The Breakfast Briefing: U.S. Stock Futures Point To A Christmas Eve Bounce For Battered Equities FYI: (Market's Close At
1:00 PM EST.)
U.S. stock futures rose Monday, indicating markets could bounce in a holiday-shortened session after the worst week of trading since the financial crisis of 2008.
Dow Jones Industrial Average futures YMH9, +0.36% rose
125 points, or 0.6%, to 22,533, while S&P 500 futures ESH9, +0.4
1% gained
15 points, or 0.6%, to 2,429.25. Nasdaq-
100 NQH9, +0.60% futures rose 38.75 points, or 0.6%, to 6,
102.
On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Averages DJIA, -
1.8
1% fell 4
14.23 points, or
1.8%, to 22,445.37, while the S&P 500 index SPX, -2.06% fell 50.84 points, or 2.
1%, to 2,4
16.58. The Nasdaq Composite Index COMP, -2.99% COMP, -2.99% traded down
195.4
1 points, or 3%, to 6,332.99.
The Nasdaq officially entered bear market territory Friday, down 2
1.9% from its Aug. 3
1 highs. That’s as the S&P and the Dow inch closer to bear market territory, with the S&P off
17.5% from its Sept. 20 highs, and the Dow down
16.3% from an Oct. 3 high.
The weekly performances for the Dow — off 6.9% — and the Nasdaq — down 8.4% — were the worst since 2008. The S&P fell 7.
1% for its worst weekly showing since 20
11. Friday’s volumes were the heaviest since August 20
11.
Regards,
Ted
WSJ:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/global-stocks-slip-amid-treasury-department-comments-11545642300Bloomberg:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-23/asian-stocks-set-to-slip-yen-up-as-caution-reigns-markets-wrap?srnd=premiumMarketWatch:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stock-futures-point-to-a-christmas-eve-bounce-for-battered-equities-2018-12-24/printIBD:
https://www.investors.com/market-trend/stock-market-today/dow-jones-futures-bear-market-trump-government-shutdown-fed-chairman-powell/Reuters:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks/index-futures-little-changed-ahead-of-holiday-shortened-week-idUSKCN1OM0M7CNBC:
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/24/us-stock-futures-fall-slightly-as-the-dow-attempts-to-rebound-from-its-worst-week-in-a-decade.htmlEurope:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-stocks/european-shares-dip-in-thin-holiday-trade-idUSKCN1ON0CBAsia:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/asian-markets-mostly-lower-as-investors-await-wall-streets-next-move-2018-12-23/printBonds:
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/21/bonds-us-treasury-yields-continue-climb-ahead-of-auctions.htmlCurrencies:
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/24/forex-markets-japanese-yen-swiss-franc-us-politics-in-focus.htmlOil:
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/24/oil-markets-global-crude-supply-in-focus.htmlGold:
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/24/gold-markets-us-politics-dollar-in-focus.htmlCurrent Futures:
https://finviz.com/futures.ashx
GMO White Paper: The Late Cycle Lament: The Dual Economy, Minsky Moments, And Other Concerns
>> I would be on suicide watch if I was down 4.6% YTD (or for that matter 1% or 2%).
So what are you in to keep you alive with 1% or 2% drops,
and more important why are you on any investment forum in the first place?
The $12 is for your PDP, right? (rx plan)
GMO White Paper: The Late Cycle Lament: The Dual Economy, Minsky Moments, And Other Concerns I would be on suicide watch if I was down 4.6% YTD (or for that matter 1% or 2%). and I have definitely been around the block a few times.
I appreciate the sentiment. Different situations require different approaches. But I’m wondering if, perhaps, we’ve been around
“different blocks” over our lifetimes? I’ve always associated increased risk with increased potential reward. Over my 50 years investing (my “block”, so to speak), I’ve witnessed the following:
A
22.6% one-day
drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (
1987).
An
86% one-year
increase in the NASDAQ (
1999).
A
50% decline in the NASDAQ the following year.
A
50% drop in the S&P in fewer than 2 years (2007-‘09).
The
“halving” of home values across large portions of the U.S. over just 3 or 4 years (2007-
10)
Japan’s Nikkei 225 topping out @
39,000 (
1989) & bottoming @
7,055 20 years later.
Gasoline at
16-cents a gallon - and at
$5.00 a gallon.
The price of gold @
$35 and @
$1600.A United States
prime lending rate of
22% (
1983) and
3% (20
15)
Mortgage rates as high as
15-20% and as low as
3%.
New full-sized American autos priced at
$3,000 (
1970) / new pickups priced at
$70,000 (today).
The Enron (energy) fiasco, Michael Milken and junk bonds, Richard Strong and mutual funds, and Bernard Madoff with his ponzi scheme.
The Vietnam War, the 9-
11 attacks, the impeachment of two Presidents and attempted assassination of two others.
In short, stuff happens. No one should ever put money at risk in the markets that they can’t afford to (or aren’t willing to) lose.
YAFFX is Shining Again During The Current Downturn What makes for a good fund for staying invested through a downturn? YAFFX appears to be working its magic again during the current pullback.
Here is how it has fared this fall:
Fall of 2018And here is how it fared during and following the 2008 to 2009 market decline:
2008 to 2009 DownturnYAFFX had 24% in cash as of 9/30. So, there were plenty of $'s on the sidelines to put to work when valuations become more favorable. This might not be a bad pick for someone who wants to stay invested but is concerned about the direction of the U.S. stock market going into 20
19.
Sources state that, Trump is asking advisers if can fire Fed. Chair Powell.....
Sources state that, Trump is asking advisers if can fire Fed. Chair Powell..... Yes
@Old_skeet. We should be more like China in the
1300's trying to keep out invaders.
You think I should be ashamed????
To show blind support to a bully, a want-to-be dictator who shows admiration for other dictators, one who runs our countries business as if he were a mafia godfather destroying anyone who has a differing opinion (RIP John McCain), who has attempted to silence and destroy the unofficial 4th branch of this Democracy - the press, who has tried to do the same with the Supreme Court (thanks for speaking up Mr. Roberts) who likely lead efforts of treason and jeopardized his own family members into doing the same in order to get elected, who broke finance laws in order to get elected, who can't keep decent people on his staff as they flock to the exits under the chaos of his leadership, who is a liar and an unethical cheat, one who demoralizes the FBI and CIA in an effort to divert criminal facts from landing on him, who has made enemies of our long standing global friendships, who backs rogue leaders who murder their own people, who has destroyed a health care system out of spite for his predecessor, who jeopardized the worlds environmental future for the same reason, who now is putting the economy into recession with bone headed moves he now wants to blame on others... This has made America great again? Absurd.
Hell, this guy has even given witches a bad name.
Nope, I could never blindly support a man like that. You apparently can as long as you get your wall, so shame on you.
Sources state that, Trump is asking advisers if can fire Fed. Chair Powell..... After all China has "The Great Wall of China." Seems we need a wall as well.
If Skeet is implying that this administration belongs somewhere in the
14th to
17th centuries, I agree wholeheartedly.
GMO White Paper: The Late Cycle Lament: The Dual Economy, Minsky Moments, And Other Concerns Dark humor.
My math shows the S&P off 17.5% since its high in late summer. Not cheap - but “cheaper” than during the most recent euphoria. To me that implies valuations are heading in the “right” direction. I’m most curious when the report was actually penned. Dated December, 2018 - but likely drafted sometime in November before the steepest losses of the current bear market. The 15+% YTD drop as of today (much greater in some segments) might have been enough to mitigate the paper’s bear case.
If I’m reading GMO’s “Executive Summary” correctly, it is suggesting “0” exposure to U.S. equities. I’ve been slanting more towards global equities (and currencies) due to the increasingly unstable and chaotiic U.S. political / governmental structure. Certainly bears consideration.
However, the report makes one wonder: Whatever happened to the diversified portfolio - long hearlded as the safest, steadiest approach to investing? Throwing all your marbles into one basket or another is one way to garner outsized reward - if you happen to get it right. But it also opens the door to huge losses if you’re wrong or decide to exit when the pain becomes greater than you can bear.
How bad are things? Price’s TRRIX, a well diversified conservative balanced fund targeted toward retired individuals and having near 60% exposure to fixed income, was off only 4.6% YTD. Their slightly more aggressive TRRFX - targeted towards those near retirement was off a bit less. For those who have been around the block a few times, these are not staggering losses or something one should lose much sleep over.
I would be on suicide watch if I was down 4.6% YTD (or for that matter
1% or 2%). and I have definitely been around the block a few times. My nest egg is about all I have. No pension and minimal SS benefits of only $
1076 monthly of which they deduct $
189 for my Part B premium. And now next year they are deducting another $
12.40 for something I don’t quite understand. So $874.60 next year is all I will receive. So I have no choice but to live by two rules. - #
1 Don’t lose and # 2 Don’t forget Rule #
1.
GMO White Paper: The Late Cycle Lament: The Dual Economy, Minsky Moments, And Other Concerns Dark humor.
My math shows the S&P off 17.5% since its high in late summer. Not cheap - but “cheaper” than during the most recent euphoria. To me that implies valuations are heading in the “right” direction. I’m most curious when the report was actually penned. Dated December, 2018 - but likely drafted sometime in November before the steepest losses of the current bear market. The 15+% YTD drop as of today (much greater in some segments) might have been enough to mitigate the paper’s bear case.
If I’m reading GMO’s “Executive Summary” correctly, it is suggesting “0” exposure to U.S. equities. I’ve been slanting more towards global equities (and currencies) due to the increasingly unstable and chaotiic U.S. political / governmental structure. Certainly bears consideration.
However, the report makes one wonder: Whatever happened to the diversified portfolio - long hearlded as the safest, steadiest approach to investing? Throwing all your marbles into one basket or another is one way to garner outsized reward - if you happen to get it right. But it also opens the door to huge losses if you’re wrong or decide to exit when the pain becomes greater than you can bear.
How bad are things? Price’s TRRIX, a well diversified conservative balanced fund targeted toward retired individuals and having near 60% exposure to fixed income, was off only 4.6% YTD. Their slightly more aggressive TRRFX - targeted towards those near retirement was off a bit less. For those who have been around the block a few times, these are not staggering losses or something one should lose much sleep over.
Sources state that, Trump is asking advisers if can fire Fed. Chair Powell..... . There may be hell to pay when Joe and Jodie 6-pack get their 401k statements at year’s end. There go 3-5% of his stalwart 38%.
That's an excellent point. Approval ratings are always tied to stock/economic performance.
And if unemployment spikes next year, then lookout below!
Sources state that, Trump is asking advisers if can fire Fed. Chair Powell..... Yeah - I heard that last evening. Thought about posting it. You hear a lot about
“Individual 1“ nowadays. Hard to tell what’s true. What’s real.
I hope Janet Yellen has an unlisted number. That’s the last place she’d want to be. (Don’t answer the phone if it rings Janet!) Powell looks as if he’s workin on a big-time ulcer. Bet he’d rather be anywhere else.
Imagine the reverberations among the world’s central banks, financial centers and in the currency markets if he should fire Powell or force his resignation. Gold would go bananas (tip).
At least it would be a diversion from Russia collusion and Mueller issues for lil Don.
More likely, I think, the Syria game is intended as
a diversion away from the dismal stock market. While I’m at it - commodities and bonds haven’t exactly shone lately either. The big winners are folks like Fleckenstein (Maybe Dalio?) who have been shorting tech. Not a lot else working. There may be
hell to pay when Joe and Jodie 6-pack get their 40
1k statements at year’s end. There go 3-5% of his stalwart 38.
