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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Preparing your Portfolio for Rate Cuts
    junkster wrote: "Regarding CBYYX where a few are invested including me. I re entered this fund in July after Hurricane Beryl had no impact whatsoever. Hurricane Beryl was a cat 5 and broke all sorts of meteorological records. Yet none of the cat bonds got hit. Since Beryl the cat bonds have been the best performers in Bondville even outperforming the S@P. Oddly enough almost all the gains have come on Fridays."
    regarding Friday gains, i found this today on the artemis website that perhaps explains why that day is special:
    "Investment managers are working to incorporate their projections and estimations of potential losses from major hurricane Milton into their catastrophe bond and ILS portfolios. Managers of 40’s Act registered US mutual fund structures need to mark their portfolios with a fund price daily, based on net asset value. This is a challenge given the catastrophe bond market only marks its positions on a Friday ...."
    that being the case, it'll be interesting to see what this friday brings ...
  • QQMNX is a Promising Alternative Fund

    So, when someone posts about a fund I own now and says, Well, in 2022, it lost more than another fund or in the last 10 years, this fund was better than another, I don't care, what matters is what the fund is doing now..

    The problem is defining "now." A fund that does well for a few months or even a year would be bad reason FOR ME to jump in, perhaps you are different. If you have a fund that outperforms for years then that would be a reason for me to move...but just as often I find the fund reverts to the mean rather than continue to outperform, a point you acknowledge in another post. I totally get the idea of riding the wave of a winner, but find that strategy hard to implement in real life. Truth is it's very hard to beat buy and hold with solid funds over a long period of time, or even an index fund. I suspect many of us know that deep down, but just because I'm a bad golfer doesn't mean I dislike golf.
    Actually, most funds trail the SP500 with which has a very small expense ratio if you hold for decades. There is a good reason why Bogle and Buffett recommended the SP500 for decades....and it's the easiest way to invest. So, why are we discussing funds and trade?
    I came to a conclusion that I want to participate in the markets by using best risk/reward funds. The idea is to find good performance wide range funds with lower volatility, and that will result in a better sharp ratio. My basic system from 2000 to 2013 was to use a fund screener every 4-6 months and find the best 5 risk/reward funds for 1-3 months + 1-3 years and invest 20% in each. After I have done it several years, I learned a lot more about the managers, their history, and their weaknesses and strengths.
    2008 was a waking call, I lost 25% in that year, and since then I have been searching for a way to control meltdowns. It took me another 10 years to master that concept, but this time by using special bond funds.
    As you can see, it took me years of practice and tweaking. You just can't wake up one morning and be successful doing it.
    Of course, bad calls are built into it, the idea is to lose very minimal (which in bondland is 0.1-0.2%) and make a lot more when I'm right. I'm not your typical trader, if my trade is right, I can stay in it for months until I find a better fund.
    Now, at retirement, my portfolio is big enough that I only need to make inflation + 2-3%(of course, I want more) and why I don't need to take a lot of risk.
    What is "now"?
    Years ago, using my original system, 'now' used to be 1-3 months but I also looked at 1-3 years just to be sure the fund did well for the short+longer term.
    Since 2017, "now" is the last 2-3 weeks and where better trading is needed
    "now" also means investing in the best wide range funds, why you don't want to diversify, and exactly what I have done.
  • lovable losers? The WSJ on active ETFs
    There's a fascinating piece in the WSJ on the ascendance of active ETFs (Jon Sindreu, "Investment Industry Loses Active ETFs," 10/8/2024). Not quite sure what to say about it. Key points:
    1. Passive is a low margin, commoditize business which is "killing many midsize asset managers that lack the scale of compete."
    2. Smart beta was the industry's first attempt to raise its margins by offering passive-like (or "passive-light") ETFs with higher fees. That cascaded in ESG and other niche preferences.
    3. Active ETFs "are the latest attempt" to add to margins, and their investors "are paying more to get less performance." In particular, large cap active ETFs trail both large cap funds and passive ETFs in performance. Active mid-caps trail passive mid-caps. None of those calculations take volatility into account.
    4. Active ETF launches this year outnumber passive by 3:1.
    5. Active ETFs are outperforming in small caps and bonds.
    6. The largest active ETF is JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF, "which sells covered calls to reduce volatility," an activity that Mr. Sindreu describes as "a sure way to miss out on big gains during rallies while retaining unlimited downside risk."
    To which I say, "hmmmm..."
  • Physics Nobel Goes to...AI
    The chemistry Nobel goes partially to AI.
    https://apnews.com/article/nobel-chemistry-prize-56f4d9e90591dfe7d9d840a8c8c9d553
    These will provide huge boosts to profitless (so far) AI investment themes (many say AI-hype). So, I am changing the OP category from Off-topic to Other Investing.
  • The Ensemble Fund will be liquidated
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1103243/000141304224000794/enscls497.htm
    497 1 enscls497.htm
    A series of PFS Funds
    Supplement dated October 8, 2024
    to the Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information
    dated February 28, 2024
    This supplement updates information currently in the Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information. Please retain this supplement for future reference.
    The Board of Trustees (the “Board”) of the PFS Funds (the “Trust”) has approved a Plan of Liquidation (the “Plan”) relating to the Ensemble Fund (the “Fund”), effective October 3, 2024. Ensemble Capital Management, LLC, the Fund’s investment adviser (the “Adviser”), has recommended to the Board to approve the Plan due to the pending acquisition of the Adviser and the acquiring entity’s desire not to continue the mutual fund business. As a result, the Board has concluded that it is in the best interest of the shareholders to liquidate the Fund.
    In connection with the proposed liquidation and dissolution of the Fund called for by the Plan, the Board has directed the Trust’s principal underwriter to cease offering shares of the Fund immediately as of the date of this Supplement. Shareholders may continue to reinvest dividends and distributions in the Fund or redeem their shares until liquidation. While undergoing an orderly liquidation, the Fund will invest in cash equivalents and will not be pursuing its investment objective.
    It is anticipated that the Fund will liquidate on or about October 24, 2024. Any remaining shareholders on the date of liquidation will receive a distribution of their remaining investment value in full liquidation of the Fund. If you have questions or need assistance, please contact your financial advisor directly or the Fund toll-free at 1-800-785-8165.
    IMPORTANT INFORMATION FOR RETIREMENT PLAN INVESTORS
    If you are a retirement plan investor, you should consult your tax advisor regarding the consequences of any redemption of Fund shares. If you receive a distribution from an Individual Retirement Account or a Simplified Employee Pension (SEP) IRA, you must roll the proceeds into another Individual Retirement Account within sixty (60) days of the date of the distribution in order to avoid having to include the distribution in your taxable income for the year. If you receive a distribution from a 403(b)(7) Custodian Account (Tax-Sheltered account) or a Keogh Account, you must roll the distribution into a similar type of retirement plan within sixty (60) days in order to avoid disqualification of your plan and the severe tax consequences that it can bring. If you are the trustee of a Qualified Retirement Plan, you may reinvest the money in any way permitted by the plan and trust agreement.
    This Supplement, and the existing Prospectus dated February 28, 2024, provide relevant information for all shareholders and should be retained for future reference. Both the Prospectus and the Statement of Additional Information dated February 28, 2024, have been filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission, are incorporated by reference, and can be obtained without charge by calling the Fund toll-free at 1-800-785-8165.
  • The Week in Charts | Charlie Bilello
    The last but one segment in the Blog
    S&P 500 - second Lowest ever dividend yield (1.27%) and highest P/E (25) and highest P/S (3.0)
  • The Week in Charts | Charlie Bilello
    The Week in Charts (10/08/24)

    The most important charts and themes in markets and investing, including:
    00:00 Intro
    00:19 Free Wealth Path Analysis
    01:04 Topics
    01:57 The Resilient Jobs Market
    04:41 Labor Market: Still Cooling
    08:34 Big Shift in Fed Easing Expectations
    10:52 Bond Market Got Ahead of Itself
    14:32 China Goes Parabolic
    22:45 Declining Dividend Yields
    25:25 More Affordable Rents
    Video
    Blog - 10/08 blog not currently available
  • QQMNX is a Promising Alternative Fund
    My problem with qqmnx, which I own, is that it really isn’t “market neutral.” It has a .61 correlation with the S&P 500, according to PV. The Vanguard and AQR market neutral funds have negative correlation to the S&P 500. Qqmnx is also the only of the three with a positive beta to the overall market. If the goal is non-correlated returns to the stock market this may not be the best vehicle. That being said, if it is a piece of an overall strategy to achieve non correlated returns, it may be perfect.
  • QQMNX is a Promising Alternative Fund
    As to what constitutes "that moment in time", I can only speak for myself. I tend to look for things which are showing a pattern of doing well over the last couple of weeks as a validation of performance over the last month or two. Something that did well three months ago or before, but is currently stumbling, might indicate an inflection or an accident in composition. The same is true of something which has done nothing for six months, but is currently doing well. Might mean something; might not. It does me little good to be involved with something which did well a year ago, but hasn't in the last month or more. That's a trader's perspective, certainly, and not for everyone.
    This is also the perspective of someone who has enough, and who doesn't want to lose what has been gained; I don't, after all, have 30 years to smooth out losses. Purely binary outcomes with roughly equal odds are not appealing. While willing to run risks, I prefer to control the extent of the risk and want to be paid to take that risk. Right now, I chose not to risk a lot, because I don't think you can expect to be paid adequately for taking that risk. So far this year, I've gotten about 70% of the market, while usually holding less than 50% equity and haven't felt at risk. Everyone's situation is different, but I consider that to be a good outcome.
  • Morningstar Fund Category Definitions (US), April & October 2024
    You beat me to this. Thanks for sharing this out and sorry there was a delay in posting it to our site. Fwiw, I believe we had already publicly announced the changes back in April. https://advisor.morningstar.com/ReleaseNewsLive/releasePopUp.aspx?Id=1835&type=Product&name=Advisor Workstation
  • America Risks Running Out of Tickers for Single-Stock ETFs
    A nonissue.
    Only the current rules for single stock eTF tickers are too restrictive.
    Reserving tickers shouldn't be free, but should have some nominal cost. Also, copycat tickers shouldn't be allowed - those reserved by others that are similar to existing company names/tickers.
    Look at how the ADRs are named. The ADR tickers may have identifiable letters, or not. They end in Y or F.
    So, single stock ETFs can just end in S.
    Many foreign tickers are all numbers (Japan, S Korea, HK), so a mix of letters and numbers can be used.
    All mutual funds have 5-letter tickers that end in X.
    There are also thousands of Nasdaq/NFN tickers for funds that don't trade - VAs, etc. Nasdaq charges a small fee for those. These 6-letter tickers start with Q and end in X, e.g. QzzzzX. MFOP now recognizes several.
  • QQMNX is a Promising Alternative Fund
    1) hank "@FD / Wouldn’t it help people more if you posted what different investments will do in the next 1, 5, 10 years rather than what they did in the past?"
    FD: your claim is pretty old. I don't predict what would be good, I invest based on what markets do currently and what I have posted for about 15 years on different sites.
    You can read real time trades (here). What I think about bonds (here) and market calls (here).
    2) hank: day/frequent trader
    FD: I never said I'm one. I said I'm a trader and I'm not ashamed of it, while many who trade as much as me or more can't admit they are one.
    3) BB: what does FD say about the prospects going forward for QQMNX or the L/S category
    FD: I have said many times that most should avoid ALT funds and explained why. You must hold for years to see the benefit just to find out it was wrong.
    4) MikeM: It's just BS to say this fund did well in this time frame but didn't do well in another,
    FD: it's not BS, history proved that 1-2 categories can be at the top for years. Constructing a portfolio with the best funds now and never trading will not guarantee best results in the next 10 years. Markets change. Managers that did great with one style will lag markets that do better with another style.
    One of the best writers in this site is Charles Lynn Bolin because of his ability to change based on current markets.
    5) MikeM: To keep responding with fund suggestions after the fact and thinking you are some guru is irritating.
    FD: of course, we had to get to this claim :-) Just read the above 3 links in item 1).
    6) MikeM: I don't believe that FD can construct a portfolio for a second.
    FD: pretty funny Mike.
  • AlphaCentric LifeSci Healthcare Fund to change name...
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1355064/000158064224006058/alpha-497.htm
    497 1 alpha-497.htm
    AlphaCentric LifeSci Healthcare Fund
    CLASS A: LYFAX CLASS C: LYFCX CLASS I: LYFIX
    (the “Fund”)
    October 7, 2024
    This information supplements certain information contained in the Prospectus, Summary Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information for the Fund, each dated August 1, 2024.
    ______________________________________________________________________________
    Effective on or about November 1, 2024, the Fund’s name will change to “AlphaCentric Life Sciences and Healthcare Fund”.
    * * * * *
    You should read this Supplement in conjunction with the Prospectus, Summary Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information for the Fund, each dated August 1, 2024, which provide information that you should know about the Fund before investing. These documents are available upon request and without charge by calling the Fund toll-free at 1-844-ACFUNDS (1-844-223-8637) or by writing to 4221 North 203rd Street, Suite 100, Elkhorn, Nebraska 68022.
    Please retain this Supplement for future reference.
  • Physics Nobel Goes to...AI
    "Two pioneers of artificial intelligence – John Hopfield and Geoffrey Hinton – won the Nobel Prize in physics Tuesday for helping create the building blocks of machine learning that is revolutionizing the way we work and live but also creates new threats to humanity, one of the winners said.....Hinton, who is known as the Godfather of artificial intelligence, is a citizen of Canada and Britain who works at the University of Toronto and Hopfield is an American working at Princeton."
    https://apnews.com/article/nobel-prize-physics-fc0567de3f2ca45f81a7359a017cd542
  • QQMNX is a Promising Alternative Fund
    The future possibility of any manager beating a relevant benchmark is near impossible to predict. If that can be done at scale with a high hit rate, the poster would not be on this forum! Buffett and Giroux are the exceptions and not the norm. There's a few managers of hedge funds and non-public funds who have long term beaten the SP500 but these too are exceptions.
  • Preparing your Portfolio for Rate Cuts
    @WABAC: even OSTIX was down a penny. On the back of SMCI (+15.79%), DGIFX and NAEIX rose today. Comeuppance sure to follow soon.
  • MRFOX

    BaluBalu said:
    MRFOX down today 1.41% which is unusual.
    Take a peek at the top 10 holdings. ROST down -3.75%, ACGL -6.16%, DPZ -3.6%, TJX -2.23%.
    MRFOX is heavy on retail - consumer cyclicals. Retail had a bad day.
  • Cross Shore Discovery Fund will be liquidated
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1609706/000158064224006057/crossshore-497.htm
    497 1 crossshore-497.htm
    CROSS SHORE DISCOVERY FUND
    Institutional Shares
    Supplement dated October 7, 2024
    to the Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information dated July 29, 2024
    The Board of Trustees has determined that it is in the best interest of shareholders to liquidate the Cross Shore Discovery Fund (the “Fund”).
    As of the date of this supplement, the Fund is no longer accepting purchase orders for its shares and it will close effective December 31, 2024 (the “Closing Date”). Distributions to shareholders will be made within seven business days following the calculation of the December 31, 2024 net asset value of the Fund, which is expected to occur on or about January 29, 2024.
    Effective immediately, the Fund is no longer pursuing its investment objective. All holdings in the Fund’s portfolio are being liquidated, and the proceeds will be invested in money market instruments or held in cash.
    IMPORTANT INFORMATION FOR RETIREMENT PLAN INVESTORS
    If you are a retirement plan investor, you should consult your tax adviser regarding the consequences of a redemption of Fund shares. If you receive a distribution from an Individual Retirement Account (IRA) or a Simplified Employee Pension (SEP) IRA, you must roll the proceeds into another IRA within 60 days of the date of the distribution in order to avoid having to include the distribution in your taxable income for the year. If you are the trustee of a qualified retirement plan or the custodian of a 403(b)(7) custodian account (tax-sheltered account) or a Keogh account, you may reinvest the proceeds in any way permitted by its governing instrument.
    *****
    PLEASE RETAIN FOR FUTURE REFERENCE.
  • AlphaCentric Strategic Income Fund name change and sub-advisor change
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1355064/000158064224006059/alphstrategic-497.htm
    497 1 alphstrategic-497.htm
    AlphaCentric Strategic Income Fund
    Class A: SiiaX Class C: SiicX Class I: SiiiX
    (the “Fund”)
    October 7, 2024
    This information supplements certain information contained in the Prospectus, Summary Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information for the Fund, each dated August 1, 2024.
    ______________________________________________________________________________
    Effective on or about November 1, 2024, the Fund’s name will change to “AlphaCentric Real Income Fund”.
    Effective on or before November 5, 2024, AlphaCentric Advisors LLC intends to retain CrossingBridge Advisors, LLC (“CrossingBridge”) as the new investment sub-advisor to the Fund, subject to approval by the Board of Trustees of the Fund. CrossingBridge is a boutique investment firm specializing in corporate credit, with an emphasis on high yield debt and opportunistic credit. CrossingBridge manages over $3.2B in assets across nine funds and includes a management team of nine investment professionals with an average of 20+ years of investment experience. The Fund’s investment strategy and focus on real estate related securities will remain intact. Additional information regarding the sub-advisory services provided to the Fund will be made available on or before November 5, 2024.
    Effective on or before November 5, 2024, Goshen Rock Capital, LLC will no longer serve as the investment sub-adviser of the Fund.
    * * * * *
    You should read this Supplement in conjunction with the Prospectus, Summary Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information for the Fund, each dated August 1, 2024, which provide information that you should know about the Fund before investing. These documents are available upon request and without charge by calling the Fund toll-free at 1-844-ACFUNDS (1-844-223-8637) or by writing to 4221 North 203rd Street, Suite 100, Elkhorn, Nebraska 68022.
    Please retain this Supplement for future reference.
  • QQMNX is a Promising Alternative Fund
    I see a lot of chatter in this page and it seems a lot of it is surrounding FD. Without me having to digest all of it,
    1) what does FD say about the prospects going forward for QQMNX or the L/S category (the, QQMNX category)?
    2) Does he say it is a good category to be in, irrespective of specific fund's prowess?
    3) If yes, does he think QQMNX is a good fund to be in that category?
    4) If yes to 2 or 3, are his hoped for prospects for a trade or for B&H investing over 1, 3, or 5 yrs?
    I only need 1 or 2 word answers for the above. Pl note that I am only interested in prospects (future). I do not need any reasoning, because I trust anyone posting here is intellectually honest to the best of their abilities. I am perfectly OK if someone's crystal ball gives them a wrong answer.