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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Mutual funds ... who is adding to positions
    Who else considers political risk to be inhibiting new investment?
    For one, Henry Ellenbogen, highly successful fund manager at T. Rowe Price, who listed political risk as his chief concern in the Barron’s Mid-Year Roundtable published July 16. In specific Ellenbogen (who easily outdistanced the 8 other participants with his January picks) cautioned that he thinks the Democrats will take control of the House after the mid-terms and that the already serious political strife (which occasionally surfaces on this board) will intensify sharply and the results will be felt in the markets. Not sure, but I think he sees a paralysis of sorts preventing any meaningful fiscal / economic reform. Yes, it is very much affecting his decision making - making him more cautious. I think it’s fair to say most of the other 8 participants more or less concurred - but in less conspicuous fashion. The Trump initiated trade wars was another problem area a number mentioned. Unfortunately @Ted who “linked” the article wasn’t - as far as I know - able to do so in a way that was accessible to anyone else. (I read it in print.)
    Myself? I’ve been looking for a year for some pocket of deep value (a depressed area) where I might speculate a bit and grab off an easy gain. Nothing. Everything looks pricy. Recently I moved some $$ from DODLX (global bond) into PREMX (emerging market bond). The former is ahead about 1.5% over the past year while the latter is off 2-3% over that time. Go with the percentages and figure over the next year or so that relative performance will invert. But, nothing big there - looking at very small advantage over a couple years. And yes, I do think this political mess will get worse before it gets better and there will be a price to be paid by investors. But exactly when, how, and what? Dunno.
    Added: Gold’s off substantially over the past couple months (from around $1300 to around $1200). I consider it too risky to speculate in so have avoided the temptation to buy (more than I already own). Could go a lot lower. But for someone looking for an entry point (small allocation) this might not be a bad time.
  • Buffett’s Berkshire Stock Having Best Day In 7 Years After Buyback Policy Change
    FYI: (This is a follow-up article.)
    Shares of Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. were having their best day in nearly seven years on Wednesday, as Wall Street cheered the change in the diversified investment holding company’s share repurchase policy, with one analyst calling it a “major positive catalyst.”
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/buffetts-berkshire-stock-having-best-day-in-7-years-after-buyback-policy-change-2018-07-18/print
  • Auto Industry Pushes White House to Back Off Tariffs
    The Wall Street Journal is today reporting that car makers are warning the Trump administration of a ‘domino effect’ that would harm U.S. workers and the economy.
    "Auto makers, parts suppliers and dealers are joining forces to push back against the Trump administration’s proposal to apply tariffs of up to 25% on vehicles and components imported into the U.S., contending the administration’s trade policy will backfire and lead to higher prices and lost jobs."
    "Toyota Motor Corp. said it opposes the tariffs, because even though it builds cars in the U.S., it uses foreign-sourced parts that would be subject to the levy. For instance, about 30% of the parts used in a U.S.-built Toyota Camry come from outside the country. A tariff on those parts would increase the price of a Camry by $1,800, the company said."
    "The United Auto Workers union—which represents workers at General Motors Co. , Ford Motor Co. and Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV—has expressed support for the administration’s investigation, calling it “long overdue.” The union stopped short of endorsing the tariffs and instead urged a more “targeted” approach, such as taking measures to stop the influx of auto investment in Mexico in recent years."

    Note: This has been classified as a "Fund Discussion" because @Ted has decreed that this is allowable as long as a topic involves industries whose securities are held by Mutual Funds. And as we all know, Ted sets the rules.
  • Heartland International Value Fund to liquidate
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/809586/000089271218000338/hgi497.htm
    497 1 hgi497.htm
    Registration No. 33-11371
    1940 Act File No. 811-4982
    Filed Pursuant to Rule 497(e)
    HEARTLAND GROUP, INC.
    Heartland International Value Fund
    Investor Class Shares (HINVX)
    Institutional Class Shares (HNNVX)
    Supplement dated July 18, 2018 to
    Prospectus and Summary Prospectus,
    each dated May 1, 2018
    The Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Heartland Group, Inc. (the “Company”) has approved the liquidation of the Heartland International Value Fund (the “Fund”), subject to shareholder approval. Upon the recommendation of Heartland Advisors, Inc. (“Heartland”), the investment adviser to the Fund, the Board approved a Plan of Liquidation (the “Plan”) for the Fund on July 18, 2018. After considering a variety of factors, the Board concluded it was in the best interests of the Fund and its shareholders that the Fund be closed and liquidated as a series of the Company.
    The Board also determined to close the Fund to purchases and incoming exchanges after market close on July 18, 2018. Exceptions may be made in limited circumstances when approved by the officers of the Company where it is not operationally possible or otherwise impracticable to prohibit new purchases by an account.
    Although the Fund will be closed to purchases, you may continue to redeem your shares of the Fund as provided in the Fund’s prospectus or exchange your shares of the Fund for other Heartland Funds, as provided in the Fund’s prospectus. No redemption fees will be imposed by the Fund in connection with such redemptions or exchanges; however, please note that your financial intermediary may charge fees in connection with such redemptions or exchanges.
    You should note that on or about July 19, 2018, the Fund will no longer actively pursue its stated investment objectives and Heartland will begin to liquidate the Fund’s portfolio. The Fund’s portfolio managers will likely increase the Fund’s assets held in cash and cash equivalents in order to prepare for the orderly liquidation of the Fund and to meet anticipated redemption requests.
    Shareholders will receive a proxy statement discussing the Board’s decision to recommend the liquidation of the Fund and requesting that shareholders vote to approve the liquidation of the Fund pursuant to the Plan at a special meeting of shareholders. If the Plan is approved by shareholders, the Fund will be liquidated on or after the date of the shareholder meeting (the “Liquidation Date”). Any shareholders who have not redeemed their shares prior to the Liquidation Date will have their shares redeemed in cash and will receive one or more payments representing their proportionate interest in the net assets of the Fund as of the Liquidation Date, after the Fund has paid or provided for all taxes, expenses and any other liabilities, subject to any required withholdings. The automatic redemption of shares on the Liquidation Date will generally be treated the same as any other redemption of shares for tax purposes, so that shareholders (other than tax-qualified plans or tax-exempt accounts) will recognize gain or loss for federal income tax purposes on the redemption of their Fund shares in the liquidation. In addition, the Fund and its shareholders will bear transaction costs and tax consequences associated with the disposition of the Fund’s portfolio holdings prior to the Liquidation Date. The Fund expects to have declared and paid, by the Liquidation Date, a distribution or distributions, which, together with all previous such distributions, will have the effect of distributing to the Fund’s shareholders all of the Fund’s investment company taxable income and net capital gain, if any, realized in the taxable years ending at or prior to the Liquidation Date. The distribution or distributions may be reduced for any available capital loss carryforward and will include any additional amounts necessary to avoid federal excise tax. Shareholders should consult their tax adviser for further information about federal, state and local tax consequences relative to their specific situation. Because the Fund has been closed to new investments, including those made through the automatic reinvestment of Fund distributions, all distributions made after the date of this prospectus supplement will be paid in cash.
    Important Information for Retirement Plan Investors
    If you are a retirement plan investor, you should consult your tax adviser regarding the consequences of a redemption of Fund shares. If you hold your Fund shares through a tax-deferred retirement account, you should consult with your tax adviser or account custodian to determine how you may reinvest your redemption proceeds on a tax-deferred basis. If you will receive a distribution from an Individual Retirement Account (IRA) or a Simplified Employee Pension (SEP) IRA that is terminating as a result of the liquidation of the Fund, you must either roll the proceeds into another IRA within 60 days of the date of the distribution in order to avoid having to include the distribution in your taxable income for the year, if applicable, or request the distribution be made directly to another IRA or eligible retirement plan. Please note you can make only one tax-free rollover of a distribution you receive from an IRA to another (or the same) IRA in any 12-month period, regardless of the number of IRAs you own. If you receive a distribution from a 403(b)(7) custodial account (tax-sheltered account) or a Keogh account, you must roll the distribution into an eligible retirement plan within 60 days in order to avoid disqualification of the plan and inclusion of the distribution in your taxable income for the year. If you are the trustee of a qualified retirement plan or the custodian of a 403(b)(7) custodial account (tax-sheltered account) or a Keogh account, you may reinvest the proceeds in any way permitted by its governing instrument.
  • In Muni Land, The Yield Curve Never Inverts
    FYI: (If link doesn't work, Google article title,)
    Amid all the chatter about the yield curve and its possible inversion, investors and analysts focus solely on the Treasury market. But there are other fixed-income markets with their own yield curve, including the municipal market
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/in-muni-land-the-yield-curve-never-inverts-1531843839?mod=hp_highlight_4
  • The Breakfast Briefing: Futures Point To A Slightly Lower Open Amid Corporate Earnings, Data
    FYI: U.S. stock index futures pointed to a slightly lower open Wednesday morning, as investors monitor a flurry of corporate earnings and a fresh batch of economic data.
    Regards,
    Ted
    U.S. : (MarketWatch)
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stock-futures-fight-for-direction-with-powell-morgan-stanley-earnings-ahead-2018-07-18/print
    U.S.: (IBD)
    https://www.investors.com/market-trend/stock-market-today/dow-futures-google-stock-buy-apple-stock-american-express-five-below-near-breakouts/
    U.S.: (CNBC)
    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/18/futures-point-to-a-slightly-higher-open-amid-corporate-earnings-data.html
    U.K.: (Marketwatch)
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/easyjet-bhp-billiton-propel-ftse-100-higher-ahead-of-inflation-data-2018-07-18/print
    Europe: (MarketWatch)
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/easyjet-bhp-billiton-propel-ftse-100-higher-ahead-of-inflation-data-2018-07-18/print
    Europe: (Reuters)
    https://www.reuters.com/article/europe-stocks/update-1-tech-lifts-european-shares-as-currency-weakens-autos-up-idUSL8N1UE1PJ
    Europe: (CNBC)
    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/18/european-markets-earnings-google-in-focus.html
    Asia: (MarketWatch)
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/asian-stocks-rebound-japans-nikkei-continues-rally-on-weak-yen-2018-07-17/print
    Asia: (Reuters)
    https://www.reuters.com/article/japan-stocks-close/nikkei-rises-to-more-than-1-month-high-automakers-tech-shares-gain-idUSL4N1UE2I9
    Asia: (CNBC)
    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/18/asia-markets-stocks-dollar-earnings-and-fed-powell-remarks-in-focus.html
    Bonds: (CNBC)
    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/18/us-treasurys-mixed-as-investors-monitor-economic-data.html
    Currencies: (Reuters)
    https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-sterling/sterling-extends-its-fall-as-brexit-worries-mount-idUSKBN1K80JR
    Oil: (CNBC)
    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/18/oil-markets-focus-on-surprise-rise-in-us-inventories.html
    Gold: (CNBC)
    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/18/gold-markets-dollar-moves-in-focus-after-fed-comments.html
    Current Futures: Negative
    https://finviz.com/futures.ashx
  • PRGTX sells out of its large TSLA position (again)
    By the way we limited ourselves to a small allocation in TRP's Global Tech Fund. What concerned us was the heavily weighings in the top 10 stocks. On the other hands, we have more confident with Primecap Odyssey Aggressive Growth, POAGX, and their approach. the fund is closed to new investor, but the larger cap Primecap Odyssey Growth, POGRX, is open while using the same investment approach. Management fee is also reasonable.
  • PRGTX sells out of its large TSLA position (again)
    Thanks for the info, its position was way too large, but I bet those with the fund in a taxable account should be aware of potentially large cap gains fr 2018. This fund is my third largest position in portfolio
  • PRGTX sells out of its large TSLA position (again)

    FYI yesterday I posted over at M* that according to the TRP 6/30 disclosure, TRP's Global Tech Fund seems to have dumped TSLA very recently. So if you hold it, as I do, and been trimming the position b/c of Musk's ongoing displays of public weirdness (as I've done) this should put your mind at ease for a while. Tencent is now 11.7% allocation and their #1 holding.
    (ignore the M* holdings, they are still showing TSLA as #1 holding)
  • Brown Advisory – Macquarie Asia New Stars Fund to liquidate
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1548609/000089418918003759/baf-macquarie_497e.htm
    497 1 baf-macquarie_497e.htm SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIALS
    BROWN ADVISORY FUNDS
    Brown Advisory – Macquarie Asia New Stars Fund
    (the “Fund”)
    Supplement dated July 17, 2018
    to the Prospectus, the Summary Prospectus and the Statement of Additional Information
    dated October 31, 2017, as amended on June 15, 2018
    The Board of Trustees (the “Board”) of Brown Advisory Funds (the “Trust”), based upon the recommendation of Brown Advisory LLC (the “Adviser”), the investment adviser to the Fund, has determined to close and liquidate the Fund. The Board concluded that it would be in the best interests of the Fund and its shareholders that the Fund be closed and liquidated as a series of the Trust effective as of the close of business on August 30, 2018. Accordingly, the Board approved a Plan of Liquidation (the “Plan”) that determines the manner in which the Fund will be liquidated.
    The Board has determined to waive any applicable redemption fees and exchange fees for shares redeemed on or after July 16, 2018.
    Effective July 16, 2018, in anticipation of the liquidation, the Fund is no longer accepting purchases into the Fund. In addition, the Adviser will begin an orderly transition of the portfolio to cash and cash equivalents and the Fund will no longer be pursuing its investment objective. Shareholders of the Fund may redeem their investments as described in the Fund’s Prospectus.
    If you hold your shares in an IRA account, you have 60 days from the date you receive your proceeds to reinvest or “rollover” your proceeds into another IRA and maintain their tax-deferred status. You must notify the Fund’s transfer agent by telephone at 800-540-6807 (toll free) or 414-203-9064 prior to August 30, 2018, of your intent to rollover your IRA account to avoid withholding deductions from your proceeds.
    Pursuant to the Plan, if the Fund has not received your redemption request or other instruction prior to August 30, 2018, your shares will be redeemed on August 30, 2018, and you will receive your proceeds from the Fund, subject to any required withholding. These proceeds will generally be subject to federal and possibly state and local income taxes if the redeemed shares are held in a taxable account, and the proceeds exceed your adjusted basis in the shares redeemed.
    If the redeemed shares are held in a qualified retirement account such as an IRA, the redemption proceeds may not be subject to current income taxation. You should consult with your tax advisor on the consequences of this redemption to you.
    Shareholder inquiries should be directed to the Fund at 800-540-6807 (toll free) or 414-203-9064.
    Please retain this supplement for your reference.
  • Two Absolute Return Strategies For Uncertain Markets
    FYI: For U.S. equity investors, 2017 was about as good as it gets. The S&P 500 Index generated a return of 19.42 percent, posting gains in every single month of the year while avoiding any meaningful pullbacks. Furthermore, volatility, as measured by the VIX, was at historically low levels for much of the year. Thus far, the market environment in 2018 has proven significantly more difficult, and your clients may have questions about how to respond. In a time of lower returns and higher volatility, I believe absolute return strategies may offer an answer.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.fa-mag.com/news/two-absolute-return-strategies-for-uncertain-markets-39763.html?print
  • Jeffery Saut: Stealth Bull Market? Text Or Audio
    FYI: On CNBC last Friday, we stated that we have been in a stealth bull market. Indeed, after anticipating the stock market’s bottom in early February, the stealth bull market emerged. So what’s a stealth bull market? Well, while the major market indices are marginally better year-to-date (YTD), many of the other indices are up double digits. For example, the D-J Industrial Average is up some 1.21% YTD, while the S&P Small Cap 600 is up 11.70%, the NASDAQ Composite has rallied 13.36%, the NASDAQ 100 +15.31%, well you get the idea. Moreover, many of those indices have tagged new all-time highs, as have most of the Advance/Decline Lines. As our friend Leon Tuey writes:
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.raymondjames.com/wealth-management/market-commentary-and-insights/investment-strategy
  • Foreign Investment In The United States plunged 32% In 2017
    FYI: Foreign investors spent $259.6 billion to acquire, launch, and expand businesses in the United States in 2017, according to numbers released Wednesday by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis. That's down from an historic high of $439.5 billion in 2015.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://money.cnn.com/2018/07/11/news/economy/foreign-direct-investment-2017/index.html
  • Jim Cramer - These Costly Funds Could Be Ripping You Off
    "The companies that run these funds want your money."
    Like any service company does. Cramer's CNBC wants him to generate eyeballs, not money directly (that comes from advertisers), but it's the same thing.
    "The amount of money they make depends on the size of assets that are under management. That means their biggest incentive is not for an investor to do well."
    Cramer seems to be talking about people like himself, paid to draw customers rather than deliver quality service. It's not rare to see fund managers telling their management company to close their fund, because the managers care more about the quality of their service than AUM.
    Notice the use of pronouns in the quote. The amount of money the management company makes depends directly on AUM. The amount of money the fund manager makes is a bit more complicated (and usually not disclosed AFAIK).
    Several funds incorporate a fulcrum fee. With this fee, a management company takes in more if the fund outperforms and less if the fund underperforms. Presumably some of that is passed along to the fund manager. Lewis had a Barron's article a few months ago on this (cited in another thread), subscription or google search required.
    "To make matters worse, mutual funds also charge some of the highest fees in the business."
    As a former hedge fund manager, highest fees in the business are something Cramer should know well. Hedge funds usually charge 2% of AUM (way higher then most mutual funds), plus 20% of the gain (with no give back for losing money).
    He's just pushing his program (going for eyeballs "under management"): "I figure you can beat the performance of an index fund by picking stocks yourself [but a fund manager can't]. Which is the entire reason I do this show every night." That's from the first video, just 1m long.
  • Jim Cramer - These Costly Funds Could Be Ripping You Off
    Hello dear MFO everyone. I rarely post here (the tone is tricky to engage with) but I read often and am grateful for the many perspectives on financial health and responsibility that many share. So for that: a big thank you.
    I just wanted to respond to Catch and Hank's note about people not having financial knowledge or desire to gain the knowledge. I grew up in a poor family in the Midwest. Both my parents worked hard but having money to pay the bills seemed to be what took up most of their time. Investing in the stock market wasn't remotely possible for my family which means there was almost no conversation about investing and managing monies. Flash forward and I was a young writer living in New York -- my "day job" was working as a temp ("word processing" -- remember that nostalgic term?). One of my temp assignments took me to an investment banking firm called The Portfolio Group which was a subsidiary of the old Chemical Bank -- 57th floor of Rockefeller Plaza. They invested money for wealthy individual and foundations. This was the late 1980s. I was just a guy doing word processing around a lot of conversations about millions of dollars. Some of the portfolio managers noticed that I was a curious guy (they knew I was an artist) and offered to tutor me about the stock market. They even convinced me to open an IRA, to fully fund it (it was $2,000 max in those days, I think) -- which I did and continued to do. They gave me articles to read, engaged me in conversations, and made me feel like I was someone who had the right to know more about financial/investing opportunities. That was all I needed -- someone taking an interest in me and my financial future. I've been invested through Fidelity for nearly 30 years now. And that was last temp job I ever had. I've made my living as a writer ever since (which means financially there have been some incredible years and some awful years). It also means I've been self-employed all these years and so my retirement is fully self-funded. One reason I can still do my work is because I invested fairly young and never stopped. But I needed help to not be intimidated. I was lucky to have gotten that help. I just wanted to point out that some folks come from families and places where the very idea of participating in the stock market is not possible. It isn't just laziness or disinterest. (And if anyone happens to read this from The Portfolio Group: thank you!)
    Sorry for the long post. I'll now go silent again! Thank you for reading.
  • Jim Cramer - These Costly Funds Could Be Ripping You Off
    Catch said, “Yes, there are millions who hold monies in IRA, 401k or 403b accounts, but my experience is that a very small percentage have much knowledge or desire to gain the knowledge.”
    Hi Catch. I’m afraid giving most people financial advice is akin to giving them health advice (ie “loose some weight dude”). It usually runs like water off a duck’s back.
    (Edit) Having said that ... I am eternally grateful to the co-worker who around 1971 tipped me off about our workplace 403B and recommended the (Templeton administered) plan. Getting started early - even in relatively small amounts - made a huge difference over time.