> But a lot can go wrong especially when investors think they are in a “sure thing”.
In a nutshell, that's what concerns me about bonds other than vanilla bonds (investment grade corporate, treasuries). They are fine, often for long periods of time (increasing the belief that they're "sure things"), until they're not. Then declines can come fast and steep. These are not your father's bond funds.
@Junkster, thanks for the link. A lot to unpack.
Speaking of your father's bond funds, it's worth taking a look at Vanguard bond funds to better understand what Level 2 means.
Virtually every bond whether it is a AAA rated corporate or a junk rated bank loan is level 2 or below. That's because unlike stocks, unique bonds usually don't trade that frequently. So instead of pricing from actual market trades, estimates may done by "comps" as in real estate. That's level 2.
Here's the latest Vanguard bond index fund semiannual report. Excluding cash equivalents and futures contracts, the breakdown of the Vanguard funds by level are:
Short Term Treasury (p 22) - US Government Obligations: 100% level 2
Intermediate Term Treasury (p 36) - US Government Obligations: 100% level 2
Long Term Treasury (p 51) - US Government Obligations: 100% level 2
Short Term Corporate (p 67) -
US Government Obligations: 100% level 2
Corporate Bonds: 99.9% level 2, 0.1% level 3
Taxable Munis: 100% level 2

Intermediate Term Corporate (p. 83) -
US Government Obligations: 100% level 2
Corporate Bonds: 99.9% level 2, 0.1% level 3

Long Term Corporate (p 100) -
Corporate Bonds: 99.97% level 2, 0.03% level 3
Taxable Munis: 100% level 2
Mortgage Backed Securities (p 116) -
US Government and Agency Obligations: 100% level 2

To complicate matters, there is now ROBT, a competitor to ROBO and BOTZ. A cynic might ask if AI is involved in the creation of ETFs; they seem to materialize when a human starts thinking.
http://www.morningstar.com/news/benzinga/BenzBZW_11247696/domo-arigato-mr-roboto-first-trust-launches-ai-robotics-etf.html

https://www.guggenheimpartners.com/perspectives/sector-views/q2-2018-high-yield-and-bank-loan-outlook
I have tried to stay out of this one. We have discussed ad nauseum this sector on the Morningstar forums. Everyone and their mother is camped out in this category and for good reasons - rising short term/3 month Libor rates. It has been one of the few beacons in Bondland in 2018. But a lot can go wrong especially when investors think they are in a “sure thing”.
For example a serious rout in stocks much more than what we saw this past February would also lead to a rout in junk corporates. That would bleed over to floating rates as after all, they are junk credits. Check out August 2015 through early February for a preview. I doubt in my lifetime there will be another credit crisis but in that crisis floating rates performed even worse than junk corporates with somevfubdscdown over 30%. Another threat would be the Fed pausing on rate hikes if stocks have a major decline and/or there is some unexpected decline in the growth of the economy.
The above link is a report from a well respected firm for those into fundamentals. Haven’t read the entire report but the default rate for floating rate is already rising albeit below historical norms. It is actually higher than the high yield default rate. Covenant lite issuance is at record highs, not good whenever this long running post credit crisis cycle turns, Still, my largest % holding is in this category with EIFAX which I have mentioned here over the past many months. But my eyes are wide open. The time to have been a player here was 2016 when many floating rate funds had double digit returns and beat the S&P. You can check the archives for my activity there then.
I always wonder why so many suddenly see the light years after the fact. Entry now while maybe not the worse bond investment out there is certainly more in the late innings than the early. You better hope for continued economic vigor and in turn the Fed continuing aggressive.

Agree that is too narrowly focus since many tech companies are developing their own AI chipsets.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/21/alibaba-joins-google-others-in-making-custom-ai-chips.html

Primitive forms of AI (part of marketing) are already used to track your shopping habit including Amazon and other retailers. They track your IP address, the items you look at and the amount of time you spend on each item. They will bring up those items later several days later as you surf the web.
If you want to protect your IP address, you can pay a VPN service (via monthly subscription).

@Wxman123
Read pages 28-30 of the semiannual report:
prospectus-express.newriver.com/summary.asp?doctype=semi&clientid=ambeacpdfll&fundid=024525313
Floating rate loans are similar in their pricing to the subprime debt for the IOFAX fund discussed in another thread. They are mainly Level 2 securities so pricing can be tricky and involves what is known as a fair value system based on other inputs such as how other similar securities might be trading that day. During periods of stress, these kinds of securities can become much more difficult to price.

I was just debating fixing up the old reliable 13-year old GMC pickup for somewhere between $3,000 and $5,000 or buying a brand new one. Took a look. Sticker prices of $40,000 - $80,000 convinced me to fix up the old one. (What inflation?)
BTW - When I was a kid in the 50s, pickup trucks were what some of the poorer folks drove. Cost less than full sized cars. How that changed!

We should take note of Fitzgerald's distinction between the very rich and everyone else, including the "merely" affluent. (Note that he really was talking about wealth, but in the context of taxes, one is usually talking about income.)
People seem to fixate on round numbers. In the case of income, that's $1M/year. It's used as a benchmark in this article ("Wyoming also has the highest average income among those making over $1 million annually"). @Maurice suggested that if the Fair Share Amendment became law in Massachusetts (which would add 4% to the tax on income above $1M), "a lot more smart people [would be] leaving the state."
So let's work with that $1M figure. FWIW a $1M income puts you well into the 1% crowd. You need "only" $300K (individual) or $430K (household) to break into the top 1%. (2016 figures found here.)
The article suggests that these "upper crust generally have more options and tend to move where they’re taxed less harshly." That may be true for the affluent, but not for this crowd.
America's super-rich move around the country far less than everyone else
http://www.businessinsider.com/americas-super-rich-are-less-mobile-than-lower-income-workers-2016-6

"Persistent millionaires"—those who earn $1 million or more year after year—have the lowest overall migration rates (1.9 percent). ... When all is said and done, the super-rich tend to migrate less then the rest of us. The reason for this is simple—most people depend on the places they live for their incomes, since their businesses are based there.

What are your thoughts on this one? I'm always skeptical of anything to good to be true...but this fund has an exceptionally narrow 52-week trading range of 10.29 to 10.36, yields 4.63%, a long and successful run before the Sound Point Fund was picked up by American Beacon, and is up 1.83% YTD. Floaters are usually fairly volatile but this fund is run to be low vol, and has lived up to that promise. With rising rate expectations, this would appear to be a holy grail, but alas there are few such beasts. Where does the danger lurk...or should we be buying with both fists.
PS. Pimco Income has been my go to for years and is still my mainstay in the bond space, but I just can't believe that its significant out performance won't mean revert at some point and so I will not increase my already full position.

@Junkster: Glad you enjoyed the article. I must admit I didn't know what a Xterras was, had to look it up. For those of you ,like myself, who are car challenged, here is a little info on the Xterras
Regards,
Ted
The Nissan Xterra is a truck that was manufactured and marketed by Nissan Motors across two generations, sharing its platform with the Nissan Frontier pickup. Both generations of the Xterra featured a two-box design with a raised rear roofline to enable stadium seating—as well as a bump on the rearmost door expressing
In 2015 Nissan Xterra Discontinued in U.S. ... The Xterra, which competes against the Jeep Wrangler, is being discontinued for regulatory reasons. Nissan would have had to invest in upgraded safety and emissions equipment for what is a fairly limited audience.
https://www.google.com/search?q=Xterras+image&tbm=isch&source=iu&ictx=1&fir=HSA_PIqL7ohHHM%3A%2C6XUI7TOndHinRM%2C_&usg=__Mf3ENnwEfZ-Hs4fR1uRycFVBOQU=&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwi6oMevkM7aAhWN94MKHZ9qBgwQ9QEILTAB#imgrc=HSA_PIqL7ohHHM:

One of the best articles I have read. Thanks @Ted. One I will actually be printing out. So many bullet points that are applicable to my situation. I have some work to do still in the spending department but finally have been begun to loosen the purse strings. Recently purchased two low mileage Xterras to go along with my older one. They quit making them in 2015. I hope to be driving them until the day I pass. I love Xterras!
One point mentioned in the article and something I have harped on before is we that we all tend to overestimate our longevity. It’s a natural tendency so I can understand. When younger we all had friends who seemed to go by the motto to live each day as if it is your last. Strangely enough, at least among my friends, those seemed to be the ones who ( A) never made it to old age due to poor health habits or (B) now live hand to mouth in retirement from overspending in their youth. . My point is, it’s not so much when we are young that we should live as if each day is our last, but more so when we are old - and especially those of us who have been blessed in old age with money and good health. Health in old age can change in the blink of an eye so you better live each day to the fullest enjoying whatever your passions may be.

@MFO Members: Some graphic details on ETF purchases.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-03/the-tokyo-whale-steps-up-with-record-purchases-of-japan-s-stocks

Howdy @willmatt72
This is just my opinion here, of course. As MJG has stated many times over the years, don't take investment suggestions from internet strangers.
My observations of the A.I. area, from a tech. background. As noted by others, one doesn't need a tech. background to observe what is taking place all of the time in the world of technology. I suspect the majority of the public, let alone many investors; don't really pay attention to what is taking place. No second thoughts about Alexa and related, nor to the fact of face or thumb print recognition for personal devices they use everyday or their Robo floor sweeper, eh?
Many here have A.I., machine learning and robotic manufacturing investments and chip companies through some broad-based equity holdings and/or technology fund holdings; which includes medical/biotech.
The big names one recognizes; Alphabet, Apple, Amazon, Google, IBM, and list goes on...are obviously involved in A.I. type functions. Amazon may seem an " e-commerce" only company to most.....but, not, yes?
Amazon and other established companies continue and IMHO will continue (if it fits their business model) to acquire publicly traded companies and start ups one has never heard the name of, involved with all things tech.
Thoughts about some of this.
1. From the vast personal wealth that exists from previous involvement in technology, many of the small A.I. related companies will not become public, as they are able to be fully funded by private monies,but may be purchased by established companies, as in companies with BOTZ and related etf's.
2. Two quick examples. Want to be a para-legal? Not so sure this is a good choice today. A company is working on case procedures, background work for a form of legal proceeding, legal contracts. The human search to discover needed documents required 51-156 minutes (best and worst human discovery times), while an A.I. powered server loaded with proper data required 26 seconds. NOTE: I'm writing this example with the belief the information is correct, reference, LAWGEEX.
2a. Benevolent. A private British company. Removed my write and placed this short video link next:
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2018/04/19/investors-beginning-to-see-how-important-ai-can-be-for-the-uk-economy-pro.html
This easy view link below of holdings (only the top 10 of 29, unless you have a Fidelity account) for the top 10, which is 70% of this etf, BOTZ . At least for this etf, one is not investing in a bunch of start up companies. These are established companies to a global aspect, many of which, the individual investor does not have ready access to invest easily.
https://screener.fidelity.com/ftgw/etf/goto/snapshot/portfolioComposition.jhtml?symbols=BOTZ
Another A.I. example:
https://sciencetrends.com/just-4-hours-googles-ai-mastered-chess-knowledge-history/
@willmatt72 I started this write a few days ago, but schedules got in the way of posting.
I have read your recent follow-up and obviously you continue to search for validation of investment potential in this more narrow tech. sector. I personally find this area valid for investment. Yes, there will be burps here and there; not unlike broad equity and equity sector investing. Whether narrow sector investing is suitable for all portfolios obviously depends upon the individual, their overall portfolio, their temperament and study of a given area.
Our house tends more towards chunk investing versus dollar cost averaging; but this sector is valid (IMHO) to whatever method is available or of a comfort level for an individual. Heck, lots of folks here do sector investing.....Europe, Asia, growth, value, healthcare, tech., EM bonds, IG bonds, etc. Generally speaking, we're all sector investors attempting to establish a "balance".
Our other tech.: FTEC
https://screener.fidelity.com/ftgw/etf/goto/snapshot/portfolioComposition.jhtml?symbols=FTEC
Additional: ROBO composition
https://screener.fidelity.com/ftgw/etf/goto/snapshot/portfolioComposition.jhtml?symbols=ROBO
Chart overview, 1 year, selected tech.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?BOTZ,ROBO,XLK,IXN,JAGTX,FSPTX&p=5&O=011000
Disclosure: 6% of our equity exposure is BOTZ.
I'm going to dig through a few saved videos and post to your thread later. Current Westworld is good example. :) I recall watching the original movie with Yul Brenner.
Didn't proof read this......hopefully, not too messy.
Regards,
Catch

FYI: The same mind-set and habits that work so well when people are building their nest egg can damage their quality of life—and their investments—in retirement.
Regards,
Ted
http://www.cetusnews.com/news/The-Mental-Mistakes-We-Make-With-Retirement-Spending.S1nOzov2f.html

@VintgeFreak I am saying look at page 24 and understand that this is the same kind of subprime mortgage debt that caused the crash and Region Morgan's meltdown:
alphacentricfunds.com/funds/IncomeOpp/presentation.pdf
However, much has changed in the subprime market since 2008 and funds like this one, Semper and the Pimco closed-end fund have basically made a fortune off picking through the rubble, profiting off the immense suffering subprime lending caused to the body politic. Capitalism at its best. What has happened are two things--subprime loans are gradually disappearing as what remaining debt issued pre-crisis matures and new issues don't take its place and a lot of the worst mortgage borrowers have already defaulted in many managers who invest in this stuff's view. So they say its safer than it was in 2007. But much of the juice in the sector has already been wrung out of it. The time to buy was in 2009 and 2010. Now there is still illiquidity in the sector, significant credit risk and modest yields for that risk. But people are willing to take that risk because they're desperate for yield. Valuation and pricing are still far from perfect because of liquidity issues. Most of these securities are rated "level 2" during good times like now and some even "level 3." Google the meaning of "level 2 securities," but basically while there is a market for these securities it is nowhere as near as robust as Treasuries or investment grade corporate debt. And in a severe selloff--and in particular a credit driven selloff--pricing again will likely become an issue again.

okay... are we saying IOFIX is investing in such "1-share stocks"?

I'm 39% bonds. Pretty stinky. Globally, my stuff smells bad tonight. Winners, ytd: PRWCX, PRIDX, PRDSX, VSCIX. .... Worst, ytd: SFGIX, PREMX, MAPOX. Nothing drastically falling apart. I'd just rather see black than red.

SGGIX -2.06% YD ..... PREMX -1.29% YD ..... MAPOX -2.87% YD
That’s your worst? Pretty trifling so far. You’re playing in the big leagues. - @Crash :)
I dunno about bonds. But if you thought bonds were a good investment a year ago, they’re an even better one now that they’re earning a higher rate of return.

@Flack, a few good reads on "How to Manage Sequence Risk":
4-approaches-managing-sequence-returns-risk-retirement/
And,
Part 1:
theretirementcafe.com/2013/09/clarifying-sequence-of-returns-risk.html
Part 2:
theretirementcafe.com/2013/09/clarifying-sequence-of-returns-risk_20.html

@hank Thanks for the digging. If Amazon has over a half million employees (Ritholtz cited CNN here), and only 4% (20,000) of them are in the warehouses, what are the other 96% doing? How many are at Whole Foods or running Amazon's servers, or ...?
Hard to make all the numbers fit together. In any case, it looks like Amazon's pay scale is not out of whack. One would have to look at things like geographic distribution to go beyond sweeping generalizations. I don't think either of us is going to do that.

“The average U.S. warehouse worker, at Amazon or anywhere else, earns a third more than a retail worker. The median hourly wage of a warehouse worker is $13.50, or about 30% more than the average U.S. retail worker's pay of $10.09, according to the Department of Labor ... Amazon wouldn't say how much it pays its workers. But according to data gathered by career website Glassdoor.com, Amazon pays its 20,000 warehouse workers an average hourly wage of about $12, which is below the national average.
http://money.cnn.com/2013/07/30/news/companies/amazon-warehouse-workers/index.html
My humble math skills: Multiply $12 X 40 (hours a week) X 50 (weeks per year worked) =
$24,000 per year earned. Ouch - That’s a trashy amount to live on. Some mitigating factors might be if they receive health insurance, stock in the company, performance incentives or any type of 401K match. Any one of those would result in a higher real salary.
One thing to remember is that Amazon is still a relatively young rapidly expanding company. As such it would be expected to have a younger less experienced workforce which might translate into a lower medium salary. Another issue is education. Low skill jobs don’t pay well. Globalization? I think so. But also speaks to the importance of families promoting their kids’ learning, supporting schools and stressing the importance of post-secondary education, whether college, trade school or other.
PS - My first post-college job paid $5,200 per year. No insurance. The second year I landed a “high paying” position paying a bit over $7,000 yearly and having health insurance. (And that’s right when Nixon imposed the wage/price freeze). :)

A cautionary tale: https://mobile.nytimes.com/2007/12/30/business/30loan.html