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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • POGRX and alternatives
    My choice for LCG is Guggenheim Pure Growth ETF RPG with 035% ER.
  • POGRX and alternatives
    @mcmarasco
    Hi Matt,
    I hold CCMAX within the specialty sleeve of my portfolio which is a half sister fund to your subject fund MFCFX. Thus far, I am pleased with CCMAX and plan to retain it.
    One of the things that I look at before kicking a fund to the curb is to determine my tax liability. Sometimes it is better to just keep what you might have over moving on.
    A fund that you might wish to look at is SPECX (Alger Spectra). It is a LCG fund which I hold in my large/mid cap sleeve. Its ten year average total return is 13.55%.
    Old_Skeet
  • EM Declines and Subsequent Allocation
    Crash is correct. You have to have a long term vision on these funds. Envision how much India will advance in the next decade or two. Or, Vietnam, Malaysia, etc. Some regions will advance over others. Will aggressions slow the advances in Eastern Europe? When will Africa ever advance?
    The key is to keep your allocation in proportion to your risk tolerance. 5-10% is an average number.
  • Commodities Funds Ideas
    @Joe
    Hi Joe,
    I am not by any means saying what I do is the right thing for everybody that reads this to follow. But, it is what I do.
    Commodities fall in the broad sectors of materials and energy within the S&P 500 Index. It seems that you wish, like me, to target at least five percent of your asset allocation to the materials area. First, I did an Instant Xray analysis of my portfolio to see just how much I hold in the materials sector. Then if I am short I use a commodity or precious metal fund to supplement. The two funds that I currently use to do this are JCRAX and SGGDX. You might wish to do an Instant Xray on each fund to see how they are comprised. Currently, I hold about six percent in the materials sector with JCRAX and SGGDX combined accounting for about only one percent. So, if I sold them off I’d be back to about the five percent targeted base line in materials. I see gold and silver currently as a good long term buy since they are now selling for around, and back of, their all in cost to mine.
    Since, materials are now out of favor with most in the investment community this, by my thinking, is an area of long range opportunity. So with this, I continue to target at least five percent to the materials sector and, at times, even more. Hopefully, over the next year, or so, the worm will turn and assets I bought that were out of favor will have appreciated. Know to, it can go the other way. So, I moderate and don’t try to make it all, so to speak, a one position bet on the “come line.” With this, I am also looking at other sectors for opportunity too.
    For me there are four minor sectors within the S&P 500 Index. They are materials, real estate, communication services, and utilities. I strive at keeping at least a five percent allocation to each of these sectors. This leaves the seven others as major sectors in which I strive to keep at least a nine percent allocation to each of these. They are consumer cyclical, financial services, energy, industrials, technology, consumer defensive, and healthcare. When done, this leaves about seventeen percent of the allocation that can be positioned based upon how I am reading the markets and wish to position based upon a sector allocation out look.
    Currently, I am one percent (overweight) in materials. I am about nine percent in energy and not carrying an overweight at this time. While in healthcare, technology, consumer cyclical, and financials I am three precent overweight in each. In utilities and communication services I am two percent overweight in each.
    I hope this has provided you with some helpful insight as to how I position and to my thinking.
    I wish you … “Good Investing.”
    Old_Skeet
  • Bond Funds That Will Lose Big With Rising Interest Rates
    FYI: Now that Fed tightening appears imminent, investors are wise to take a close look at the fixed income portion of their portfolio, especially if it consists of bond funds.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://investorplace.com/2015/03/bond-funds-will-lose-big-rising-interest-rates/print
  • EM Declines and Subsequent Allocation
    http://blogs.barrons.com/emergingmarketsdaily/2015/03/13/emerging-markets-markets-sink-2-5-for-week-unloved-but-resilient/?mod=djemb_dr_h
    This linked blog post from Barrons with analysis of performance and prospects of various EM economies from Deustche Bank has me wondering about my own allocation to emerging markets. For the last several years I've been reading about how this year is going to be the one for EMs, that dough is flowing into EMs, that valuations are favorable, and so forth. Fact of the matter is, my EM and FM funds (all the usual MFO suspects from Matthews, Grandeur Peak, Aberdeen, Morgan Stanley, and Lazard) haven't done squat since 2011, relative to my US holdings. I have reduced exposure in recent months, but haven't closed out any positions. Wondering how members are dealing with EMs. What are you taking for queasiness?
  • Jason Zweig: Going Robo: What Schwab’s Move Means For You
    FYI: ( Follow-Up Article)
    With giant discount brokerage Charles Schwab launching its Intelligent Portfolios service this past week, the fledgling industry of automated investment advice is going mainstream.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2015/03/13/going-robo-what-schwabs-move-means-for-you/tab/print/
  • Chuck Jaffe: 6 Factors Determine Who Gets To Be A Millionaire
    FYI: We all recognize “Who Wants to be a Millionaire?” as not just a popular game show, but also a ridiculous question.
    The obvious answer to the show’s title is, yes, everyone wants to be a millionaire, but few contestants or audience members can answer the requisite questions to achieve fast, televised wealth.
    A recent study by Fidelity Investments focused on what it takes to become a millionaire without the help of a game show, and found that many people have the ability to accrue tremendous wealth, but that their windows for such financial success are closing, often before they ever really take steps toward becoming rich.
    Fidelity’s seventh “Millionaire Outlook” study looked at the potential investors have for moving up toward millionaire status. The key group in the study was the “emerging affluent,” which would be the people who seem to have both the resources and the interest/ability to live out their seven-figure dream
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/6-factors-determine-who-gets-to-be-a-millionaire-2015-03-14/print
    Fidelity Study:
    https://fidelityinstitutional.fidelity.com/app/literature/view?itemCode=9863829&renditionType=pdf&pos=SR
  • Commodities Funds Ideas
    Commodities funds in general do not have a good record. There may be exceptions as always the case but I haven't seen one. A better idea would be to choose one commodity to track and invest in that. Gold is a classic choice.
    With that said, there is not a hard rule that anyone needs commodities in their portfolio. Even going by the above suggestion, it is a hit and miss operation. Commodities are more of a trade than buy and hold for diversifying. The average portfolio in the SP500 has indirect commodity exposure with oil and energy companies, mining stocks and companies that deal with timber and live assets. That's probably all that anyone needs.
  • Commodities Funds Ideas
    Hi @Joe,
    PTTRX is the Pimco Total Return bond fund. Your 5% commodity holding has another ticker symbol.
    What is the full name of the commodity fund?
    And yes, commodities of many types have had a tough time recently. But, commodities are many different animals.
    Is your commodity fund a raw/basic materials fund or what?
    The name and ticker symbol will help sort this.
    As to PQTIX, yes this is a managed futures fund and a whole different critter and not related to a commodity fund.
    What are your goals with your monies? Is this money taxable or non-taxable holdings?
    Regards,
    Catch
  • Commodities Funds Ideas
    I have held an allocation of 5% commodities as a diversifier for some time; unfortunately all consisting of PTTRX, which is my worst fund by far and seems to do nothing but loose money, whether commodities prices are rising or falling. Any thoughts on a better fund which will provide some commodities exposure and maybe even not continuously loose value? I noticed PQTIX mentioned in another post. While I believe this is a managed futures fund rather than pure commodities, perhaps this would be a better alternative?
    Joe
  • The Royce Funds liqudates five funds
    @MFOMembers: That still leaves 22 open-ended funds, and four CEF for a shop that ranks #77 with 31Billion in AUM.
    Regards,
    Ted
    Royce Website
    https://www.roycefunds.com/news/2015/03/rs2-rss-rsv-ptr-rgd-liquidation
  • The Royce Funds liqudates five funds
    http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/709364/000094937715000150/e34001trf-497.htm
    497 1 e34001trf-497.htm
    The Royce Fund
    Royce Select Fund II
    Royce Enterprise Select Fund
    Royce SMid-Cap Value Fund
    Royce Partners Fund
    Royce Global Dividend Value Fund
    Supplement to the Prospectus dated May 1, 2014
    The Royce Fund’s Board of Trustees recently approved a separate plan of liquidation for each Fund listed above. Each plan of liquidation will be effective on April 23, 2015. Each Fund listed above is being liquidated primarily because it has not attracted and maintained assets at a sufficient level for it to be viable. As of February 26, 2015, each Fund was no longer offering its shares for purchase and was not accepting any investments in the Fund.
    March 13, 2015
    5FUND-SUPP-CLOSE
  • GMO's glummest forecast
    Hey, no worries. A nice 50% "correction," and those projections will improve a lot!
  • No surprise---again. M* fails to update
    Mona 75cents for Bud? where?
    I went to a foreign beer tasting yesterday, nasty stuff, I almost got ask to leave by demanding a bud light for "comparison".....wonder why they wouldn't give me one?
    what you think about my characterization? Smarter, Faster, Richer than this site?
    Well...
  • No surprise---again. M* fails to update
    It cost me 50 cents a day..to get all the information I need to make buying and selling investment decisions everyday...MAYBE there are people (not really investors) out there that think 50cents is too much money to pay for that service but I Don't.....
    (plus I probably drop that much in the sand everyday)
    PEANUTS for what I need

    TB,
    Nice to hear that you will splurge the 50 cents for the information. Now add the 25 cents for the Bud Light and you are now up to 75 cents a day.
    Glad to hear you are a big spender and keeping the Florida economy afloat.
    Mona
  • BBALX, GBMFX and 3/1/15 commentary
    GBMFX looks great and M* lists it as a no-load, no minimum fund, but neither Schwab nor TDAmeritrade accept orders for it. Beyond that, one of the great granddaddies of global allocation funds is First Eagle's SGENX. Yes, it has a load but over a complete market cycle it out-performs both BBALX and GBMFX (almost 1%/year better than GBMFX and almost 2%/year better than BBALX.) I hate paying loads and do so only very rarely - but once in a while it is worth doing so. As the Blackrock fund is also loaded, the First Eagle should be considered. Warning: There have been manager changes at First Eagle in that time period.
  • GMO's glummest forecast
    This plot does not show the standard deviation. For example, if EM will grow 2.9% per year during 7 years, one will get approximately 20%, in average. But what if the average gain of 20% means (approximately) that one may either lose 50% or gain 90% ? (These estimates are a gross simplification of what may happen.) For many of us this would be a very dangerous game to play. Previously they were giving the standard deviation in their predictions, but they no longer do it now.