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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • WealthTrack Interview: The Shale Oil Revolution
    Yes - “challenging ride”. I’m not speculating on the sector anymore (other than a small position in a real assets fund (PRAFX). But I once did. Crude bottomed at around $26 in early 2016. It’s now back above $70 (varies slightly by grade). So that’s been a nice recovery and puts the price within reach of the $100+ where it topped out around 2014. Nat gas (a byproduct of crude drilling) hasn’t budged since early 2016. Stubbornly holding below $3. That’s a constant curiosity to me. How do you spell GLUT?
    From an investing principal standpoint, I believe in maintaining a small exposure (5-15%) to the area of natural resources, of which oil is a part. However, from a pocketbook standpoint, it hasn’t paid off over the past decade. These kinds of cycles appear to play out not in years - but over decades,
    Funds? PRNEX (T. Rowe Price New Era) has always maintained a heavy exposure to the oil sector and is a well managed, reasonable ER fund).
  • Seafarer Fund's Thoughts on China
    Thanks @Sven...great additional information on your personal journey with this manager.
    Upside Capture has struggled while his downside capture, while not great short term is better long term:
    image
    Hard to find funds that do both of these consistently well.
    2016 Study:
    Ability to Capture Up Market Gains and Avoid Down Market Losses: The Upside and Downside Capture Ratios
    The Upside and Downside Capture Ratios
    image
  • PRBLX finally dumps WFC
    WF is the 3rd largest holding in both DODGX (don’t own) and DODBX (do own). In the latter (a balanced fund) WF accounts for 2.5% of holdings. WF is up 12% over the past year. I respect the decision of a manager to unload a company that has exhibited such poor ethical standards as WF. In some of the cases cited the reason for selling doesn’t appear to be based as much on ethical standards as the fact that a criminal investigation + civil lawsuits presents a whole new series of unknowns - detracting from the company’s desirability as an investment.
    I won’t criticize D&C for continuing to hold the fund. The question that’s often asked (and never fully answered): When one starts excluding from their investment portfolios stocks of companies with whom they have basic moral / ethical disagreements, where does it stop?
    Is marketing to the public destructive weapons better suited for warfare any less objectionable than peddling unwanted insurance or misleading a home buyer at closing? In the second instance, money is lost. But in the first, the consequence is often loss of life. Is marketing a highly addictive often abused medication any less objectionable? How about exporting high paying U.S. jobs to low-wage third world nations? Should you rid from your portfolio those corporations known to have cheated on taxes in the past or to have deprived workers / retirees of previously earned pension benefits? Finally, what do you do when the manager of your highly successful high-octane mutual fund voices support for (and contributes to) a candidate or office holder whom you detest?
  • Seafarer Fund's Thoughts on China
    @bee,
    Not trying to be nitpick here. Please let me clarify what I said earlier. Prior to forming SFGIX, Andrew Foster was the lead manager of several Asia-centric funds at Matthews Asia Funds since 1998. This places his track record back to 20 years, not 10 years. His stellar record is exemplified in Matthews Asia Growth & Income fund, MACSX from 2003-2011 (8 years), the Dividend fund, MAPIX for 6 years and the India fund, MINDX for 5 years.
    David Snowball has written a detailed profile on Foster's approach and I couldn't come close to write a such as thoughtful analysis. So here is the link.
    mutualfundobserver.com/2013/03/seafarer-overseas-growth-income-sfgix/
    I started to invest with MACSX in 2000 when I noticed the fund is holding up much better than VWO during the height of tech bubble from 2000-2002. It taught me a lesson that those "tortoise" funds are more likely to be successful for their investors because they limit the downside loss. When the annual returns are compounded over time and through several market cycles, the total return can be fully captured. Many investors who move in and out of the mutual funds tend to have much lower returns than the market returns.
    Coincidentally, I also like MAPIX (Bob Horrocks), FMIJX (Alex English), and PRWCX (David Giroux).
  • WealthTrack Interview: The Shale Oil Revolution
    An investment 10 years ago in VGENX has been a challenging ride. I really would like to get excited by this sector. A better 10 year play has been FSCHX which uses OIl & Gas as its feed stock or Utilities such as GASFX and FSUTX which transport and covert these resources into electricity.
    10 years chart comparing these funds:
    image
  • WealthTrack Interview: The Shale Oil Revolution
    We don't seem to spend enough time discussing the implications of being the world's #1 Oil & Gas producer once again.
    The shale oil revolution. Oil and gas guru Tom Petrie explains the new world order and its investment opportunities.
    https://wealthtrack.com/energy-guru-tom-petrie-on-the-u-s-new-found-dominance-as-the-worlds-number-one-oil-producer
  • Seafarer Fund's Thoughts on China
    M* has a long current discussion of SFGIX:
    http://socialize.morningstar.com/NewSocialize/forums/p/384620/3946110.aspx#PageIndex=1
    A poster there pointed out it is 50/50 EM/developed markets.
  • Seafarer Fund's Thoughts on China
    @Sven. SFGIX hasn't been around for 10 years. Inception date looks like 2/15/2012...so closer to 6 years. I'll agree that it has out performed the index (a fund such as VWO), but SFGIX is not an all equity fund (closer to 70/15/15 over its lifetime).
    70% EM
    15 % of his fund is in LT and IT Treasuries
    15% of his fund is classified as "Ex - US Develop"
    I compared his fund to a "2 fund combo of PRMSX & PREMX" (70/30). The trade off here is SFGIX opts for US Treasuries where PREMX is most EM Corporates.
    Similar results...so nothing special here.
    But, over shorter time frames he does a good job of managing downside risk.
    I Like MAPIX, FMIJX, PRWCX for the same reason.
    Fund managers that manage downside risk and deploy into opportunities are hard to find.
  • Seafarer Fund's Thoughts on China
    Please read David Snowball's write up on SFGIX again. I continue to invest with Andrew Foster since the time when he managed Matthews Gro&Inc fund. Over the 10 years period he made more money for me than the Vanguard EM Index fund in mt 401(K). His funds tend to excel during the down market while they lag in the bull market. His long term record speaks for itself. In 2008 his fund outperformed the EM index by 20%. But everybody need to decide the amount of EM exposure they need with respect to their risk tolerance. These days there are not many great managers left in the EM space.
  • Seafarer Fund's Thoughts on China
    The eternal question: is it a solid fund to add to after a bad year or has it lost its mojo? I see no reason (manager change, asset bloat, etc.) for the latter. I have just a toehold in it in my solo 401K (along with a bigger stake in its partner SIVLX) and might add to it.
    But I tend to hold on to funds way too long and fall into value traps.
  • a second gentle reminder
    Damn. I closed the wrong page. Had part of a contribution erased. Here we go again: SOURCES: How about well-known George Will? He has my respect and admiration. Thoughtful, intelligent. Even though I most often disagree with him, apart from his writings about baseball. I want to mention William F. Buckley, but he's passed on. And G. Will raised a disabled son together with his wife. THAT takes BIG balls.
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/this-sad-embarrassing-wreck-of-a-man/2018/07/17/d06de8ea-89e8-11e8-a345-a1bf7847b375_story.html?utm_term=.ec9c2cd14c1c
  • Marsico Flexible Capital Fund reorganization
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1047112/000139834418010656/fp0034773_497.htm
    As previously communicated to shareholders in a supplement dated May 25, 2018, and an information statement/prospectus dated July 2, 2018, the reorganization of the Marsico Flexible Capital Fund (or “Acquired Fund”) with and into the Marsico Global Fund (or “Surviving Fund”) (the “Reorganization”) is expected to take place on or about August 3, 2018.
    Regarding the Flexible Capital Fund/Acquired Fund, on August 1, 2018, in anticipation of the Reorganization, the Flexible Capital Fund/Acquired Fund expects to make a distribution to its shareholders who are holders of record as of July 31, 2018, which will have the effect of distributing to its shareholders all of the Flexible Capital Fund’s/Acquired Fund’s investment company taxable income, if any, for the taxable period ending on or about August 3, 2018 (computed without regard to any deduction for dividends paid) and all of its net capital gains, if any, realized in the taxable period ending on or about August 3, 2018 (after reduction for any available capital loss carry forwards). Such distributions may be included in the taxable income of Flexible Capital Fund/Acquired Fund shareholders, depending on a shareholder’s tax status. Please refer to the Marsico Funds’ website for additional information concerning the distribution.
    Regarding the Global Fund/Surviving Fund, Marsico Capital Management, LLC (“MCM”), the Funds’ investment adviser, has entered into an expense limitation agreement with the Fund in which MCM has agreed to reduce the current contractual net expense cap for the Fund by 5 basis points from 1.50% to 1.45% upon the closing of the Reorganization at least through September 30, 2019...
  • Lazard US Realty Income Portfolio reorganization
    updated:
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/874964/000093041318002396/c91743_497.htm
    497 1 c91743_497.htm
    THE LAZARD FUNDS, INC.
    Lazard US Realty Income Portfolio
    Supplement to Current Summary Prospectus and Prospectus
    At a special meeting of shareholders held on July 27, 2018 (the “Meeting”), shareholders of Lazard US Realty Income Portfolio (the “Acquired Portfolio”), a series of The Lazard Funds, Inc. (the “Fund”), approved a Plan of Reorganization (the “Plan”) with respect to the Acquired Portfolio and Lazard US Realty Equity Portfolio (the “Acquiring Portfolio”), also a series of the Fund. The Plan provides for the transfer of the Acquired Portfolio’s assets to the Acquiring Portfolio in a tax-free exchange for shares of the Acquiring Portfolio and the assumption by the Acquiring Portfolio of the Acquired Portfolio’s stated liabilities, the distribution of such shares of the Acquiring Portfolio to Acquired Portfolio shareholders and the subsequent termination of the Acquired Portfolio (the “Reorganization”).
    The Reorganization currently is anticipated to become effective on or about August 17, 2018 (the “Closing Date”). In anticipation of the Reorganization, effective March 2, 2018 (the “Sales Discontinuance Date”), the Acquired Portfolio was closed to any investments for new accounts, although shareholders of the Acquired Portfolio as of the Sales Discontinuance Date may continue to make additional purchases and to reinvest dividends and capital gains into their existing Acquired Portfolio accounts up until the Closing Date.
    A Prospectus/Proxy Statement with respect to the Reorganization was mailed to Acquired Portfolio shareholders as of March 29, 2018, the record date for voting at the Meeting. The Prospectus/Proxy Statement describes the Acquiring Portfolio and other matters relevant to the Reorganization. Acquired Portfolio shareholders may obtain a free copy of the Prospectus/Proxy Statement at www.lazardassetmanagement.com/docs/-m0-/67038/LazardUSRealtyIncomePortfolioProxyStatement.pdf or by calling (800) 823-6300.
    Dated: July 27, 2018
  • Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining Fund to change name (and possibly more?)
    The fund's already gone through minor (no pun intended) tweaks. I believe it started out as Gold and Precious Metals. From its 1994 prospectus:
    The Gold & Precious Metals Portfolio invests in the equity securities of
    foreign and domestic companies engaged in the exploration, mining,
    fabrication, processing, or marketing and distribution of gold, silver,
    platinum, diamonds or other precious and rare metals and minerals. The
    Portfolio may also invest up to 20% of its assets directly in gold,
    silver or other precious metal bullion and coins.
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/734383/0000893220-94-000267.txt
    In May 2001, it changed from a diversified fund to a nondiversified fund:
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/734383/000093247101500144/precmetals523.txt
    Apparently at or near the same time, it dropped the "Gold" from its name, becoming simply Precious Metals,. The next change came May 24, 2004. Mining was added to the name, and mining stocks played a bigger role in the portfolio:
    FUND TO REOPEN WITH BROADER INVESTMENT MANDATE AND NEW NAME
    Effective on or about May 24, 2004, Vanguard Precious Metals Fund will reopen to
    investors with a broader investment mandate and a new name.
    The board of trustees has decided to expand the fund's investment mandate.
    On the effective date of this change, the fund will invest at least 80% of its
    assets in the stocks of foreign and U.S. companies principally engaged in the
    exploration, mining, development, fabrication, processing, marketing, or
    distribution of (or other activities related to) metals or minerals. The
    majority of these companies will be principally engaged in activities related to
    gold, silver, platinum, diamonds, or other precious and rare metals or minerals.
    The remaining companies will be principally engaged in activities related to
    nickel, copper, zinc, or other base and common metals or minerals.
    The board of trustees acted in response to the increasing concentration of
    the metals and minerals industries, a trend that limited the options available
    to the fund's investment advisor. The decline in the number of precious metals
    issues on the market, combined with the advisor's stringent quality criteria,
    made it difficult to keep the portfolio fully invested while maintaining the
    overall quality and diversity of its holdings. The trustees therefore decided to
    broaden the range of stocks in which the fund can invest while adhering to its
    traditional investment strategies.
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/734383/000093247104000482/precious032004.txt
    I have no idea what Vanguard is trying to do with this latest change. Investing in companies/industries with declining CAPEX sounds like investing in cash cows. That's an income play, the opposite of what I'd expect from a fund that will continue to keep over 25% in precious metals and mining.
    I'm confused.
  • Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining Fund to change name (and possibly more?)
    They sure need to change something. :)
    Currently the top 10 holdings all appear to be miners and make up over 40% of the fund’s investments. The fund lags most other mining funds for 1 & 5 years. Admittedly, mining hasn’t been a great place to be over that time. The 0.36% ER is low. But, for whatever reason, resource funds generally have lower ERs than might be expected.
    Couldn’t tell from the blurb exactly what they intend to change besides the name. Would guess they’ll move more to an infrastructure approach while retaining a sizable exposure to the miners. With a mandate like “infrastructure” the door is pretty much wide open to a variety of investments. Price used to include financials in their old infrastructure fund. The idea was that if a company loaned money to infrastructure companies or projects it belonged in an infrastructure fund. (TRP closed the fund in 2014, merging it into their Real Assets fund, PRAFX.)
  • Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining Fund to change name (and possibly more?)
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/734383/000093247118006377/globalcapitalcycles485a.htm
    Investor Shares
    Vanguard Global Capital Cycles Fund Investor Shares (VGPMX)*
    (*Formerly known as Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining Fund)
  • Manning & Napier Fund, Inc.'s Strategic Income Conservative Series (I & S classes) to liquidate
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/751173/000119312518228850/d566740d497.htm
    497 1 d566740d497.htm MANNING & NAPIER FUND, INC.
    MANNING & NAPIER FUND, INC.
    (the “Fund”)
    Supplement dated July 27, 2018 to the Prospectus, Summary Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information (“SAI”) dated May 1, 2018 for the following Series and Classes of the Fund:
    Strategic Income Conservative Series (the “Series”)
    Class I and S
    This supplement provides new and additional information beyond that contained in the Prospectus, Summary Prospectus, and Statement of Additional Information, and should be read in conjunction with those documents.
    The Board of Directors of the Fund has voted to terminate the offering of shares of the Strategic Income Conservative Series and instructed the officers of the Fund to take all steps necessary to completely liquidate the Series. Accordingly, effective immediately, the Series will be closed to new investors. Effective August 31, 2018, the Series will stop selling its shares to existing shareholders and will no longer accept automatic investments from existing shareholders.
    The Series will redeem all of its outstanding shares on or about September 27, 2018 and distribute the proceeds to the Series’ shareholders (subject to maintenance of appropriate reserves for liquidation and other expenses).
    As is the case with other redemptions, each shareholder’s redemption, including a mandatory redemption, will constitute a taxable disposition of shares for those shareholders who do not hold their shares through tax-advantaged plans. Shareholders should contact their tax advisors to discuss the potential income tax consequences of the liquidation.
    As shareholders redeem shares of the Series between the date of this supplement and the date of the final redemption, and as the Series increases its cash positions to facilitate redemptions, the Series may not be able to continue to invest its assets in accordance with its stated investment policies. Accordingly, the Series may not be able to achieve its investment objectives during the period between the date of this supplement and the date of the final redemption.
    PLEASE RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT FOR FUTURE REFERENCE