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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Periodic Table Performance Returns 2007- 1st Half 2018
    FYI:
    Regards,
    Ted
    S&P Sector Performance:
    Novel Investor Sector Returns TableSource: NovelInvestor.com
    Asset Class Returns:
    Novel Investor Asset Class Returns TableSource: novelinvestor.com
    International Stock Market Returns:
    Novel Investor International Markets Returns TableSource: novelinvestor.com
    Emerging Market Returns:
    Novel Investor Asset Class Returns TableSource: Novel Investor
  • The U.S. Is Experiencing A Dangerous Corporate Debt Bubble
    Interest rates also rise when there is no longer a willing buyer for a corporate debt (that is owned by a corporation who is trying to sell it) or the debt is sold at a discount to par if the debt is defaulted on. Also, as treasury rates rise the spreads on corporate debt need to be reasonably higher than treasury debt in order to attract buyers.
    Apple and Oracle are two corporation (linked article below) that are trying to shed their ST corporate debt creating a "hole" in the bond market that other bond buyers are unwilling to fill. When debt is callable it can be "called" away, but how do corporation come up with the cash? A heavily indebted corporation (AT&T comes to mind) will have to pay the piper instead of the shareholder when deciding what is more important, A dividend, a stock buyback or the paying down of debt.
    Article:
    apple-oracle-dump-bonds-and-create-300-billion-hole-in-market
    AT&T Heavy Corporate Debt:
    time-warner-deal-adds-to-atts-heavy-debt-load
    Other Corporation with High Debt:
    corporate-debt-is-at-new-highs-and-these-companies-owe-the-most.html
  • The U.S. Is Experiencing A Dangerous Corporate Debt Bubble
    Worthwhile reading with several interesting charts. The "Everything Bubble" description seems appropriate. The author argues it is likely the current U.S. corporate debt bubble will burst due to tightening monetary conditions thereby causing a stock market collapse. (The only timetable included is that "we are about to learn".) Here is a sample:
    image
  • The U.S. Is Experiencing A Dangerous Corporate Debt Bubble
    FYI: While the ever-climbing U.S. stock market (and the bubble forming in it) has been stealing most of the investing public's attention, a dangerous bubble has been forming under-the-radar in the corporate bond market. Interestingly, this corporate bond bubble is one of the main reasons why the stock market has been consistently pushing to new highs, and it will also eventually prove to be its undoing. In this report, I will show a variety of different charts to help explain the U.S. corporate bond bubble and the risk it poses to the stock market and economy.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/jessecolombo/2018/08/29/the-u-s-is-experiencing-a-dangerous-corporate-debt-bubble/#2a2d9584600e
  • Trump Calls For Review Of Rule Requiring RMDs At 70 1/2
    FYI: A presidential executive order that could lead to investors keeping their money longer in tax-deferred retirement accounts? What’s not for investment advisors to like?
    Especially intriguing to advisors is the language in President Trump’s new executive order calling on the Treasury Department to review its rules for required mandatory withdrawals from 401(k)
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.fa-mag.com/news/trump-calls-for-review-of-rule-requiring-rmds-at-70-1-2-40625.html?print
  • The 10 Commandments Of Retirement
    Totally agree that health care will consumer much larger part of our retirement resources. We still have over 15 years fom retirement. In the meantime, we maintain an active lifestyle, routine exercising (swimming and walking), and eating healthy.
  • Cryptocurrencies and Blockchains – Anyone Investing here?
    Bitcoin has too many ups and downs this year. Still wonder if that is a viable and widely adopted currency.
    On the other hand, Warren Buffet found an Amazon-like stock in India, Paytm, and have invested a small stake.
    https://fool.com/investing/2018/08/29/warren-buffets-berkshire-hathaway-might-have-found.aspx
  • The 10 Commandments Of Retirement
    "holy cow, did that make a difference in how I viewed money." Thanks Hank for your story. The industry did a study that found presenting people with pictures of their aged progressed selves was indeed a very effective, if not the most effective, way of getting people to take care of their future selves. Perhaps “Pay yourself first.” should be #1
  • Buy ... Sell ... and Ponder (Fall Investing Season ... September, October & November)
    @MFO Members: Bought PRHSX on 8/27/18, fund was up 2.87% for the week. During the same period of time the S&P 500 returned .98%. I know its only five days, but this is a perfect example by being aggressive you get enhanced returns.
    Regards,
    Ted :)
  • Buy ... Sell ... and Ponder (Fall Investing Season ... September, October & November)
    My thoughts and positioning follow. As we open September Old_Skeet is currently just watching the markets and has been building my cash position since late June as my market barometer indicated that the S&P 500 Index moved from being undervalued in June to being fairly valued for most of July and August and just recently moved into overvalued status. I'm thinking with the upcoming November elections this will provide me a buying opportunity should I want to increase my equity allocation or perhaps open and build a fall spiff position as I'm thinking stocks will go soft around election time. Currently, my most recent Xray of my portfolio bubbled my asset allocation at 17% cash, 34% US equity, 18% foreign equity, 25% bonds and 6% other assets. During the past rolling quarter (90 day period) my commodity strategy fund (PCLAX, -3.2%) along with my emerging market fund (NEWFX, -3.5%) went soft while my aggressive growth fund (AOFAX, +19.6%) ... a dividend strategy fund (FDSAX, +7.7%) ... and, a large cap growth fund SPECX, +7.6%) all had a nice upward movement. Overall, I made some good money during this past rolling quarter.
    So, for now, I just sit and await a good stock market pullback so I can put some cash to work (most likely in a spiff position) when the next buying opportunity presents itself as measured by my market barometer.
    In closing ... I guess, for now, I ponder as I am not buying, nor selling, while I continue to build cash awaiting a good stock market pullback.
  • Barron's Cover Story: A Market Shakeup Is Pushing Alphabet And Facebook Out Of The Tech Sector
    This is why ETFs like ProShares Ex-Tech (SPXT) will be picking up these stocks. My comment there:
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/105938/#Comment_105938
    The point is that these firms don't just "dominate our digital lives", they dominate our lives. The value is in what they do (application), often more than in how they do it (technology).
  • Barron's Cover Story: A Market Shakeup Is Pushing Alphabet And Facebook Out Of The Tech Sector
    FYI: ( Make sure your watch the video, its very well done, along with the Sidebar "Tech Stocks Could Be Winners in Big Sector Shift.)
    Tech Stocks Could Be Winners in Big Sector Shif.)
    A Market Shakeup Is Pushing Alphabet and Facebook Out of the Tech Sector
    Photo: Javier Jaén
    Think of Big Tech and companies like Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, and Facebook come to mind. The firms dominate our digital lives, living on our cellphones and influencing how we interact with people, buy things, get to places, access information, and consume entertainment. Their market impact has also been huge: These four stocks have returned 33.7% annually over the past five years, on average, versus the S&P 500’s 14.5%.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/a-market-shakeup-is-pushing-alphabet-and-facebook-out-of-the-tech-sector-1535762710
  • RiverPark Focused Value Fund to liquidate
    M FO Members: Fund manager David Berkowitz explains how since his fund's creation he managed to finish YTD in the 96 percentile, one year in the 96 percentile, and three years in the 100 percentile. David, in the immortal words of former Chicago Bears Coach, Mike Ditka "Who Ya Crappin’?
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.riverparkfunds.com/focused-value-fund
  • RiverPark Focused Value Fund to liquidate
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1494928/000139834418013039/fp0035706_497.htm
    SUPPLEMENT TO SUMMARY PROSPECTUS, PROSPECTUS AND STATEMENT OF ADDITIONAL INFORMATION DATED JANUARY 25, 2018
    On August 30, 2018, the Board of Trustees (the “Board”) of RiverPark Funds Trust approved a Plan of Liquidation for the RiverPark Focused Value Fund (the “Fund”) pursuant to which the Fund will be liquidated on or about September 28, 2018 (the “Liquidation Date”). In approving the liquidation, the Board determined that the liquidation of the Fund is in the best interests of the Fund and its shareholders. To arrive at this decision, the Board considered factors that have adversely affected, and will continue to affect adversely, the ability of the Fund to conduct its business and operations in an economically viable manner, including factors such as low asset levels and limited future prospects for growth.
    Accordingly, the Adviser may begin positioning the portfolio of the Fund for liquidation, which may cause the Fund to deviate from its stated investment objective and strategies. It is anticipated that the Fund's portfolio will be positioned into cash on or some time prior to the Liquidation Date.
    Effective as of the close of business on September 10, 2018, the Fund will be closed to new investors and investments by existing shareholders.
    Any shares outstanding at the close of business on the Liquidation Date will be automatically redeemed. Such redemption shall follow the procedures set forth in the Fund's Plan of Liquidation. Final dividends will be paid in advance of the Liquidation Date. Any capital gains will be distributed to shareholders, if necessary, prior to the Liquidation Date.
    Any time prior to the Liquidation Date, the shareholders of the Fund may redeem their shares of the Fund pursuant to the procedures set forth in the Fund's Prospectus. Shareholders may also exchange their shares of the Fund into shares of the same class of another RiverPark fund if the shareholder meets the eligibility criteria and investment minimum for such fund.
    Any income or capital gains distributed to shareholders prior to the Liquidation Date or as part of the liquidation proceeds will be subject to tax. All investors should consult with their tax advisor regarding the tax consequences of this liquidation.
  • 10 great tech etf to buy
    10 Great Tech ETFs to Buy Now
    Aug. 31, 2018
    Most investors are fascinated with tech stocks. And why not? The information technology segment is the largest group within the S&P 500 index, with $9.8 trillion of the benchmark’s overall $46.6 trillion in market cap – good for more than 20 percent of its value.
    Whether its mega corporations like Apple (ticker: AAPL) or Amazon.com (AMZN) or small upstarts in emerging fields like cybersecurity and cloud computing, there’s always a big story somewhere in tech. There are a host of technology-focused ETFs out there, including both broad-based funds for diversified investors and tactical funds for those looking to play a more focused slice of the sector.
    1. Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK). This broad technology ETF is one of the most popular ways to play the sector among all ETFs, with a massive $22 billion under management. Including both the technology and telecom segments of the S&P 500, the 75 components are a who’s who list of the industry with the top of the list including Apple, Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) and Facebook (FB).
    Keep in mind, however, that this fund is weighted heavily toward Apple, which represents a staggering 16 percent of the portfolio. This bias is good when big stocks like these are doing well, but can be risky if things take a turn for the worse.
    2. Vanguard Information Technology ETF (VGT). Right beside the XLK is this Vanguard technology sector play that consists mostly of the same stocks, and also boasts more than $20 billion in total assets. However, there are a few subtle differences in the makeup of this fund – such as a more robust list of about 350 picks and the inclusion of payments processors Visa (V) and MasterCard (MA) in the top seven holdings.
    And as is typical of a Vanguard fund, the expenses are dirt-cheap at just 0.1 percent annually, or $10 on every $10,000 invested. That’s a small price to pay for a one-stop shop. – Jeff Reeves
    Click here to continue.
  • New Ranking Finds Vanguard's Robo-Advisor Rules The Roost
    FYI: Vanguard is probably best known for their low-cost mutual funds and ETFs, but its robo-advisor service is earning superlatives as well.
    Vanguard’s Personal Advisor Services tops the first edition of “The Robo Ranking,” a report released this week by Martinsville, N.J.-based Backend Benchmarking, the publishers of “The Robo Report.” Like “The Robo Report,” the ranking incorporates the researchers’ real-time performance analysis of roboadvisor portfolios.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.fa-mag.com/news/new-ranking-finds-that-vanguard-s-robo-rules-the-roost-40582.html?print
    The Robo Report:
    http://webreprints.djreprints.com/4417810789355.pdf
  • SFGIX/SIGIX Open Again?
    Quick note while we're waiting.
    Andrew's latest shareholder letter is (perhaps too long but) informative. At base, he thinks the ground has shifted in the EMs with China's rise as a sort of stabilizing force. That meant that the "Steady Eddy" stocks that are the centerpieces of the SFGIX portfolio are marginally less valuable: they lose too much upside for the downside protection they offer. He's making modest changes in process that will favor stocks on the tails of the growth-value distribution. Not major shifts, he stresses, but more appreciation for their potential contribution.
    Might be a coincidence but the fund has had top 10% returns over the summer.
    Back to waiting,
    David
  • MAPOX & FMIJX
    I wish i had $100k for FMIYX :(
  • MAPOX & FMIJX
    Our American Funds AMCPX is also up ~13% for the year. Top 5 holding categories:
    Information Technology 26.13%
    Health Care 22.75%
    Consumer Discretionary 18.83%
    Industrials 11.10%
    Energy 8.61%
    Top 10 Holdings- nice spread of Health & Tech, not super-FAANG:
    NFLX Netflix Inc 4.70%
    ABBV AbbVie Inc 2.59%
    UNH UnitedHealth Group 2.27%
    EOG EOG Resources Inc 2.26%
    AMZN Amazon.com Inc 2.15%
    ABT Abbott Laboratories 2.08%
    MSFT Microsoft Corp 2.01%
    AMG Amgen In 1.80%
    TMO Thermo Fisher Scient... 1.77%
    ACN Accenture PLC A 1.60%