this recent downturn. The financials we own have
    largely U.S. exposure and what business they conduct overseas is broad-based without disproportionate
    exposure to the UK. Nevertheless, their stock prices are volatile, causing our portfolio to do better than
    the market some days but worse on others. What happens on any given day doesn’t matter; what does
    matter is the businesses’ operating results while we own them and where these stocks are trading the
    day we sell them. We don’t know how they will ultimately perform along the way or in the end, but low
    valuations - combined with historically strong balance sheets – give us a margin of safety that will
    hopefully protect our capital and then provide a return on it.
    The Crescent Fund’s (the “Fund”) portfolio of value investments (both equities and debt) should provide
    downside protection in a severe market downturn. The relatively small market price decline since the
    Brexit vote is more market noise than anything else. The Fund’s 36% cash position provides additional
    protection in the portfolio and will be used when the inevitable opportunities arise to purchase good
    companies at cheap prices.
    http://www.fpafunds.com/docs/special-commentaries/brexit-special-commentary-6-28-2016_final.pdf?sfvrsn=2
  • Fund suggestion for my friend's wife
    i think she needs a financial advisor - just picking funds is not enough. someone needs to look at the entire picture. now that she is a sole provider for the tho teenagers, does she have enough life insurance?...she needs to put 2 kids through college while saving for her own retirement. does she have a 529 for each daugther?...
    investments are but one part of the family financial planning. she needs clarity on the whole picture.
  • Robo-advisors
    Hi Kaspa. I invested about a 3rd of my Schwab IRA money in Intelligent Portfolio about 15 months ago. I like the hands off approach, but the jury is still out for me on returns. My robo-portfolio is 62% equity, 28% bonds and 10% money market cash. I put the ETFs in M* to track the portfolio. So far this year it has done really well, +6.7%. But one year returns are a meager 0.5%. FWIW...
  • Regression to the Mean will Happen
    Hi Guys,
    I wish you all a happy and safe Independence Day. I will definitely overeat.
    On recent posts some considerable concern has been expressed over the current length of several zero returns delivered by indices like the S&P 500. I don’t share that concern.
    It is not a rare happening. In a very rough measure, it occurs something like one-third of the time based on long term market history. Not to worry because a regression-to-the-mean is always operative. The data support this observation. Here is a Link to a recent article by excellent financial writer Morgan Housel that reviews that data:
    http://www.fool.com/investing/2016/06/30/when-stocks-give-you-nothing.aspx?source=iaasitlnk0000003
    Housel subtitled his piece: “the long wait”. That’s appropriate. Patience can be severely tested. The quandary for investors is that nobody can forecast how long that wait is and when it will end. But be confident that it will end. Figure 2 in the Housel article illustrates the potential length of that long wait from historical data.
    Nobody likes running in-place, but a regression-to-the-mean will eventually kick-in. Unfortunately, not any expert can predict when that will happen in a reliable, reproducible manner. That’s the nature of the equity marketplace. But as the zero return environment lengthens, the odds of a recovery to the historical average annual returns increases.
    I completely agree with Housel’s observations that patience and a cash reserve are mandatory requisites for successful investing. Incrementally increasing your equity positions during this difficult period will surely not maximize your total end wealth since only precisely picking the market bottoms can do that. But that’s an impossible goal; it can not be done.
    In that sense, investors should be satisficers and not maximizers. There just are too many fund choices and too much uncertainty to ever fully realize maximizer perfection. Any attempt to do so will ultimately end in unhappiness at our failures to accomplish that lofty target. Instead, being satisfied with near Index returns is easily accomplished with little effort and even little time commitment. I practice that discipline.
    The percentage of professional money managers who successfully maximize returns, using an Index as a measure of their success, is grimly low. The evidence is in their dismal performance records.
    Please enjoy the fireworks and the feasting.
    Best Regards.
  • Fund suggestion for my friend's wife
    I agree with @Ted as to the funds he mentioned and KISS. I will add VWENX which is available to Vanguard account holders. This fund is active managed varying from 50-70% in equity. The long term return performance is excellent, with this fund having an expense ratio of .18%. Not knowing the tax status of current or these new monies, one may also consider a Vanguard muni bond fund for some of the monies, if investment taxation could be a problem. Also, if applicable; maximizing a Roth IRA contribution with some of the monies. The above is offered with the presumption that these monies are directed properly towards any and all other financial needs first, as deemed appropriate.
  • Fund suggestion for my friend's wife
    @DavidMMP: I'm sure MFO Members will give you some excellent suggestions, but let's start off with KISS-50% VBTLX-50% VTSAX.
    Regards,
    Ted
  • Surprise ... SPY Up 4.0% & AGG Up 5.5% At Mid-Year
    Yeah, one of the many things I like about Fido FullView (and there are others, e.g. ML) is that it shows total 1y portfolio performance, period, and while I am not positive it is accurate in all respects, it includes anything you tell it to, including other accounts. Humbling when you see it say -1% or +2.6% or whatever, until you remember that it is (should be) reflecting a 30-40-50% cash position on average.
  • Surprise ... SPY Up 4.0% & AGG Up 5.5% At Mid-Year

    I guess in the spirit of full disclosure I am having a bad, a really, really bad year. After a bang up 2014 and 2015, this year I am up 5.58%.
    Perhaps I'm missing something, but with a well allocated portfolio including stocks, bonds and cash, a YTD return of 5.58% is actually pretty good. And frankly, if you could finish the year up 6-8% in this type of environment, I'd say you did well.
    But, that's just me.