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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Any thoughts or Info re ARTFX High Income Fund?
    Look carefully at the structure of ARTFX and compare it to other top junk bond funds. It is quite concentrated, definitely high-octane:
    https://www.artisanpartners.com/individual-investors/investments/credit-team/high-income-fund-artfx.html (click Data and Statistics Tab)
    only 99 securities
    71 issuers
    rated CCC 45.7%
    top 10 holdings: 38% (hacheewhawha!) #1 holding=6.1%
    (to put some context to it, the #1 hldg of PRHYX is around 1.5%, and I think you have to combine 3 securities from one issuer to reach that figure)
    I've held ARTFX since inception, since I think B. Krug is damn fine. So far o.k. but I am under no illusion more drawdown may be coming and it might not be pretty. I'm moving in verrrry sloooooow. Re. E&P bonds, AndyJ's exit may prove to have been prescient; some of them are second lien bank loans with leverage covenants, but if junk goes RISK OFF is that gonna help? I dunno, probably not.
    Might consider holding your horses for a few months to see how things shake out. ARTFX just paid out its CGs for the year, so at least you don't have to worry about a "big surprise" in Dec if you decide to go ahead and make the change.
    p.s. if you intend to invest with Artisan directly, instead of thru a brokerage account, beware their procedures for setting up an account with designated beneficiary. It is downright byzantine!
  • REITS: How To Invest In Real Estate Without The Added Stink
    Thanks Mark (Ted)...and RQI is selling at a 14.75% discount to NAV.
    I have owned CSRSX and have found these folks (Cohen and Steers) know REITS.
  • MFO Premium - accuracy of Fund composition data from Lipper
    Good stuff briboe69.
    Here are Lipper's definitions for the five portfolio allocation categories:
    Cash - The cash category includes cash, cash equivalents (including money market funds) and assets less liabilities. All instruments with maturities of one year or less are included in this category. Investments that fall into this category include repurchase ag
    Equity - The equity category includes all U.S. domiciled equity securities, American Depository Receipts (ADR’s), equity mutual funds and foreign equity securities.
    Convertible - The convertible category includes all convertible securities (and convertible securities mutual funds) including foreign convertibles.
    Bonds (aka Fixed Income) - The fixed-income category includes all government securities, corporate bonds, municipal bonds, foreign bonds, nonconvertible bonds, and nonconvertible preferred stocks and all fixed income mutual funds.
    Other - The other category contains rights, warrants, options, futures, mutual funds (that do not fit into any of the above categories), and gold bullion.
    Suspect in case of IVA Worldwide, the bond portfolio has big chunk of government securities, which M* for example is lumping in with Cash/Cash Equivalents ... like you note.
    I noticed the portfolio dates for both Lipper and M* are same 6/30/2015, so that is not the difference.
    Will dig further and in any case add some notes to premium site as well as portfolio dates to help better decipher.
    Very much appreciate your early and good feedback here, as always.
    Charles
  • MFO Premium - accuracy of Fund composition data from Lipper
    Joined MFO Premium - if you haven't joined do it now it's awesome - and wanted to comment on the accuracy of the fund composition data from Lipper. I've noticed many of my funds are way off between what MFO shows and what the actual fund company website shows - especially Cash% and Bond%. For example, IVWAX shows 0.5% Cash on the MFO Premium website and 34.8% Cash on IVA's website. Same for popular PRWCX - 0.0% Cash on MFO and 8% Cash on T. Rowe's website. MFO seems to be lumping the Cash% into the Bond%. I don't think it has to do with bonds that are considered cash equivalents - that would make the Cash% higher not lower. Am I overlooking something simple, or does Lipper have different definitions for fund compositions?
  • Small-Cap Core Funds
    @MrRuffles: For your information, U.S. News & World Report ranking of SCB Mutual Funds.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://money.usnews.com/funds/mutual-funds/rankings/small-blend?int=af9256
  • Jason Zweig: Can You Pick The Guys Who Pick The Guys Who Pick The Best Stocks?
    @MJG Oh yes, and I can think of another infamous example of a 3rd and 4th (il)logic chain: :)

    I really think the human mind is incapable of escaping this fallacy, it is so hard-wired into our cognitive processes as a species. About all one can do is be on the lookout for it and compensate as needed. And, for crying out loud, be amused by it.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conjunction_fallacy

    "I am particularly fond of this example [the Linda problem] because I know that the [conjoint] statement is least probable, yet a little homunculus in my head continues to jump up and down, shouting at me—“but she can’t just be a bank teller; read the description.” Stephen J. Gould[1]
    (for those familiar with the history of biology, Gould's use of "homunculus" is terribly witty)
    Also http://www.fallacyfiles.org/conjunct.html#Answer
    When people are asked to compare the probabilities of a conjunction and one of its conjuncts, they sometimes judge that the conjunction is more likely than one of its conjuncts. This seems to happen when the conjunction suggests a scenario that is more easily imagined than the conjunct alone. Psychologists Kahneman and Tversky discovered in their experiments that statistical sophistication made little difference in the rates at which people committed the conjunction fallacy. This suggests that it is not enough to teach probability theory alone, but that people need to learn directly about the conjunction fallacy in order to counteract the strong psychological effect of imaginability.
    And for MFOers who don't understand why we'd be prattling on about this, here is a recent mention of this fallacy by Clifford Asness of AQR on his personal blog site; he sounds a bit consternated, no?
    https://www.aqr.com/cliffs-perspective/do-not-go-for-the-exacta
  • Jason Zweig: Can You Pick The Guys Who Pick The Guys Who Pick The Best Stocks?
    Hi Heezsafe,
    Thanks very much for your submittal, but especially thank you for reminding me of the Conjunction fallacy. I am familiar with the work of Kahneman and Tversky so I am aware of the Conjunction fallacy, but I failed to recall that its common nickname is The Linda Problem.
    I agree with you that we all fall victim to this behavioral fallacy at some time or another; it is a pervasive shortcoming. And yes it does appear on a few MFO posts; it is hard to escape from it if folks don’t think in terms of compound probabilities. Folks seem to resist that discipline.
    For example, if you are invited to a financial investment meeting, what is the probability that a casual encounter will be with the money manager presenter if M people are present? The likely answer is 1/M or 2/M. Most folks would know that answer.
    Now, what is the likelihood that the person you meet is a successful money manager? Most folks would not know that a high probability correct answer to that question is 0.1/M. Successful money managers are hard to find because they are a rare breed.
    The Conjunction fallacy has been captured in many public media. It is often a major part of a movie theme. A terrific example of it is excitingly demonstrated in “The Enemy Below” movie. That film features Robert Mitchum as the destroyer skipper and Curt Jürgens as the submarine commander. It’s the great “he thinks I’ll do this, so I will not, but he knows I will not so…..” 3rd or even 4th level logic chain.
    Here is a Link to that 1957 movie trailer:

    I agree with the Keynes and the Zweig observation that multidimensional thinking and depth are required when making decisions. However, there is a practical limit and danger in the depth dimension.
    Many of us are guilty of over-thinking an investment. Since we never have access to complete information, we often delay and delay a decision until the optimum investment point has passed. We are victim to paralysis caused by too much analyses.
    As investors, it is a challenge to decide when enough information is enough to make a reasonable decision. That threshold balance point is hard to define, and likely changes for each decision. Firm rules don’t exist. Investing may seem easy, but is never easy to execute.
    I have pontificated far too long. Thanks again for your comments.
    Best Wishes.
  • Will Primecap Fund managers increase their non-US investments?
    @Mona: As of 9/30/15 POAGX held 11.53% of it's portfolio in non-U.S. Stocks.
    Regards,
    Ted
  • American Funds: Share Classes Galore

    As a longtime AF holder, I am happy with their funds and fairly comfortable with their investment process/management, but these days, knowing what I know now versus 15 years ago, would absolutely refuse to buy more and/or institute new positions if I had to pay a load.
    The last AF I purchased was in my 403(b) and a load-free, low-cost R-6 class share.
  • Fidelity Investments Tests Robo Adviser
    NYTimes report - the as yet unannounced cost will be 0.1% to 0.2% according to a phone rep (how reliable is that?).
    http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/21/your-money/fidelity-joins-growing-field-of-automated-financial-advice.html
  • Jason Zweig: Can You Pick The Guys Who Pick The Guys Who Pick The Best Stocks?
    Hi Guys,
    This Jason Zweig article is very reminiscent of a very famous John Maynard Keynes story.
    Zweig asked “Can you pick the guys who pick the guys who pick the best stocks”. Zweig concluded that “Picking market-beating stocks is hard. Picking the people who can pick market-beating stocks is at least as hard. And picking funds that can pick people who can pick market-beating stocks may be the hardest of all.”
    That’s a variation of Keynes’s beauty contest insight. Richard Thaler defined this as an illustration of “third level” thinking. Here is a Link to Thaler’s recent article:
    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6149527a-25b8-11e5-bd83-71cb60e8f08c.html
    In the Keynes beauty contest scenario, “each competitor has to pick, not those faces that he himself finds prettiest, but those that he thinks likeliest to catch the fancy of the other competitors.” The parallelism is evident.
    The referenced article offers more. Thaler summarizes a number guessing game that has the same logic as the Zweig and Keynes insights. You might enjoy playing this single question game. Give it a try.
    Various players use differing levels of thinking to arrive at their answer. Thaler presents data from a recent survey that included 583 individual participants.
    Richard Thaler observes that “Keynes’s beauty-contest analogy remains an apt description of what money managers do.” The mutual fund manager performance data suggests that these managers would not do well at the Keynes beauty contest game. Investing is not as easy at it seems.
    Best Wishes.
  • RPHYX / RSIVX: New commentary explains mistakes that resulted in credit losses
    The Crowd by Gustave Le Bon published way back in 1895 yet as topical as ever. I really think RPHYX isn't all that bad albeit not my cup of tea. RSIVX I said before is a mediocre fund (actually less than mediocre now) and heavens forbid if Jim Rogers and Carl Icahn are correct in their assessment that something real ugly is brewing in corporate junk debt. As an aside, PONDX which has been mentioned favorably on MFO numerous times, just doesn't seem to get the love that undeserving RSIVX does. PONDX, swelled assets and all just keeps truckin on.
    Nice post Junkster. And why all the ink on RSVIX and none on ASHIX that I can recall?
    Mona
  • Investors Share Their Hidden Gems
    How about this hidden gem that was un-hidden this week? 1,111 carats...
    image
  • Mutual Fund Distributions: The Profit And The Peril
    I received my first yearend mutual fund capital gain distribution this week from Thornburg Strategic Income (TSIAX) in the amount of 2.74 cents per share with a payout date of 11/19/2015. I anticipate receiving about a 3% capital gain distribution on the equity side of my portfolio. If this materializes, then the total distribution (interest, dividends, capital gains) received will be north of 5% on current valuation and better than 6% on amount invested. Thus far, this year, I have been able to have competitive performance with my portfolio's benchmark (The Lipper Balanced Index). Times are now tough for us yield seekers as I can remember my portfolio easily paid out better than 8% ten years ago.
  • Jason Zweig: Can You Pick The Guys Who Pick The Guys Who Pick The Best Stocks?
    FYI: Call it “the year of mimicking dangerously.”
    A handful of mutual funds and exchange-traded funds seek to emulate such leading investors as hedge-fund manager William Ackman of Pershing Square Capital Management. Most of these funds are down 5% or more for 2015, and some have lost at least 10% over the past three months as the embattled drug company Valeant Pharmaceuticals International . and other holdings of top investors have tumbled
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2015/11/20/can-you-pick-the-guys-who-pick-the-guys-who-pick-the-best-stocks/tab/print/
  • RPHYX / RSIVX: New commentary explains mistakes that resulted in credit losses
    @TSP_Transfer: Thanks for the lead on PTIAX. It's an interesting looking company and group of seemingly smart managers. I have much regret about getting into RPHYX and RSIVX after acting on what I read on MFO.
    The Crowd by Gustave Le Bon published way back in 1895 yet as topical as ever. I really think RPHYX isn't all that bad albeit not my cup of tea. RSIVX I said before is a mediocre fund (actually less than mediocre now) and heavens forbid if Jim Rogers and Carl Icahn are correct in their assessment that something real ugly is brewing in corporate junk debt. As an aside, PONDX which has been mentioned favorably on MFO numerous times, just doesn't seem to get the love that undeserving RSIVX does. PONDX, swelled assets and all just keeps truckin on.
  • RPHYX / RSIVX: New commentary explains mistakes that resulted in credit losses
    @VintageFreak If you want an idea of how much Sherman is investing in his funds, you might consult the most recent SAI
    http://www.riverparkfunds.com/downloads/SAI/RiverPark_SAI.pdf
    It's on page 45.
  • 2015 Capital gains distribution estimates
    Just got a note from Fairholme to indicate distribution estimates are available at the link below:
    www.fairholmefunds.com/press-releases/
    With distributions for FAIRX at a range of $11.55-$12.35 per share, I will be saying goodbye to Bruce within my taxable account. Looks to be 34% + if my math is correct.
    press
  • RPHYX / RSIVX: New commentary explains mistakes that resulted in credit losses
    Here's my response to RSIVX, In My Schwab I R A
    Was a $5000.minimum @ Schwab now $100 (see Ted's post here;" Schwab Slashes Minimums On OneSource NTF Mutual Funds"http://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/71575/#Comment_71575)
    PTIAX Buy $100.00 Reinvest Dividends and Capital Gains
    Trade Date 11/23/2015
    http://www.ptiafunds.com/images/website/documents/fund-documents/ptiax_factsheet.pdf
    Another "steady eddie" monthly payer to look @
    SCLDX
    http://scoutinv.com/resources/documents/literature/factsheet/low-duration-bond-fund-factsheet.pdf?c=1448065575921
  • Gross Doesn't Let SEC Guidelines Stand In Way Of Big Bond Bets
    FYI: Bill Gross turned to derivatives to make a big bet on emerging-market debt after taking the helm of a Janus Capital Group Inc. fund more than a year ago. One thing he didn’t let stop him: regulatory guidelines that lay out how much fund managers should use them.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-20/gross-doesn-t-let-sec-guidelines-stand-in-way-of-big-bond-bets