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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • The Mental Mistakes We Make With Retirement Spending
    I was just debating fixing up the old reliable 13-year old GMC pickup for somewhere between $3,000 and $5,000 or buying a brand new one. Took a look. Sticker prices of $40,000 - $80,000 convinced me to fix up the old one. (What inflation?)
    BTW - When I was a kid in the 50s, pickup trucks were what some of the poorer folks drove. Cost less than full sized cars. How that changed!
  • The Risk for High-Tax States: The Wealthy Could Flee
    We should take note of Fitzgerald's distinction between the very rich and everyone else, including the "merely" affluent. (Note that he really was talking about wealth, but in the context of taxes, one is usually talking about income.)
    People seem to fixate on round numbers. In the case of income, that's $1M/year. It's used as a benchmark in this article ("Wyoming also has the highest average income among those making over $1 million annually"). @Maurice suggested that if the Fair Share Amendment became law in Massachusetts (which would add 4% to the tax on income above $1M), "a lot more smart people [would be] leaving the state."
    So let's work with that $1M figure. FWIW a $1M income puts you well into the 1% crowd. You need "only" $300K (individual) or $430K (household) to break into the top 1%. (2016 figures found here.)
    The article suggests that these "upper crust generally have more options and tend to move where they’re taxed less harshly." That may be true for the affluent, but not for this crowd.
    America's super-rich move around the country far less than everyone else
    http://www.businessinsider.com/americas-super-rich-are-less-mobile-than-lower-income-workers-2016-6
    "Persistent millionaires"—those who earn $1 million or more year after year—have the lowest overall migration rates (1.9 percent). ... When all is said and done, the super-rich tend to migrate less then the rest of us. The reason for this is simple—most people depend on the places they live for their incomes, since their businesses are based there.
  • American Beacon Sound Point Floating Rate Income Fund
    What are your thoughts on this one? I'm always skeptical of anything to good to be true...but this fund has an exceptionally narrow 52-week trading range of 10.29 to 10.36, yields 4.63%, a long and successful run before the Sound Point Fund was picked up by American Beacon, and is up 1.83% YTD. Floaters are usually fairly volatile but this fund is run to be low vol, and has lived up to that promise. With rising rate expectations, this would appear to be a holy grail, but alas there are few such beasts. Where does the danger lurk...or should we be buying with both fists.
    PS. Pimco Income has been my go to for years and is still my mainstay in the bond space, but I just can't believe that its significant out performance won't mean revert at some point and so I will not increase my already full position.
  • The Mental Mistakes We Make With Retirement Spending
    @Junkster: Glad you enjoyed the article. I must admit I didn't know what a Xterras was, had to look it up. For those of you ,like myself, who are car challenged, here is a little info on the Xterras
    Regards,
    Ted
    The Nissan Xterra is a truck that was manufactured and marketed by Nissan Motors across two generations, sharing its platform with the Nissan Frontier pickup. Both generations of the Xterra featured a two-box design with a raised rear roofline to enable stadium seating—as well as a bump on the rearmost door expressing
    In 2015 Nissan Xterra Discontinued in U.S. ... The Xterra, which competes against the Jeep Wrangler, is being discontinued for regulatory reasons. Nissan would have had to invest in upgraded safety and emissions equipment for what is a fairly limited audience.
    https://www.google.com/search?q=Xterras+image&tbm=isch&source=iu&ictx=1&fir=HSA_PIqL7ohHHM%3A%2C6XUI7TOndHinRM%2C_&usg=__Mf3ENnwEfZ-Hs4fR1uRycFVBOQU=&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwi6oMevkM7aAhWN94MKHZ9qBgwQ9QEILTAB#imgrc=HSA_PIqL7ohHHM:
  • The Mental Mistakes We Make With Retirement Spending
    One of the best articles I have read. Thanks @Ted. One I will actually be printing out. So many bullet points that are applicable to my situation. I have some work to do still in the spending department but finally have been begun to loosen the purse strings. Recently purchased two low mileage Xterras to go along with my older one. They quit making them in 2015. I hope to be driving them until the day I pass. I love Xterras!
    One point mentioned in the article and something I have harped on before is we that we all tend to overestimate our longevity. It’s a natural tendency so I can understand. When younger we all had friends who seemed to go by the motto to live each day as if it is your last. Strangely enough, at least among my friends, those seemed to be the ones who ( A) never made it to old age due to poor health habits or (B) now live hand to mouth in retirement from overspending in their youth. . My point is, it’s not so much when we are young that we should live as if each day is our last, but more so when we are old - and especially those of us who have been blessed in old age with money and good health. Health in old age can change in the blink of an eye so you better live each day to the fullest enjoying whatever your passions may be.
  • Artificial Intelligence (AI) Funds
    Howdy @willmatt72
    This is just my opinion here, of course. As MJG has stated many times over the years, don't take investment suggestions from internet strangers.
    My observations of the A.I. area, from a tech. background. As noted by others, one doesn't need a tech. background to observe what is taking place all of the time in the world of technology. I suspect the majority of the public, let alone many investors; don't really pay attention to what is taking place. No second thoughts about Alexa and related, nor to the fact of face or thumb print recognition for personal devices they use everyday or their Robo floor sweeper, eh?
    Many here have A.I., machine learning and robotic manufacturing investments and chip companies through some broad-based equity holdings and/or technology fund holdings; which includes medical/biotech.
    The big names one recognizes; Alphabet, Apple, Amazon, Google, IBM, and list goes on...are obviously involved in A.I. type functions. Amazon may seem an " e-commerce" only company to most.....but, not, yes?
    Amazon and other established companies continue and IMHO will continue (if it fits their business model) to acquire publicly traded companies and start ups one has never heard the name of, involved with all things tech.
    Thoughts about some of this.
    1. From the vast personal wealth that exists from previous involvement in technology, many of the small A.I. related companies will not become public, as they are able to be fully funded by private monies,but may be purchased by established companies, as in companies with BOTZ and related etf's.
    2. Two quick examples. Want to be a para-legal? Not so sure this is a good choice today. A company is working on case procedures, background work for a form of legal proceeding, legal contracts. The human search to discover needed documents required 51-156 minutes (best and worst human discovery times), while an A.I. powered server loaded with proper data required 26 seconds. NOTE: I'm writing this example with the belief the information is correct, reference, LAWGEEX.
    2a. Benevolent. A private British company. Removed my write and placed this short video link next:
    https://www.cnbc.com/video/2018/04/19/investors-beginning-to-see-how-important-ai-can-be-for-the-uk-economy-pro.html
    This easy view link below of holdings (only the top 10 of 29, unless you have a Fidelity account) for the top 10, which is 70% of this etf, BOTZ . At least for this etf, one is not investing in a bunch of start up companies. These are established companies to a global aspect, many of which, the individual investor does not have ready access to invest easily.
    https://screener.fidelity.com/ftgw/etf/goto/snapshot/portfolioComposition.jhtml?symbols=BOTZ
    Another A.I. example:
    https://sciencetrends.com/just-4-hours-googles-ai-mastered-chess-knowledge-history/
    @willmatt72 I started this write a few days ago, but schedules got in the way of posting.
    I have read your recent follow-up and obviously you continue to search for validation of investment potential in this more narrow tech. sector. I personally find this area valid for investment. Yes, there will be burps here and there; not unlike broad equity and equity sector investing. Whether narrow sector investing is suitable for all portfolios obviously depends upon the individual, their overall portfolio, their temperament and study of a given area.
    Our house tends more towards chunk investing versus dollar cost averaging; but this sector is valid (IMHO) to whatever method is available or of a comfort level for an individual. Heck, lots of folks here do sector investing.....Europe, Asia, growth, value, healthcare, tech., EM bonds, IG bonds, etc. Generally speaking, we're all sector investors attempting to establish a "balance".
    Our other tech.: FTEC
    https://screener.fidelity.com/ftgw/etf/goto/snapshot/portfolioComposition.jhtml?symbols=FTEC
    Additional: ROBO composition
    https://screener.fidelity.com/ftgw/etf/goto/snapshot/portfolioComposition.jhtml?symbols=ROBO
    Chart overview, 1 year, selected tech.
    http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?BOTZ,ROBO,XLK,IXN,JAGTX,FSPTX&p=5&O=011000
    Disclosure: 6% of our equity exposure is BOTZ.
    I'm going to dig through a few saved videos and post to your thread later. Current Westworld is good example. :) I recall watching the original movie with Yul Brenner.
    Didn't proof read this......hopefully, not too messy.
    Regards,
    Catch
  • The Mental Mistakes We Make With Retirement Spending
    FYI: The same mind-set and habits that work so well when people are building their nest egg can damage their quality of life—and their investments—in retirement.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.cetusnews.com/news/The-Mental-Mistakes-We-Make-With-Retirement-Spending.S1nOzov2f.html
  • IOFIX on Friday. Very lousey day, but...
    @VintgeFreak I am saying look at page 24 and understand that this is the same kind of subprime mortgage debt that caused the crash and Region Morgan's meltdown:
    alphacentricfunds.com/funds/IncomeOpp/presentation.pdf
    However, much has changed in the subprime market since 2008 and funds like this one, Semper and the Pimco closed-end fund have basically made a fortune off picking through the rubble, profiting off the immense suffering subprime lending caused to the body politic. Capitalism at its best. What has happened are two things--subprime loans are gradually disappearing as what remaining debt issued pre-crisis matures and new issues don't take its place and a lot of the worst mortgage borrowers have already defaulted in many managers who invest in this stuff's view. So they say its safer than it was in 2007. But much of the juice in the sector has already been wrung out of it. The time to buy was in 2009 and 2010. Now there is still illiquidity in the sector, significant credit risk and modest yields for that risk. But people are willing to take that risk because they're desperate for yield. Valuation and pricing are still far from perfect because of liquidity issues. Most of these securities are rated "level 2" during good times like now and some even "level 3." Google the meaning of "level 2 securities," but basically while there is a market for these securities it is nowhere as near as robust as Treasuries or investment grade corporate debt. And in a severe selloff--and in particular a credit driven selloff--pricing again will likely become an issue again.
  • IOFIX on Friday. Very lousey day, but...
    okay... are we saying IOFIX is investing in such "1-share stocks"?
  • Perhaps you'll have a weekly winner somewhere in the rubble.
    I'm 39% bonds. Pretty stinky. Globally, my stuff smells bad tonight. Winners, ytd: PRWCX, PRIDX, PRDSX, VSCIX. .... Worst, ytd: SFGIX, PREMX, MAPOX. Nothing drastically falling apart. I'd just rather see black than red.
    SGGIX -2.06% YD ..... PREMX -1.29% YD ..... MAPOX -2.87% YD
    That’s your worst? Pretty trifling so far. You’re playing in the big leagues. - @Crash :)
    I dunno about bonds. But if you thought bonds were a good investment a year ago, they’re an even better one now that they’re earning a higher rate of return.
  • Barry Ritholtz: Billionaire Bezos And The Warehouse Workers
    @hank Thanks for the digging. If Amazon has over a half million employees (Ritholtz cited CNN here), and only 4% (20,000) of them are in the warehouses, what are the other 96% doing? How many are at Whole Foods or running Amazon's servers, or ...?
    Hard to make all the numbers fit together. In any case, it looks like Amazon's pay scale is not out of whack. One would have to look at things like geographic distribution to go beyond sweeping generalizations. I don't think either of us is going to do that.
  • Barry Ritholtz: Billionaire Bezos And The Warehouse Workers
    “The average U.S. warehouse worker, at Amazon or anywhere else, earns a third more than a retail worker. The median hourly wage of a warehouse worker is $13.50, or about 30% more than the average U.S. retail worker's pay of $10.09, according to the Department of Labor ... Amazon wouldn't say how much it pays its workers. But according to data gathered by career website Glassdoor.com, Amazon pays its 20,000 warehouse workers an average hourly wage of about $12, which is below the national average.
    http://money.cnn.com/2013/07/30/news/companies/amazon-warehouse-workers/index.html
    My humble math skills: Multiply $12 X 40 (hours a week) X 50 (weeks per year worked) =
    $24,000 per year earned. Ouch - That’s a trashy amount to live on. Some mitigating factors might be if they receive health insurance, stock in the company, performance incentives or any type of 401K match. Any one of those would result in a higher real salary.
    One thing to remember is that Amazon is still a relatively young rapidly expanding company. As such it would be expected to have a younger less experienced workforce which might translate into a lower medium salary. Another issue is education. Low skill jobs don’t pay well. Globalization? I think so. But also speaks to the importance of families promoting their kids’ learning, supporting schools and stressing the importance of post-secondary education, whether college, trade school or other.
    PS - My first post-college job paid $5,200 per year. No insurance. The second year I landed a “high paying” position paying a bit over $7,000 yearly and having health insurance. (And that’s right when Nixon imposed the wage/price freeze). :)
  • Barry Ritholtz: Billionaire Bezos And The Warehouse Workers
    "The median salary ... is $28,446, excluding [one person]."
    Gosh, do you think that including one more figure would alter the median salary?
    He goes on to compare Amazon's median salary with Apple's average salary. The Apple figure he's citing really is its median pay, but you wouldn't know that from his text.
    He acknowledge that Apple includes a lot of retail workers, but in a way that suggests this is little different from selling pots and pans at Wallmart. In fact, paysa.com (his source) classifies Apple Associate Sales Specialists as selling electronics, not the largely generic type of stuff at Amazon. Even in the electronics arena Apple is atypical, coming in at second highest pay for associate sales specialist. (The highest paying is Covidien, now part of Medtronics, selling highly specialized medical equipment.)
    He thinks that comparing a CEO's net worth to that of the average employee is more informative than comparing the CEO's compensation package to that of the median employee. Somehow he comes up with a ration of 100B:1.
    He writes: "Here's how I came up with that ratio", then goes on to say that the median net worth of the workers is somewhere between negative and slightly positive. So already you know that whatever figure he comes up with is highly unstable. (Change the workers' net worth from $1 to $10 and you change the ratio by an order of magnitude.) But he never tells you how he picked some number between "negative and slightly more than zero."
    Really! There may be some message, but with all the junk numbers, it's hard to discern what it is.
  • Should A Lifetime Annuity Fuel Your Retirement?
    I’ve looked at annuities in the past and the pay-out looked so bleak compared to what one can reasonably expect to make in the markets than I ran away. That was at substantially lower Fed/10-year rates than today. Does anyone know if annuities now offer better payouts than a couple years ago or - better yet - whether their attractiveness will continue to improve now that interest rates are finally rising?
  • Barry Ritholtz's Masters In Business: Guest: Joel Greenblatt, CIO, Gotham Asset Management
    The thrill of gathering assets at hedge fund expense ratios. Gotham averages 2.5% er. Half charge more than 3%. But Gotham's been winning since launch. 20 of 21 funds have handsomely beaten their peers. This year, however, they have generally followed the market down, drawdowns at end of March from -3 to -8%, averaging -5%. c
  • "Beam" Legitimate or too good to be true" scam?
    Here's a review by someone who got a response to some of his questions from Beam, though they were mostly "nonanswers". He also got a live account and describes how it works. To quote from his page: "Spoiler alert: it’s not good."
    https://www.getrichquickish.net/2017/07/beam-high-interest-rate-bank-account.html
    I've been around Silicon Valley and startups enough to recognize some patterns. Not awful, just stuff you get used to.
    The idea that we can do better than anyone else because ... well, just because. Think of all the silly companies built during the dot com boom.
    It will be better because we'll apply TECHNOLOGY. Look at Oscar Insurance - a startup Obamacare company, a darling of VCs (unlike most startups). This excerpt about it from Politico could easily apply to Beam:
    Health insurance is a relatively staid business. ... Oscar wasn’t revolutionizing the model and the cliche about the “Uber of health care” ignored the fact that health insurance is one of the most- regulated markets in the country while Uber capitalized on regulatory loopholes.
    Oscar’s bet, indeed its raison d'etre, is that its superior technology will keep its patients healthier or provide them with less expensive medical interventions when they do become ill.
    It's very common not to say much about business models, especially when there aren't high barriers to entry. From a customer perspective it doesn't matter much unless it's illegal, or you would be hurt if the company went out of business. It's different for investors, and startups do share their business plans under NDAs to potential investors.
    Here's all I can find on their backing and staff:
    https://angel.co/meetbeam
    Statups try to generate buzz. They'll puff up whatever connections they have. So on the home page you see "TRUSTED BY OUR ADVOCATES". Not advocates so much as just publications where their launch was reported (like the Forbes article).
    What you don't see here is a list of partners or investors. (Even those can be greatly exaggerated, where partnership could mean just a normal transactional relationship.)
    A hype campaign, an effort to build a customer base quickly. Pushing customers to network with their friends. Attracting people by making it seem exclusive. Even Google did that with gmail:
    The aura of exclusivity and experimentation stuck to mail long after it did grow huge. Google kept increasing the number of invites each user could issue, but it didn’t open up the service to all comers until Valentine’s Day, 2007. And Gmail wore its Beta label like a badge of honor until July of 2009.
    http://time.com/43263/gmail-10th-anniversary/
    To reiterate: nothing out of the ordinary with any of this. It could succeed, though I have my doubts. I don't see any rush to move a modest amount of money in right now, just to get a quarter percent more interest on it. If I wait a year (at an after tax opportunity cost of about $30 on $15,000), I'll survive.
  • IOFIX on Friday. Very lousey day, but...
    R
    But how is it able to do that? Very little info on what its invested in on M*.
    Incidently their "hedged market opportunity" fund is down 12% ytd. So there.
    And their tactical allocation "asset rotation" fund is also sucking wind against category.
    I also worry because they have fund exclusively devoted to "Robotics & Automation". I immediately think of "Pictet Global Water" fund when I see that, a fund before its time.
    I guess IOFAX is unique...maybe time to dabble at little
    Please don’t. We have been talking about this fund for a year now here and there and now you suddenly want to dabble???