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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Morningstar's Portfolio Manager Price Updating Concern ...
    Is this on their website or via the app? I don't use M* but my other apps usually settle about 1.5-3 hours after the close depending on how busy a day it was. Yours seems like something might be wrong at M*.
  • Morningstar's Portfolio Manager Price Updating Concern ...
    Is anybody that uses Moringstar's Portfolio System having a concern with timely price updating of their mutual funds after market close?
    It use to be that I'd have relative good price updaing by 6:30 PM EST. During the past couple of months it seems the price updating is taking longer and longer ... and, as I write this, one of my securities SGGDX has not yet updated with Friday's closing price ... and, today is Saturday, 7:50 AM EST.
  • Fairholme and Sears Update
    FAIRX ytd -1.68% last month +8.56%
    Maybe it is time to sell.
    Holdings top 2: AIG +6.34%, BAC +11.95%
    The rest... with exception of St Joe, all are down double digit ytd.
    Interesting discussion comparing JOE and the Ackman-chaired HHC from a couple of years ago. You can see the difference in the two stocks since.
    http://www.tilsonfunds.com/pdf/A Tale of Two Stocks-Kiplinger's-8-11.pdf
    The beginning of the end? That's what it looks like to me.
    http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/11/07/us-sears-holdings-reit-idUSKBN0IR13B20141107
    Up to 300 stores to be sold. If they want to make it an online presence, they still have to change the whole model of what Sears is.
    Sears is selling the stores to the REIT and leasing them back. So, effectively, Sears is the tenant of the REIT in those cases. It's sort of what Ackman wanted Target to do several years ago, but Target wasn't having it.
    If Sears does this REIT, "While the REIT move would raise money, it also would bring additional expenses. McGinley estimates that the company would pay about $150 million in mall rents if it goes through with the plan. It’s one additional burden on a company that’s burning over $1.5 billion in free cash flow,” he said. “This places Sears as a retailer in a more precarious predicament.”"
    They've sold a number of the best locations already, including the most profitable in the chain to General Growth. (http://online.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052702303643304579109023202738550)
    "Investors have speculated ever since that part of the attraction for Mr. Lampert was the underlying value of Sears's real estate. Yet, only a quarter of Sears mall stores are in the best centers, with the rest in average and even subpar malls, according to Green Street Advisors, a real estate research firm."
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-07/sears-considers-sale-and-leaseback-deal-to-strengthen-finances.html
    "Not all of Sears’s space is in prime locations, though. About 27 percent of the company’s square footage lies in what CoStar Portfolio Strategy calls “weak local trade area demographics.” That means households in the surrounding neighborhood aren’t big spenders.
    An additional 23 percent of Sears’s space is in “questionable” locations, with somewhat better buying power, according to Suzanne Mulvee, CoStar’s director of research in Boston."
    If they are leasing back the stores, it's effectively providing a liquidity boost in the near-term. Why are they not just getting rid of this valuable real estate outright? You have this case that Simon Properties has X amount of space and Sears also has a huge amount of retail space, but that doesn't mean that the quality of the real estate is at all similar.
    There's value there, but I think the relative silence in terms of people interested in buying this space from Sears over the years speaks volumes as to the value of it.
    There's a ton of net lease REITs in existence. No one wanted to take this on? I do think it will be interesting to see the reaction to the Sears REIT from the standpoint of showing what the market thinks of the value. If some other REIT took this on, that's one thing, but this will be a purely Sears REIT and will be judged as such when it starts trading.
    Meanwhile, you effectively play a game of Jenga with the core business, taking out parts and pieces and weakening what's left of the core. All of this discussion about Sears creating a member-centric retail operation is incredibly unrealistic from the standpoint of, you have a CEO who has neglected the retail operations for years and suddenly he goes, "Lets be Costco, only without the membership fees or value proposition." I've said previously, either Lampert is not being honest (this was never about a turnaround of the retail, and Berkowitz has said as much in an interview) or he really does think a turnaround of the business is possible and in that case, I think that's almost laughable.
    Meanwhile, he's dragged out his time wrecking value at Sears to what, almost a decade now? He has a legacy as a skilled and intelligent investor. He's been a complete disaster as a retailer and as an investor, he's attempted to turn Sears - still a very large company - into his own personal financial Frankenstein experiment. Take a classic American brand and add the worst aspects of financial engineering, take nearly a decade and wind up with enormous losses and a more irrelevant brand than ever. Just take the thing private already.
    We should also add here that Eddie Lampert has his own hedge fund. ESL Investments. SHLD is over 46% of the funds portfolio.
    http://www.insidermonkey.com/hedge-fund/esl+investments/14
    How much in the way of redemptions has Lampert seen due to Sears? Probably lots.
    http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2013/12/05/investors-pull-back-from-lamperts-fund-2/?_r=0
  • Small-Cap Stocks’ Big Stumble
    FYI: (Click On Article Title At Top Of Google Search)
    After a huge 2013, shares of small companies come back to earth, and so have mutual funds that specialize in them. How Buffalo Small Cap and Invesco Small Cap Growth have fared.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.google.com/search?newwindow=1&site=&source=hp&q=small+cap+stocks+barron's&oq=small+cap+stocks+barron's&gs_l=hp.3...1283.13667.0.14024.25.25.0.0.0.0.154.1669.23j2.25.0.ehm_nts...0...1.1.58.hp..1.24.1606.4_UOe4S1B-c
  • Fund Manager Focus: Jeffery Elswick, Manager, Frost Total Return Bond Fund
    FYI: Frost Total Return Bond fund’s manager, former Navy cryptologist Jeffery Elswick, discusses strategy and choices with Barron’s.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://online.barrons.com/articles/cracking-the-code-of-fixed-income-investing-1415436200#printMode
    M* Snapshot Of FATRX: http://quotes.morningstar.com/fund/f?t=FATRX&region=usa&culture=en-US
    Lipper Snapshot Of FATRX: http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/fatrx
    FATRX Is Ranked #1 In The (STB) Fund Category By U. S. News & World Report:
    http://money.usnews.com/funds/mutual-funds/short-term-bond/frost-total-return-bond-fund/fatrx
  • Fairholme and Sears Update
    FAAFX up 6.6% today.

    c

    Don't see other winners sufficient to propel the fund to a 6.58%, unless the weighting in SHLD is a lot higher than the stated 8.48%
    My guess is that the weighting in SHLD could be much higher than stated.
    ++++++++++++++
    Berkowitz was buying Sears over the last couple of weeks and that is probably not reflected - that may have contributed.
    ++++++++++++++++++++++
    I did a rough calculation:
    14,212,673 : number of Sears shares in FAIRX
    880,900 : number of Sears shares in FAAFX
    15,093,573 : total Sears shares FAIRX and FAAFX combined
    992,400 : new Sears shares purchased in October (added up all the purchases in Scott's post, subtracted the shares sold)
    He increased his Sears position by 6.58% total shares. We don't know how they were distributed into FAIRX vs. FAAFX vs. any other location. I believe he also has a hedge fund.
  • Harvard vs. Yale: Which Is The Best Investor ?
    Sorry they Both stink! 1.7% for Harvard and 3.3% for Yale, and you want me to tell you which University has the best endowment fund investors ? Even the other Universities got at least Double those returns. Maybe they could call Bogle, or my wife, either would double their returns...
    7.1; 6.8; 5.0; 5.1; 4.9. Those are the distribution %ages Yale took from its endowment between FY2009 and FY2013. While still returning 3.3 total%.
    But hey, if you or your wife could do better, Yale is hiring.
  • Fairholme and Sears Update
    @Maurice.
    Maybe it is time to sell.
    What other money managers do you think will make more money for retail investors than Bruce Berkowitz, over say 3-5 year period?
    I'm almost afraid to ask... =).
  • Fairholme and Sears Update
    FAAFX up 6.6% today.

    c

    @Charles, I wonder if the FAAFX portfolio holdings or weightings have changed?
    I sketched out the math and can't see how it went up 6.58% today.
    Should have gone up 2.63% just as a result of Sears alone....and I can see an increase of to a total of roughly 3% for FAAFX, as CHK, LE, and HOFD all had nice gains.
    Don't see other winners sufficient to propel the fund to a 6.58%, unless the weighting in SHLD is a lot higher than the stated 8.48%
    My guess is that the weighting in SHLD could be much higher than stated.
    Any ideas?
    Berkowitz was buying Sears over the last couple of weeks and that is probably not reflected - that may have contributed.
  • Fairholme and Sears Update
    FAAFX up 6.6% today.

    c
    @Charles, I wonder if the FAAFX portfolio holdings or weightings have changed?
    I sketched out the math and can't see how it went up 6.58% today.
    Should have gone up 2.63% just as a result of Sears alone....and I can see an increase of to a total of roughly 3% for FAAFX, as CHK, LE, and HOFD all had nice gains.
    Don't see other winners sufficient to propel the fund to a 6.58%, unless the weighting in SHLD is a lot higher than the stated 8.48%
    My guess is that the weighting in SHLD could be much higher than stated.
    Any ideas?
  • Fairholme and Sears Update
    You might have done better with pumpkin futures. :-)
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Homer_vs._Patty_and_Selma
    "Homer vs. Patty and Selma" is the 17th episode of The Simpsons' sixth season. This episode was originally broadcast on February 26, 1995. Homer attempts to earn some money through investing, and decides to invest in Halloween pumpkins."
    Homer: "This year I invested in pumpkins. They've been going up the whole month of October and I got a feeling they're going to peak right around January. Then bang! That's when I'll cash in"
  • If You Missed The Rally, Then You Just Made The Most Classic Mistake In Investing
    Hey there Hank- My condolences on "Stuck here in a airport (4-5 hr delay) so feeling kinda "crusty"."
    Been there & done that. Totally crummy! Go to the bar, have a drink or two. Expensive at airports, but what the hell...
  • If You Missed The Rally, Then You Just Made The Most Classic Mistake In Investing
    Hi OJ - Stuck here in a airport (4-5 hr delay) so feeling kinda "crusty". Post some more funny stuff for me to read will ya please?
    As you allude, there's a universe of investing cliches - many seemingly opposed. I think that's why it's important to develop a approach that's comfortable for the individual. And yes - I distinctly recall your adding some on the 9.9% downdraft.
  • GLD or DGZ in a Traditional IRA?
    Hi Tony,
    Actually, not only can you but it's much easier than trying to own actual physical bullion. You can do that in an IRA but it's very complicated and there are easier ways to get precious metals into your IRA - both bullion and miners.
    Either of these would be trading vehicles. For longer term holding I'd go with CEF for
    bullion as it's 55/45 gold/silver . . . and they really have it on hand. If I was going to play this sucker, I'd hit junior silver miners (like rono is doing currently, TYVM!). That's where the serious leverage occurs.
    peace,
    rono
  • Harvard vs. Yale: Which Is The Best Investor ?
    Your kidding right? My wife could beat these returns! with no help from me and her own picks from 5 min.looking over Funds!
    Their Real Record during the best (5 yr) market in the last century:
    Harvard’s endowment posted annual average gains of 1.7 percent in the five years ended June 30, 2013, according to data compiled by Charles Skorina & Co. That compares with annual returns of 6.8 percent at Columbia University, 5.4 percent at University of Pennsylvania and 3.3 percent at Yale University.
    7/1/2008 to 6/30/2013 was hardly the "best five year market" in the last century. The investment in VTSMX from 7/1/2008 - 6/30/2013 turned $10,000 into $14,254.52, an annual return of 7.3%, well below the average yearly return of 11.5% for the S&P 500 from 1928-2013.
    That period did, however, coincide with the worst sustained market downturn in over 70 years. and turned $10,000 into $5381.58 on 3/6/2009. (The same investment in VWELX turned $10,000 into an almost identical $14,169.26, an annual return of 7.1%, and only lost 30.5% on 3/6/09.)
    Harvard lost ~27% in the downturn. Yale lost 24.6%. As Scott pointed out, endowments that size do not act like individual's portfolios and shouldn't be judged the same way. At the very least, one has to consider that money is constantly being distributed to fund massive research institutions. That David Swenson somehow returned slightly less than the market over the period, with less volatility than the most recognizable 60/40 portfolio in the world, is remarkable.
  • Fairholme and Sears Update
    Not so sure that Craftsman tools are still made here, Ted. Seems to me that I've heard or read otherwise. But they sure as hell were made well, years ago. I've still got quite a few that I bought over 50 years ago.
  • Fairholme and Sears Update
    @scott Why Sears will survive ! Craftman Tools, Made In America, and music to my ears.
    Regards,
    Ted
  • If You Missed The Rally, Then You Just Made The Most Classic Mistake In Investing
    Nice going Ol Skeet--- I do recall some discussion about falling knives a few weeks back. Don't know if it was related to the near 10% drop in the S&P. Might have been.
    But it might have had more to do with my decision to buy into the NR/commodity areas when they were falling. Actually, despite the hysterical media coverage, the two funds (QRAAX & PRNEX) have held up pretty well over the past 3 or 4 weeks since I bought in - although both are showing big losses YTD. PRNEX was actually up .90% yesterday - far better than anything else that I own or track. I view both as long term hedges against a frothy equity market. So if the 2 funds do reasonably well over the next 3-5 years, I don't particularly care about shorter term performance.
    Nice bounce for gold today. Up $28 last check. Energy sector showing strength in recent days - especially nat gas and heating oil due to some pretty extreme weather. Recall seeing 37 and snow flurries in Atlanta few days back.
    Apologies to Ol Skeet. My spellchecker preferred Ol Skirt - I've now corrected it. :)