FYI: Most mutual-fund managers were more than happy to bid farewell to 2018.
With the S&P 500 index wrapping up the year with the worst December since 1931, and a 6.2% loss for the full year, the average manager overseeing a diversified U.S.-stock fund saw a total return of minus 7.73% in 2018, according to Thomson Reuters Lipper. Nor were international stock funds any refuge: On average, they fell 15.52% for the year.
But amid all that gloom, a handful of managers emerged as big winners, posting double-digit gains for the year.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-best-stock-fund-managers-of-2018-11546830721?mod=article_inline

Zweig ( working with Ned Davis ) was an early pioneer of quantitative analysis. Yet, most analysis since the 1980's has been weak as the main thrust and profit center of finance has been the acquisition of assets under management with associated fees garnered ( ie incentive towards quant analysis with an eye towards generating alpha is way down on the agenda ).
An important premise to keep in mind is to hold equity based assets for longest optimal periods. Once in a great while, a switch to duration assets for a short period may occur ( 20% of the time) . https://tinyurl.com/yadh6tsq
Returns after larg(est) quarterly market losses ( of which 4th quarter 2018 was one), accompanied by a cross of the S&P 500 above its long period moving average ( pending ), has had a stellar track record with above average returns produced over future 1, 2, and 5 year cum returns periods: https://imgur.com/a/Eoj26AS
Zwieg signal may or may not have accompanied these post quarterly loss events.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2019/01/11/government-shutdown-paychecks-hold-thousands-federal-workers/2538807002/?for-guid=238e8284-abd0-e711-b65f-90b11c343abd&utm_source=usatoday-Daily Briefing&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=baseline&utm_term=hero
If they keep working..
They will get a very big check once every settle and gov open again

@MFO Members: Its hard being #1, but someone has to do it !
Regards,
Ted :)

I think it's incredibly unfair of you folks to expect Jo-Jo to present an accurate, well-reasoned and fairly balanced presentation. If Individual #1 isn't required to do that, why pick on one of his acolytes?

@catch22: Why didn't you digest this when I linked it on 1/7/19 ?
Regards,
Ted :)
https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/46760/2018-the-year-in-charts#latest
P.S.Rbrt: I wear size 10 steel toed shoes !
:)

Hello @Junkster & @FD1000: Not seeking to get in the middle of this discussion. But, I did want to make note that Liz Ann Sonders (now with Charles Schwab) use to work for Marty Zweig. During a recent apperance on CNBC she made reference to these two indicators that the two of you have in discussion.
I have linked her CNBC appearance below. It is titled "Uncertainties remain, but the recent rally is decent." Hope you enjoy.
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2019/01/09/uncertainties-remain-recent-market-rally-decent-liz-ann-sonders.html

Charts? You really don’t know my background. I have written extensively about my distaste for charts. I spun my wheels seemingly forever until I decided to throw away the charts and that turned my trading completely around. To originally build my nest egg I daytradev stock index futures and not once looked at a chart. This would be a discussion for another time? You sure have some strong opinions about trading. I thought your background and career was IT.
We agree on the indicator gurus and another area I have written about extensively. Back in the day I knew most all of them and they all shared one thing in common. None of them were successful traders - not one. They simply pandered ultra expensive and worthless trading systems, etc. The stories I could tell about some of the Pretenders in that field.
You can edit real easily here. You can see a small wheel right top of your post. Click on thst and you see dee “edit”
By the way as you can read below where I am mentioned, my favorite trading book of all time was the one by Nicolas Darvas. Zweig’s is a distance third or fourth.
http://ezinearticles.com/?Was-Nicolas-Darvas-One-of-the-Greatest-Traders-Ever?&id=4316551

As I pointed in my first post I like to include links to prove my points and why I included a chart. Please include charts to support yours.
I'm not going to buy his book because I can find his ideas on the web + I'm looking for indicators that work in the next day-one week. Over the years I read of several indicators/"gurus" and proved they were all wrong or can be off by months and years. (link)https://socialize.morningstar.com/NewSocialize/forums/p/379703/3896435.aspx#3896435
It looks pretty reasonable that a market that went down over 10% will be up close to that in the next several months.
Since I can't change things that I posted I will not post here very much because I may make a mistake and/or want to change my narrative.
You are welcome to post on M*, any comment is welcome and we can discuss anything, I don't understand your comment "This board does not allow lively discussions because of the manner in which it is monitored." I do that all the time.

Interesting that 2018 was the only year CASH WAS KING in the past 20 years. Before 2018, it came in 3rd a few times, but never 1st or 2nd.

FD , Hope to see you begin posting here. But beware some of your adversaries such as the Gatorbyters and Stillers of the world would never have their posts deleted here. And posting after the fact is a big no no here. And also be prepared to validate yourself and claims. I made a comment awhile back here about my trading versus if I had just been a buy and holder. The end result is I had to send someone all my 1040s from the early 90s to last year as well as my current brokerage statement. But I am use to that. This business is filled with crooks, con men, charlatans and other Pretenders who can do the talk but can never do the walk. I am going to post on that very topic here soon.
I would like to see your feedback on Zweig but please purchase his book. What do you mean support his claims? His book is a Wall Street classic. Are you insinuating his test results are fabricated or incorrect?
You are shooting the messenger here. I am simply reporting on his indicators in his book and where he has the dates of all the signals and where the market was 3, 6, and 12 months later.
What struck me is how rare it is when BOTH signals kick in at the same time as they just recently have. According to Zweig we are off to the races now because of this out of the ordinary momentum and the market won’t look back. We won’t have to wait long to see if Zweig still has it or if the markets are so different now as to make them ineffectual. They have never kicked in during a government shutdown so I think that could be the fatal flaw if it drags on for a lengthy period.
Again, welcome to the forum.

Hi Junkster, this is a continuation of our discussion.
My last post had a link to NYSE up/down volume. I don't know how to save charts on this site but here it is
If you don't mind supply links to support Zweig claims, just like I did..
Junkster: In fairness to Zweig his signal was based on two 9 to 1 days within 3 months. He noted in his book the failure of singular 9 to 1 days. More importantly it is also based on NYSE advance/decline volume and not the S@P - a huge and significant difference. This latest signal meets the criteria so we shall see if it has any accuracy. The point is BOTH of his momentum indicators came into play at the same time- a rarity. If this fails I would put much less emphasis on his indicators.
Edit. To quote myself on indicators. “ They should never be used as precise, absolute, black and white trading signals. Indicators are best used as clues or hints to future price action. Thus interpreting indicators is more art than a science........ What counts in trading is what the market is saying, not the indicators”
FD1000: There's is a small difference in principle between NYSE to SP500.
We had it twice or more in 2009, 2010, 2011 and didn't have it 2012-2019. This means that if you waited for the signal of 2 days within 3 months it never came.
Basically, the facts still stand, you get 1 and more every time the SP500 goes down over 10%...chart...and it's reasonable. After a 10% correction, you will get days of huge up/down volume.
So, a rule of thumb might be, every time the SP500 goes down more than 10% rebalance...or...even simpler, every time your stocks to bond is 5% off sync --> rebalance.
For my trades I look for indicators that tell me on a specific day when to buy and MACD is pretty accurate.

Here’s a detailed study of 2018. https://pensionpartners.com/2018-the-year-in-charts/
“II. Bear Markets and Recessions
Does a 20% decline in stocks mean a recession is coming? That’s the question everyone seems to be asking today.
Looking back at history, the answer is far from clear. This is now the 21st Bear Market since 1929. Of the previous 20, only 11 were associated with a recession (55% of the time).”
“Only 3 country ETFs finished positive: Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and New Zealand. How many strategists had Qatar on their list of top picks for 2018?”
“XI. Happy New Year
In 2019, I predict one thing and one thing only: you will see many more surprises. That is the nature of markets.”

Hope.
Dedication.
Fear of being fired or otherwise losing their jobs.
None of which individual #1 knows or cares about.

Adam Smith's invisible hand works in mysterious ways. And, the more sophisticated we become, the more it enjoys the challenge of the game!

According to the "Delusions" article by Josh Brown linked yesterday I'd have to agree with you MJG in saying not so much.
https://thereformedbroker.com/2019/01/09/delusions/

You're absolutely right JoJo. You picked out arguably the highest paid profession in the list of 800,000 government employees, comprising 1.88% of those affected to try and make your point and nailed it. Now that you've vilified those scumbags what of the other 98+%? While you're working on that we'll make arrangements for all them air traffic controllers to move to more affordable locations. All them fancy cities with their high costs of living don't need air traffic controller employees anyway.

SMMFH. And you think millenials are entitled...

If you're living paycheck to paycheck on $100k, you are living outside of your means. How can you possibly deny that?

So the government shutdown and payless paydays signify God’s Wrath inflicted upon those who haven’t practiced sound financial management?
(Never mind the 800+ credit scores, home ownership or substantial tax-sheltered retirement accounts these folks may have garnered over a lifetime of work. They should have anticipated this monster.)

You're absolutely right JoJo. You picked out arguably the highest paid profession in the list of 800,000 government employees, comprising 1.88% of those affected ...

Just hope you’re not being guided into LGA some rainy windy night by one of those unpaid, stressed-out and hungry ATCs ...

You're absolutely right JoJo. You picked out arguably the highest paid profession in the list of 800,000 government employees, comprising 1.88% of those affected to try and make your point and nailed it. Now that you've vilified those scumbags what of the other 98+%? While you're working on that we'll make arrangements for all them air traffic controllers to move to more affordable locations. All them fancy cities with their high costs of living don't need air traffic controller employees anyway.

Whatev. Who ever denied that lots live outside their means? Not what we're talking about. .

Had to get back in on this. It is all connected so it is what we are talking about. If you're living paycheck to paycheck on $100k, you are living outside of your means. How can you possibly deny that? There are plenty of people that get by on half that. Maybe you shouldn't have a $500k home and Tesla.