US 10 year at 2.11% the 52 week low is 1.91%
When will it hit 1%?
Germany, Spain, Italy, UK all lower then the US!

A close below 2% and I pay Heezsafe $250 or if he has disappeared, I simply contribute to David and the board. This will be less than 1/10 of 1% of what I made in junk munis this year. The moral of the story is trade what you see, not what you think!! In other words, go with price and only price and leave your opinions and beliefs (and especially those of the experts) behind. No way did I ever think rates would get this low. In fact, I was among the mass of misinformed who thought rates had only one way to go at the beginning of the year and that was up.

US 10 year at 2.11% the 52 week low is 1.91%
When will it hit 1%?
Germany, Spain, Italy, UK all lower then the US!

@JohnChisum
I amended my statement about PQTIX; as there was a distribution on Dec. 10, yesterday.
But, I will watch this fund, too; to find how it does with the overall market directions.
This is Fido composition view for PQTIX.

Pretty crazy stuff recently related (supposedly) to oil pricing; and hopefully most are not getting their investment arse kicked with some of this. It is a very good time to review this or that fund or sector or stock to discover reactions over the past few weeks; and into the future, as needed. One fund that has been noted again recently is PQTIX PQTDX. On Dec. 10, yesterday; this fund closed down -3.5% and today, closed at +.35%. No, I don't know what this means for this fund.
*****Opps, my bad. PQTIX PQTDX had distributions on Dec. 10, yesterday.
scott noted about HYG in the oil thread. The below is my note regarding the high yield bond sector, in particular; the active managed funds.
As to your reference to HYG. This etf did have (have not checked for the past week) 18% of its composition involved in energy debt, so its price decline makes sense. The current nasty problem for those invested in high yield bond funds is: harmful or undesirable contact or influence; also know as contagion. This sector is taking a whack, too.
I have reviewed several hy bond funds where we have been invested previous; and the majority hold 5-8% directly related to the energy sector. Obviously, these small percentages have put downward pressure on the funds; but I suspect some of the downward price pressure is also tied to the down moves related to equity in general. Folks just moving away for now; although I sure would like to know where the monies are traveling.
Have you a good or bad surprise from any of your holdings, with the ongoing oil price melt?
Thank you and take care,
Catch

Just wanted to repost the Barron's interview here and point out the new 5-star rating by Morningstar on Dec. 8, 2014
Manager's Bio
Name: James Dondero
Age: 51
Title: Co-founder, president, portfolio manager
Scouring the Globe for Cheap Stocks and Bonds
Jim Dondero of the Highland Global Allocation Fund had a banner 2013. Here's what he's buying now.
Jim Dondero is a hunter who knows that you can't hit your target every time.
But Dondero and Mark Okada, who co-founded Highland Capital Management, a Dallas asset manager known for investing in distressed debt, shot a bull's-eye last year—a 30% return—in the Highland Global Allocation Fund (ticker: HCOAX).
That's a neat trick for a fund that is about 60% stocks, 40% bonds. Thanks in part to a big position in American Airlines Group stock (AAL), which tripled, as well as some of its debt holdings, the fund's performance was three times that of other funds in Morningstar's moderate risk "world allocation" category.
Dondero and his team of managers can hunt the globe, bundling their fixed-income expertise with stock picks across industries. The fund strategy was more equity-focused until 2013, and that especially smarted in 2008, when the fund sank 33%, or about 10 points worse than comparable funds. Willingness to take risks in turnaround stories has paid off recently, but Dondero does play defense: He can short stocks, and has been known to hold a significant cash position.
As a firm, Highland took its lumps during the financial crisis, shuttering two hedge funds as investors ran for the hills. Today, Highland has roughly $19 billion in assets under management, and a focus on collateralized loan obligations (CLOs) and alternative strategies in hedge funds, mutual funds and other portfolios.
Excerpts of our conversation with Dondero follow: He is eyeing Puerto Rico debt, he thinks Europe investments have had their run and suggests other areas where investors might take profits.
You can read the rest of the article here: http://online.barrons.com/articles/SB50001424053111904628504579423100003089692

FYI: Passive investing is hugely popular, and 2015 is shaping up to be a transitional year for capital markets, which may bring significant uncertainty and volatility. Therefore, the coming year could be a great time to take a close look at the best Vanguard funds.
Regards,
Ted
http://investorplace.com/2014/12/best-vanguard-funds-for-2015/print

Jeffrey Gundlach, in his quarterly commentary, mentions this possibility.
http://www.thinkadvisor.com/2014/12/10/gundlach-doubleline-total-return-may-close-to-new

low cost reit etf for low rate environments
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2741625-a-broad-low-cost-reit-etf-for-a-low-rate-environment

http://money.usnews.com/money/blogs/the-smarter-mutual-fund-investor/2014/12/10/5-investing-resolutions-for-2015
IndexIQ Deal Highlights Growth In Alternative ETFs
http://news.investors.com/investing-etfs/120814-729583-nontraditional-funds-gradually-increasing-within-investors-portfolios.htm
etf vitals signs/nasty days in oil patch
http://blogs.barrons.com/focusonfunds/2014/12/08/etf-market-vital-signs-dec-8-nasty-day-in-the-oil-patch/

“A Random Walk" is on its 11th edition and has sold more than 1.5 million copies
And yet, only 4 views on this site. Interesting.

I should take a closer look at Fidelity equity funds - I'd pretty much given up on them for several years (with exceptions like FLPSX). FSDIX looks interesting, though I've always had problems fitting hybrid funds into my portfolio.
I'm not clear on the point of FGRTX, for a couple of reasons. First, why single out these companies - can you find a large cap fund that doesn't already have Apple? Why overweight megacaps?
Second, megacaps would appear to be the portion of the market least likely to benefit from active management. One can get a pure megacap passive fund like OEF (iShares S&P 100), or the more concentrated, and even cheaper, BRLIX (Bridgeway Blue Chip 35 Index)?
Regarding FLPSX ... about a decade ago, I listened to a M* analyst talk about Tillinghast, describing how he could talk intelligently about every one of the hundreds of stocks in the portfolio. He added that this skill was well beyond what he'd seen in any other manager. The comments were in response to the usual question of how big can the fund get. It seems to keep going strong.
I ascribe its underperformance in the past few years to the large percentage of foreign holdings in its portfolio. I feel that in the long run, a large percentage of foreign stocks is a plus. Though I wonder why M* doesn't reclassify the fund as a world stock fund, as it did for MQIFX Mutual Quest (formerly Mutual Qualified).
Finally, as a short term play on healthcare, if one wants to make a political wager, it might make sense to pick up FSMEX (medical supply and equipment). If there's any part of ACA likely to be jettisoned, it's the excise tax on medical devices. I don't know how much of an impact that would have, I'm bad with sectors in general, and I don't do short term trading. So consider the source of that suggestion.

There is a terse discussion over at the M* forums on this same topic. Some additional thoughts can be read over there.
http://socialize.morningstar.com/NewSocialize/forums/p/343430/3593192.aspx#PageIndex=1

FYI: More flexibility on changing your 529-plan investments could be on the way.
Congress is likely to pass a bill that would allow investors in 529 college savings plans to make changes to their investment holdings twice a year—rewriting a major restriction that parents have faced with these plans since they launched in the 1990s.
Regards,
Ted
http://blogs.wsj.com/totalreturn/2014/12/10/college-savers-may-get-more-flexibility-in-529-plans/tab/print/?mg=blogs-wsj&url=http%3A%2F%2Fblogs.wsj.com%2Ftotalreturn%2F2014%2F12%2F10%2Fcollege-savers-may-get-more-flexibility-in-529-plans%2Ftab%2Fprint&fpid=2,121

FYI:
Regards,
Ted
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000337954&play=1

Hi BobC and All Contributors,
Thank you all for your perceptive contributions. BobC, you helped focus my attention and I agree with many of your keen and penetrating insights. You are spot on-target.
Jeffrey Gundlach has certainly prospered from a long and controversial career that included his heated and forced departure from TCW. His continued success story in the bond market is undeniable. He is definitely a serious forecaster who deserves respect.
Here is a Link that provides viewgraphs from his 2014 forward looking expectations:
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2014/01/Gundlah Year of the Horse.pdf
According to Advisor Perspectives, his 2013 projections were not all that solid. Nobody has a perfect record in the investment business. Even some of his 2014 predictions seem to be heading, perhaps momentarily, in the wrong direction. According to some folks in the industry, Gundlach is an arrogant, overly confident guru; that’s a necessary characteristic. It’s very acceptable given his superior track performance, but buyer beware.
Here is a Link to Advisor Perspectives’ interpretation of Gundlach’s 2014 projections:
http://www.advisorperspectives.com/newsletters14/Gundlachs_Forecast_for_2014.php
Regardless of his many successes and a few failures, I remain hugely suspicious of any long-term economic forecasts, especially from the macroeconomic community. These have a sad historical accuracy record. The odds deteriorate with time.
All of professor Phil Tetlock’s numerous forecaster accuracy studies consistently demonstrate the futility of these exercises. It is a daunting challenge to forecast even the next quarter’s outcome, and a near impossibility to look 10 years into the future. Accuracy degrades rapidly over time, especially among the economists cohort who seem to be very fragile in the forecasting arena. According to studies that date back into the 1930s, forecasters can’t forecast.
Like Catch22, I too like MFO poster bflotomny’s original balanced mutual fund portfolio. Both the Vanguard Wellington and Wellesley funds have proven performance records. I have held both these Vanguard products in my portfolio for over 20 years. I also have held a third Balance fund, Dodge and Cox Balance mutual fund, for over 2 decades. This formidable triad gives me geographic management thinking diversification.
Thanks again for an excellent set of submittals. This includes everyone. I concur that no immediate action is necessary.
Best Regards.

So far as I can tell, there isn't any real difference between those two portfolios. Pretty much a 50/50 stock/bond split, dividend-paying stocks in both, mostly intermediate corporate bonds with both. I don't see any reason to bother with the change.
On the other topic, it is interesting that Gundlach is thinking so much about demographics (and for what it's worth, which is nothing, I have to say that I pretty much agree with him), but until it becomes tactically relevant it doesn't have much to do with investing. Not in liquid markets, anyway. And if you can analyze exactly when it becomes tactically relevant, then you can become a Bond King, too!

"...All told, this is not the time to be bearish on Japan... we think it means that
non-US equities are likely to perk up, and perhaps even outperform the S&P 500...I'm
seeing 12%-to-15% earnings growth in Europe next year... In 92% of the time when interest rates rise, value beats growth.... I'm still concerned about China. I would focus on emerging countries that do a lot of business with the US. So, in Asia, I like Hong Kong and Taiwan, and I still like Mexico—but not much else..."

0%
"Wall Street's New Happy Hour" (from last July)
http://money.cnn.com/2014/07/14/investing/liquid-alternatives/
Is cash a liquid alternative? In that case, I'd guess 5-35% depending on age would be appropriate.

Currently --- USA, China, Japan, Europe are all worried about and trying to avoid deflation.
If interest rates rise there will be external pressure for the USA to institute a VAT, slowing economic growth and lowering inflation - look at Europe and Japan.
Longer term --- the world population is going from 7B in 2000 to 10B in 2050 - that is a 42.8% increase. The world went from 1B in 1800 to 10B in 250 years. USA, China, Japan, Europe populations are ageing during this time while the growth in population is in 3rd world countries. The effects are wide ranging - research it.
I know I'm going against the trend but I would be more concerned about deflation.

FYI: The author of "A Random Walk Down Wall Street" has walked all the way to Silicon Valley.
Burton Malkiel has been giving much the same investing advice for four decades: Keep fees low and don’t believe advisers and fund managers who promise to beat the market. Lately, he's championed global diversification, and especially emerging market stocks. Lots of people have listened to the Princeton University professor -- “A Random Walk" is on its 11th edition and has sold more than 1.5 million copies
Regards,
Ted
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-12-09/burt-malkiel-walk-away-from-2015-know-it-alls.html