@Ted, thanks. I read Mr. Ritholtz's site related notes (various authors), as time allows.
Of note in this write is (I selected particular portions):
"The Transportation sector benefits from lower energy prices in a different way. The obvious benefit is lower fuel costs. Air and rail travel, truck transport, and other means of US transportation also benefit when the US economy picks up. In 2015, the US economy is going to get a boost from low energy prices.
Offsetting that hit is the positive impact the lower oil price will have on the US economy. We think about it like this. Everything that originates with oil is cheaper now. All of the derivative products that come from oil are cheaper. Every household budget is improved by the drop in the cost of fuel. Various estimates of the positive impact that lower energy prices will have on the US economy are centered at about $450 billion."
>>>My take is only the direct reduction of gasoline prices will have an impact upon the consumer. Companies that benefit from all things related to lower energy costs will not pass those savings to the consumer. Why would or should they?
"If we are close to right, and if these estimates are within a 20% to 30% margin of error, 2015 will deliver accelerating growth in the US. We will enjoy continuing low interest rates as the Fed gradually normalizes policy. Low inflation lends additional confidence to the forecast, because energy price pressures are removed. The US stock market is likely to reflect these trends."
>>>Overall, yes. U.S. centric will likely remain to have the most potential for reduced risk returns relative to global otherwise.
:) Per MFO: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it. :)
So, tis all IMO.
Take care,
Catch

FYI: As we approach 2015, two standout sectors remain overweight in our US ETF (exchange-traded fund) portfolios. They are the Utilities and the Transportation sectors. Both sectors are largely domestic American businesses. (Most of the companies in the ETFs that we select are not dependent on currency exchange rates to either beef up or reduce their earnings.) Both sectors focus on the pace of the US economic recovery. Each sector has limited (but some) exposure to the geopolitically troubled regions of the world. Each sector is helped by persistently low US oil prices.
Regards,
Ted
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2014/12/two-sectors-two-observations/print/

At today's close, we are about 1% below the S&P 500 100EMA, and the current Fear & Greed Index is a bullish 18 ("Extreme Fear"). Right here, right now, I expect a move higher in domestic equities and currency-hedged foreign equities (DBEF, HEDJ).
Kevin

We want the highest confidence statistical outcomes via a large data sample on our side as we can have so as to develop a "gist" of what the year will look like historically and have emotional preparedness, if necessary.
Component 3 of our model identifies the risk profile for the year during the 3rd week of Januarys. https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/18kMFJrq_F384HhHUS-lU1C8ec4NdmmjkCrCsye_shE8/edit?usp=sharing
You can see from the slides that the preponderance of steep decline years occurred in the high risk profile years, a couple in the neutral profile years, and a one in the Favorable "invested first half" profile. 2014 is shaping up with an above average performance in the context of having been a neutral risk profile year.
The rest of components for model are here: http://stockmarketmap.wordpress.com/2013/08/29/market-map-basic-version/
In terms of economic validation, the economic conditions index can alert us of drastic economic slowing and affect on stock prices ( we only use this as a confirmation of the model as the data sample is not robust enough, although it has done a good job none the less )
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1IqXuggnKY7fDH-i_96uMIOlmhzS7ei-dreUZ_8dpatc/edit?usp=sharing
We'll see the results of component 3's calculation for 2015 during January

Happy holidays MFOs;
Is another black-swan or turmoil like event coming soon in 2015?

When was the last one?

Most people consider the 07/08 credit crisis a black swan event.

Happy holidays MFOs;
Is another black-swan or turmoil like event coming soon in 2015?

When was the last one?

Happy holidays MFOs;
Is another black-swan or turmoil like event coming soon in 2015? Any thoughts how to play this market?
I am still 80/20 but still have many yrs left. thinking about buying more oil
Merry xmas/happy new yr

At least SJB tracks better than RYILX and AFBIX. I think this is something like the third time in the past 25 years Rydex (RYILX) has tried an inverse junk bond fund and all with terrible results. As for AFBIX the worst of the worst as an inverse junk fund. 2008 alone was a disaster when it was suppose to shine. I am biased against junk bond ETFs including munis, so I wouldn't touch them with a 10 ft pole - JNK, HYG, HYD. I am also biased against shorting (anything) so shorting junk is never on my radar screen. Had I shorted every time I was bearish over the years (equities or bonds) I would probably now be a pauper begging for coins with a tin cup.
I'm worried about the junk munis wondering if I should rotate some to investment munis. But will let price dictate my actions not my mood.

Andy,
At the time of writing this post, SJB is down -0.14% and JNK is down -0.65%.
That is a pretty big tracking discrepancy for two highly liquid ETF's, IMO.
I would expect a short junk bond etf to be at least in positive territory today.

Hi @JohnChisum
Fido indicates a - 2.6% for "life" of the fund through 12-15-14.
Fidelity view
Take care,
Catch

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ex-goldman-trader-correctly-shorted-152002886.html
To update the above. As of Friday, the average junk bond fund per Morningstar was negative 0.24%. The Merrill Lynch High Yield Master II Index was positive 0.84%. Today's negative price action just adds to the junk bond woes. We better not hope this is a reverse of 2008/09 where junk bonds led stocks with junk bottoming in mid December and stocks early March. It's been completely different in junk munis which have been making YTD highs this month (until today in some of the funds) I am 89% in junk munis but they are on a tight rein.

Junkster, in a recent post you mentioned that junk bond funds might be setting up for a buy in the next few months. How will you judge when this buying opportunity arrives?

Gross knows fixed income and seems bright enough. Problem is sorting out the useful info he gives you from his attempts to move markets in one direction or another for the benefit his own investment agenda. So take everything from him with a big grain of salt.
His argument, which I heard on Bloomberg, makes sense on the surface. TIPS, by his math, are currently only pricing in around 1.5% inflation going forward. By the Fed's own pronouncements, they have a target of at least 2% inflation. So, Gross sees TIPS as undervalued relative to a 2+% or higher rate of inflation.
His statement that the Fed can always "print more money" to meet or exceed that inflation target is a bit suspect. Yes, but --- He's not factoring in the political pressures that could arise and thwart any Fed efforts in that direction. The 2016 Pres election will be huge. Still, I like Gross's argument. TIPS are probably a better alternative to plain old cash at this time.
I don't know anything about Mr. Gundlach. "Losers" probably isn't a term my fund managers at T. Rowe Price, Dodge & Cox or Oakmark would toss around. Nor would they attempt to confront or demean their competition at other firms. Has nothing to do with the rightness or wrongness of Mr. G's case. But possibly lacking decorum.
BTW: Where's Fundalarm? Really understands this stuff.

I don't invest in the fund but have a couple of thoughts. First, I believe the fund's N class shares, ETGLX, are available at Fidelity, Schwab and others with no load and a 1.5% ER. I didn't check that, but its what M* says on their page for the class N shares.
Second, the fund's website worried me at first because it sounds like a religious driven fund and I'm normally not a big fan of those types of themes but as I read further I think its influenced by a faith based approach but its not employed in such a restrictive way that it causes problems.
Finally, my mid-growth fund of choice is POAGX, which is closed now, but I generally compare anything else to it for perspective. The returns have been amazingly similar year after year, but Primecap's expense ratio is only 0.64% so before expenses Eventide has done great but their price takes all of the extra performance for themselves (I wonder how that fits in with the faith based approach?). When I read about their investment approach, although they use different words and themes, they seem to end up in much the same place. The one thing that disturbed me was that Eventide's bear market rank was 68 and we haven't experienced a really bad bear market during its life so I'd worry a little about what will happen if we do.

Johnchisum thanks for reply. I took a look at your fund & Chuck shows 154 long positions & 26 short as of 9/30/14. It looks to be down 2.43 % YTD. What do you like about this newbie MF ?
Derf

That's how it feels =)...

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ex-goldman-trader-correctly-shorted-152002886.html
To update the above. As of Friday, the average junk bond fund per Morningstar was negative 0.24%. The Merrill Lynch High Yield Master II Index was positive 0.84%. Today's negative price action just adds to the junk bond woes. We better not hope this is a reverse of 2008/09 where junk bonds led stocks with junk bottoming in mid December and stocks early March. It's been completely different in junk munis which have been making YTD highs this month (until today in some of the funds) I am 89% in junk munis but they are on a tight rein.

The performance relative to other similar funds is superior going back to 5 year returns.
Personally, I would not buy this because of the very high front load. If you are comfortable with the front load or can buy this without the front load; this fund may be worth consideration for you, if this sector fills a space in your portfolio that you desire to have.
As with any fund right now; one finds a very good opportunity to observe fund reactions to the current market turmoil.
E.R. at 1.5% and a 5.75% front load. If one has to pay the front load, well.....and the e.r. is very steep.
Lastly, I will presume that returns that are posted for this fund are loaded adjusted. I can not confirm this data.
Composition

From Bloomberg article:

Burrows’s attempt to exploit a vulnerability in the way rail travel is priced is a microcosm of the behavior of how some traders sought to profit from the way currency and interest rate benchmarks such as Libor are calculated -- regardless of rules requiring honest personal conduct. Banning someone from the industry over something unrelated to work-place conduct shows how seriously the FCA takes telling the truth as it tries to rebuild trust in London’s financial markets, lawyers said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-15/former-blackrock-managing-director-banned-for-evading-rail-fares.html
From BBC News:
bbc.com/news/business-30475232

FYI: Long-Term Investors Hesitate to Make New Bets on Equities Before End of Year.
Regards,
Ted
WSJ Slant: http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-stock-futures-rise-after-last-weeks-selloff-1418649802
Bloomberg Slant: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-12-15/u-s-index-futures-signal-rebound-for-s-p-500-dow-after-rout.html
Reuters Slant: http://www.reuters.com/assets/print?aid=USKBN0JT1AM20141215
Markets At A Glance: http://markets.wsj.com/us
Sector Tracker: http://www.sectorspdr.com/sectorspdr/tools/sector-tracker

FYI:
Regards,
Ted
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000339153&play=1