So, when someone posts about a fund I own now and says, Well, in 2022, it lost more than another fund or in the last 10 years, this fund was better than another, I don't care, what matters is what the fund is doing now..
The problem is defining "now." A fund that does well for a few months or even a year would be bad reason FOR ME to jump in, perhaps you are different. If you have a fund that outperforms for years then that would be a reason for me to move...but just as often I find the fund reverts to the mean rather than continue to outperform, a point you acknowledge in another post. I totally get the idea of riding the wave of a winner, but find that strategy hard to implement in real life. Truth is it's very hard to beat buy and hold with solid funds over a long period of time, or even an index fund. I suspect many of us know that deep down, but just because I'm a bad golfer doesn't mean I dislike golf.
Actually, most funds trail the SP
500 with which has a very small expense ratio if you hold for decades. There is a good reason why Bogle and Buffett recommended the SP
500 for decades....and it's the easiest way to invest.
So, why are we discussing funds and trade?I came to a conclusion that I want to participate in the markets by using best risk/reward funds. The idea is to find good performance wide range funds with lower volatility, and that will result in a better sharp ratio. My basic system from 2000 to 2013 was to use a fund screener every 4-6 months and find the best
5 risk/reward funds for 1-3 months + 1-3 years and invest 20% in each. After I have done it several years, I learned a lot more about the managers, their history, and their weaknesses and strengths.
2008 was a waking call, I lost 2
5% in that year, and since then I have been searching for a way to control meltdowns. It took me another 10 years to master that concept, but this time by using special bond funds.
As you can see, it took me years of practice and tweaking. You just can't wake up one morning and be successful doing it.
Of course, bad calls are built into it, the idea is to lose very minimal (which in bondland is 0.1-0.2%) and make a lot more when I'm right. I'm not your typical trader, if my trade is right, I can stay in it for months until I find a better fund.
Now, at retirement, my portfolio is big enough that I only need to make inflation + 2-3%(of course, I want more) and why I don't need to take a lot of risk.
What is "now"?
Years ago, using my original system, 'now' used to be 1-3 months but I also looked at 1-3 years just to be sure the fund did well for the short+longer term.
Since 2017, "now" is the last 2-3 weeks and where better trading is needed
"now" also means investing in the best wide range funds, why you don't want to diversify, and exactly what I have done.