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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Gundlach/Total Return Bond Fund (DBLTX/DLTNX).Webcast today
    The previous webcast is available on DoubleLine's website so I assume this one will be also. During the webcast they mentioned 3-5 days, not specifically related to making it available on their website but for sending it to people who requested it by email and I assume they'll put it on their website at the same time.
  • No surprise---again. M* fails to update
    Dear Lizzie,
    Thanks very much for your post.
    One of the themes that we have observed for quite some time now is that when a fund price has not been updated by Morningstar, it has been updated by Yahoo Finance.
    I appreciate your explanation that you are dependent on the fund company to supply you with the latest price update:
    "Some fund companies are slower to provide all fund data, or data on individual funds. Generally 75% of fund companies have directly given us their updated NAVs by 7pm. By 9:15, we’ve heard from 90% of fund companies, and by midnight 99%."
    It would appear that fund companies must be providing Yahoo Finance their updated price more rapidly than they supply it to Morningstar.
    What would be the explanation for this?
    Or is Yahoo Finance simply processing and posting the information more rapidly than Morningstar is?
    Another issue is that we have many examples where on a Saturday, Morningstar is still showing the Thursday price for some funds. Yet Yahoo Finance is showing the updated Friday's closing price.
    What would be the explanation for that?
    One would think that fund companies would be supplying updated prices to multiple sources simultaneously.
    thanks very much Lizzie
    p.s. it's not only Yahoo Finance that does a much better job with price updates than Morningstar. For example, if one goes onto brokerage sites, such as Schwab, Fidelity, TD Ameritrade, etc, one can also find much more timely price updates than Morningstar is able to provide.
    What is the reason for that? How are they able to accomplish what Morningstar is having such a difficult time with?
    thank you very much
  • No surprise---again. M* fails to update
    Hi All,
    My name is Lizzie, and I work in client service at Morningstar. I wanted to provide the share an explanation from our Product Manager for Morningstar.com regarding why we occasionally see delayed pricing updates on Morningstar.com.
    On a typical day we start receiving open-end fund data at 5:15pm CST with the majority of fund NAVs in by 7pm. Some fund companies are slower to provide all fund data, or data on individual funds. Generally 75% of fund companies have directly given us their updated NAVs by 7pm. By 9:15, we’ve heard from 90% of fund companies, and by midnight 99%. If the data deviates greatly from what we’ve seen in the past, we embargo the update until a data analyst can review it. This is usually completed shortly after midnight CST. We are reviewing with our data team ways to minimized this disruption, either by expedited reviews or tighter QA flags.
    Our internal targets are to have 75% of NAVs and prices updated by 6pm CST, 85% by 7pm and 95% by 8pm. Quality of data is pursued over speed. That said, in the last year we have improved our backend systems dramatically resulting in NAVs being published to the site around two hours quicker than in the past. There will always be exceptions from fund companies that haven’t provided updated NAVs or those that we’re giving a closer review, and whenever possible we’re working to minimize those delays.
    Thanks,
    Lizzie
  • This Is An Investor’s Worst Nightmare: The 60/40 Portfolio
    FYI: What happens if rising rates lead to a stock market sell off? Many investors were likely asking this exact question after stocks and bonds both fell last week.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://theirrelevantinvestor.tumblr.com/post/113120399658/this-is-an-investors-worst-nightmare-what
  • Large-Cap Stock Mutual Funds: Why Bother?

    That article reeks of performance-chasing to me. Yes, smallcaps outperformed, but they're also more volatile and not many people would willingly ride their dramatic ups and downs.
    If you want a SWAN (sleep well at night) portfolio I don't think you'll find it by holding the majority of it in smallcaps. For me, smallcaps represent about maybe 15% of my holdings and I'm fine with that. I'm not out to hit home runs every year when it comes to much of my long-term retirement investments ... regular base hits and occasional doubles are enough.
  • How To Survive A Bear Market
    Thanks for your added note/response MJG. After some additional time to reflect here ... I'd like to add two additional but closely related questions for your consideration.
    (1) Let's say Bill who is 25 and not accustomed to saving opens an account with $50, planning on making the subsequent $50 monthly investments his fund house requires of these systematic investment plans. Three months later, having amassed $150 in investments, Bill withdraws the money and closes the account. Does Bill count as an "investor" under Dalbar's guidelines? Certainly, there are a great many like him who open accounts with the best of intentions but close them shortly after.
    (2) How does Dalbar treat members of investment clubs in their methodology? As you know, these take their pooled monies and invest in funds and other securities. Does each member, who contributed perhaps $25 a month into the investment pool, count as an individual investor? If so, it would seem a daunting task to gather data about the length of time each member participated as well as the dollar amount contributed to various funds the club owned on his behalf - as membership in these clubs is often quite fluid.
    Sorry to pester you with details - but owing to the very high esteem you appear to hold for Dalbar and the faith you profess in their methodology, I'd enjoy learning how the obstacles to arriving at precise definitive conclusions are met with .
    Thanks again.
  • Large-Cap Stock Mutual Funds: Why Bother?
    FYI: What will it take for large-cap stock mutual funds to overcome the drag of the 2000-02 bear market and their lagging ways in the 2002-07 recovery?
    Because they fared so much worse than small- and midcap funds in those periods, large-caps have lagged far behind in the past 15 years.
    How far behind? A $10,000 investment in the average large-cap fund on Dec. 31, 1999, would have grown to just $16,882 as of March 6 this year, according to Morningstar Inc. data. The same investment would have swollen to $37,912 in the average small-cap fund, $35,431 in the average midcap fund and $18,834 in the S&P 500.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://license.icopyright.net/user/viewFreeUse.act?fuid=MTkwODI4OTE=
    Enlarged Graphic:
    http://news.investors.com/photopopup.aspx?path=webLV0310.gif&docId=742700&xmpSource=&width=1000&height=1063&caption=&id=742732
  • Gundlach/Total Return Bond Fund (DBLTX/DLTNX).Webcast today
    @AndyJ Same here.I always forget which day to put the "string around my finger".
    Have come to enjoy Mr. Gundlach's presentations.Gets me laughing at times with the irony I think he excels at.
    Take a ways:
    Janet Yellen- Time spent with foreign central bankers and the White House?
    Negative yields in Euro Zone?
    Central Banks purchases of gold? Possible $1400.00 this year.
    Retest low $40's in W T I crude.Too early to buy beaten down debt in oil patch which has rallied ytd.
    Long term demographics very scary in the next 15-35 years,especially Japan,most of Europe,and China.
    Trend is your friend,especially in fx markets.$$$$$.All DoubleLine's funds,including E M's are $$ dominated.
    Waiting for an Indian stock market correction to deploy more capital there.Long term investors-Buy India,put it in a safe for 20 years-Enjoy your foresight! Very compelling demographics.
    When will the "Block Head" game end? 2019-22 shows extreme bond maturities.Interest rates at that time ??? Government debt service?
    Despite asset/product expansion,Gundloch expects to continue DoubleLine's out performance.He appreciates the concern for his well being though !
    Higher taxes coming,especially the very rich.Has 15% percent of his personal assets in muni's, especially California.Very comfy with that asset. Puerto Rico's debt will get across the goal line.Very compelling for high tax bracketeers.(he implies these tax advantages may be reduced in the future) I R A's ???.
    @Scott Skeptical of old line auto manufacturers.The urban Millennials embrace a carless future with an on demand driverless car available in 30 ?? seconds.Mentioned Uber. Tesla,Apple??
    Housing weakness? At least not very strong.
    I own DLENX.
  • Turner Titan Fund to liquidate
    http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1006783/000110465915018505/a15-6522_1497.htm
    497 1 a15-6522_1497.htm 497
    TURNER FUNDS
    TURNER TITAN FUND
    Supplement dated March 10, 2015
    to the Prospectus dated January 31, 2015
    THIS SUPPLEMENT PROVIDES NEW AND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION BEYOND THAT CONTAINED IN THE PROSPECTUS. THIS SUPPLEMENT SHOULD BE READ IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE PROSPECTUS.
    On February 27, 2015, the Board of Trustees (the “Board”) of the Turner Funds determined to close and liquidate the Turner Titan Fund (the “Fund”), effective on or about April 30, 2015. The Fund had previously been scheduled to close and liquidate on or about March 13, 2015. In connection with the pending liquidation, the Fund discontinued accepting orders for the purchase of Fund shares or exchanges into the Fund from other Turner Funds after the close of business on January 30, 2015.
    On or around the close of business on April 30, 2015, the Fund will distribute pro rata all of its assets in cash to its shareholders, and all outstanding shares will be redeemed and cancelled. Prior to that time, the proceeds from the liquidation of portfolio securities will be invested in cash equivalent securities or held in cash. During this time, the Fund may hold more cash, cash equivalents or other short-term investments than normal, which may prevent the Fund from meeting its stated investment objective.
    BECAUSE THE FUND WILL BE CLOSED AND LIQUIDATED ON OR ABOUT April 30, 2015, WE RECOMMEND THAT YOU CONSIDER SELLING OR EXCHANGING YOUR SHARES PRIOR TO THAT DATE. You may exchange shares of the Fund for any other Turner Fund open to new investors. You may sell or exchange shares on any business day by contacting us directly by mail, telephone (1-800-224-6312) or via our website (www.turnerinvestments.com). If you invest through a financial institution, you should contact the financial institution for more information on how to sell or exchange your shares. If you still hold shares of the Fund on or about April 30, 2015, we will automatically redeem your shares for cash and remit the proceeds to you (via check or wire) based on the instructions listed on your account.
    The sale, exchange or liquidation of your shares will generally be a taxable event. You should consult your personal tax advisor concerning your particular tax situation.
    Please contact the Turner Funds’ Investors Services team at 1-800-224-6312 for more information.
    PLEASE RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT FOR FUTURE REFERENCE.
    (TUR-FS-30-06)
  • Gundlach/Total Return Bond Fund (DBLTX/DLTNX).Webcast today

    Please join us for a live webcast titled "Blockhead" hosted by:
    Jeffrey Gundlach
    Mr. Gundlach will be discussing the economy, the markets and his outlook for what he believes may be the best investment strategies and sector allocations for the DoubleLine Total Return Bond Fund (DBLTX/DLTNX).
    Tuesday, March 10, 2015
    1:15 pm PT/4:15 pm ET
    Click Here to Register
    https://event.webcasts.com/viewer/event.jsp?ei=1051149
  • How To Survive A Bear Market
    I believe I see some improvement, with journalists of all sorts more and more (maybe it's their eds :) ) using median instead of mean (=average). Median has its own problems, but not like the usual ones with average or mean, as in Shaq's and my average height is 6'5".
  • How To Survive A Bear Market
    This article should be dedicated to MJG. In the article " The average investor in stock mutual funds made 3.8% a year over the past 30 years..." I am skeptical on the methodology used to determine that tidbit.
    And why some aging investor with a large nest egg should embrace a 20% and more decline in his portfolio is beyond me. My poor old Dad never recovered from the bear of 73/74 because of the timing of his retirement. Albeit, I would love a bear market about now.
    Thanks Junkster. I'm more than skeptical of these "averages" that get thrown around. Twain said "Between Kipling and myself we corner all knowledge." He didn't mean to say both were equally brilliant. So WTF is the average investor? Does that have to be U.S. currency - or does it include the stash of "foreign" currency we keep on hand for our visits to Ontario? How about the wife's gold and jewelry collection? She considers it an investment. Does that count? The widow across the street puts her retirement money 100% in insured bank accounts. Is somebody like that included in that "average investor" statistic? Are FDIC insured deposits even counted?
    If you include all the people "defaulted" into workplace retirement accounts - and a great many of them contribute very little and care even less about investing - I'd imagine you could skew those averages about as dramatically as the Twain quote does.
    Three Ways To Lie With Statistics
    http://m.wikihow.com/Lie-with-Statistics
    Illustration: "For example, imagine you survey 50 households in a neighborhood for their income. Most households make between $40,000 and $60,000 a year, but one household makes $5 million a year. When you compute the mean average, the number will be significantly higher than the “real” average income in that area, because the $5 million number is so much bigger than the others.
    "In a similar way, if you had data showing that 9 people each had $1,000 in their bank accounts, but a tenth person only has $1, the median average would work out to $900.10 – almost 10% less than the most common amount."
    I really think step #1 in any article like this should be (meaning "ought to be and not necessarily will be") to DEFINE THE TERMS.
  • John Waggoner: Five Funds For Retirement
    FYI: You look at things differently when you're about to retire. You're far less likely to buy a trampoline, for example. And you're probably far more risk-adverse in your investments, too.
    regards,
    Ted
    http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2015/03/09/five-funds-for-retirement/24407777/
  • How To Survive A Bear Market
    It does depend on timing. All this buy and hold advice that constantly floods our media really does not apply to retirees or those close to retiring. The risk tolerance changes for some and with that so does their asset allocation.
    It is a fine balance between capital preservation and having enough growth so your portfolio will last as long as you need.
    Good point @ Junkster.

    True that!
    I really don't see how most of those under 50 or 55 will be able to retire with any sense of security. Only welfare will save them.
    The vast majority of them don't have savings, pensions, large 401k savings and SS dates are pushed out further. Then they get fired/buy outs as they approach 60.
    The vast majority of folks do not appear to be that concerned with retirement. And as you've eluded, for some it's already too late. And unfortunately, Welfare nor Social Security can save them. Our American culture is in serious need of a reality check.
  • How To Survive A Bear Market

    "I wonder what the people in Japan would say - is that bear over yet?"
    Even if it is, Nikkei 38957 is a long ways off. Most investors will never see it again.
  • How To Survive A Bear Market
    It does depend on timing. All this buy and hold advice that constantly floods our media really does not apply to retirees or those close to retiring. The risk tolerance changes for some and with that so does their asset allocation.
    It is a fine balance between capital preservation and having enough growth so your portfolio will last as long as you need.
    Good point @ Junkster.
    True that!
    I really don't see how most of those under 50 or 55 will be able to retire with any sense of security. Only welfare will save them.
    The vast majority of them don't have savings, pensions, large 401k savings and SS dates are pushed out further. Then they get fired/buy outs as they approach 60.
  • Fears About 'Target' Funds
    Terrible name. When these (target date) funds were originally conceived, interest rates were still in the near double-diget range - so the concept of increasing bond allocations over time made some sense according to the than conventional wisdom. Unfortunately, that may no longer be the case with the historically low rates of recent years. The "news" is nothing new, Experts have been sounding the alarm about this for some time.
    I don't understand why any savy investor would choose these over, say, a good conservative allocation fund, and perhaps allocate his own desired amount into cash or bonds. However, as a default option for those who either don't know very much about money or don't care, I guess they still make sense. They're far better than not saving at all or letting the money collect moss in a 0 interest account.
    I use Price's TRRIX (Retirement Balanced) as part of my overall allocation. It's part of their retirement fund lineup. But, unlike the others, it doesn't increase its allocation to fixed income over time. Essentially, it remains around 50-60% in fixed income indefinitely. Has low fees and gives you a nice slice of many of their other funds.