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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Gold ETF Demand Falling
    We inherited some gold coins in 2012. Should have sold at that time. Holding gold pays you nothing and you get to rent a safe deposit box.
  • 10 Funds That Returned 50% Or More This Past Year
    I own ETIHX which I purchased at a bad time in 2015, right before the bio's dipped. I was going to sell, but didn't. Now I'm up 50%. With a relatively concentrated position of 70 or so stocks, they look to be good analysts in this space.
    No leverage, but it does go into small bio's and is definitely a "risk-on" trade. Paring this with a combination of VGHCX could make a reasonable barbell position in healthcare as relates to risk. When the overall market takes a dive in the next 2 years or so, I'll be adding to this fund to make it a full position. Not for the squeamish though.
    FWIW, I agree with the comments above on leverage. I make enough bad decisions without magnifying them.
  • 7 bear market funds
    @bee, I am not sure I will go the way of reverse mortgage in retirement. My wife joke about sell the house, move into out 10 year old trailer and live on the driveway of our kids house. We sure spent enough to put them through college and help them along on their career paths.
  • 7 bear market funds
    @Hank, what alternative funds are you invested in? Were they around in 2008-early 9 for the great recession so that they have a performance tract record during the worst of economic times? Just curious how they performed over that stretch compared to a conservative balanced fund.
    Hi Mike - Fair enough.
    Here’s the answer to your question: QVOPX 3-4% of assets, TMSRX 6-7%
    QVOPX, lost 20% in 2008. In comparison, Price’s 40/60 balanced retirement fund lost 18%. What should be rememberd is that interest rates were probably higher back than, so bonds helped TRRIX more than they might in a similar crisis today. QVOPX (and Oppenheimer generally) really stunk up the joint during ‘07-‘09. They were overly-aggressive in many conservative offerings. Cleaned house afterward. Michelle Borre has been manager of QVOPX since 2011, and by everything I can read and research, she’s a solid manager who doesn’t take a lot of risk. I’m comfortable with a small sliver invested in the fund. (I’ve held class A shares there since the mid-90s.)
    TMSRX, is brand new. David has made a few comments re it in his commentaries. To wit, TRP’s literature bills it more as an alternative income fund. It’s best compared to RPSIX in my opinion. And that’s about where Price places it on their risk scale. RPSIX lost 9.4% in 2008. Obviously there are no figures from ‘08 for the new fund. FWIW, the two are about tied YTD - each having lost approximately 1% (but TMSRX has only been around since March).
    In no way am I recommending any of these mentioned funds to anyone else. It is in my opinion only a treacherous market in both bonds and equities. I’d say “Pick your own poison.” (But if you want to hear the bull case, there are a number of presenters on the board, among them @Ted.) :)
    Out for the rest of the day. Hope I’ve addressed. your questions adequately,
    Regards
  • 7 bear market funds
    @Hank, what alternative funds are you invested in? Were they around in 2008-early 9 for the great recession so that they have a performance tract record during the worst of economic times? Just curious how they performed over that stretch compared to a conservative balanced fund. Again, just my opinion, but alternative funds offer nothing that a good equity/bond balanced fund can offer, including safe-guarding your down side risk in retirement. Compare your alternatives for risk-return to a couple pretty conservative balanced funds like GLRBX or BERIX. These 2 funds lost only 5.5 and 10.2% in 2008 respectively, while averaging returns over the last 10 years of close to 6 and 7%.
    Not trying to change your mind or comfort zone, just saying, in my opinion alternative is more a marketing gimmick than a useful portfolio add at any stage of life. Bear market funds being the worst choice of the group.
  • 7 bear market funds
    @catch22: you said, "protection of assets from the "nasties". We've gone almost nine and a half years without the nasties, and I for one am not going to look over my shoulder for them because their no where in sight !
    Regards,
    Ted
    P.S. I have 000,000 in MVRXX earning 1.83%
  • 10 Funds That Returned 50% Or More This Past Year
    Close behind at 46.84% - FSRPX. No 2x strategy, low minimum, reasonable ER, steady long term results...
    image
  • 7 bear market funds
    @hank
    According to data from various sources, I'm considered a senior citizen, too. But, I was also offered a membership to AARP when I was age 35. :)
    As to the "cash" as a place to run to in the event of an equity melt. Well, if one is able to pull the evacuate equity soon enough, and choose not to go to U.S. bonds or notes, our current default core cash at Fidelity yields, 1.6%.
    Not too bad when seeking protection of assets from the "nasties", eh?
  • 7 bear market funds
    Hi Folks - I’m willing to allocate a small amount to alternative funds in the current exuberant market (currently 10%). And an even smaller amount to a gold fund (1-2%), which is another form of alternative investment. But please understand (1) I’m deep into the retirement / draw-down years and (2) I probably have accumulated enough $$ to last my remaining lifetime.
    What some don’t grasp is that at a very advanced age it takes just 1 devastating year to wipe out 25-50% of one’s lifetime savings. While (as many like to point out) the odds of such an event are relatively small (you odds-makers can calculate the likelihood), if it happens to someone 75 or older it’s unlikely they’ll recover that sum in their lifetime. So you need to understand that some old farts here are being extra cautious in the prevailing climate. Going to all-cash doesn’t sound like any fun. And I think one can still pull 2, 3 or even 4% a year better than a money market or CD over shorter periods - even conservatively positioned. As I’ve often pointed out, those under 60 (and @Ted still thinks he is) probably should be investing in good plain vanilla low-fee growth funds.
    The funds in JohnN’s post appear to be bear market funds. That’s 1 type of alternative - but by no means the entire domain. And a bear-fund to me is suicidal unless you really can foresee the future. Hussman is the best advertisement for an alternative fund which attempted to foresee the future and fell into the bear trap. HSGFX has sported dismal returns since inception. John H’s crystal ball clearly was defective. Maybe Amazon will take it back.
  • 7 bear market funds
    Me bad ! I don't have time for a 1 hour 15 minute presentation.
    :( :( :(
  • 7 bear market funds
    @bee: There is no such thing as a free lunch when it comes to reverse mortgages. There is a downside:
    Regards,
    Ted
    Reverse Mortgage Drawbacks:
    Fees
    Lenders charge a number of fees to close on and maintain a reverse mortgage. While you don’t have to pay the majority of fees until you leave your home, you could receive less money overall than if you had sold the home outright.
    Interest grows over time.
    Since a reverse mortgage is a loan, the lender will charge interest on the amount you take out. While you don’t have to pay interest as long as you’re living in the property, this reduces the amount you or your heirs would receive for selling your home.
    No annual tax deduction for interest.
    The interest on a reverse mortgage is not tax-deductible on your annual tax return. Since you do not make payments on the interest while living in your home, it cannot be deducted every year but will instead accumulate to the mortgage balance. The interest will only be deductible when the reverse mortgage loan is paid off, either partially or in full.
    Loan must be repaid if you move out.
    If you live somewhere besides your home, you will eventually need to repay your reverse mortgage. Your loan is due if you live somewhere else for nonmedical reasons for a majority of the year. Additionally, if you move out for medical reasons, such as to live in an assisted living facility, and are out of your home for more than 12 consecutive months, your loan must be repaid. This can force you to pay off the reverse mortgage earlier than expected.
    Additional Housing Costs
    While you don’t have to make loan payments on a reverse mortgage, you still need to cover other housing costs including taxes, maintenance and housing association dues. If you fail to make these payments, the lender could foreclose on your home.
    However, Bell notes that this concern is not unique to reverse mortgages. “If you don’t pay your property taxes, you could eventually lose your home in any situation.”
    Smaller Inheritance
    A reverse mortgage could reduce the inheritance for your heirs, as it reduces the equity in your home. If your heirs sell your home after your death, proceeds from the sale of the home will be used to pay off the loan, and then they will receive any remaining proceeds. If they want to keep your property, they will need to pay off the loan first.
    Source: U.S. News & World Report
  • 7 bear market funds
    Discussion on Reverse mortgages as a way to handle "seqeunce of return risk" in retirement:
    Reverse Mortgages
  • Allianz Global Investors: What Makes This A Top Portfolio: (PGWAX)
    FYI: When you're looking for investment ideas — whether individual stocks or mutual fund investment prospects — it makes sense to check the holdings of top dogs. One such pack leader is $1.1 billion AllianzGI Focused Growth (PGWAX), which has the best average annual gain of any U.S. diversified stock fund in its Allianz Global Investors group over the past three years.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.investors.com/etfs-and-funds/mutual-funds/allianz-global-investors-mutual-fund-investment/
    M* Snapshot PGWAX:
    https://www.morningstar.com/funds/XNAS/PGWAX/quote.html
    Lipper Snapshot PGWAX:
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/pgwax
    PGWAX Is Ranked #74 In The (LCG) fund Category By U.S. News & World Report:
    https://money.usnews.com/funds/mutual-funds/large-growth/allianzgi-focused-growth-fund/pgwax
  • 10 Funds That Returned 50% Or More This Past Year
    FYI: Even top-level investment managers don’t try to promise 50% returns but these 10 funds have all returned at least that much over the past year, vs. 16.71% for the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index.
    Here are 10 funds that have turned $100 into $150 or more in the last 12 months ending Aug. 17, 2018, according to CFRA.
    Regards,
    Tedhttp://www.investmentnews.com/gallery/20180823/FREE/823009999/PH/10-funds-that-returned-50-or-more-this-past-year&Params=Itemnr=2
    1. ProFunds Internet UltraSector Profound (INPIX)
    2. Rydex Monthly Rebalance NASDAQ-100 2x Strategy (RMQAX)
    3. Direxion Monthly NASDAQ-100 Bull 2x Fund (DXQLX)
    4. Eventide Healthcare & Life Sciences Fund (ETIHX)
    5. Jacob Micro Cap Growth Fund (JMCGX)
    6. Direxion Monthly Small Cap Bull 2x Fund (DXRLX)
    7. Lord Abbett Developing Growth Fund (LOGWX)
    8. Rydex NASDAQ-100 2x Strategy Fund (RYVLX)
    9. Rydex Russell 2000 2x Strategy Fund (RYRUX)
    10.ProFunds UltraNASDAQ-100 ProFund (UOPIX)
  • Gold ETF Demand Falling
    FYI: It’s been a lousy year for gold. Prices are down more than 8% so far in 2018, after falling below $1,200/oz for the first time in a year earlier this month.
    With U.S. stocks back near record highs, the dollar climbing and interest rates globally biased upward, there’s been little reason for investors to park their money in the safe-haven metal. At the same time, demand for physical gold has been tepid at best, according to the latest figures from the World Gold Council.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.etf.com/sections/features-and-news/gold-etf-demand-falling
  • 7 bear market funds
    One way to address bear market risk is to first study the history of bear markets:
    Here's a graphic:
    image
    source Image:
    History of U.S. Bear & Bull Markets
    Here's the narrative:
    historic-bear-markets/
    There are two term known as "Max Draw Down" and "Recovery Time" which loosely means the number of months it takes to complete the bear cycle from the start of the bear (when the bear arrives in camp) and until he leaves. For example, if you owned VWINX over the last 33 years (1985-2018) , this fund experienced a Max Draw Down of (-18.82%) starting in Nov of 2007. This fund bottomed in March 2009 and the began its recovery which continued until September 2009. Therefore, its "Recovery Time" took a little less than 2 years (November 2007- September 2009). This information is readily available on Portfolio Visualizer's website. Here's a snapshot of the chart with the Max Draw Down and Recovery Time highlighted.
    image
    For a long term investors these draw-downs are opportunities to buy less expensive shares. For retirees who are in the withdrawal phase these draw-downs create "sequence of return" risk especially if a retiree is locking in these losses with withdrawals (selling low).
    There are many ways to deal with sequence of return risk. I do not think owning a bear market fund is one of them.
    What might be?
    1. Withdrawing from a "cash like" funding source - In the scenario above one would need two years of income (2 years of withdrawals) since VWINX needed almost 2 years to recover. A retiree would instead withdraw from the cash-like source until VWINX recovered. Today these cash like accounts can earn almost 2% which helps offset inflation.
    2. Use your home's equity - either in the form of a HELOC or a Reverse Mortgage- as a temporary funding source for income. Both would need to be set up in advance. Remember HELOCs were being called in by banks during the very time that VWINX was floundering. A Reverse Mortgage has set up expenses associated with it, but it can not be called in by the bank. The younger you set it up (age 62) the longer the "equity value" grows independent of the "market value".
  • Fund Industry Limits C-Share Investing, Cutting 12b-1 Fee Income For Advisers
    FYI: The great share-class migration that has been building this year is starting to unfold, representing a significant pay cut for advisers relying on beefy 12b-1 fees for predictable income streams.
    Over the next few months, several fund companies plan to start converting C-class share mutual funds that have been held between seven and 10 years into A-class shares that pay advisers smaller 12b-1 fees.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.google.com/search?source=hp&ei=lwSAW5fLFYjYsQW0s4vIBg&q=Fund+industry+limits+C-share+investing,+cutting+12b-1+fee+income+for+advisers&btnK=Google+Search&oq=Fund+industry+limits+C-share+investing,+cutting+12b-1+fee+income+for+advisers&gs_l=psy-ab.3...3034.3034..4543...0.0..0.63.125.2......0....1j2..gws-wiz.....0.F6FvIhg6u5A
  • Loomis Sayles Value fund closes: LSVNX LSGIX
    See earlier post about liquidation:
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/41551/loomis-sayles-value-fund-to-liquidate
    Also from Loomis Sayles website:
    https://www.loomissayles.com/website/mutual-funds/Value-Fund
    7/25/18 In accordance with the provisions of the Plan of Liquidation approved by the Board of Trustees, the Fund paid pre-liquidation capital gain and ordinary income distributions on July 25, 2018. For more information, please refer to the “Daily NAVs/Distributions” section of the website. The remainder of Fund assets will be liquidated on August 30, 2018, as scheduled.
    6/8/2018 Effective June 8, 2018, the Fund will no longer accept investments from new investors. Effective August 15, 2018, the Fund will no longer accept investments from current shareholders. Effective August 30, 2018, the Fund will be liquidated.
  • 7 bear market funds
    https://investorplace.com/2018/08/7-bear-market-funds-for-protection/
    Bear market mutual funds can help investors survive and thrive the next time markets swoon.