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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • WealthTrack: Guest: Paul McCulley: Prescient Thought Leader
    For large cap: PRESX, VEURX, FIEUX (and perhaps, FNORX)
    Small Cap: OSMYX (though international, but 65% Europe)
  • Portfolio Rebalancing…For Cowards
    I don't necessarily subscribe to all of this rebalancing stuff. Pretty-much on auto-pilot these days through some very good balanced and hybrid funds (which do the rebalancing for you to some extent). I did add a lot to commodities and natural resources in late December and early January. This speculative move has yet to pay off - but I'm the patient type.
    Generally, the things I hold (except the energy related) haven't done much the past 3-6 months in terms of outperformance and underperformance. Furthermore, rebalancing in retirement often consists of simply pulling IRA distributions from areas that have done the best.
    However, if you are looking for things to rebalance, The link below shows the best 5 and worst 5 market segments for first quarter 2015. Just keep tapping the "next" tab to view.
    Among the best performing fund sectors (which you might want to rebalance out of) are Japan, India, health care and U.S. small cap funds. Among the worst areas. (which you might want to rebalance into) are Latin America, natural resources, energy, utilities and precious metals. Keep in mind, however, that utilities are somewhat of an indirect play on interest rates. (That's because they finance a large portion of their infrastructure by floating bonds.) If you think rates will rise sharply, you may not want to get into them.
    http://www.investmentnews.com/gallery/20150401/FREE/401009999/PH/the-first-quarters-best-and-worst-mutual-fund-groups&Params=Itemnr=8
  • WealthTrack: Guest: Paul McCulley: Prescient Thought Leader
    I'd like to hear some suggestions of open-ended mutual funds that invest in European stocks and/or real estate and hedge in dollar terms. Thanks in advance.
    This is an ETF, not an "open-ended mutual fund", but it shouldn't make much difference for many investors.
    WisdomTree Europe Hedged Equity ETF (HEDJ)
  • Search Tools -- Risk profile
    It also cuts off, when I user it the last column I usually see is 5yr rank I believe.
  • Jason Zweig: Just How Dumb Are Investors ?
    If you read Jason's column you can track back to Bob Seawright's essay on how advisors can make better decisions, then back again to Seawright'sessay of the same name in Research Magazine. Both make thoughtful arguments.
    In the Research Magazine piece you'll find the name of the Dalbar study they're discussing. Googling the title allows you to find the Dalbar Quantititative Analysis of Investor Behavior (2014) study. There you'll get this answer to the question above:
    QAIB uses data from the Investment Company Institute (ICI), Standard & Poor’s, Barclays Capital Index Products and proprietary sources to compare mutual fund investor returns to an appropriate set of benchmarks. Covering the period from QAIB’s inception (January 1, 1984) to December 31, 2013, the study utilizes mutual fund sales, redemptions and exchanges each month as the measure of investor behavior. These behaviors reflect the “average investor.” Based on this behavior, the analysis calculates the “average investor return” for various periods.
    The Dalbar study, like Morningstar's, uses fund flows as a surrogate for investor returns. That is, if EM stock funds soar in 2015 but have a low level of assets while, say, large growth funds hold trillions but then crash, the former weighs lightly and the latter weighs heavily in assessing how the average stock investor did.
    Three follow-up thoughts: (1) Messers. Zweig and Seawright agree that Dalbar is consistent with, though more pessimistic than, the rest of the published research:
    ... all the relevant studies show that individuals underperform by a significant amount (we tend to buy high and sell low), Dalbar’s data (the study I reference in the piece) shows a gap that’s much larger than the other research. I should have noted that here. But it doesn’t change the primary point — our decision-making isn’t very good and needs to get much better. It just isn’t likely that it’s quite as bad as Dalbar portrays it.
    (2) I really dislike the quality of Dalbar's writing. They do a singularly poor job of explaining how they calculate things like the "Guess Right ratio" and their jumbled graphics detract from the argument.
    (3) That said, they make important arguments: that the quality of investor decision making has improved steadily over 20 years, that the improvement seems to have plateaued, that investor education programs have limited effect but that there are four strategies that advisors might pursue which would improve investors' prospects.
    The suggested approach consists of setting appropriate expectations, controlling investor exposure to risk, monitoring of risk tolerances and presenting forecasts in terms of probabilities.
    For what interest it holds,
    David
  • Portfolio Rebalancing…For Cowards
    Mona, Your Deep......as long as I get my 5-6% yield on my bonds, and Price remains steady or small increases (not 11%yr.) I'm happy with a holding I consider as cash, to be sold at anytime....they serve their purpose, but always nice to get a sensible response around here
  • Fund Manager Focus: Marc Dummer, Co-Manager, Principal Global Diversified Income Fund
    FYI: When he’s not on the road, Marc Dummer wakes up at 5:30 a.m., puts on a pair of shorts, and makes a 30-foot commute to his home office in Scottsdale, Ariz.
    He and his wife moved to this recreational hot spot from Des Moines, Iowa, two years ago, as part of a flexible work program at Principal Global Investors. “They said you can live anywhere, as long as you’re near a major airport,” says Dummer, who is among the 6% of the Principal Financial Group’s U.S. employees who telecommute. The upshot: Business trips are less taxing, and time on the job is more productive. “At the end of the day, it’s about quality of your work,” he adds
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://online.barrons.com/articles/principals-income-fund-many-ways-to-a-high-yielding-end-1428722943#printMode
    M* Snapshot PGBAX: http://quotes.morningstar.com/fund/f?t=PGBAX&region=usa&culture=en-US
    Lipper Snapshot PGBAX: http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/Fund/PGBAX?countrycode=US
    PGBAX Is Ranked #14 In The (CA) Fund Category By U.S. News & World Report:
    http://money.usnews.com/funds/mutual-funds/conservative-allocation/principal-global-div-inc-fund/pgbax
  • Jeff Gundlach, David Sherman, others; concerned, regarding IG bond issuance and the reasons.......
    @00BY / @catch22 Thanks for the insights.
    Inverse bond opportunities/Short bonds for the brave.
    David Sherman's ideas in this space are only available to accredited investors.(who among us?)
    Cohanzick Nexus
    Cohanzick Investment Management’s Nexus Fund is only open to accredited investors as the term is defined by the Securities Act of 1933 under Rule 501 or Regulation D. Before accepting an investment in the Nexus Fund, it must verify an investor’s Accredited Investor Status.
    Nexus is a short-biased credit fund focused on event-driven and fundamentally-based mispricing among bonds within a corporate capital structure or between equity and corporate bonds. The fund is co-managed by David K. Sherman and Bruce A. Falbaum, CFA.
    http://www.cohanzick.com/credit-opportunities
    http://etfdb.com/etf/IGS/#fundamentals
    http://etfdb.com/etfdb-category/inverse-bonds/#returns
  • The Closing Bell U.S. Stocks Rise, On Track To Book Weekly Gains
    @Ted, Here's a suggestion for you.A little less scolding and some
    caring for your nearby neighbors! ( If you haven't already)
    TO DONATE TOWARDS THE NORTHERN ILLINOIS TORNADO DISASTERS
    Donate online or call 1-800-SAL-ARMY, or text SACHICAGO to 80888 to make a $10 donation*.
    Donors may also mail a check to:
    The Salvation Army Metropolitan Division, 5040 N. Pulaski, Chicago, IL, 60630
    https://donate.salvationarmyusa.org/metropolitan/tornado
  • Municipal bond Separate account with Fidelity
    @DavidMMP
    So, this is a muni bond account managed by Fidelity's advisor group, yes?
    This separate account; is it one of these on this page list?
    What are trying to do with this investment (presumed taxable account) and why do you want to use a service from Fido with an additional .35% expense?
  • Municipal bond Separate account with Fidelity
    I met the representive from fidelity today and he suggested the municipal bond investment with fidelity's separate account option, the fee is reasonable at .35%. Anyone has experience with them on this? Thanks.
    David
  • Fidelity funds distributions, most select and a few others, today 4-10-15
    Scroll down the list viewing the distributions date, if you are curious about a Fido fund in your portfolio.
  • The Closing Bell U.S. Stocks Rise, On Track To Book Weekly Gains
    U.S. oil rig slowdown resumes rapid pace, down 40 this week
    Apr 10 2015, 14:15 ET | By: Carl Surran, SeekingAlpha News Editor
    The oil rig count has fallen for 18 consecutive weeks and is down 53% from the recent peak of 1,609 rigs hit on Oct 10, 2014.
    http://seekingalpha.com/news/2420336-u-s-oil-rig-slowdown-resumes-rapid-pace-down-40-this-week
    http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=79687&p=irol-rigcountsoverview
    From Top 12 Media Myths On Oil Prices Posted on Wed, 08 April 2015 16:45
    By Dan Doyle for Oilprice.com
    Biography
    Dan Doyle is president of Reliance Well Services, a hydraulic fracturing company based in Pennsylvania.
    In short, oil prices will increase as weekly E I A production numbers begin posting declines as we saw last week. Demand will increase. Inventories will start getting eaten into by midyear. Europe will contribute as will Asia and the Middle East. A shrinking Chinese market is still growing at 7% a year, and that market is much bigger now than when it was posting 10% yearly growth five years ago. Rich Kinder was right in calling the bottom in the low 40s and John Hofmeiser (former President of Shell Oil) and T. Boone Pickens are probably pretty close to being right with their call of $80 as the top in the next year or so. A solid $65 to $70 by year end is the more reasonable number and is just enough to hold off development of some offshore projects, oil sands work and a good amount of the non-core shale plays. A stronger dollar will also do its work here as will a Saudi Arabia hell bent on market share. There will be less and less for shorts to hold onto and very few will want to be stuck on the same side of the trade as the big investment banks.
    Misperception #11: American shale producers are the new swing producers. No, their banks are.
    http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Top-12-Media-Myths-On-Oil-Prices.html
  • Your own A.U.M. and your hourly rate of pay; after all those long years of investing.....
    Hi @Maurice
    The hours of "research" is merely a baseline for the numbers.
    'Course, if only 52 hours/year (1hr/week) were used for "research"; the hourly rate
    of pay would be just amazing, eh? But, this wouldn't allow for enough time with MFO !!!
    And yes, for all of our portfolios; tis always "do'in alright, so far....."
  • Your own A.U.M. and your hourly rate of pay; after all those long years of investing.....
    Howdy,
    Well, in the early days of one's retirement plan via IRA, 401k, 403b or related; it may be difficult to initially appreciate a rate of return on your money, when the balance is $2,000. Presuming a first, one year return of 8% on the money, $160 does not seem like much for most folks.
    The years roll past, and a working couple has managed to provide for a family and living within their incomes from their excellent budgeting skills; allowing them to continue to set aside monies into retirement funds.
    They maintained their positive investment emotions over the years, even when the investment markets had a few rough periods. They did/do monitor their investments, but were not frequent with moving money here and there. They actually enjoy this monitoring, as it is also an ongoing educational experience.
    Jumping forward to retirement period.
    We find their investible retirement savings to be exactly $500,000 on March 9, 2009.
    They decided, within their rollover IRA accounts, to have a moderate, U.S. centered investment allocation starting with a most simple plan. VTI and BND would have 50% of the monies allocated to each fund. They would monitor these choices and make adjustments as needed, based upon the results.
    The combined annualized return between these 2 funds over the past 6 years is about 10%.
    The numbers: March 2009 - March 2015
    --- 1st year, + $50,000 gain
    --- 2nd year, + $55,000 gain
    --- 3rd year, + $60,500 gain
    --- 4th year, + $66,550 gain
    --- 5th year, + $73,205 gain
    --- 6th year, + $80,525 gain
    Total current value = $885,780
    Total current gain over the 6 year period = $385,780
    They calculated the following fun excercise regarding their invested monies versus their time; another very precious commodity. They were curious with their time spent to monitor and perhaps take any actions with their investment holdings; as to what this would mean in terms of an hourly rate of pay for their efforts.
    Upon review, this couple determined they spend an average of 20 hours per week with investment business information; in written and television form. Keeping in mind that they don't really consider this a chore, as they both enjoy keeping up to date and informed.
    Twenty hours a week of time becomes 1,040 hours a year. With this in place, the following numbers were determined as to an hourly rate of pay:
    --- 1st year = $48/hour
    --- 2nd year = $53/hour
    --- 3rd year = $58/hour
    --- 4th year = $64/hour
    --- 5th year = $70/hour
    --- 6th year = $77/hour
    Overall average of the 6 years = $62/hour
    Obviously, they found these numbers quite pleasing; and more than any hourly pay rate they had received during their working careers.
    Well, another view; at least for this house, as to the value of saving and investing; and how it relates in the long run, to a part-time, post-retirement pay scale for working from the comfort of your own home. :)
    Hoping your hourly pay rate for the time spent monitoring and educating yourself for now or the future, to help your investments grow properly, into enough Assets Under Management; that you are well rewarded for your efforts.
    All numbers should be accurate. Please let me know if the math has a problem, as I can always blame the HP-12C calculator.
    Take care,
    Catch
  • Fidelity Fights Back Against 'Active Share'
    It does not help that Fidelity offers far too many funds at about 350 ... nearly 100 remain loaded.
  • 1st Quarter MFO Ratings Update
    All Search Tools have now been updated with performance data through March.
    The MFO Fund Dashboard contains all funds profiled through April commentary.
    Some notable funds on the Three Alarm list, which examines only absolute return within category, include:
    Greenspring (GRSPX)
    American Century One Choice 2025 A (ARWAX)
    American Century One Choice 2035 A (ARYAX)
    Third Avenue International Value Instl (TAVIX)
    The Cook & Bynum Fund (COBYX)
    Muhlenkamp (MUHLX)
    Fairholme (FAIRX)
    Valley Forge (VAFGX)
    Hussman Strategic Growth (HSGFX)
    Hussman Strategic International (HSIEX)
    AMG Managers Brandywine Advs Mid Cap Gr (BWAFX)
    Royce Partners Svc (RPTRX)
    Royce Premier Invmt (RYPRX)
    Delafield Fund (DEFIX)
    FpA Capital (FPPTX)
    Paradigm Value (PVFAX)
    Royce Low Priced Stock Svc (RYLPX)
    Royce Micro-Cap Invmt (RYOTX)
    Royce Select I Invmt (RYSFX)
    Royce 100 Svc (RYOHX)
    Royce Heritage Svc (RGFAX)
    Royce Pennsylvania Mutual Invmt (PENNX)
    Artisan Small Cap Value Investor (ARTVX)
    Ave Maria Opportunity (AVESX)
    Royce Global Value Svc (RIVFX)
    Royce Select II Invmt (RSFDX)
    Wintergreen Investor (WGRNX)
    Of Royce's 27 funds, nine are Three Alarm.
    Pacific Advisors has five Three Alarm Funds...they only offer six. From its website:
    We are a family of six focused mutual funds, each designed to meet a different need and to complement each other when building a diversified investment plan. Whether you are just starting out in your career, or enjoying retirement today, we deliver top quality service and a wide range of investments to meet your changing needs.
    Here is a snapshot (from MFO Premium beta site) of their lifetime performance:
    image
    Really horrible family of funds, seems to me. Why would anyone buy them?
    Vanguard offers 150 funds. How many are on the Three Alarm list? None. I find that remarkable. How many are on the Honor Roll? 32. I find that remarkable too.
    A look at just-turned-three Great Owls, finds:
    Guinness Atkinson Dividend Builder (GAINX)
    Rainier International Discovery Instl (RAIIX)
    DFA World Core Equity Institutional (DREIX)
    Seafarer Overseas Gr and Income Instl (SIGIX)
    Wasatch Frontier Emerg Sm Countrs Inv (WAFMX)
    PIMCO Total Return Active EtF (BOND)
    AQR TM Large Cap Momentum Style I (ATMOX)
    Vanguard Target Retirement 2060 Inv (VTTSX)
    2060?!
    A total of 8159 funds (oldest share class only, at least one year old) are included in this quarter's update.
    We also updated the look a bit to support new site theme...here's example of Risk Profile output:
    image
    Enjoy.
    c
  • Fidelity Fights Back Against 'Active Share'
    FYI: Facing outflows in its actively managed funds, the $2 trillion money manager lashes out against a popular measure that more advisers and investors are using to pick funds.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.investmentnews.com/article/20150409/FREE/150409909?template=printart
    Active Share Measures Active Management:
    http://www.investopedia.com/articles/mutualfund/07/active-share.asp?view=print
  • Jason Zweig: Just How Dumb Are Investors ?
    FYI: A new study finds that the average investor in all U.S. stock funds earned 3.7% annually over the past 30 years—a period in which the S&P 500 stock index returned 11.1% annually. That means stock-fund investors underperformed the market by approximately 7.4 percentage points annually for three decades, according to Dalbar, a financial-research firm in Boston that has updated this oft-cited study each year since 1994.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2014/05/09/just-how-dumb-are-investors/tab/print/
    Dalbar Study:
    http://grandwealth.com/files/DALBAR QAIB 2014.pdf