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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Serious Mutual Fund Returns: 40 Years Of Annual Returns: (FMAGX) - (SPECX) - (ACRNX)
    FYI: If you have any clients retiring today, and they’ve had money working for the past 40 years, large caps were their best bet. Ideally, large-cap growth.
    With all due respect to small-cap enthusiasts, high-yield fanatics or gold bugs, large caps have dominated a rollicking good ride from the late 1970s to today. These funds powered through good times and bad: sky-high inflation, bull markets, crashes and irrational exuberance. There were low points along the way, of course. That’s why we added both the best, and worst, annual performances for each fund, in addition to the 40-year annualized average.
    Spoiler alert, the worst year for each one was 2008, the year of the financial crisis. The best year for 11 of 20 of these funds was either 1979 or 1980. But before you get too envious of the days of disco, bear in mind that the 30-year mortgage rate reached 16% in 1980, according to numbers from FreddieMac.
    To be sure, a lot of funds aren’t eligible for this list. Any fund launched in the past 40 years obviously won’t be here, impressive gains notwithstanding. The biggest case in point: There are no ETFs on this list because they’re too new for our time frame in this analysis. The first ETFs made their appearance on the scene in the early 1990s.
    So which funds have posted the best performance for the past 40 years? Scroll through to see the top 20. All data is from Morningstar as of 12/31/2016.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://bic.financial-planning.com/slideshow/top-funds-for-the-past-40-years
    FMAGX annual return since inception, 2/5/63, is 16.04%
  • iofix
    @Junkster et al.
    IOFIX, 3 year chart.
    In many years of charts, I've not seen this relative to the top portion of the chart for RSI. This fund has generally maintained an above 70 RSI (daily or weekly chart) and is currently at 93.5. Above 70, for the technical aspect, is a "watch this", as this investment has entered an "overbought" area. To maintain in the 80-90 range is very unusual. Most technical folks would be yelling, sell. One may also see the price spikes near the end of calendar months as noted by @Junkster, including a most similar pattern from August of 1 year ago.
    @Junkster , have you an opinion as to whether the technical aspect is worth regard.
    @Tony , if you still receive notifications from MFO; take a look and please offer your technical view opinion.
    This link provides a basic description of ABS, relative to some IOFIX exposure. To the right edge of the page is a list of defined aspects of ABS.
    Asset backed securities
    Whatever management has figured out at this time in the investment area(s) is surely working.
    Regards,
    Catch
  • Jonathan Clements: Low Fidelity: Five Key Questions
    Mr. Clements should have moved back another decade into the late 1970's when Fidelity was hammering upon the 5-8% loads charged by Merrill Lynch and similar organizations for active managed mutual funds.
    Yes, Fido had some load funds, too; but at a lower "fee". The Fido eventually disappeared, too.
    I'll call this the "K-Mart" effect. Volume, volume, volume........force the competitors to match or get out of the way, using the low margin to gain market share and still make a profit on large volume. I had a good view of this, seeing the exposure of K-Mart (Michigan corp.) in Michigan in the early days.
    It is not difficult to imagine one's hard won money being invested in a fund in 1980 with a front load of (lets be generous) of 7%; versus today, where the same type of investment may be had as an index or etf with an expense ratio of .04%.
    Nuff said......
  • Jonathan Clement's Blog: Eight Heroes: Nobel Prize In Ecomonics
    Sorry, but just because someone’s a billionaire or someone naively believes in Homo Economicus and therefore markets are efficient so we need no government regulation despite massive evidence to the contrary doesn’t make them a hero. The Chicago School isn’t so much a school as a religion used to rationalize the worst depredations of one political party: https://google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/business/2013/dec/10/nobel-prize-economists-robert-shiller-eugene-fama
  • Buy-Sell-Ponder, anticipating April, 2018
    @MFO Members: Just my opinion, but suggest a new thread, Buy-Sell-Ponder, anticipating August/September, 2018.
    Regards,
    Ted
  • Charles Schwab vs. Vanguard
    FYI: Vanguard Group and Charles Schwab opened their doors to the public at nearly the same time in the 1970s, but with different approaches to investing. Vanguard pioneered mutual fund ownership and is now the world’s leading provider of this financial segment while Schwab pioneered the concept of discount brokers, allowing Main Street investors to buy and sell securities at lower prices.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.investopedia.com/ipf/charles-schwab-vs-vanguard/?partner=YahooSA&yptr=yahoo
  • Buy-Sell-Ponder, anticipating April, 2018
    This is such a great thread ... It would be nice if someone would start hosting it again. I did it for a couple of years and felt ... Well, it was time to pass it on to another ... Wonder what happened to @pudnhead?
    @Old_Skeet,
    Re The Pudd - Don’t know - But I like to think he got it right with one of his typical “long shots” and won a ton of money. I’d guess he’s out relaxing somewhere on the sun-deck of his 200-foot yacht mid-Atlantic and out of reach of any communications. Or, he might be reading the board somewhere and laughing at those of us still striving to make the perfect call.
    Of course, anyone is free to post their recent trades at any time, regardless of the BOS thread. I’ll say I do enjoy reading your normally very thorough weekly commentaries, although my approach is far less complex - perhaps because I hold maybe a quarter the number of funds you do. Was wondering whether you posted this weekend? Perhaps I missed seeing it?
    Personally, I’m in the distance out from retirement phase (I guess similar to an Apollo flight out on the far side of the moon) and so don’t take much risk. I’m also leary of this long term bull and geopolitical environment and rising rate scenario. Still sitting with a stable Core weighting just over 75%; about 19.8% in short-term near cash-equivalency funds; and a little over 5% in an equity fund. That’s not as Draconian as it sounds, since within that Core are some moderate risk funds like DODBX, RPGAX, OAKBX, PRPFX - along with a slice of mining, real estate and global infrastructure.
    Last week I switched my real estate holding from Oppenheimer (OREAX) to Price (TRREX) for no good reason except that my accounts are held directly through the fund companies. While the performances are near identical, it had the effect of burning some excess cash at Price and building a bit at Oppenheimer which might be put to good use there should market valuations drop. Oppenheimer has a slightly more aggressive near cash equivalancy fund in OUSGX which might yield a percent better longer term than TRBUX which I use at Price. And the transaction gave me a chance to toss a few more dollars into my depressed gold fund, OPGSX - literally pennies, because I consider gold too volatile to speculate on - though continue to like it longer term. Except for that minor rearranging of deck chairs, nothing cooking.
  • Jonathan Clements: Low Fidelity: Five Key Questions
    FYI: WE HAVE FINALLY hit rock-bottom. Last week, Fidelity Investments announced that it was introducing two index funds with zero annual expenses, while also slashing expenses on its other index funds and dropping the required minimum investment on all funds, both actively managed and indexed. All of this raises five key questions.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.humbledollar.com/2018/08/low-fidelity/
  • Jonathan Clement's Blog: Eight Heroes: Nobel Prize In Ecomonics
    FYI: A CURIOUS THING happened in Stockholm in 2013. The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences awarded the Nobel Prize in economics to three academics who had developed theories about stock prices. What was odd was that two of the recipients—Eugene Fama and Robert Shiller—couldn’t have been more opposed in their viewpoints.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.humbledollar.com/2018/08/eight-heroes/
  • Mutual fund early redemption penalty at TD Ameritrade and other brokerages

    So basically $100 total to buy and sell a transaction fee fund. I simply said I was paying $17 to sell and $17 to buy and then you said I was getting the short end of the stick. I couldn’t understand your logic of how I was getting the short end of the stick.
    The way I misread your writing, I thought the $17 was a short term redemption fee, not the total fee. My error.
    It seems like you're not merely getting grandfathered rates which would have added Scottrade's $49 short term redemption fee to the $17 TF, but the better of TDA's rates and Scottrade's rates. Not the short end of the stick at all!
    Fee          Scottrade  TDA   Your rate
    TF buy $49 $17 $17
    TF sell $49 $17 $17
    Short term fee $0 $49 $0
    (for TF funds)
    https://mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/25744/scottrade-s-new-90-day-fund-fees
    https://web.archive.org/web/20161011203253/https://www.scottrade.com/documents/alt/CommissionsandFees.pdf
  • Mutual fund early redemption penalty at TD Ameritrade and other brokerages
    >> My account is seven figures to the better than had I simply put it in an S&P index fund or scattered my monies among a 1001 funds for diversification purposes
    so you made an extra million over $76k from outside-the-box decisionmaking
    No, made over a million plus more than what my return would have been had I put the money in an S&P index fund and then stayed the course.
  • Mutual fund early redemption penalty at TD Ameritrade and other brokerages
    >> My account is seven figures to the better than had I simply put it in an S&P index fund or scattered my monies among a 1001 funds for diversification purposes
    so you made an extra million over $76k from outside-the-box decisionmaking
  • iofix
    Thank you Junkster.
    I have considered DPFNX, but will look closer. I remember feeling a bit uncomfortable about the advisor in 2017, which was not helped when I saw this earlier this year ...
    Deer Park SEC Probe
    Here's side-by-side comparison of IOFIX and DPFNX this past year (99 peers):
    Risk & Return Metrics ...
    image
    And looking back 3 years:
    Period Performance ...
    image
    Batting Averages ...
    image
  • GPMCX
    Here is another news commentary on MECAX (not to hijack the thread but MECAX was mentioned above):
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/small--and-micro-cap-stocks-get-another-look-as-the-sp-500-index-stalls-2018-08-17
  • Mutual fund early redemption penalty at TD Ameritrade and other brokerages
    @Junkster, can you point toward the book and magazine articles? If you are up a mil over simple SP500 (is this only a few percent of total assets?) in this bull market (and why were you working at all??), this 71yo would like to study up. Will also send you all my moneys and beg you to take on, or guide.
    A few here are aware of the book etc. it was written long ago is outdated and I don’t recommend purchase. My point was what was I to do with only $76,000 in lifetime contributions to my IRA?Invest it in an S&P index fund? Instead I had to think outside of the box if I ever wanted to have a respectable nest egg for retirement.
  • Mutual fund early redemption penalty at TD Ameritrade and other brokerages
    I'll try briefly beating a dead horse one more time :-)
    TDA charges a "regular" (not grandfathered) customer $49.99 to by a TF fund, and $49.99 to sell that same fund, regardless of whether the sale is after 1 day, 180 days, or 10 years. (See, e.g. this 2012 Forbes article saying that that TDA charges fees on both buys and sells of TF funds.)
    It's charging nothing extra to sell that TF fund in under 180 days. That's why I view it as charging no special short term trading fee on TF funds. You won't save money by waiting 180 days to sell.
    Exactly, So basically $100 total to buy and sell a transaction fee fund. I simply said I was paying $17 to sell and $17 to buy and then you said I was getting the short end of the stick. I couldn’t understand your logic of how I was getting the short end of the stick.
  • iofix
    @Junkster
    The regular 0.40% monthly decline of IOFUX (in the last two days of each month) corresponds to the associated monthly distributions.
    I understand about the price adjustment when the monthly dividends are paid. I am referring to the negative price action each quarter beginning 11/27 and 11/28. 2/26 and 2/27 and 5/25 and 5/29. If this pattern continues there should be a similar pattern near the end of this month. This is the reverse of most of last year where each quarter or so there were inexplicable daily price jumps the largest being over 2% last August. This involved the repricing of their portfolio by a reporting agency. I would just as soon not see a decline this month and maybe yesterday.’s price action is simply a return of what occurred last year each quarter.
  • The Linkster's Pension Fund Divesting From Private Prisons
    FYI: (The Linkster took an early retirement in 1992 after a 28 year career with the Chicago School's.)
    (This is a follow-up article.)
    The Chicago Teachers’ Pension Fund’s board of trustees voted on Friday to phase out investments in companies that run private prisons or immigrant detention centers, saying the businesses have an outsized negative impact on minorities and the poor.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-education-pensions-chicago/chicago-teachers-pension-fund-divesting-from-private-prisons-idUSKBN1L229H