Invest With An Edge Weekly ... Stocks At New Highs, Or Not Wednesday, May 28, 2014
Editor's Corner
Stocks At New Highs, Or Not
Ron Rowland
There are numerous market benchmarks, and depending on which one you follow, the market may or may not be at a new high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is probably the most widely “known” stock index in the world, but it didn’t close at a new high yesterday, although it was less than 40 points away from doing so. Given that 100-point swings are common for this index, and its actual high occurred just two weeks ago, it is acceptable to say the Dow is trading at all-time highs.
The S&P 500 is the most widely “tracked” index in the world. It finished Friday, yesterday, and today at all-time closing highs. Everyone loves round numbers, and the S&P’s flirtation with the 1900 level the past couple of months became reality last Friday. Both the S&P and the Dow recovered their financial crisis bear market losses in early 2013. Therefore, being in new high territory is not a recent event for these two indexes but has been the status quo for more than a year.
Other popular indexes are unable to make similar claims. The Russell 2000 Index of small cap stocks was hitting new highs for most of 2013 and into the first quarter of 2014. It then experienced a 9% correction, and its recent upswing still leaves it more than 5% shy of a new record-high. The plunge taken by the Nasdaq Composite Index early this century remains the stuff of legend. It has been more than 14 years since the Nasdaq has registered a new high, and it needs another 19% gain in order to erase its deficit.
U.S. stocks account for only 48% of worldwide equity capitalization, making the inclusion of international indexes mandatory to this discussion. The most popular benchmark of foreign stock prices is the Morgan Stanley Capital International Europe, Australasia, and Far East (“MSCI EAFE”) Index. It established an all-time high nearly seven years ago and needs another 22% advance to recover from the financial crisis. If you add in the seven years of dividends, the gap is almost closed. The lifetime high for the MSCI Emerging Markets Index coincided with the EAFE Index back in October 2007. From a percentage perspective, emerging market stocks need to gain about 29% before they are again at new highs.
Depending on your benchmark, possibilities range from stocks trading at new highs for more than a year to needing gains of another 29% before reaching a new high. The next time your favorite news outlet declares the stock market closed at a new high, be sure you know which index they used for the declaration and understand not all markets are able to make the same claim.
Sectors
All sector categories but one gained momentum since our last update. Real Estate maintains its top ranking for a second week with Energy duplicating the feat for second place. Technology was the big winner, jumping five places to land in third. Internet stocks and small cap semiconductor firms were the driving forces behind Technology’s surge. Telecom was the lone category failing to gain momentum, although it managed to hold its relative strength slide to just one slot. Materials held steady in 5th while Consumer Staples slipped two spots to 6th. Industrials, Health Care, and Utilities jockeyed positions, with Industrials now leading the trio. Financials and Consumer Discretionary were the only two sectors in the red a week ago. Today, they join the others on the positive side of the ledger.
Styles
The style categories were looking grim a week ago with more red ink (or pixels) than green. Micro Cap was registering negative momentum with three times the magnitude of Large Cap Value’s positive strength. This week, there is an across the board improvement, most notably among the weakest categories. Mega Cap moved up from second and wrestled the top spot away from Large Cap Value. The next four categories are in a dead-heat, with Large Cap Value, Mid Cap Value, Large Cap Blend, and Large Cap Growth all staking a claim on second place. The bottom six categories kept their same relative positions, although their momentum scores improved substantially. Small Cap Value managed to flip back to the positive side, and Small Cap Blend is on the verge of doing the same. Small Cap Growth and Micro Cap have been the two weakest styles and in the red for eight continuous weeks, but if they can hold on to their recent gains they could soon be in the green.
Global
The eight-week reign of Latin America came to an end this week with Emerging Markets ascending to the throne. The U.K. improved one position as Latin America’s momentum decline pushed it down to third. Canada and Pacific ex-Japan, two natural resource rich categories, held their relative positions. World Equity and EAFE swapped places, as did the U.S. and Europe. China gained strength, which counteracted the weakness of Latin America and helped Emerging Markets move to the top. Last week we discussed the disappointing performance of Japanese stocks in 2014. Apparently, Japan took our input as constructive criticism and put together four consecutive days of gains. In the process, it moved to positive momentum and erased its distinction of being the one category that has been seeing only red since January.
Note:
The charts above depict both the relative strength and absolute strength of various market sectors, styles, and geographic locations on an intermediate-term basis. Each grouping is sorted (top to bottom) by relative strength. The magnitude of the displayed RSM value is a measure of absolute strength, which is our proprietary method of measuring and reporting the intermediate-term strength as an annualized value.
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“We’re on this slow glide higher. Valuations aren’t being stretched, corporate news has been decent, and the economy slowly improving. I don’t mind buying here."
Chris Gaffney, Senior Market Strategist, EverBank Wealth Management, 5/27/14
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Emerging Market Rally In Perspective
A brilliant fund that never rises
Treasurys Rally, Sending 10-Year Yield To 2014 Low FYI: Copy & Paste 5/28/14: Cynthia Lin: WSJ
Regards,
Ted
A roaring rally in the prices of U.S. and European government bonds sent yields on Treasurys and other ultrasafe debt to 2014 lows, underscoring continued investor uncertainty over the pace of global economic growth.
In late afternoon trading, the 10-year U.S. Treasury note was up 21/32 in price to yield 2.443%, according to Tradeweb. The yield sank as far as 2.432%, its lowest level since June 2013. Bond yields fall when prices rise.
Demand was equally strong across the Atlantic, amid expectations that the European Central Bank could loosen monetary policy as soon as next week. The yield on 10-year German bunds fell 0.05 percentage point to 1.285%, the lowest since May 2013. The yield on 10-year U.K. gilts fell 0.09 percentage point to 2.549%.
Traders said the rally was driven by a surprise uptick in Germany's unemployment as well as typical month-end buying by fund managers to better align their portfolios with underlying indexes. A Treasury price rally in 2014 that has brought the 10-year yield down from 3% at the end of 2013 has left many fund managers holding smaller positions in U.S. debt than market benchmarks.
"The buying [in U.S. Treasurys] is being driven by relative value, rather than a need for yield," said Jake Lowery, portfolio manager at Voya Investment Management. "Global fixed income looks relatively expensive" compared with U.S. Treasurys.
Mr. Lowery points to the yield difference between U.S. and German 10-year debt. The U.S. offers about 1.15 percentage point in extra yield versus Germany, a historically large premium.
The wave of bond buying is the latest chapter in a yearlong government-bond rally that has surprised many investors and unexpectedly made safe debt one of the strongest-performing asset classes in financial markets.
Wednesday's rally wasn't limited to debt perceived as safest by investors. Yields on bonds issued by economically weaker European nations such as Spain, Italy and Portugal also declined. Spain's 10-year yield fell as far as 2.793%, a record low.
"We've had a rally in some other sovereign debt markets, making Treasurys look cheaper," said Gary Pollack, head of fixed-income trading at Deutsche Bank's private wealth-management u
Wednesday's Treasury gains add to Tuesday's rally in the face of upbeat U.S. economic data and fresh supply hitting the market. The fact that yields hover around the year's lows while U.S. economic data has been improving and growth is widely expected to accelerate has many bond analysts scratching their heads.
"We, who are usually some of the most bullish in the herd, are having a hard time reconciling generally OK data" with falling yields, said David Ader, government bond strategist at CRT Capital Group.
Many analysts point to the heavily skewed net trading position at the start of the year, with many investors betting Treasury prices would fall as the economic recovery picked up pace. Those bets were hit by a U.S. slowdown last quarter, causing many to unwind the so-called shorts.
"The market in general has been caught off guard by the strength in Treasurys this year," Mr. Pollack said, adding that he doesn't see yields sinking much further from here. Like many others, Mr. Pollack sees the 10-year yield ending the year around 3% as U.S. growth accelerates into year-end.
With many sellers crowded around the 2.42% mark on the 10-year note, traders don't see the yield falling significantly past that point without a new round of soft data.
J.P. Morgan's weekly Treasury client survey showed short positions ramping back up to 35% from 24% last week. Neutral positions fell from 66% to 48%, reflecting the fewest fence-sitters since October 2010.
A five-year Treasury auction Wednesday attracted mediocre demand, offering buyers the lowest yield on that maturity in six months. That followed a weak turnout at Tuesday's two-year note sale.
The soft auctions show how there are limits to the seemingly insatiable demand for U.S. Treasurys. While investors question the outlook on global growth, data at home have been improving, which raises worries among bond investors about the Federal Reserve increasing rates.
Fed officials, including Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart overnight, have assured that rates will remain low for some time to come to support the economy. But should growth accelerate and inflation perk up, the rally in bonds now only sets up risks for a bigger selloff later on.
Rate-increase expectations for now are centered around mid-to-late 2015.
Help requested: SC/MC value funds Market Capitalization Size % of Portfolio Benchmark Category Avg
Giant 0.39 0.26 4.22
Large
5.19 28.
56 14.
53
Medium 48.38 6
5.48
57.93
Small 32.62
5.66 23.16
Micro 13.41 0.04 0.16
@ron, OP seems to be looking for value funds.
I don't know if there is an extended market value index fund. That would fit the bill IF the goal of the OP is pure and full market exposure with no downside protection. Or a combination of mid cap value and small cap value index funds if which there are plenty.
But since, the original question is under-specified (need a Cabernet/Merlot) in requirement, it allows for creative interpretations to fit one's own pet fund. :-)
Is Your Large-Cap Fund A Closet Indexer ? This is so true in large cap domestic and international stock funds. Folks often think active share means how much turnover a fund has. But it really has to do with how different the fund's holdings are from its benchmark. Typically of M* to not make the information available except to subscribers of its most expensive software. But also understand that the fund's benchmark (as stated in the prospectus and/or annual report) might be different than what M* uses. Using active share statistics to compare similar funds is one thing. But keep in mind that some great funds are not style-box driven. OSTFX, for example, uses the S&P 500 benchmark, but it only has about 40 holdings, and more than 50% are in mid-and-small cap stocks. Average market cap, in this case, does not help much. Same for GSRLX, which has only 50 holdings, but 20% is in MLPs, and about 15% is in foreign stocks. So it's pretty clear this fund's active share number is very high compared to the Russell 1000 Growth, but the fund is definitely not even remotely similar to that index.
There are, however, any number of large cap funds that get a lot of cash flow but provide very little benefit, often none at all, over an index fund. It seems clear to us that smaller funds with concentrated portfolios, usually style-box agnostic, are often the best options for investors wanting real active management.
The Slowskys Ever since 4:4
5 AM CST, I've struggled to link article to the MFO Discussion board.
Regards,
Ted
