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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • MMNIX - Miller Market Neutral Income Fund
    You may be getting misled by its extremely short history. Eyeballing its performance graph at M*, it looks like it tracked the entire (20 fund) category pretty closely. That is, the 1.6 std dev is not something special for this fund, but rather it is typical of the whole category over this short time span.
    Here's a Portfolio Visualizer comparison of MMNIX with two other relative value arbitrage funds. The other two funds, LEOIX and PSCAX have had no negative months in the same 16 month span.
    LEOIX does have a slightly higher std dev (1.7), but has a 12.05% annualized return vs. 9.63% for MMNIX. This results in a Sharpe ratio of 3.76 vs. 2.75 for MMNIX.
    PSCAX has a lower std dev of 1.45, but one pays for that with a lower annualized return of 8.23% and a lower Sharpe ratio of 2.16.
    If you want to get a sense of what to expect from this fund over a significant period of time, you could look at how these other funds performed. Over ten years, they've each returned 3.9% annually, give or take a few basis points (per Fidelity).
    One doesn't need to look at alternatives for funds that offer a smooth a ride and decent performance. Here's a Fidelity comparison of PRFRX with LEOIX and PSCAX. PRFRX has outperformed PSCAX over 3, 5, and 10 years with a similar 3 year std dev. Its performance longer term is comparable to LEOIX with a 3 year std dev that's about 1/3 lower. And half the cost (ER) of both.
  • Franklin Advisors to convert following Putnam funds into ETFs
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/711402/000092881625000624/a_pgofp29.htm
    Putnam California Tax Exempt Income Fund
    Putnam Massachusetts Tax Exempt Income Fund
    Putnam Minnesota Tax Exempt Income Fund
    Putnam New Jersey Tax Exempt Income Fund
    Putnam New York Tax Exempt Income Fund
    Putnam Ohio Tax Exempt Income Fund
    Putnam Pennsylvania Tax Exempt Income Fund
    Putnam Short-Term Municipal Income Fund
    Putnam Tax-Exempt Income Fund
    Putnam Tax Free High Yield Fund
  • Putnam Intermediate-Term Municipal Income Fund will be liquidated
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1005942/000092881625000646/a_39212p1.htm
    497 1 a_39212p1.htm PUTNAM FUNDS TRUST
    39212-P1 05/25
    SUPPLEMENT DATED May 19, 2025
    TO THE SUMMARY PROSPECTUS AND PROSPECTUS
    OF PUTNAM INTERMEDIATE-TERM MUNICIPAL INCOME FUND
    At a meeting held on May 16, 2025, the Board of Trustees of Putnam Funds Trust (the “Trust”) approved a plan to liquidate Putnam Intermediate-Term Municipal Income Fund (the “Fund”), a series of the Trust (the “Plan”), upon recommendation by Franklin Advisers, Inc., the Fund’s investment adviser. The liquidation of the Fund is expected to occur on or about July 18, 2025 (the “Liquidation Date”), although the Fund may make dispositions of portfolio holdings prior to the Liquidation Date.
    Effective July 3, 2025, the Fund will be closed to new investors, and effective July 15, 2025, the Fund will be closed to new purchases from existing investors, with limited exceptions, in anticipation of the liquidation. Shareholders can redeem their shares from the Fund at any time on or before the close of business on July 18, 2025 at the then-current net asset value.
    As soon as reasonably practicable after the Liquidation Date, after the payment of (or provision for) all charges, taxes, expenses and liabilities, whether due or accrued or anticipated, of the Fund, and after determination of any dividend(s) to be paid pursuant to the Plan, the Fund will liquidate its remaining assets and distribute cash pro rata to all remaining shareholders as of July 18, 2025 who have not previously redeemed all of their Fund shares or exchanged their Fund shares for those of another Putnam fund.
    Shareholders should consult their tax advisors about the tax implications of the liquidation of the Fund.
    Shareholders should retain this Supplement for future reference.
  • MMNIX - Miller Market Neutral Income Fund
    MMNIX - Came across this "relative value arbitrage" fund that has a really nice, smooth run during the past few months. How many funds can say that? In its brief 16 month life, MMNIX had only 1 negative month (-0.20%).
    The Miller Market Neutral Income Fund (MMNIX) has a $1 million minimum, which is an issue for the average investor. The Class A version (MMNAX) has not yet been rolled out despite being listed on the prospectus. I am inquiring with Miller as to whether Class A and C will ever be available.
    https://www.millerfamilyoffunds.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/Miller-Market-Neutral-Fund-MMNIX-Q1-2025-Fact-Sheet.pdf
    I appreciate a low SD fund (1.6) that can return ~10% per year. A little more history would be nice, of course.
  • Moody's Downgraded US Debt From Aaa to Aa1
    Fact, the Moody downgrade was a non-event.
    The SP500 was up.
    And this remark addresses the issues raised... how?
    Not at all. Sure, there's always money to be made. And everyone is free to ignore our collective mutual responsibility to each other. We can live ethically, or unethically, or amorally. No one can force you to care about anyone else.
    1 Timothy 6:10 communicates a great deal of wisdom.
  • Moody's Downgraded US Debt From Aaa to Aa1
    Fact, the Moody downgrade was a non-event.
    The SP500 was up.
    Go ahead and tax the rich and start with Hollywood.
  • Moody's Downgraded US Debt From Aaa to Aa1
    JP Morgan chief warns of ‘complacency’ as markets look past credit downgrade
    Jamie Dimon says possibility of stagflation far higher than investors realize as markets shake off Moody’s triple-A cut
    Following are excerpts from a current report in The Guardian:
    JP Morgan chief executive Jamie Dimon warned on Monday that investors were being too complacent as markets shook off news that the US has lost its last triple-A credit rating amid fresh concern over the federal government’s burgeoning debt pile.
    Credit ratings agency Moody’s dealt a blow to Washington on Friday when it stripped the US of its top-notch rating, downgrading the world’s largest economy by one notch to AA1 and become becoming the last of the big three agencies to drop its triple-A rating for the US.
    The announcement unnerved markets on Monday morning, but stock markets had recovered by the end of the day. Speaking at JP Morgan’s annual investor day meeting in New York, Dimon warned against complacency. “We have huge deficits; we have what I consider almost complacent central banks. You all think they can manage all this. I don’t think [they can],” he said.
    Dimon said he saw an “extraordinary amount of complacency” and added that he believes the possibility of stagflation – a recession with rising prices – was far higher than investors believe.
    On Wall Street, the benchmark S&P 500 fell during early trading, before recovering its losses to close marginally higher, while the tech-focused Nasdaq also closed broadly flat after reversing early declines. The FTSE 100 rose 0.2% in London.
    Bond markets also came under pressure, with the yield on 30-year US treasury bonds climbing 13 basis points to 5.026%. Yields rise as bond prices drop; an increase signals that investors are seeking a higher return for holding US debt. The dollar weakened against a basket of currencies.
    “Over the next decade, we expect larger deficits as entitlement spending rises while government revenue remains broadly flat,” said Moody’s. “In turn, persistent, large fiscal deficits will drive the government’s debt and interest burden higher. The US’s fiscal performance is likely to deteriorate relative to its own past and compared with other highly rated sovereigns.”
  • Moody's Downgraded US Debt From Aaa to Aa1
    As I wrote before, Moody's is late to the party. In that sense, Bessent is correct that Moody's is a lagging indicator. However, Moody's is also correct that there has been an "increase over more than a decade in government debt and interest payment ratios to levels that are significantly higher than similarly rated sovereigns.”
    The "more than a decade" that Moody's is looking at started in 2013 when Congress, with bipartisan support, made the Bush tax cuts permanent.
    Right through 2012, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) was projecting declining debt through 2037 (25 years).
    Under the extended baseline scenario, which generally adheres closely to current law, federal debt would gradually decline over the next 25 years—from an estimated 73 percent of GDP this year to 61 percent by 2022 and 53 percent by 2037. ...
    ...
    The budget outlook is much bleaker under the extended alternative fiscal scenario, which maintains what some analysts might consider “current policies,” as opposed to current laws. Federal debt would grow rapidly from its already high level, exceeding 90 percent of GDP in 2022.
    https://www.cbo.gov/publication/43288
    In 2013, after making the Bush tax cuts permanent, the CBO offered this outlook:
    CBO produced an extended baseline for this report that extrapolates those projections through 2038 (and, with even greater uncertainty, through later decades). Under the extended baseline, budget deficits would rise steadily and, by 2038, would push federal debt held by the public close to the percentage of GDP seen just after World War II—even without factoring in the harm that growing debt would cause to the economy.
    ...
    [U]nder the assumptions of the extended baseline, CBO projects [b]y 2038, the deficit would be 6½ percent of GDP, larger than in any year between 1947 and 2008, and federal debt held by the public would reach 100 percent of GDP, more than in any year except 1945 and 1946. With such large deficits, federal debt would be growing faster than GDP, a path that would ultimately be unsustainable.
    https://www.cbo.gov/publication/44521
    Moody's did not pull "over a decade" out of a hat because a decade sounds like a nice round number. It started at 2013 for a reason. And now, even without extending the Trump tax cuts, CBO is projecting deficits to run around about 6.1% of GDP annually over the next decade. That's not much less than 6½ and likewise unsustainable.
  • Reality check (closed, this has sort of run its course)
    I've been active on several investment sites for over 15 years, and MFO stands out as one of the best.
    It’s a unique platform with valuable insights, thoughtful discussions, and a long-standing community. Unfortunately, it's also the only investment site I’ve seen where political posts—by a huge margin from one side of the aisle—have hijacked the conversation and driven incivility to the forefront. No other investment forum I follow has experienced this to the same extent.
    This site has been read and respected by hundreds over the years. Every few weeks, I make an effort to help bring back the original spirit of MFO—an investment-focused space grounded in respectful, insightful dialogue.
  • Moody's Downgraded US Debt From Aaa to Aa1
    A key expression in Moody's press release is "Without adjustments to taxation and spending".
    What does "without adjustments" mean? There are two interpretations: under current law and under current policy. If you were to say this sounds like doublespeak, I wouldn't disagree. Nevertheless, the former means literally as the law is written, i.e. with the 2017 tax cuts expiring, while the latter means that the "policy" of reduced taxes continues unabated.
    https://bipartisanpolicy.org/explainer/the-2025-tax-debate-all-about-that-baseline/
    What Moody's is using as its base case is not current law, but current policy. While that's likely to happen, it is still hypothetical as Moody's acknowledges. The GOP has tried to position this as not costing a dime, let alone an extra $4T over the next decade. "Key Senate leaders are endorsing the idea that tax cuts are not really tax cuts at all, and thus have no cost."
    https://taxpolicycenter.org/taxvox/no-matter-how-congress-labels-it-extending-2017-tax-cuts-will-cost-4-trillion-plus
    While maintaining current policy would cause the debt to rise to 134% of GDP by 2035, a budget under current law wouldn't be that much better. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that the federal debt would still rise to 118% of GDP. In dollars, the debt would rise from its current $30.1T to $52.1T in 2035.
    https://bipartisanpolicy.org/blog/visualizing-cbos-budget-and-economic-outlook-2025/
  • Moody's Downgraded US Debt From Aaa to Aa1
    Moody's downgrade of U.S. government debt is kind of a non-event.
    The other two major credit rating agencies already downgraded this debt years ago.
    However, we should heed Moody's rationale.
    Here is their rationale, in part:
    "Over more than a decade, US federal debt has risen sharply due to continuous fiscal deficits.
    During that time, federal spending has increased while tax cuts have reduced government revenues.
    As deficits and debt have grown, and interest rates have risen,
    interest payments on government debt have increased markedly."

    "Without adjustments to taxation and spending, we expect budget flexibility to remain limited,
    with mandatory spending, including interest expense, projected to rise to around 78%
    of total spending by 2035 from about 73% in 2024. If the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act is extended,
    which is our base case, it will add around $4 trillion to the federal fiscal primary
    (excluding interest payments) deficit over the next decade.
    "

    "Underpinning the rating is our assumption that the US' institutions and governance will not materially weaken,
    even if they are tested at times. In particular, we assume that the long-standing checks and balances
    between the three branches of government and respect for the rule of law will remain broadly unchanged.
    In addition, we assess that the US has capacity to adjust its fiscal trajectory,
    even as policy decision-making evolves from one administration to the next."
  • Any good sources for CEF performance in 2008? / Question answered. Thanks all!
    Hi @Mark Thank you.
    Total Return link is interesting and useful.
    We've always performed simple math for inflation and eventual taxation of our investments and what the 'real return' will become.
    In the pre-internet days with access to data via the WSJ and Baron's, I used 5% for annual inflation impact to be ahead of the curve (hopefully). The was during the period of some very serious inflation for many of we 'older' investors.
    However, equity/bond investing has provided more than the bank/cu accounts so many folks have used for many years. And the knowledge gained in all things financial over the years has allowed us to award our own degrees in 'economics' to ourselves. :) We've been able to share and pass along the knowledge.
    Compound, compound, compound !!!
    Remain curious,
    Catch
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Bunch of stuff today.
    Moved 3rd and final 5-figure slug this summer into cash for ongoing home infrastructure project. Would have preferred to use home equity - but not at current rates. (Funds are held under Roth IRA umbrella until actually spent).
    In the process, I re-jiggered my allocations. Reduced OEF “Core” target from around 68% to 62%; slightly raised CEF basket target from 25% to 28%. Added FMY to CEF basket (now 15 holdings). Raised target cash position from 7.5% to 10%. Net-Net: Slightly less risk on the table going forward.
  • Wisconsin Capital Funds converts class A shares to investor shares
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1395397/000089418925003895/plumbfunds497e-may2025usbm.htm
    497 1 plumbfunds497e-may2025usbm.htm 497
    Filed pursuant to Rule 497(e)
    1933 Act File No. 333-141917
    1940 Act File No. 811-22045
    WISCONSIN CAPITAL FUNDS, INC.
    PLUMB BALANCED FUND
    PLUMB EQUITY FUND
    (collectively, the “Funds”)
    Supplement dated May 19, 2025
    to the Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information (“SAI”)
    dated August 1, 2024, as supplemented August 29, 2024
    1.Based on the recommendation of Wisconsin Capital Management, LLC, the Board of Directors of the Wisconsin Capital Funds, Inc. has approved converting Class A Shares of the Funds to Investor Shares of the Funds.
    Effective as of the date of this supplement, Class A Shares will no longer be available for purchase. After the close of business on June 27, 2025 (the “Effective Date”), the Funds will convert Class A Shares into Investor Shares and the Class A Shares will thereafter be abolished. Prior to the conversion, shareholders of Class A Shares may redeem their investments as described in the Funds’ Prospectus. Depending on the tax status of the shareholder and whether or not the account is invested through a tax-deferred arrangement such as a 401(k) plan account, such redemption may be a taxable event resulting in taxable income to the shareholder. Please consult your own tax advisor on this issue.
    If shares are not redeemed prior to the Effective Date, each shareholder owning Class A Shares of the Funds will own Investor Shares with an aggregate net asset value equal to the aggregate net asset value of Class A Shares held by such holder immediately prior to the conversion. The conversion will be effected without the imposition of any sales charge or other charge. The conversion is not expected to be considered a taxable event for federal income tax purposes...
  • Moody's Downgraded US Debt From Aaa to Aa1
    Treasury yields rise as expected from Moody's downgrade on Monday, May 19, 2025. 30 years yield rose over 5.0%, all time high for the year.
    https://cnbc.com/2025/05/19/us-treasury-yields-moodys-downgrades-us-credit-rating.html
  • Moody's Downgraded US Debt From Aaa to Aa1
    The sovereign ceiling rule (that corporate lenders should not have a higher credit rating than the sovereign debt) is applied by many credit rating agencies. This is a rule of thumb, not an ironclad rule, though agencies tend to apply it strictly especially to financial institution lenders.
    Credit rating agencies are inclined to apply a de-facto sovereign ceiling rule, wherein the domestic bank ratings are bounded by their sovereign credit rating (Adelino and Ferreira, 2016), even when they maintain higher creditworthiness. ... The rationale for applying the rule is based on economic reasoning, particularly in relation to the need to account for capital controls and the economic stress caused by a sovereign downgrade.
    https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1544612320316287
    Moody's and Standard & Poor's historically have applied the sovereign ceiling concept in practice fairly strictly
    https://www.financeasia.com/article/the-sovereign-ceiling-now-a-broad-consensus-on-its-permeability/32286 (2001)
  • Peak Shale Has Arrived?
    Well, peak shale at current prices.
    Oil prices have fallen to $62.49 a barrel, down about 13% since Trump’s early April tariff blitz. That price is roughly equivalent to about $45 in 2015 dollars—below the average price that sent the oil industry into a painful downturn that year.
    “On an inflation-adjusted basis, current prices are at amongst the lowest they’ve ever been,” Paul McKinney, CEO of Permian driller Ring Energy, said in an interview. Prices should be around $85 a barrel to encourage companies to drill, he said.
  • How AI could end the ETF boom
    Perhaps a sign of things to come......
    Axios Article:
    How AI could end the ETF boom
    Generated Assets AI Tool:

    Turn any idea into an investable index