Other "fall-downs": Williston, North Dakota real estate (Bakken oil field area). Scroll down to the price history estimates.
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/614-4th-St-W-Williston-ND-58801/114503567_zpid/

FYI: Former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, ex-U.K. Prime Minister Gordon Brown, and former European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet will help lead a new Global Advisory Board for Pacific Investment Management Co.
Regards,
Ted
http://www.investmentnews.com/article/20151207/FREE/151209936?template=printart

heezsafe, a 0.75% to 1% decline from highs and I am out. Will reload depending on market action. Why are you not taking a bow for your post below a few months back on the highly touted MLPs?
http://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/69515/#Comment_69515

@Junkster Oh yeah, let's have a little rock and roll. So far, a very conventional deterioration, IMO. All that's left is the "contagion effect." Unless a black swan happens by, HY muni should hang in there o.k., though I presently have no chips on that square.
OIL SPILL
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-08/year-of-distress-for-debt-burdened-oil-firms-just-got-even-worse

“I can’t see an average mutual fund stepping into energy high yield at these levels,” said Steven Azarbad, chief investment officer at Maglan Capital, a New York-based distressed hedge fund. “This is really a distressed investing market.” He said the “scramble for liquidity” was such that investors “are becoming less sensitive to price. People just want to get out."[my bold]
Ah, a tune with a familiar melody...... get ready for the "rousing" chorus?
You say goodbye, and I say hello, hello
I don't know why you say goodbye, I say hello.
https://youtu.be/rblYSKz_VnI

Understand about Martin etc, and will investigate in detail per your suggestions; thanks. Implies that if you have an LC fund that is similar to SP500 in most respects, it becomes riskier simply from the passage of time. Unless I am missing something, entirely likely. Hard to believe that. Must check vs Danoff, e.g.

Yeah, that's kinda what I see.
Most LC funds have volatility measured by STDEV, DSDEV, or Ulcer Index similar to S&P 500 (specifically between 75 and 125% of S&P500).
Pretty broad, I know.
I suppose we could up Risk Group rankings to 1 thru 10, just at time did not want to make it too precise...you know, like measuring a marshmallow with a micrometer.
But, maybe not.

>> most large cap equity funds have risk (volatility) close to s&p 500, which by our definition gets a 4.
Not following. Is SP500 less risky than any funds w a 3 rating? Always? Never? Or to put it the other way, no longterm LC mutual fund is less risky than SP500 by these criteria?
Sorry to be dense, but this seems unbelievable.

@daivdmoran.
No mistake on your part! I look for moderate risk equity funds all the time...just hard to find.

Which leads to the conclusion that SP500 is actually less risky than any LC fund the last decade or two? Seriously? To get any funds to look at I need to go risk 4? Wow.

Basically, since the s&p 500 is mostly large caps, most large cap equity funds have risk (volatility) close to s&p 500, which by our definition gets a 4.
Just the way it is.
c

Which leads to the conclusion that SP500 is actually less risky than any LC fund the last decade or two? Seriously? To get any funds to look at I need to go risk 4? Wow.

The reason David is that all 40 funds meeting the previous criteria are in Risk Group 4 and 5.
If you just look at 3 lc fund categories of moderate risk or less, you'll find...14 funds, but with either higher er or shorter life or tenure than you specified.
Hope that helps.
c

ok. last step...mfo risk group 1, 2, 3, which translates to very conservative, conservative, and moderate funds, which is based on volatility relative to overall s&p500...

which yields...
none
just like you said...

Holding up well a bit misleading as they are more than just holding up. They are beating most all the equity index and category returns as well as leading the pack in Bondville. Some of the better managed open end junk munis are up 4% to 5% YTD. And that is on top of last year's gain in the high teens. The junk corporates (ex short term junk) are down around 2.5% through today with several down more than 4%. Hope the pain in the corporates gets much, much worse because they will be setting up for a double digit annual gain somewhere down the road. How far down that road I haven't a clue.

ok, now 3 lc funds, 15 years or older age and tenure, and 1% er or less...

yields 40 funds...

now, 3 lc funds, 15 years or more with manager tenure 15 years or more...

yields 77 funds...

now, 3 lc funds age 15 years or more...

yields 326 funds...

ok...
3 lcs...

yields 634 funds through nov '15...

My favorite Bill Miller bit:
"5. This time is different:
Since the horrible losing streak, Mr. Miller has read a pile of books and research papers about crises in hopes of getting a better grip on what happened.
That should do the trick."
http://thereformedbroker.com/2014/06/30/everything-wrong-with-investor-behavior-in-one-article/

On Vanguard site there is a note indicating "updated and expanded estimates" will be provided on 12/11/2015

There's no mention of any equity index fund, as is to be expected:
"Note: Funds not listed do not expect, as of October 31, 2015, to distribute capital gains in December."
A quick check on M*'s page shows no cap gains in 2013 or 2014 either.

Putting in LC x 3 (meaning all types), 15y for age and tenure, 1% ER or lower, Risk 1,2,3, and everything else No or Any.
Getting no results.
Must be misunderstanding something here.