Howard Marks: I've never seen the world so uncertain
By Howard Marks 14 Dec, 201
5 at 12:02
Investors and strategists have to worry about two main risks. The first is the risk of losing money. The second is the risk of missing opportunities.
You cannot avoid both risks at the same time, so the real question is how you balance the two: 100:0, 0:100,
50:
50 or something else? Today, I would be 6
5% towards the defensive....
....The ultimate solution to illiquidity is to buy things you can hold for the long run.
I think the secret to success in investing is to be a long-term holder. Reduced liquidity can make life more difficult, but it should not change what you ultimately do. If you buy good assets at good prices with good prospects, you could close your trading desk and just hold them. I do not believe we make money from what we buy or sell, but from what we hold.
People ask me if we are in a high yield bond bubble. My answer is: ‘No, we are in a bond bubble.’ The pricing or yield spread of high yield bonds relative to other bonds is attractive.
We face record low interest rates. Thus we all have an interest rate problem - whether you are a bondholder or not. Prices of most assets are elevated because the Federal Reserve and other central banks set rates at zero, creating a bull market that has rewarded asset owners and borrowers, and penalised non-asset owners, savers and lenders.
This is the main reason the central banks should get out of the interest rate pegging business – because the free market is the best allocator of resources. And we do not have a free market in money. We have an administered market in money with distortions. This makes it easier for bad deals to get done and for uncreditworthy borrowers to borrow.
http://citywireglobal.com/news/howard-marks-ive-never-seen-the-world-so-uncertain/a865855?ref=citywire-global-latest-news-listAlsoNot only are investors losing confidence in lower-quality paper, they're also unloading the companies that most actively deal in the paper.
Waddell & Reed (NYSE:WDR) - whose $6.2B Ivy High Income Fund (MUTF:WHIAX) has suffered the largest outflows this year of any junk-bond fund - fell 7.
5% today, and nearly 1
5% over the past week.
The manager of the $
5.8B AB High Income Advisor Fund, AllianceBernstein (NYSE:AB) tumbled 7.1% on the session, and major Third Avenue Management investor Affiliated Managers Group (NYSE:AMG) brought its two-day decline to more than 13% with a
5.8% fall today.
http://seekingalpha.com/news/2983296-asset-managers-punished-in-high-yield-selloffWDR
https://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE:WDR&ei=IJRvVoHfCoay2AbG3riYBgAB
https://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE:AB&ei=LJRvVpHQKYvnjAHgxYLoCAAMG
https://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE:AMG&ei=dpRvVpGeEJeS2AbGxYOIBAArtisan APAM
https://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE:APAM&ei=uJRvVqm5LsS02AbzpYuQCQreferred to as Franklin Templeton Investments,BEN
https://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE:BEN&ei=65RvVsjSMNS5jAGt64mACQiShares Dow Jones US Brok-Dea. Ind.E T F
Exposure Breakdowns
Investment Banking & Brokerage
70.6
5%
Specialized Finance
27.31%
Asset Management & Custody Banks
1.74%
https://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSEARCA:IAI&ei=95ZvVrmQLMOkjAGCiZP4CA