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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • VWINX
    Hi @ hank
    @Bobpa wouldn't have to move to Vanguard for the VWINX purchase.
    I had an indirect account with Vanguard many years ago, but only for the purpose of having a 401k placed there by the company, and there was no brokerage feature.
    But, all of our primary accounts have always been with Fidelity. The 401k monies have since moved to Fidelity, too.
    Many years ago (30)?, when one opened an account at Fidelity for mutual funds, if you wanted to also purchase other than Fidelity mutual funds and stocks, a separate brokerage account could be opened; and the fund and brokerage account were internally connected.
    Today a new Fidelity account, although there may be special conditions for some special account types; comes with the brokerage feature regardless. The brokerage feature applies to taxable, traditional and Roth IRA accounts; and perhaps other.There is no requirement to use the brokerage; but it is one's money path to wherever you want the money to travel.
    For this thread purpose, VWINX simply becomes another purchase within one's Fidelity account. There is no requirement to have any Fidelity product within the account, with the exception of a core money market fund for parking money from a sell, and awaiting to be placed towards the next purchase; simply an internal transfer station.
    The process is very smooth internally.
    @Old_Joe noted a similar process for Schwab.
    'Course, we don't have a clue as to @Bobpa and where his account resides.
    I fully agree, that it would not be worth the effort to attempt to find a match for VWINX.
    Good night,
    Catch
  • Junk bonds at all time highs - S@P next?
    @MFO Members: Its not only junk bonds, I reasonably certain that PONCX along with other multisector bond funds will close at an all time high. I was right, PONCX closed at $12.13
    Regards,
    Ted
    Lipper: U.S.-based investment-grade bond funds post inflows for 3rd straight week:
    https://www.reuters.com/article/investment-mutualfunds-lipper/update-2-u-s-based-investment-grade-bond-funds-post-inflows-for-3rd-straight-week-idUSL2N23R1EN
    Yes it was an exceptionally strong day in bonds of all stripes and colors from PDIIX in multisector to PFORX among others in world bonds dollar hedged. Corporate junk surprised even me by its strength. VWEHX up 69%. But @Ted I think you missed the gist of my post. It was in reference to mynoriginal post of June 11 above and how could junk bonds be making all time highs then with the world seemingly coming to an end ( attached link from 6/10 above). And will the S@P be next. This is now twice this year junk has lead the S@P to all time highs.
  • VWINX
    Couple weeks ago I posted a link at VG that let’s you enter a symbol from another fund complex and thereby learn what VG considers their closest match. Works opposite of what you’re trying to do. But may be of some help in verifying that the fund(s) you’re considering is considered similar to VWINX in VG’s eyes.
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/50424/interesting-fund-cross-reference-tool-from-vanguard
    Tend to agree with the suggestion above to go with the “real deal.” I suspect VWINX isn’t an easy one to duplicate. On the other hand, if, like me, you’re accustomed to working directly with just one or a small handful of houses, I can understand why you might not want to move to VG.
    At a glance VWINX appears to be 40/60 fund (heavier on the fixed-income side). One I like at Price that’s
    a well run 40/60 fund is TRRIX. But it lags VWINX performance wise (by about 2 percentage points over 10 years). Hard to beat VG’s low ER. That’s often the difference between a very good fund and a great one,
  • Junk bonds at all time highs - S@P next?
    @johnN
    Your words: " peak Before crash"
    Absolute.
    You may tell any family and friends who are invested in the markets that "Catch" says so, on this 20th of June, 2019. He/she/they should take action now to position their assets accordingly.
    The below is to be considered an electronic signature and valid in some U.S. states.
    Catch
  • Junk bonds at all time highs - S@P next?
    @MFO Members: Its not only junk bonds, I reasonably certain that PONCX along with other multisector bond funds will close at an all time high. I was right, PONCX closed at $12.13
    Regards,
    Ted
    Lipper: U.S.-based investment-grade bond funds post inflows for 3rd straight week:
    https://www.reuters.com/article/investment-mutualfunds-lipper/update-2-u-s-based-investment-grade-bond-funds-post-inflows-for-3rd-straight-week-idUSL2N23R1EN
  • DSENX FUND
    FWIW, Schwab is saying NTF / $100 minimum.
  • VWINX
    I did a search for any funds with better 3, 5, and 10 year performance and lower volatility (as measured by three year std deviation).
    An oddball fund that has superior performance and similarly low volatility (though not quite as low) is FRIFX.
    No fund beat VWINX on all four metrics (three lengths of performance periods and volatility). But if I relax this a bit by allowing a bit higher volatility if it is more than outweighed by its superior performance (i.e. better three year sharpe ratio), then many funds pop out. They include funds such as:
    VTMFX (a peer of VWINX; virtually identical Sharpe ratio with higher performance and volatility due to its 50/50 mix vs. Wellesley's 40/60 mix)
    PRWCX (moving toward more equity and more volatility; 20% better Sharpe ratio in exchange)
    VWELX (again, more equity and volatility; virtually identical Sharpe ratio to VWINX)
    Several convertibles funds offer a similar increase in equity "feel", commensurate increase in volatility, and improved Sharpe ratio. PACIX may be the most accessible (open, load-waved through some brokerages).
    Moving into pure equity, volatility continues to increase. Still, many large cap blend funds combine (relatively) low volatility and high performance to offer comparable risk adjusted return (sharpe ratio). But even the lowest volatility funds in this group are significantly more volatile than VWINX, and their risk-adjusted returns aren't much better. To get significantly risk-adjusted returns here, you have to take on even more risk (i.e. move beyond the low risk equity funds). See, e.g. PRBLX.
    Few large cap value funds offer superior risk adjusted returns. Of note are the Yackman funds (YACKX, YAFFX) with volatility not much greater than VWELX.
    It's the rare (relatively) low risk large cap growth fund that offers even comparable risk adjusted return. One that stands out here is CSIEX.
    As one moves to mid and smaller cap funds, risk tends to go up, and it becomes harder to justify it with better performance if risk is a paramount concern.
  • DSENX FUND

    Do a search here, several have analyzed it thoroughly, and its own writeups are clear enough, at least on the surface. Buy the cheaper DSEEX if you can put in >$100k.
    $5K min for IRAs at Fidelity and Vanguard (mouse over min for IRA min), probably at some other brokerages as well.
  • DSENX FUND
    Boy, those two sure are winners, and with TRBCX are among the few LC I have seen (have not done an obsessive search, though; maybe there are many LG) to have outperformed DSEEX since its 11/13 inception. I don't believe I have ever had so much in a single fund, either dollars or percentage.
  • Junk bonds at all time highs - S@P next?
    I love
    Yesterday a slew of junk bond funds closed at all time highs on a total return basis. The proxy index for junk bonds closed at 1343.59 vs its May 1 all time high of 1344.07. Prior to that May 1 top, junk bonds had been making all times highs on a seemingly daily basis since mid February. Unless there is some reversal in today’s trading (anything is possible) the junk bond index will also close at all time highs.. How can this be? If you read the commentary below you will read that the macro and micro economic data continues to deteriorate.
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-big-wall-street-bear-warns-his-bleak-scenario-for-2019-is-taking-shape-2019-06-10
    New highs in the S@P today. So now what? Place your bets. The bears would argue many of the other indexes are still below their highs of January 2018 and this is a bull trap. I believe Jeff Gundlach is in that camp who continues to postulate “this is a bear market. The bulls would argue we are breaking out of a triple top in the S@P and it will be a swift move upwards from here. They would also argue there is a lot of bearish sentiment and underinvested investors out there for a market making news highs. In the meantime, today will be yet another new all time high in the junk bond market.
  • DSENX FUND
    No, not international at all, but LV; buys and sells monthly within the SP500 according to rules involving valuations.
    Do a search here, several have analyzed it thoroughly, and its own writeups are clear enough, at least on the surface. Buy the cheaper DSEEX if you can put in >$100k.
    I myself own it; it's now my sole equity holding, and almost 3/4 of our total.
    The 'need' is that it steadily outperforms.
  • M*: 3 Top World-Stock Funds: Text & Video Presentation
    Ditto my recent comments about M* being enthralled with certain value shops. I have no problem with them endorsing Vanguard Global Equity, but Oakmark Global and Causeway Global Value rank in the bottom 15% of similar funds for the five-year period. Somehow Russ Kinnel finds a way to crown Oakmark's managers as star stock pickers despite their mediocre records. Why do I subscribe any more?
  • Dividend Stocks, Hot This Year, May Get Even Hotter Thanks To The Federal Reserve
    Cintas (CTAS, $191.55) is perhaps best-known for providing corporate uniforms, but the company also offers maintenance supplies, tile, and carpet cleaning services and even compliance training. As such, it’s seen by some investors as a bet on jobs growth.
    There may be something to that. Shares have more than tripled over the past five years vs. a gain of just 51% for the S&P 500. In January, the economy notched its 100th consecutive month of employment gains. Meanwhile, weekly jobless claims stand at levels last seen in 1969.
    Regardless of how the labor market is doing, Cintas is a stalwart as a dividend payer. The company has raised its payout every year since going public in 1983. Most recently, in October, Cintas raised its annual dividend by 26.5% to $2.05 a share.
  • Dividend Stocks, Hot This Year, May Get Even Hotter Thanks To The Federal Reserve
    FYI: Dividend stocks, which have performed well this year, may get another boost if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates.
    With lower rates, income-seeking investors could use dividend stocks more than ever, and growth investors may also be interested because declining low interest rates prop up prices of higher-yielding stocks.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dividend-stocks-hot-this-year-may-get-even-hotter-thanks-to-the-federal-reserve-2019-06-19/print
  • Here Comes A New $160 Billion Asset Manager: Sun Life
    FYI: Insurer Sun Life Financial has created an independent business, bringing together its affiliated asset management firms and the investment capabilities of its general account under a new brand called SLC Management.
    This launch caps off six years of work. In 2012, Sun Life started building an asset management business to offer outside clients the strategies it uses for its own portfolio, such as commercial mortgages, liability-driven investing, and real estate.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.institutionalinvestor.com/article/b1fx5y3rzwtmp2/Here-Comes-a-New-160-Billion-Asset-Manager
  • Which Annuities Offer The Best Inflation Protection?
    Averages are just that, averages. Some prices go up more than average, some less.
    I believe the two fastest growing costs are health care and education. While health care tends to hit older people disproportionately hard, education costs tend to bypass seniors. In San Francisco, while the cash fare for a MUNI ride is about to go up from $1.35 to $1.50 for seniors, the Clipper card fare will remain the same $1.25 that it was in 2017.
    https://www.sfmta.com/sites/default/files/reports-and-documents/2018/08/fiscal_year_2019_and_2020_fare_table_2018_0802.pdf
    Not to mention that the value of that fare was recently (Sept. 2018) increased. A single fare now gets you a transfer good for two hours instead of 90 minutes. This allows "customers the ability to complete round-trips for shorter errands, such as medical appointments, shopping or dining". As someone who still games these systems (and keeps a Clipper card on hand for trips to the Bay Area), I appreciate that.
    https://www.sfmta.com/blog/fare-time-limits-increase-two-hours-and-new-cheaper-all-day-passes-way
    Consumers tend to notice the prices that jump while downplaying the prices that remain relatively stable. Similar to investors feeling worse about their investments going down by 10% than they feel good about their investments going up by 10%.
  • Which Annuities Offer The Best Inflation Protection?
    Excerpt: “Originally, the CPI was determined by comparing the price of a fixed basket of goods and services spanning two different periods. In this case, the CPI was a cost of goods index (COGI). However, over time, the U.S. Congress embraced the view that the CPI should reflect changes in the cost to maintain a constant standard of living. Consequently, the CPI has evolved into a cost of living index (COLI). ... Over the years, the methodology used to calculate the CPI has undergone numerous revisions. According to the BLS, the changes removed biases that caused the CPI to overstate the inflation rate. The new methodology takes into account changes in the quality of goods and substitution. Substitution, the change in purchases by consumers in response to price changes, changes the relative weighting of the goods in the basket. The overall result tends to be a lower CPI. However, critics view the methodological changes and the switch from a COGI to a COLI as a purposeful manipulation that allows the U.S. government to report a lower CPI.”. https://www.investopedia.com/articles/07/consumerpriceindex.asp
    A few take aways:
    - The methodology for computing CPI has undergone several changes over the years So, it’s not the same yardstick today as it was 30, 40 or 50 years ago. Looking at long term historical CPI numbers as some type of norm is tantamount to comparing apples to oranges (or at least mixing them together)..
    - These changes were to an extent politically inspired.
    - CPI purports to take into account the increased value of the products consumers purchase. So, if you choose to drive a stick shift car with an AM radio and roll-down windows and without power steering, seat-belts or side view mirrors, than the price of new cars has increased by only 2-3% annually. (Good luck finding one.) You could also hue to that government figure by switching to B&W TV and sticking an antenna on your roof instead of enjoying cable. And if you could still find one in a box somewhere, buying a “new” Vic-20 home computer or maybe an Apple II E would allow you to fully appreciate that 2.9% inflation rate. Finally, (at great risk of being redundant), if you can find a physician willing to provide only the level of health care (including prescription medications) you would have received 50 years ago, than your health care costs may have increased by that 2-3% number.
    - It would be nearly impossible to measure the change in the value of some products. Take air travel for instance. How in jiggers do you calculate the real cost difference when the airlines keep tacking on fees for things like checking a bag, using the overhead storage compartment or selecting a window seat? But if you could, you’d still have to figure out how to account for the diminished value stemming from the discontinuance of meals on flights (once standard), non-refundable tickets and smaller more uncomfortable seats.
    - CPI doesn’t consider the increasing need for medical care as the population ages. So CPI for those of us 70+ may be a bit different (I suspect somewhat higher) than for a much younger individual.
    I don’t know whether those numbers Catch quoted included the effect of compounding. But suspect not. When running a 3% inflation rate through a compounding calculator I get a 15.93% cost increase over 5 years. Inflation looks a bit more onerous when viewed over longer periods.
  • Which Annuities Offer The Best Inflation Protection?
    --- Inflation rate
    A common measure of inflation in the U.S. is the Consumer Price Index (CPI). From 1925 through 2018 the CPI has a long-term average of 2.9% annually. Over the last 40 years highest CPI recorded was 13.5% in 1980. For 2018, the last full year available, the CPI was 2.2% annually as reported by the Minneapolis Federal Reserve.
    --- Rate of return
    This is the annually compounded rate of return you expect from your investments before taxes. The actual rate of return is largely dependent on the types of investments you select. The Standard & Poor's 500® (S&P 500®) for the 10 years ending December 31st 2018, had an annual compounded rate of return of 12.1%, including reinvestment of dividends. From January 1, 1970 to December 31st 2018, the average annual compounded rate of return for the S&P 500®, including reinvestment of dividends, was approximately 10.2% (source: www.standardandpoors.com). Since 1970, the highest 12-month return was 61% (June 1982 through June 1983). The lowest 12-month return was -43% (March 2008 to March 2009).
    Hi @hank
    I don't underestimate or have a blind eye to inflation. B.O.L. CPI is a bit twisted with what is used for calculations.
    I don't allow the data in the above 2 displays to cause me to think that things won't change.
    Hell, I/we still keep a paper ledger for all expenses by category; a habit I've had since 1970.
    As I've stated here numerous times........this time is different. And so it remains, seeking a financial path since the market melt.
    Too tired to think or write more tonight.
    Good night.
    Catch
  • Which Annuities Offer The Best Inflation Protection?
    Anyone who believes that overall inflation is running anywhere close to 3% is living in a dream world. Hell, a round-trip senior MUNI fare just went from $2.70 to $3.00 (over 10% increase) and that's just one random number. Everything in the SF Bay Area is going up steeply and regularly, and has been for a few years now.
  • DLEUX and Europe
    Just a heads-up, and it may not last, but for some reason DLEUX has finally, recently surged to the head of its class.
    It is valuation-rules-based with monthly churn, I believe.
    Its past performance has been meh, and I have kvetched about same, but now over its life, meaning since the end of 2016), it outperforms, so far as I checked, all of the top European mfunds and etfs except for Fido's and TRP's.