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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • AMG Yacktman Fund and AMG Yacktman Focused Fund to reopen to new investors
    http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1089951/000119312515219331/d940841d497.htm
    497 1 d940841d497.htm AMG FUNDS
    Filed pursuant to 497(e)
    File Nos. 333-84639 and 811-09521
    AMG FUNDS
    AMG YACKTMAN FUND
    AMG YACKTMAN FOCUSED FUND
    Supplement dated June 10, 2015
    to the Statement of Additional Information dated May 1, 2015
    The following information supplements and supersedes any information to the contrary relating to AMG Yacktman Fund and AMG Yacktman Focused Fund (the “Funds”), each a series of AMG Funds, contained in the Funds’ Statement of Additional Information, dated May 1, 2015.
    Effective June 22, 2015, the Funds will reopen to new investors.
    Effective June 22, 2015, the Statement of Additional Information is hereby amended as follows:
    With respect to the section “General Information”, the third paragraph is hereby deleted in its entirety.
    PLEASE KEEP THIS SUPPLEMENT FOR FUTURE REFERENCE
    ST302
  • Bill Gross’ Big New Yield Idea: Mexico Bonds
    FYI: Bond guru Bill Gross was on CNBC just now talking up Mexican inflation-indexed bonds.
    The case: Mexican inflation-indexed bonds yield about 3%, compared to the 0.5% yield on U.S. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), and that is an unjustifiably wide spread, he said. Moreover, the Mexican peso, which has weakened by about 25% from highs, against the dollar, could rebound, Gross added. That exchange-rate risk may benefit U.S. investors
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://blogs.barrons.com/emergingmarketsdaily/2015/06/10/bill-gross-big-new-yield-idea-mexico-bonds/tab/print/
  • Velocity of M2 Money Stock
    Also note that the chart does not represent the total amount of the M2 money supply, but rather how fast that supply circulates from one holder to another. It is therefore an indirect indicator of general economic activity.
    from Wickipedia:
    It is the number of times one dollar is spent to buy goods and services per unit of time. Alternatively and less frequently, it can refer to the transactions velocity of money, which is the frequency with which the average unit of currency is used in any kind of transaction in which it changes possession—not only the purchase of newly produced goods, but also the purchase of financial assets and other items.
  • TLT Downtrend Emerges
    FYI: After surging 36% from early 2014 through early 2015, the iShares 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TLT) is now down 16%+ from its high reached at the end of January.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.bespokepremium.com/think-big-blog/tlt-downtrend-emerges/
    M* Snapshot TLT: http://www.morningstar.com/etfs/ARCX/TLT/quote.html
    TLT Is Unranked In The (TF) ETF Category By U.S. News & World Report:
    http://money.usnews.com/funds/etfs/us-treasury-funds/ishares-20+-year-treasury-bond-etf/tlt
  • BrightScope Fund Pages - Open Access [Hattip MutualFundWire.com]
    Tuesday, June 09, 2015: The BrightScope Bros Take On M*
    Reported by Neil Anderson, Managing Editor
    LINK: http://www.mfwire.com/article.asp?template=article&wireid=2&storyID=51964&bhcp=1
    [Information on funds and a new advert platform with which to reach interested readers...]
    "A data specialist known for its public databases of FAs and 401(k) plans is tackling another piece of the business: mutual funds... "
    "This morning ... BrightScope is launching its public, open-access Fund Pages database, giving the public ... the ability to drill down and look at data on a specific mutual fund companies, as well as on their mutual funds ..."
    [more]
  • Any Comments on Raymond James?
    Just IMO & confirm the following with any Firm you inquire to want to Hire:
    First of all as for buying any Ins. Products? Get at least a 2nd and 3rd Opinon, preferably from your own Ins. Agent and be very skeptical .. They are the #2 most Profitable Sales Item for Businesses. many pay 10% Commission to the Agent selling them.. and another 1% yr thereafter.. Thus why they push them so much ! I tell them, If I want an Insurance agent I'll use the one I have for over 20+ yrs thank you..
    After Serving the Financial Industry ( and Several Firms , Including RJ ) thru my Limo business in Both Chicao and Boston for over 30 yrs and now Retired..
    1- Understand, if they are a Franchise Business that like other Franchises, are Controlled and guided by the Franchisor ( Corp Office) and while may give individual Offices/Franchises some leaway, so that Your Investing your $ into Individual running is, at best 33% True, the other 66% is Controled by what Corp. Says they have to follow..
    2- They are no Different in running their franchise type Office any Differently that a Mutual Fund store or EJ, etc.. They all have guidelines to adhear too by " Corporate".. and Depending on your account size, you may get a new Apprentice to one of the Senior Partners running that Office/Franchise.. but, all being Supervised by The Owenrs & Corporate..
    3-Your 'Assigned Advisor Will Come and Go , Don't expect them to be with you ForeverMore.. and depending on your Account Size, their Replacement can be one of the Senior to New staff taking your account over, but again, Under the Guidence of the Franchise Owner(s) and 'Corporate'..
    4- and you would be wise to be Frank with them, upfront and in informing them, while you have to disclose All your Assets to Determine your Investing plans, your only going to give them either (a) Their Min. Amt. Required to Open an Account or (b) a max of 25%, whichever is less for at least the 1st 3-5 yrs and/or until They Prove themselves Worthy to trust them with More of your hard Earned $.. " Talk is cheap, actions tell you who they really are and only time will prove that, right? "
    5- As for these Message Board, always expect that at least 75% or more advisors have good intentions and are very Experienced and Manage their Own $ and don't use WMF's and thus have No Knowledge of what they could have Been & having one do at least 50% of their Decisions..
    And , Like you do when evaluating Mutual Funds & Investment Mgmtn. Firms, unless they are willing to Share where their $ has been for the past 7,10 & 15 yrs to back themselves Up?
    I'd be very skeptical of following their Suggestions and Advice where to Put your $..
    DYOR and then Get In Person Advice from people you Know that have been as or more Successfull doing what you have and want to do , then wait at least 3 mos., before Investing or making any changes with your $ .
    6-Personally? I WOULD Recommend RJ if at least 1 of the Min of 3 WMF you want to Ck into and be honest with them all upfront .. of what your doing, ( Comparison Shopping)
    and if you have Portfolio's? Bring or send them copies of their history and performance to Let them Know your not Some Rookie at this investing Game.. as well as Informing them your Law Firm that does Family ( & Co.) Business and a CPA firm that does your Taxes and other things will also have to sign off using them as well..
    Do you have a Law Firm and CPA firm ? If not? Why not? my CPA firm I've used for over 20+ yrs ( and Now in Retirement ) ave about $500 yr to do my taxes..= Chump change and never been Audited and to me, that is my #1 Priority doing taxes..( I've Been audited in my early yrs in my business and its a Nightmare! )
    If the CPA Firm you use has a Good Reputation with IRS? It can make a Big Difference..
    Inclosing> I've Owned some of RJ Stock for yrs now and Only because, they were ( and still are) the Financial firm of the Owners of the Limo Co. I was with .. Then again, they Opened up an account with them to get them as a Co. Client to serve them and other Wealthy Clients & Co.'s they have.. And that stock has been Free $ to me for yrs and the only reason I kept it and let it ride on its own.. I think its about 5% of my Tot Assets as of last yr.. And Opptimistically? Will also be Passed Onto my Heirs and up to them wether to Cash it in or keep it ..They, all being Richer than I ever was at their age and their nice Over paid Jobs and Pensions, don't need the $.. Both Living in the "Beverly Hills of the Midwest" ( NorthShore or Chicago).. and R Yuppies as well ! ( and their Neighborhoods/Assoc. Don't allow owners to Mow their own lawns, it all is done by the Assoc. Landscapers ! Its Disgusting ! ;-)
    Hope that helps! ;-0)
  • Pimco Cuts Government Debt Stake Just In Time For June Selloff
    FYI: The Pimco Total Return Fund, which lost its place as the world’s largest bond fund this year, cut holdings of U.S. debt to 8.5 percent of assets in May just in time for a June selloff.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-09/pimco-cuts-u-s-government-holdings-to-8-5-as-fed-spurs-yields
  • Art Cashin: "Beware Triple Crown Indicator"
    Speaking of indicators ... Laugh if you wish ... but, I track and note the S&P 500 Index readings with respect to the new and full moons. And, I have used the moon's phases to position cost average into some of my current positions. Now, let's see, the harvest moon comes this year on October 13th. Perhaps, this might be a good entry for the traditional fall stock market rally ... or ... something that might be very nasty to follow. Currently, I am leaning towards the fall rally as I feel excess valuation in the markets should be worked off by then. But, one never knows for sure if this is how the fiddle will be played. So, stay tuned.
    http://www.csicop.org/specialarticles/show/astrology_more_like_religion_than_science/
    http://www.csicop.org/search?cx=partner-pub-7990294390318881:kq7omegpkyf&cof=FORID:10&ie=UTF-8&q=astrology&sa=»
    image
  • Art Cashin: "Beware Triple Crown Indicator"
    Speaking of indicators ... Laugh if you wish ... but, I track and note the S&P 500 Index readings with respect to the new and full moons. And, I have used the moon's phases to position cost average into some of my current positions. Now, let's see, the harvest moon comes this year on October 13th. Perhaps, this might be a good entry for the traditional fall stock market rally ... or ... something that might be very nasty to follow. Currently, I am leaning towards the fall rally as I feel excess valuation in the markets should be worked off by then. But, one never knows for sure if this is how the fiddle will be played. So, stay tuned.
  • Dow Stocks Oversold And Breaking Down
    Geez - About half way thru 2015, and the Dow is in the red. Anybody see this coming?
  • If I didn't have a small pension I wouldn't have retired early at
    The title says it all. Financially, if I knew now, then, and I didn't have a pension that covers about 30% of my 2016 expenses, I would have stayed working longer. We have all discussed, how much you need to retire and you can do that with almost any amount if you are willing to compromise your living style. I don't want to do that and I don't have an extravagant living style.
    I've posted my budget and other information before. You can search for it.
    I do not plan on changing my spending habits.
    With my current projections I never run out of money. And in real terms my net worth, excluding home, increases. But, without the pension I would be vulnerable.
    Positive # = decrease in expenses
    % Year Age
    15.1% 2,008 52
    20.0% 2,009 53
    -6.1% 2,010 54
    -7.7% 2,011 55
    9.0% 2,012 56
    -6.2% 2,013 57
    6.2% 2,014 58
    -17.5% 2,015 59
    -1.8% 2,016 60
    -3.8% 2,017 61
    4.0% 2,018 62
    -5.9% 2,019 63
    -2.3% 2,020 64
    -4.2% 2,021 65
    -4.3% 2,022 66
    -5.0% 2,023 67
    -4.2% 2,024 68
    -4.8% 2,025 69
  • Dow Stocks Oversold And Breaking Down
    FYI: The Dow is now back in the red for the year with a YTD decline of 15 bps. The average stock in the index is still up, but only slightly at +15 bps. Below is our trading range screen for the 30 stocks in the Dow. For each stock, the dot represents where it’s currently trading, while the tail end represents where it was trading one week ago. The black vertical “N” line represents each stock’s 50-day moving average, and moves into the red or green zones are considered overbought or oversold.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.bespokepremium.com/think-big-blog/dow-stocks-oversold-and-breaking-down/
  • Art Cashin: "Beware Triple Crown Indicator"
    The title of Mr. Ritholtz's blog post:
    More Fun With Useless Correlations: American Pharoah
    Posted By Barry Ritholtz On June 8, 2015 @ 9:00 am In Bad Math, Cognitive Foibles, Investing
  • Half Of People Near Retirement Have No Savings
    Well the answer is both obvious and easily accomplished. Stop taxing the top 5%, and they will be so grateful that they will fall over themselves in a rush to help the less well-off.
  • Art Cashin: "Beware Triple Crown Indicator"
    FYI: Art as well as Barry Ritholtz must have read my Besposke link ! Unfortunalely, our own MFO JonH Wayne (John Chisum) thought it was drivel
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000386530&play=1
    Barry Ritholtz: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2015/06/american-pharoah/print/
    My Bespoke Link From Yesterday:
    http://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/21604/what-american-pharoah-s-win-means-for-the-market#latest
  • Better to have had it and lost it or not to have had it? I lost $100 million
    Follow-up to my earlier reference
    http://www.phillyvoice.com/ukewarm-stock-market-investors-betwixt-between/
    "One looming concern is the steady increase in investors using borrowed money to buy stocks. Total margin debt hit a record $507 billion in mid-April, according to the most recent figures from the New York Stock Exchange, trending higher along with the S&P.
    "There's complacency, more complacency than I'm comfortable with. It makes me nervous," said Leo Grohowski, chief investment officer at BNY Mellon Wealth Management in New York. "Market participants don't seem prepared for an uptick in volatility, which is consistent with high levels of margin debt."
    High levels of margin debt do not necessarily mean a selloff is coming. But they can make selloffs more violent should volatility pick up."
  • Half Of People Near Retirement Have No Savings
    Thank for the charts MJG. This one says it all:
    image