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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Portfolio changes for retirement
    Mike,You are correct the preservation fund is a GIC, earning around 1.7% for the year so far.
  • Where To Invest $10,000 Right Now
    In the same laconic style as PK, I wrote: It [public debt] does not create, but amplifies, income inequality."
    The findings summary of the paper you cited reads: "The author finds that the composition of public debt is consistently a significant determinant of income inequality: the domestic share of public debt is regressive and significant across all specifications [even controlling for other factors]."
    Sounds about the same. What appears to be an earlier (2011) version of the paper likewise finds evidence that "the domestic share of public debt is associated with higher levels of the Gini coefficient".
    Have you read the full paper? I'm disinclined to rent it for 24 hours (even for $4) when my time is limited.
    Right now I'm too busy reading a paper for an urban economics class I'm taking. That paper looks at how income level affects where people live in urban environments. And I've been having out-of-class exchanges with the teacher on different methods of calculating environmental footprints (think sustainable cities).
  • SEMPX
    Thank you to all for responding. I am going to consider EIXIX.
    Please note most of its outsized YTD returns in EIXIX occurred the first four months of its existence. The past 6 months it has been mediocre at best compared to IOFIX among others. You seem to like the non agencies. You might want to check out DPFNX. It gets no mention but a real steady eddy in the non agency sector. As detailed in the past, I paired it with IOFIX in 2017 and part of 2018. Haven’t been in it this year but that may change soon.
  • Where To Invest $10,000 Right Now
    Twitter is useful for the lay readers of many researchers since there is almost always elaborated, non-laconic, material to read elsewhere.
    This, about gov debts and income inequality, looks pertinent, brought to my attention by a family member:
    https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-01-2014-0015/full/html
    (Saez and others are clear about other, non-gov debt: 'This explosion in debt means effectively that the bottom 90% has been saving 0% of their income over the last 30 years.'
    So ... in what direction is your own mind made up? What, again, do you yourself advocate?
  • Where To Invest $10,000 Right Now
    "It's not just that with interest rates below growth rates, debt won't snowball."
    Regardless of how much debt is added outside of interest? Didn't he say before: "unless the government runs large primary deficits"? I wish he'd make up his mind.
    "it doesn't reduce the future income of society as a whole"
    What about future per capita income? GDP may have a faster growth rate than interest (especially as we approach negative rates), but still not as fast as population growth. Will we all become poorer together? Likely not, as he acknowledges: it creates claims by one part of the population on another part ... This can create some problems." It does not create, but amplifies, income inequality.
    "Emissions will stay in the atmosphere for generations, raising global temperatures all the while."
    Some will, like CO₂, some won't like CH₄. Methane has 21x the impact of carbon dioxide, but that impact is front loaded. It is not "raising global temperatures all the while", just long enough to "damage our future ... irrevocably." Persistence is secondary.
    There's a reason why I pay no attention to twitter with its typical laconic tweets.
  • Portfolio changes for retirement
    I had my 401 set up as you suggest until recently.
    The question I asked was:
    ''Which funds of my 401 choices would you leave money in the next 6 months.''
  • Portfolio changes for retirement
    Say that you like fund A more than fund B in all market environments. If you were starting with $5K, it seems pretty clear that you'd invest that money in A rather than B.
    Now say you started with $6K in fund B, and because of market declines it's worth $5K. "Typically I would hold till things came back up."
    What's the difference? Whether you have $5K in cash or $5K in fund B, you've got $5K to invest - either put it/leave it in fund B, or invest it/move it to fund A. Many people have a mindset that they don't want to "lock in" a loss. But that $1K loss above is a sunk cost. It's not a question of "recouping" the loss, but where that current $5K would be put to best use.
    I agree with Skeet that you would be well off thinking about your long term asset allocation, setting up your portfolio that way, and when you roll over your account, to maintain your target allocation. Though you might use different and possibly better funds.
  • Fisher Investments Launches Diversity Task Force
    Another spin on sin investments. Some people would claim that it makes no difference if Fisher is a misogynist, a racist or even a white supremacist, if he is a brilliant investor.
    This is a little different than a similar person running a company you want to invest in.
    Behavior and comments like this usually do hurt the performance of a company ( ie UBER WEWORK) but I am not sure it will make a lot of difference to Fisher's client's returns, as most of them are separate accounts, as I understand his investment process. Consequently if he looses 10% of AUM in a week it will have less of an impact on the stocks in other's portfolios as only those accounts will be liquidated. If FIsher holds a large % of some individual position it might matter.
    I have never wanted to invest with someone whose ego is so domineering and who presents what seem to be schemes that no one else has thought of. Nor have I wanted to contribute, even in a small way, to the self aggrandizement and massive fortune of such an egotist.
    But that is my personal opinion and some other people who have sent him 1000 Billion Dollars obviously feel different.
    It would be interesting to see what others think, especially people who have used his firm in the past.
  • SEMPX
    I am looking for some punch over my MM funds with minimum risk. I am not too happy with RPHYX and RSIVX.
    You might look at the other fund in the Semper stable too: SEMRX/SEMIX. Mostly mortgages, very short duration (0.4), mostly investment grade, current distribution yield ~ 3%, avg. price a shade over par, 5* in M*'s ultrashort bond category.
    NAV risk is pretty well contained in the current environment: NAV's varied in a very narrow range (9.88-9.90) since April 15, per Yahoo historic price tables.
    Again, it's mostly floating rate, 74% per the current fact sheet.
    Good luck out there -- AJ
    P.S. I've been thinking of dumping one of the rate-sensitive funds I own now and partially replacing it with SEMRX next time there's a dip in T rates. I don't think holding a slug of intermediate and long duration is going to be the winner it was for a while there, and if another big rate dive does materialize, it's easy enough to rent exposure thru TLT or IEF.
  • Ben Carlson & Michael Batnick: Where Have All The Stock Market Wizards Gone?: Video Presentation
    FYI: Market Wizards by Jack Schwager was first published in 1993. The book profiled some of the world’s top traders, all of whom had enviable long-term track records.
    The list included well-known traders and hedge fund managers such as Bruce Kovner, Paul Tudor Jones, Ed Seykota, Michael Steinhardt, William O’Neill, and Richard Dennis. Schwager does a nice job in the book focusing not only on the performance of these traders but also the psychology behind their process.
    Schwager went onto write a series of these books detailing other successful traders and investors. The market wizard series became a trader’s bible of sorts.
    On this week’s podcast Michael and I discussed why it would be much harder to write such a book today:
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2019/10/where-have-all-the-stock-market-wizards-gone/
  • Barry Ritholtz's Masters In Business: Guest: Binyamin Appelbaum, NYT: Monetary Policy Podcast
    FYI: Bloomberg Opinion columnist Barry Ritholtz interviews Binyamin Appelbaum, the lead business and economics writer on the New York Times editorial board. He was previously a Washington correspondent for the Times, covering the Federal Reserve and other aspects of economic policy. His book “The Economists’ Hour: False Prophets, Free Markets and the Fracture of Society” was released in August.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/audio/2019-10-11/binyamin-appelbaum-discusses-monetary-policy-podcast
  • Where To Invest $10,000 Right Now
    Vanguard Prime Money Market. At least while you are thinking about it. I'm so glad I did that while I was thinking about it. I'm still thinking.
    I thought about this 10 times in the last 3 years. Every time my answer was VMMXX. Looking at my return, I'm quite happy.
  • Portfolio changes for retirement
    No apologies needed. I do far better with investments at Fidelity and Vanguard where I can pick my MF's vs. the few choices in my 401. Looking forward to that rollover.
  • Portfolio changes for retirement
    the x-ray is what I am invested in not what options I have in my 401. A small cap is an option which I was invested in until recently.
  • Portfolio changes for retirement
    More info would be appreciated. Age, will you have enough income from SS & pension, plus other income that you wouldn't need to drawn on 401-k at this time?
    Derf
  • Portfolio changes for retirement
    I am retiring at end of March, 2020. Fund choices in workplace 401 are few. I am slowly exiting existing positions in order to preserve principal. Once I retire I will move monies somewhere where my options are more suitable for a someone in retirement. My question is, Which funds of my 401 choices would you leave money in the next 6 months.
    AMRMX, VFINX, VIGRX, OAKBX, OAKIX, FSCCX, VMVAX, PTTRX, ODMAX and a preservation trust fund.
  • SEMPX
    SEMPX was a big part of my portfolio in 2018 but none in 2019. YTD at 3.8% is not good when many made a lot more. Look at direct securitized rivals such as IOFIX,EIXIX and VCFAX. I know SEMPX has low duration and very low SD. SEMPX is pretty good as a cash sub for investors who understand its higher risk/volatility. T
    The lowest SD in this group is SEMPX and then VCFAX which is more diversified.
    If you want more performance with higher SD then IOFIX,EIXIX(new fund with very small AUM).
    BTW, from their last top (1-2 weeks ago) IOFIX,EIXIX held better than SEMPX,VCFAX.
  • Billionaire Ken Fisher Blasted Online After Offensive Comments At Closed-Door Fireside Chat
    Sorry - I started a fire fight. My main thought was that around 1974 on WALLSTREET WEEK program they remarked about Fisher Investments from OP that was doing a disservice to investors - just looking for perspective on the subject.