Rally is starting next week! :)
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/05/saut-expects-bottom-next-week-then-stock-rally.html

High Yield Corps - need to see how stocks behave - still a risky trade to me
They have actually bottomed before stocks YTD. At 36% going into today and will be 41% after the close. My friend here who trades like me is much higher. In the past I would have been a lot higher being that we now have had two 9 to 1+ days in one week. Age must be catching up with me Either that or I keep thinking there is another shoe to drop in high yield. But as I have said in the past, I never make money with my thinking.

The dividend yield on HYG for example, and link to stocks risk reward ratio just doesn't work for me at this time.

Good thinking Dex. Although I hope if you do go into junk corps it is with an open end and not an ETF. My latest foray into junk corps was a bust. Sold down to 8% which will be zero at the close. Back to 65% in the junk munis and may go higher today. Actually, it is the CA munis which are leading in 2016. While I may be in the black YTD, still have made several bonehead moves.

They also have some larger institutions, I believe, where something like $25k wouldn't be meaningful so I doubt that would happen.

@Old-Skeet: The next time this happens, sing this song !
Regards,
Ted
Have Patience:

FYI: Fixed income is one of the untapped corners of the smart beta market, and we should expect to see more fixed income strategies launched in the space, according to a panel at TD Ameritrade Institutional’s National LINC conference on Thursday.
Of the $2 trillion in total ETF assets, one-fifth are in smart beta, or strategic beta, strategies, said Ben Johnson, director at Morningstar. In 2015, there were $69 billion in net new flows into these strategies.
Regards,
Ted
http://wealthmanagement.com/print/markets/next-frontier-smart-beta-fixed-income

"Investors last year pulled a combined $15.8 billion from two mutual funds run by 61-year-old Rob Arnott -- Pimco All Asset and All Asset All Authority-- as their returns trailed most peers for the third straight year. They had Pimco’s most redemptions in 2015 except for Gross’s old fund, the Pimco Total Return Bond Fund, with $54.6 billion in withdrawals."

"Redemptions from All Asset All Authority surpass even Pimco Total Return in percentage terms when looking at their peaks. All Asset All Authority assets are down 76 percent from their 2013 high, to $8.6 billion, compared with Total Return’s 70 percent drop from its all-time high the same year."

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-05/bill-gross-investors-aren-t-the-only-ones-pulling-pimco-money

little5bee - I can only hope that insider selling would be too easy to spot albeit not until later. If so I expect those caught will be dealt with the same firm handslaps handed out to the financial manipulators of the housing/mortgage meltdown

MikeM - I don't know about COP but in the case of another energy company, KMI, shareholder reports were for maintenance of the dividend at it's then current level with growth of that dividend increasing at a 10-16% clip for the next 1-2 years. A month later the dividend was cut by 75% with muted at best growth of that dividend projected. Lie. Lie. lie.

Good evening,
In checking my portfolio's value this evening, at Yahoo Finance, all my funds are reporting a 6:45 PM pricing as we approach 7:00 PM EST ... The problem is that that the reflected 6:45 PM pricing is for yesterday February 3rd. and not today (Feb 4th). So something must be amiss possibly at NASDAQ.
Is anybody else experiencing these issues?

Re-opening the fund to existing shareholders with a maximum investment dollar amount (say $25,000) would satisfy the desire to add to GPEOX while maintain the fund's small asset size.

Looking at the Wasatch offerings, they seem comfortable with running more money - ie WAIGX ($1.3B), WAFMX ($892M) WAEMX ($785M), although some are much smaller, and some require direct investments with Wasatch. All told, Wasatch has rolled out close to 20-funds.
I am an existing Grandeur Peak investor with a humble pre-established automatic investment plan, and I appreciate GP's decision to close funds, and limit AUM.

Hi @MJG,
Thanks for posting your thoughts on the January effect on the markets (S&P 500 Index) along with explaining your reasoning.
If investors have invested based upon their risk tolerance, goals, time horizon, etc. then this past January is a good opportunity for them to review how they are invested and make adjustments if this volatility brings them pause and makes them uneasy. Things have indeed changed over the past ten years. Thinking back my portfolio now generates about half the income of what it did ten years ago. After all, back then, I was getting about 4% to 5% interest on my cash area investments alone. Today, zilch.
Perhaps some have taken on more risk than they realize, in an attempt, to maintain income levels.
Old_Skeet

@vkt This is interesting. Thanks for sharing. Could looking at the correlations between your RARE ratings and current 3 and 5 year measures for common statistics such as the Martin and Sortino ratios help to clarify what new information the RARE rating is providing? I took a quick look in MultiSearch using 3 and 5 years for a sample of the funds you ranked. Just quickly eyeballing things there appeared to be somewhat positive correlations except perhaps with YAFFX. Anyway, an evaluation tool like RARE seems like it could provide a useful additional metric to consider when evaluating a fund.......

Howdy @msf and @vkt
Overview of Fidelity's Active Trader Pro in link below.
At least 36 trades per 12 month rolling period, and more tools available for 120 trades and above. I do agree with @vkt regarding what is available with this program has value with helping to establish a better buy/sell.
I queried Fidelity about this a few years ago and attempted to download the program to a laptop. I/we didn't qualify for the program due to low trading volume. It didn't matter whether one could present a fact of having enough money within Fidelity account(s) to more than satisfy any other conditions and circumstances, including longevity as a customer. We still do not perform more than 36 trades/12 months.
I do understand their position.
I/we are very pleased with Fidelity over a 35+ year period.
Lastly, a few years ago I mistakenly purchased and then sold (to remove the mistake) a mutual fund within a two day period. This fund did have a short term trading period monetary fee ($fine). I called Fidelity and explained the "boo-boo" and the fee was never debited against the account.
https://www.fidelity.com/trading/advanced-trading-tools/active-trader-pro/overview
Regards,
Catch

(DSEEX/DSENX)
"Smart Alpha + Smart Beta = Complete"
Please join us for a live webcast titled
"Smart Alpha + Smart Beta = Complete" hosted by:
Jeffrey Sherman, C F A
Portfolio Manager Jeffrey Sherman will discuss the strategy, sector allocations and outlook for the DoubleLine Shiller Enhanced C A P E® (DSEEX/DSENX) for 2016.
Tuesday, February 9, 2016 1:15 pm PT/4:15 pm ET/ 3:15 pm CT
Register
https://event.webcasts.com/starthere.jsp?ei=1085237

Walkin the walk M*s top performing L/S fund in 2015-16
Update From the Jan 31 OTCRX Fact Sheet
..We continue to be focused on credit domestically and globally as the change in credit conditions is being underappreciated by investors from our perspective.
Credit market stress continues to percolate in various sectors with stress now going beyond commodities..
the decline in equity markets has made valuations slightly
more attractive; however, overall valuations in both the equity and bond markets are not compelling on an absolute basis considering the growth outlook. We
estimate the S&P 500 is trading around 15x-16x consensus 2016 earnings, this is near its historical average. Based on our conversations, it appears that in the
near term there will continue to be selling pressure in the market driven by asset liquidations among Sovereign Wealth ( funds )..
As we enter February, we have approximately 20% of the Fund in cash. We anticipate equity and bond markets will remain volatile as the market goes through a
painful digestion period driven by a less accommodative Federal Reserve, slowing global growth, tighter financial conditions, and the risk of a currency war.
Ultimately, asset prices will have to adjust to reflect a higher risk premium
Copyright © 2015 :::: Otter Creek Adviosors, LLC
http://www.ottercreekfunds.com/media/pdfs/OCL_Factsheet.pdf
OTCRX Y T D +4.09 1 YR +13.89 A U M $225 mil
JANUARY 20,2016 Webcast Combine the two links for the full presentation.About 45 minutes.
http://www.ottercreekfunds.com/media/pdfs/OCL_Call_Presentation_4Q2015.pdf
http://www.ottercreekfunds.com/media/pdfs/Q42015_CC.mp3
Or
http://www.ottercreekfunds.com/index_webcasts012016.html
Also
http://performance.morningstar.com/fund/performance-return.action?t=OTCRX&region=usa&culture=en_US
Synopsis /Outline
THE OTTER CREEK INVESTMENT PROCESS
US MACRO: THE AGE OF GOVERNMENT AUSTERITY IS OVER
Government spending is estimated to add around 40 70bps to GDP growth in 2016 according to various Street economists
US MACRO: OVERALL THE US ECONOMY HAS SLOWED
US MACRO: MIXED SIGNALS
Global trade volume growth has turned negative
One potential upside factor to growth is lower oil prices eventually boosting GDP
CENTRAL BANKS: THE POLICY CONUNDRUM
TAILRISK: EXPECT THE UNEXPECTED IN 2016
Large increases in global debt, zero bound rates, slowing growth
...we are expecting heightened levels of volatility to continue
(and they're busy boys on those days)
MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: EARNINGS GROWTH and PROFIT MARGINS
S&P 500 earnings growth excluding energy has moderated, but it is still growing
Margins gains have slowed
CHEAP DEBT & LOW RATES: REAP WHAT YOU SOW
Zero bound rates have created meaningful distortions in how capital is allocated...it started with energy production
Auto subprime financing at all time highs
THE MACRO and MARKET ENVIRONMENT: CONCLUSIONS
PORTFOLIO POSITIONING IN TODAY’S ENVIRONMENT
Long Portfolio
Short Portfolio
INVESTMENT THEMES
DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS
CONCLUSION
Seek to achieve:
•Absolute risk-adjusted returns
•
Capital preservation
in periods of dislocation
•
Low
correlation
relative to the market indices
•
Below average volatility
relative to the S&P 500 Index

For mutual fund investors ( that's us ? ) this development had to make Schwab the broker of the decade !
Ted's original post
November 2015 in Fund Discussions Flag
FYI: Initial investments for most funds cut to $100 from $2,500; subsequent investments reduced to $1 minimums.
Regards,
Ted
http://www.thinkadvisor.com/2015/11/16/schwab-slashes-minimums-on-onesource-ntf-mutual-fu?t=mutual-funds
http://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/71587/#Comment_71587

There's a proxy now to increase the management fee of OSMAX/OSMYX in a way that would increase it by 23 basis points (1/3 of its current 70 basis points). That's just the management fee; the total ER would likewise increase by 23 basis points. If you own shares, you can vote your proxy through Feb 11. Shareholder meeting is Feb 12.
The reason given is that while the management fees were once reasonable, now that other managers are getting more, these managers want in on the action too. Okay, a cynical paraphrasing; the exact phrasing is:
"(1) ... the Current Fee, which was established at the initial launch of the Fund in 1997, is no longer priced in line with the Fund’s peer group"
In case you didn't get that, it goes on to give another reason:
"(2) the Current Fee is below market and substantially lower than the fees charged to the Fund’s peers"
SEC filing: http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1041102/000072888915001798/proxy.htm

@llljb, you have it exactly right. BTW, I had to correct the numbers in my previous post from a bug in my earlier script that didn't calculate the percentages correctly, so YAFFX comes out second best below SMVLX in the average but your conclusion is correct.
As I mentioned in the first post, an average is just half the story. It is easily affected by outlier values, hence the distribution is important. I didn't put all the numbers in this post so people's eyes wouldn't glaze over.
The only difference between an A grade and an E is the rarity of that outperformance while both have good average expected values. Most investment periods in YAFFX history over last 8 years wouldn't benefit from the small period in which it outperformed.
To give some concrete numbers, while YAFFX had an expected average outperformance of 12%+ over 5yr periods, the median was actually -12%+. So half the periods not only saw negative alpha but also by a significant amount.
In terms of percentile, 0 or getting the same returns as an index happened at 57 percentile so if investors had invested spread uniformly across those 8 years, 57% of those investors would have seen negative alpha after 5 years in the fund. Hence the term lottery ticket for this grade and lower than a B which would have a lower alpha expected average but majority of people would at least see a positive alpha if not the maximum. Mainly because YAFFX outperformance was in such a narrow period. This is what gets hidden in cumulative calendar year returns listed everywhere.
In contrast, SMVLX had a long enough outperformance periods that any 5 yr period in its history would have enough overlap with an outperformance period to enjoy positive alpha. 0 is at 0 percentile for 5yr returns. So, investing on ANY day in the last 8 years would have given you a positive alpha between zero and the best, so even with worst luck in timing, you would not have suffered relative to the index and may have enjoyed respectable positive alpha. Hence the highest grade.
What is surprising to me is how poorly highly rated T Rowe Price funds in this category have done in this metric. Haven't looked at them closely yet to see what the explanation might be.