Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • The Top Performing And Yielding Dividend Funds
    Best- and worst-performing alternatives funds
    Ranked by one-year total returns
    http://www.investmentnews.com/article/20141116/CHART02/141119924
    Largest alternatives funds
    Ranked by net assets
    http://www.investmentnews.com/article/20141116/CHART02/141119925
    Off-Topic
    FOREIGN POLICY UNVEILS SIXTH ANNUAL
    “100 LEADING GLOBAL THINKERS” ISSUE
    Krugman not on list, Thomas Piketty is.A two to three paragraph synopsis of people who have impacted 2014 to date.
    November 17, 2014 — WASHINGTON, D.C. — Today, Foreign Policy released its sixth annual “100 Leading Global Thinkers” issue, recognizing a year of tumult, protest, inspiration, and new beginnings.
    “Each year our list of leading Global Thinkers spotlights those who have translated their ideas into actions, impacting millions worldwide,” said David Rothkopf, Editor and CEO of The FP Group. “It is a chance to reflect on who and what is driving change today and who will shape it tomorrow.”
    The issue, and the Global Thinkers, will be honored at a dinner celebration in Washington on the evening of the 17th. Between 40 and 50 of the honorees, coming in from all parts of the world, will participate in a Town Hall discussion at The Four Seasons Hotel. Earlier, they will also join panel discussions as part of "Transformational Trends: A Year of Disruptive Thinking", an innovative policy conference, now in its 3rd year, jointly sponsored by FP and the State Department’s Policy Planning Staff. Secretary of State John Kerry is the keynote speaker of the conference.
    This year’s issue focuses on the events that disrupted the global order – for better or for worse. In a year when Russia annexed Crimea and the Islamic State redefined the very nature of terrorism, a group of Indian scientists and engineers also showed the world how to send a spacecraft to Mars on a budget, and a Japanese naturalist demonstrated how trees could be used to mitigate the worst consequences of climate change. In this issue, Foreign Policy celebrates those who have meaningfully contributed to improving our global community, and acknowledge the impact of those who have disrupted it.
    This year’s diverse group of Global Thinker honorees are organized into ten categories:
    The “Decision Makers” includes India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Germany’s Chancellor Angela Merkel, and Mexico’s Secretary of Finance, Luis Videgaray; the “Challengers,” who have defied the norm and reshuffled the deck, include journalist Kara Swisher, and Joshua Wong, the student leader of the Hong Kong protests; among the “Naturals” is Ruth Buendia, the Peruvian activist; “The Innovators” includes Harvard engineer Jennifer Lewis and microbiologist Janet Iwasa; and “The Advocates,” those who risk everything to fight for what they believe in, include civic activist Hanna Hopko.
    “The Chroniclers,” are the masters of storytelling, among them political television personality John Oliver; there are “The Healers,” such as Drs. Kevin Whaley and Larry Zeitlin who created ZMapp, a major breakthrough for Ebola treatment; “The Artists” includes sculptor and artist Kara Walker; “The Moguls,” including Jack Ma of Alibaba Group, are a collection of individuals always looking for “the next big thing”; and finally there are “The Agitators”, among them terrorist leaders, ideologues, and wily financiers, including the Islamic State’s Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi and Russia’s President Vladimir Putin. When its history is written, 2014 will be remembered as a year when remarkable individuals changed the world as we know it.
    From the Editor’s Letter: "Take our cover image, a Molotov cocktail in mid-explosion. It’s a metaphor for violence, certainly, but also one for defiance, for resistance, for unleashing the startlingly new. The image, like the majority of Global Thinkers on our list, is a reminder that change can start at any second: change that is destructive, beautiful, inspirational – sometimes all at once."
    Also in the latest issue, journalist and author George Packer writes about today’s “Agitators”, from the annexation of Crimea to the rise of ISIS; Gillian Tett, award- winning journalist from the Financial Times discusses the public’s enthrallment with Thomas Piketty; and environmentalist Bill McKibben writes an essay on the climate change crisis in 2014.
    VISIT THE INTERACTIVE SITE FOR FP’S LEADING GLOBAL THINKERS OF 2014 HERE
    http://globalthinkers.foreignpolicy.com
  • A bit of what I call a broad vacuum (sucks) market day, eh??? 1 fund & 1 stock up for this house....
    The new economy revisited?(Broad spectrum not broad vacuum?) Info highway/clean efficient transportation vs capital intensive mining and oil e&p.
    Assorted news stories from early week. PVSAX Putnam Capital Spectrum Fund Class A +0.58(+1.48%) and PYSAX Putnam Equity Spectrum Fund Class A +0.58(+1.32%) both have a large stake in DISH that gave them a nice gain today.They both trail SPY Y T D but both have strong 5 year returns.
    Another wild-card bidder is Dish Network. There has been speculation that Dish Chairman Charlie Ergen wants to drive bidding prices up to help increase the value of the nearby airwaves licenses that Dish owns
    Nov 19, 6:40PM EST
    DISH 74.66 +6.81 (+10.04%)
    Statoil (NYSE:STO) says it will suspend operations of two offshore drilling rigs for at least the rest of the year, with no plans for redeployment, citing overcapacity.
    Transocean slides as fleet update shows more rigs idled
    http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/RIG
    Closing the mine is not CLF's first choice, but an attempt to find partners to share the cost of expansion appears to have failed, and selling a mine that needs $1.2B in capital is a doubtful prospect; even Teck Resources (NYSE:TCK), long interested in breaking into the iron ore business, isn't biting.If a sale process fails, a closure of Bloom Lake would close the books one of the worst acquisitions in the history of Canadian mining.
    http://seekingalpha.com/news/2138385-cliffs-massive-closure-costs-for-bloom-lake-stuns-investors
    Bidding in the FCC's AWS-3 spectrum auction have reached $24.1B barely 24 hours after topping $14B. Through 15 rounds, $1.19B alone was bid on a 10x10 MHz. license for the NYC area.
    http://seekingalpha.com/news/2138395-spectrum-bids-top-24b-at-and-t-verizon-seen-spending-heavily
    Linked from S A article
    http://recode.net/2014/11/19/wireless-auction-attracts-whopping-24-billion-in-bids-so-far/
    "We know there is a good potential in India for Tesla," Mr Vijayan said, adding "based on demand there could be a manufacturing plant in Asia and India could be one of the possible locations".
    He said Tesla has been working to produce affordable electric car to cater to the mass segment.
    "With our 3rd generation car Tesla Model 3, we are looking to make it more affordable at a price of around USD 30,000-35,000, which is about half of our current Model S," Vijayan said.
    The company has a manufacturing plant at Freemont in US that can roll out half a million units annually (If Tesla can achieve that $30-35 thou price point they'll probably be able to put a plant anywhere they want!)
    http://profit.ndtv.com/news/industries/article-tesla-keen-to-enter-india-but-says-high-import-duty-a-roadblock-700069
    Norwegian Air CEO rejects criticism of plan for U.S. budget airline
    BY ALWYN SCOTT AND JEFFREY DASTIN
    NEW YORK/SEATTLE Wed Nov 19, 2014 8:09pm EST
    Norwegian is one of the first airlines trying to bring low-cost flying to long-haul flights. It has a fleet of 17 Boeing 787 Dreamliners and plans to order at least five to 10 more.
    Kjos said the Irish subsidiary is necessary to obtain access for all of Norwegian's aircraft to fly between the United States, Europe and Asia. If the company is only incorporated in Norway, it does not have access to many countries in Asia, since Norway is not part of the European Union. That would leave Norwegian running two airlines that separately serve the United States and Asia, and not able to shift aircraft from one region to the other.
    They (opponents)say Norwegian will dodge U.S. labor laws by using its Irish subsidiary to take advantage of labor laws that are weaker than in Norway, threatening U.S. jobs.
    "It would be a logistical nightmare," Kjos said. "We can't have one airline flying east, one airline flying west." http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/11/20/us-usa-airlines-norwegian-air-idUSKCN0J402I20141120
    By COSTAS PARIS Copyright W S J
    Updated Nov. 17, 2014 8:49 a.m. ET
    (paste and copy)
    LONDON—Shipping freight rates from Asia to Europe, the world’s busiest trade route, on Monday logged their biggest-ever weekly drop, as European growth is stagnating and Japan just fell back into recession.
    Container-shipping volumes are considered an important barometer of the global economy. Container ships move items as diverse as household goods, apparel, toys, electronics and food. Analysts said they expected further shipping-rate weakness because the peak demand season for Asian exports ahead of the end-of-year holidays is already over.
    Prices between Asian and European ports fell 21% per 20-foot container to $934, compared with $1,175 at the beginning of last week, according to the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index.The benchmark Asia-to-Europe rate stood at $1,765 per container at the start of the year.
    “Shipping lines have at this point lost control over freight rates,” said Jonathan Roach, container-shipping analyst at London-based Braemar ACM Shipbroking. “They are desperately trying to fill their ships while being hit by a double whammy: a renewed global economic slowdown and a persistent overcapacity of ships.”
    (subscription) http://online.wsj.com/articles/asia-europe-shipping-freight-rates-suffer-record-weekly-fall-1416226192
    TV Studios Court Licensing Deals in Bustling Foreign Markets
    By AMOL SHARMA
    Nov. 19, 2014 10:33 p.m. ET Copyright W S J (paste and copy)
    For Warner Bros. and other U.S. studios, the international TV-licensing bazaar has never been more lucrative
    Licensing content to foreign TV channels is one of several ways U.S. media companies are tapping into growing overseas markets as they contend with a maturing pay-TV market at home. The U.S. growth in pay-TV subscriptions over the past 30 years has fueled the profits of TV channels and, in turn, created higher demand for the content studios like Warner produce.
    Now, U.S. cable and satellite connections have peaked at around 100 million households, representing 86.5% penetration. That compares with an average penetration of just 48% across non-U.S. markets in 2013, according to securities firm Jefferies, leaving plenty of room for growth in European, Asian and Latin American markets.
    As new international channels launch, they have voracious demand for content. The price paid by international networks for TV programming is growing at a double-digit pace, says Morgan Stanley analyst Benjamin Swinburne. “American studios have a huge advantage,” he said. “They can afford the kind of production budgets that most national players in their own market can’t.” (Content sales also go the other direction, of course, and U.S. TV networks have long licensed reality shows from foreign producers and are ramping up on scripted content, too.)
    (subscription)http://online.wsj.com/articles/tv-studios-court-licensing-deals-in-bustling-foreign-markets-1416454383?mod=WSJ_hp_RightTopStories
  • Morningstar's Portfolio Manager Price Updating Concern ...
    Sorry for the drop-out period- it was dinner time. OK, now at 6:37pm PST, here's what M* has to offer for ARTGX:
    ARTGX 15.5 -13.75 -3.43 Artisan Global Value Investor
    As Max said, this is just risible. They finally got the closing price posted, but they show a drop of $13.75, or 3.43%. from the previous day's post. Let's see now: with a drop of $13.75, and today's post at $15.50, that would have put yesterdays supposed value at $29.25. A 3.43% drop from $29.25 would be $1.02, making today's new number $28.23.
    Reality intervenes: Yesterdays value was actually $16.05. Today's value is actually $15.50. Yesterday's value of 16.05 did actually decrease by 3.43%, which is 55¢, making the new number $15.50, which it is. So I guess that M* figures that 2 out of 3 is OK. When I was in grammar school, unfortunately 2 out of 3 was only 66%, which was a failing grade by anyone's measure.
    What a joke!
  • Morningstar's Portfolio Manager Price Updating Concern ...
    At 5:35pm PST it looks as if M* finally caught up to Google, except for ARTGX, which is down 55¢ because of a distribution today.
    I'm seeing the update on ARTGX now.......are you?
    And were you referring to the "main" M* quote, or just the quote as seen in Portfolio Manager?
  • Morningstar's Portfolio Manager Price Updating Concern ...
    At 5:35pm PST it looks as if M* finally caught up to Google, except for ARTGX, which is down 55¢ because of a distribution today.

    M*
    .INX 2048.72 OK -
    ABNDX 12.75 OK - AF
    AIBAX 13.53 OK - AF
    AHITX 10.99 OK - AF
    ABALX 26.11 OK - AF
    ANCFX 55.54 OK - AF
    SMCWX 49.47 OK - AF
    CWGIX 47.28 OK - AF
    ANEFX 39.97 OK - AF
    TAFTX 17.73 OK - AF
    AMHIX 15.45 OK - AF
    AMCPX 29.69 OK - AF
    ACMVX 17.8 OK - AC
    TWSMX 7.59 OK - AC
    ABHIX 6.02 OK - AC
    BUFBX 14.87 OK -
    PRBLX 41.09 OK -
    VVPSX 19.3 OK -
    GABAX 68 OK -
    MAPIX 15.62 OK -
    LSBRX 15.42 OK -
    SFGIX 11.52 OK -
    MFLDX 16.47 OK -
    GASFX 31.2 OK -
    ARTGX 16.05 Error No Update
    RSIVX 10.23 OK -
    RPHYX 9.95 OK -
    WAFMX 3.23 OK -
    GPROX 12.71 OK -
    SCHD 40.19 OK -
  • A bit of what I call a broad vacuum (sucks) market day, eh??? 1 fund & 1 stock up for this house....
    Had a couple of wieners: GASFX up a hundred bucks, some muni funds up $50. Overall: we don' wanna go there...
  • Maintenance complete on 11/15

    By the way catch22, some advise. Get a SSD for your device. Mine use to take over 2 minutes to boot. Now it is 5 seconds.
    @Maurice, is this with your computer on standby or 'sleep' for the night......or turned off?
    If you can turn the power on and have it boot in 5 seconds.....that's an amazing thing. Still very fast to boot from standby/sleep/hibernate or whatever in 5 seconds.
  • Is Bruce B. out of the mortgage business?
    FAIRX up today. Fannie and Freddie common stock both up big, approx. 12%
    The preferreds were up around 5%
  • ARTGX Distribution?
    If I'm reading this correctly it was a distribution. The 55 cents adds up.
    https://www.artisanfunds.com/distributions/current.cfm
  • Morningstar's Portfolio Manager Price Updating Concern ...
    ACMVX. $17.80
    MAPIX. $15.62
    Just noticed MAPIX did update.
  • ARTGX Distribution?
    ARTGX dropped 55¢ today, some 3.4%. Does anyone happen to know if there was a distribution, or any other reason for this?
    Thanks- OJ
  • Morningstar's Portfolio Manager Price Updating Concern ...
    As you can see, at 4:15pm PST google has it's act together. M* certainly does not. Note the unevenness even within the AF (American Fund) and AC (American Century) fund families.

    M*
    .INX 2048.72 OK -
    ABNDX 12.75 OK - AF
    AIBAX 13.53 OK - AF
    AHITX 10.99 OK - AF
    ABALX 26.11 OK - AF
    ANCFX 55.6 Error No Update AF
    SMCWX 49.7 Error No Update AF
    CWGIX 47.38 Error No Update AF
    ANEFX 39.97 OK - AF
    TAFTX 17.72 Error No Update AF
    AMHIX 15.44 Error No Update AF
    AMCPX 29.81 Error No Update AF
    ACMVX 17.84 Error No Update AC
    TWSMX 7.59 OK - AC
    ABHIX 6.04 Error No Update AC
    BUFBX 14.87 OK -
    PRBLX 41.21 Error No Update
    VVPSX 19.37 Error No Update
    GABAX 68 OK -
    MAPIX 15.62 OK -
    LSBRX 15.42 OK -
    SFGIX 11.52 OK -
    MFLDX 16.47 OK -
    GASFX 31.08 Error No Update
    ARTGX 16.05 Error No Update
    RSIVX 10.23 OK -
    RPHYX 9.95 OK -
    WAFMX 3.23 OK -
    GPROX 12.71 OK -
    SCHD 40.19 OK -

  • Morningstar's Portfolio Manager Price Updating Concern ...
    Wednesday 6:50 pm EST & 'my portfolio'@ morningstar is still not updated !!!
    ralph
    ------------------------------------------------------------------
    ALSO -- Here is a recent 'cut & paste' reply to another poster on the M* forum.
    --Re: Incorrect mutual fund prices on Morningstar.com11-17-2014, 7:19 PM
    "It's a sad state of affairs when we cannot trust the mutual fund quotes in Morningstar and have to go to other sources to find out what the correct price is."
    -------------------------------------------
    - Hello
    ---I have been checking 'other sources' for correct prices and M* has not gotten their act together.
    ---- for YEARS !!!!!
    retris
  • Your Bond Rating Quiz
    @fundalarm: Yes, Microsoft Corp. (MSFT), the world’s largest software maker, is proving the value of an AAA rating.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2012-11-05/microsoft-plumbs-yield-depths-with-aaa-issue-corporate-finance.html
  • Lyrical US Value Equity
    I wonder whether anybody has an opinion about Lyrical US Value Equity Fund (LYRBX, of LYRIX). It behaved wonderfully for quite a while, until the recent market correction. Apparently the manager was quite successful even before LYRIX, see http://online.barrons.com/articles/SB50001424053111904703704579507412703189836
    What do you think?
  • The Top Performing And Yielding Dividend Funds
    FYI: The dividend mutual funds with the best 15-year average annual returns aren't among those bearing the highest yield. In fact, five of the top seven in performance yield less than the S&P 500's 1.87%.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://license.icopyright.net/user/viewFreeUse.act?fuid=MTg2Nzc5OTE=
    Enlarged Graphic: http://news.investors.com/photopopup.aspx?path=WEBlv111914.gif&docId=727114&xmpSource=&width=1000&height=1152&caption=&id=727115
  • Buffett and Munger: Latticework of Models
    Hi Guys,
    During the early phases of World War II, the US Army Air Force suffered brutal losses on its bombing missions. The returning planes were damaged by numerous bullet holes. What to do to improve the survival odds of our brave pilots and crew members?
    A statistician was asked to research this dire problem. He examined each surviving plane and carefully catalogued the damaged areas. He recommended increased armor plating.
    He surprisingly concluded that the additional heavy armor only be placed on those sections of the plane that were not damaged by enemy fire. Why? His thinking was that all enemy fire impacted each plane in a random manner. The returning fleet had survived their impacts and the missing members did not.
    The statistician reasoned that the fallen planes must have been hit in the areas not damaged by the survivors. He theorized that it was those areas that were critical to continued flying. This interpretation dictated where the bulk of the additional armor protection was needed. His recommendation was executed and the rate of downed aircraft substantially decreased. Thinking a little outside the box with a full toolbox increases the odds of success.
    Integrating statistics into tough decisions can work miracles. That’s true in wartime, and it’s also true when investing. Throughout his lifetime, Warren Buffett counted on a little rudimentary statistical analysis and Probability Theory to inform his decisions. He practiced a force multiplier effect when he merged simple math with a commonsense approach.
    As a young boy Buffett published a racetrack tip sheet (stable-boy selections. 25 cents per copy) that was data intensive. He still uses elementary Probability rules when making his multimillion dollar investment assessments today.
    Buffett said: “Take the probability of loss times the amount of possible loss from the probability of gain times the amount of possible gain. That it what we're trying to do. It's imperfect, but that's what it is all about."
    This is nothing more sophisticated than a standard estimate of expected net returns. Of course, the challenging part of this exercise is to assemble reasonable probability and gain/loss estimates.
    Buffett and his partner Charlie Munger are somewhat unique. In making their judgments, this brilliant team continuously use and update their probability estimates. This is a working illustration of a Conditional Probability (Bayesian) approach. We all do the same when coming to an investment choice, sometimes consciously, sometimes subconsciously, and perhaps even sometimes unconsciously.
    It seems like Munger has been more forceful in extolling the virtues of rudimentary Probability Theory than Buffett: “If you don’t get this……. elementary probability into your repertoire, then you go through a long life like a one-legged man in an ass-kicking contest”. Munger has a way with words.
    Munger advocates Probability Theory as just one tool in an extensive toolkit. He disclosed his investment thinking structure in a 1994 lecture at USC titled “A Lesson on Elementary Worldly Wisdom As It Relates To Investment Management & Business”. It is rather long, but delivers superior advice. Here is a Link to it:
    http://www.trailblazercoaching.com/articles/worldly-wisdom-by-charlie-munger.pdf
    Enjoy. If it works for the Buffett-Munger team, it can be made to work for us too with just a little effort. A complete investment toolkit is always more useful then one missing critical parts.
    Best Regards.
  • Sell Before/After Distribution?
    Jerry is addressing the question of whether to liquidate completely (and implicitly, this year or across multiple years). That's because of extra taxes/higher rates that could kick in.
    Edit: Upon rereading, I see Jerry largely addressed the item I also discussed below:
    Let me address a slightly different question - assuming you are going to liquidate this year, do you do that before or after dividends? Simple rule of thumb: liquidate all your long term shares before distributions. Short term shares are (usually) better liquidated after distribution.
    For example, suppose you have a LT share purchased at $100. It's now priced at $110. Suppose also that the distribution is going to be $3 LTG, $2 ord income. The price will drop to $105.
    Sell before distribution and you have $10 LTG. Sell after, and you realize a $5 LTG. But you've also got a $3 LTG distribution, and $2 in ord income. That $10 realized LTG is better than the $8 LTG ($5 + $3) and $2 ordinary income.
    The reasoning on the short term shares is the same, just backward. You're usually worse off realizing STG than getting the some of those gains as LTG distributions and some as ord income.
  • Sell Before/After Distribution?
    It really depends in part on your tax bracket and how close you are to critical levels such as $250k for married $200k for single. Check this link for more info on that issue http://www.irs.gov/uac/Newsroom/Net-Investment-Income-Tax-FAQs
    Another factor to check out is the probability you will owe money to the Alternative Minimum Tax because of large capital gains. (small gains probably won't affect this)
    \Obviously if you sell your entire position in one or more of these funds you will have a higher income and amount of "investment income " than you would if you just took distributions (presumably since you don't like the performance you will not be reinvesting the dividends.. If you are close to critical levels such as the ACA surcharge levels or the much lower levels where tax brackets for capital gains change you should do the careful calculation to determine your best action..All things being equal and given that we are near the end of the year it is likely that a good option (not necessarily the best)would be to sell one fund before distribution but only the shares on which you have a long term gain(because the distribution will include dividends taxed at a higher rate). Once you get into the new year you can reconsider the situation. One minor value in putting things off is that the market is likely (because it usually does) go up in the months at the end of a year.