stillers

"This morning brought the harsh reality of bad economic news and futures are DOWN ~1%-2%. The projected trading range that I am actively trading, now on both the top and bottom of the range, appears to be taking form."

The SP500 closed up 0.15%.
Historical data are just that, they can't predict what's next because markets are different.

>> a large plurality voted him into office
huh ?

His vote count did not quite get him to a majority of the total votes cast. He came in just a hair under 50%.

Your 'hair' was 1.142M voters. The number needed plus one to reach majority. About the number of registered voters in Arkansas, say.

Thank you for the information. We have few small I-bond holding maturing in 2026. Unsure if we will continue to add more I-bonds due to the 5-years holding period. Working with Treasury Direct is not the easiest.

GDP news today was not a surprise due to the tariffs. Yet the trade advisor, Peter Navarro spun the math from a 0.3% loss to a 3.0% gain.
The odd of recession is over 50% and the full tariffs impact has yet all play out. Question is, what are you plan going forward?

You wonder why Musk called Navarro “dumber than a sack of brick”. You look at Navarro’s tariff equation and you have to ask does he know his basic math. I thought getting doctorate economics degrees from major universities requires basic algebra.
The odd of recession is over 50% and the full tariffs impact has yet all play out. Question is, what are you plan going forward?

They would need to reduce the expense ratio to be of interest. FOF which is similar has a base expense ratio of .95 plus expenses of the underlying funds. RNCIX is 1.58% base expense ratio. Common folks and be competitive.

@hank. No, I believe the note is trying to say the distributor is independent of the issuer.
Here is link to David's profile from 2015, looks like:
https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/2015/11/rivernorth-core-opportunity-rncoxrncix-november-2015/
And here is link to Dashboard of Profiled Funds.

US Savings I-Bonds Rate, 5/1/25 – 10/31/25
Total 3.98%% (vs previous 3.11%)
Fixed rate is 1.10%, the semiannual inflation is 1.43%.
https://www.treasurydirect.gov/savings-bonds/i-bonds/
Notes:
1. There is a 3-mo interest penalty for selling in yrs 1-5.
2. Interest accrues monthly on the 1st of the month but is added to the principal only at 6-mo intervals from the purchase date. So, simple interest applies from the month of purchase up to 6 months, & then is compounded (i.e. added to the principal) at 6-monthly intervals.
3. Buy late in the month, or sell early in the month, to get full month interest.

As expected, the flailing Toddler in Tweet is still blaming bad economic data happening during his regime on Biden...
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/30/trump-gdp-tariffs-biden-overhang.html

CAT has had a nice pop since @masterd posted. Up this morning in the eye of the storm.
Edit: Just a late morning update / CAT has gone slightly negative for the day following a report in the WSJ:
Quoting the WSJ directly: ”Caterpillar [CAT -0.64% expects to face $250 million to $350 million in additional costs this quarter from the global tariff war launched by the Trump administration. The machinery maker said Wednesday that the forecast accounts for short-term actions it has already taken to mitigate the incoming cost storm. Caterpillar is looking at longer-term solutions, but hoping to first get a clearer picture of how the tariff fight will shake out, executives said Wednesday on a call with analysts. ‘Many of these actions require more time to implement, are more difficult’ ”.

From Bloomberg this morning:
”The US economy contracted at the start of the year for the first time since 2022 on a monumental pre-tariffs import surge and more moderate consumer spending, a first snapshot of the ripple effects from President Donald Trump's trade policy. Inflation-adjusted gross domestic product decreased an annualized 0.3% in the first quarter, well below average growth of about 3% in the prior two years, according to the government's initial estimate published Wednesday. Net exports subtracted nearly 5 percentage points from GDP, the most on record, the Bureau of Economic Analysis report showed. The data highlight the scramble by companies to secure merchandise ahead of expansive tariffs.”
Also - Listened to a Bloomberg interview with Mark Mobius, formerly of Franklin Templeton notoriety, last evening. Mostly an EM analyst. Can’t tell you what his batting average is. Says he has the money he now manages 95% in cash - waiting for a big buying opportunity. Yet, Mobious confidently predicts the S&P will finish the year much higher than it is now. Go figure!

Tested the new daily FLOW feature for several funds:
Several ETFs - they work. Great!
But OEFs were hit & miss - some runs were completed (FDGRX, QREARX), but others failed to finish.
Failed Examples - VFIAX, VFINX, VWELX, ABALX / BALFX, FCNTX.
(Notably, SP500 ETFs IVV, SPY, VOO worked)
Tried both Chrome & Edge. Before each run, I used RESET in the 2nd Menu bar at the top.

>> a large plurality voted him into office
huh ?

His vote count did not quite get him to a majority of the total votes cast. He came in just a hair under 50%.

Fund Allocations (Cumulative), 3/31/25
Notable shifts out of stock funds. The changes for OEFs + ETFs were based on a total AUM of about $39.72 trillion in the previous month, so +/- 1% change was about +/- $397.2 billion. Also note that these changes were from both fund inflows/outflows & price changes. #ICI #Funds #OEFs #ETFs
OEFs & ETFs: Stocks 59.32%, Hybrids 4.24%, Bonds 18.32%, M-Mkt 18.11%
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1965/thread

"Through April 28, the S&P 500 was down 7.8% since Trump’s inauguration.
April 29 will be the 100th day of Trump’s presidency.
The last time the stock market performed this poorly was under Nixon in 1973
when the S&P 500 tumbled nearly 10% in his first 100 days."
"History indicates that investors should expect an overall gain in stocks for the rest of Trump’s term.
But market returns have been lower when stocks were down in a president’s first 100 days
than when stocks were up in the first few months."
"Going back to 1949, during the seven times that markets were down in a president’s first 100 days,
the average total return during their four-year term was 20.6%.
When markets were up in the first 100 days, the total return averaged 53%."
Here's a link for those who don't have a Barron's subscription.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/savingandinvesting/trump-s-first-100-days-were-the-worst-for-stocks-since-nixon-what-history-says-happens-next/ar-AA1DOkSF

Here's a recent M* interview of Christine Benz on the topic.
https://www.morningstar.ca/ca/news/260559/do-market-forecasts-really-matter.aspx
Well on the glass half full side, it kinda disproves one poster's incessant claims that ALL forecasts (except his) are ALWAYS wrong, ALL the time!
FWIW, we use forecasts in a manner similar to what CB suggests, to help shape LT planning assumptions. We annually look briefly at a different forecasts but look daily/weekly at a lot of different T/A's work.
We take deep dives into WHY they are making their respective T/A conclusions. (We spend far more time on T/A than forecasts.) Then like our process of selecting PMs for active funds, we look at who has worthy LT performance records and who are making similar, strong cases for their conclusions. (Note the PM hurdle is consistent S&P outperformance.)
Forecasts are more like guardrails for LT planning, while the aggregate work of T/A's we follow and trust play a large part in our investment strategy, mostly ST, but at times relatively LT as well.

I came across the following study which evaluates and ranks 68 market forecasters.
Although the study is from 2017, I believe overall results are still pertinent today.
Major finding: the majority of forecasters perform at levels not significantly different than chance,
which makes it very difficult to tell if there is any skill present.
• Across all forecasts, the accuracy is around 48%.
• Two-thirds of forecasts predict as far as only a month.
• Only one-third of forecasts predict periods over one month.
• Two-thirds of forecasters have an accuracy level below 50%.
• Only about 6% of forecasters have their accuracy values between 70% and 79%.
• The highest accuracy value is still below 80%.
https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/afca/37db6aa17f5be8e5d1ebb93c40cf52413123.pdf
SSRN paper

mkt is voting things are ok and chaos ceases 'soon enough'.
potential is valid for trump to realize more trade bribes are not arriving, gets bored, and tariffs mostly normalize.
apollo data show ~95% negative indicators, and a few point things will take longer to 'fix'.
https://www.apolloacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/042625-ConsumerandFirms_v2.pdf
(broken link corrected)