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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Gross Fund Hurt By Oil’s Plunge Amid Bets on Energy Bonds
    FYI: The plunge in oil prices has claimed another prominent victim.
    Bill Gross’s $1.46 billion Janus Global Unconstrained Bond Fund trailed its benchmark in the fourth quarter of last year primarily because it had plowed about five percent of net assets into debt issued by U.S., Russian and Brazilian energy companies, according to a quarterly overview published on the Denver-based firm’s website. Those bonds and emerging market sovereign debt that Gross agreed to insure were all hit by the 42 percent collapse in crude prices during the period.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-23/gross-fund-hurt-by-oil-s-plunge-amid-bets-on-energy-bonds
  • Art Cashin: "Chances 50/50 No Rate Hike This Year"
    FYI: I stated there would be no rate hike this year a couple of week's ago, and after today's testimony, I'm even more convinced.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000356926
  • Chuck Jaffe's Money Life Show; Guest: Skip Aylesworth, Manager, Hennessey Gas Utilities Index Fund
    Mr Alyesworth mentioned that his index fund (GASFX) is based on NG companies membership in the AGA (American Gas Association). Seems qualifying for this index has a bit to do with your membership dues and lobby efforts. Utilities remain a piece on the monopoly game board. I'm an investor in utilities because I am a user of utilities and much like healthcare I see myself needing their services.
    Anyway, Here's the AGA's playbook for 2015:
    playbook.aga.org/mobile/index.html
    This might be better described as a "managed utility/energy index fund". Once managed by FBR...now part of Hennessey's fund GASFX has had long history of being a "smooth operator" especially with all the volatility in the energy markets. VPU is a true utility index fund (100% Utility)...GASFX blends utilities (61%) with energy (38%) and is more concentrated than VPU. GASFX is also 15 % outside the US. Here are the two funds over the last 10 years:
    image
    Here's GASFX 10 yr performance in comparison to oil (USO), Coal (KOL), Natural Gas (UNG), and Energy (XLE):
    image
  • Top Performing Global Stock Funds: 1-20 Years
    SGENX is wonderful, but it lost two of its top managers, Jean-Marie Eveillard (in 2009) and Abhay Deshpande (in the end of 2014). And it has 51 billion AUM.
  • Top Performing Global Stock Funds: 1-20 Years
    Thanks Ted!
    The long term performance and management of volatility make SGENX and MDLOX hard to beat.
    A fund that didn't make Kiplinger list, but has a long track record of out performing the index and a great ER is VHGEX.
    Here's the 20 year picture my mentioned funds (gotta love SGENX and MDLOX, especially if you can buy them load waived):
    Notice how SGENX performed during the market stress of 2007-09:
    image
  • A Primer for Mutual Fund Investing
    Hi, bee ... Indeed a good find.
    It seems I catch a lot of heat, at times, for my style of investing.
    What should be added though, and what a not of lot is written on, is when is the best time to buy? My thinking is when good long term holding type assets are out of favor. Right now, to me, energy seems to be the most out of favor and most undervalued within the S&P 500 Index.
    So, I am of the current posture to do a little buying, at this time, in funds that also have a good presence in the energy sector.
    Old_Skeet
    Keep stoking the stove...I hope you realize we all learn from each other here. Thanks for your continual sharing. I'm watching the price of oil (USO) as the leading indicator for energy (XLE) as commented in the linked thread below:
    mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/19214/recent-asset-class-performance-using-key-etfs#latest
  • A Primer for Mutual Fund Investing
    Hi, bee ... Indeed a good find.
    It seems I catch a lot of heat, at times, for my style of investing.
    What should be added though, and what a not of lot is written on, is when is the best time to buy? My thinking is when good long term holding type assets are out of favor. Right now, to me, energy seems to be the most out of favor and most undervalued within the S&P 500 Index.
    So, I am of the current posture to do a little buying, at this time, in funds that also have a good presence in the energy sector.
    Old_Skeet
  • YouTube Videos
    @Chip: Hi Chip- can you please clarify the "click the play button twice" statement? Do you click it once, then get a second screen with all of the player controls and so forth, and then click that play button, or do you mean that literally, you click the original "one and only" play button twice?
    By the way- when I right-click on the "first" video screen there is no player info; if I press the "Play" button the second video window with the player controls appears, and if I right-click on that window the indication is made that HTML5 will be used. If I then press the "Play" button again, the error message occurs; if I click on the video title in the upper left corner a new browser tab opens, goes to youtube.com/watch and the video plays.
  • Real Estate Funds and Turnover
    I recieved an email back from American Century. In short, the reason given for the high turnover was that 1: this is a new fund (3 years), 2: the assets are only $73million, and 3: the combination of those two facts lends to high turnover as the fund is trying to get on the advisors radars.
    I would figure a lot of buying is involved but is that construed as turnover? I thought turnover was a buy and sell step. The email gave me half an answer which is disappointing. I still plan to hold the fund as it has done very well. It has 5 stars from the big M.
    I suspect they didn't want to get too detailed in their explanation so I could understand better.
  • YouTube Videos
    As I tried to suggest above (evidently unsuccessfully) clicking on the "GO" button on the first embedded video window brings up a second window which, when the "GO" button is pressed again, apparently attempts to invoke flash technology. If your browser does not support flash, game over.
    When that second window appears, instead of clicking on the "Go" button, click on the video title which appears in the upper left-hand corner. That should open a new tab or window for you, depending upon your browser settings, and allow the video to be viewed there, presumably using HTML5.
    A lot of guesswork on this, but it's the best that I can come up with at this point.
  • YouTube Videos
    @Maurice: Did you read John Chisum message about YouTube switching to HTML5.
    Regards,
    Ted
  • Top Performing Hybrid Funds: 1-20 Years
    Most of these funds are "set and forget."
    I have admired BRUFX for many years. Two things that make Bruce a bit different than other Fund companies is that the Bruce Fund has a "mail only" transaction dynamic and you are always fully invested in the fund... no "cash - like" position.
    When shopping for an H.S.A. (health saving acct) custodian last year I chose the Bruce Fund. I will be making yearly contribution to my H.S.A. at Bruce for the next ten years until age 65. Hopefully this fund continues to shine as my bulb dims.
    I like PRWCX a lot and it is my largest holding in my TRP account...another fund that I "set and forget."
    For young investors, own one of these funds on Ted's linked list as a first investment. For retirees, own one of these funds in each of your accounts as one of your last investments.
  • Reviewing Asia Fund opportunities
    PRASX. Ahn Lu is back from a leave-of-absence. That is the Asia fund I own.
    YTD
    +4.17
    1 MONTH
    +2.23
    1 YEAR
    +14.64
    3 years
    +6.53
    5 years
    +8.92
    10 years
    +12.25
    Ranks in terms of percentile for each period: 53, 65, 23,59, 22, 27.
  • Gundlach-SPDR Bond ETF launches tomorrow (TOTL)
    Below is the link to the launch of the Gundlach-SPDR Total Return Tactical ETF. The fund charges 55 basis points.
    http://www.etf.com/sections/features-and-news/gundlach-spdr-bond-etf-launch-feb-24
    Has anyone ever bought an ETF on its first day of trading? I'm interested in this new ETF but I'm concerned the demand may trump supply and create a temporary premium on the first few trading days. Any thoughts or recommendations?
    Thanks.
    Mike_E
  • Reviewing Asia Fund opportunities
    I currently own MSMLX, MAPIX and MACSX
    I am considering FPBFX and FPA
    Any comments and any other ideas would be appreciated.
    prinx
    Symbol Fund Name 1 Wk 13 Wk YTD 1 Yr 3 Yr (Annualized) 5 Yr (Annualized) 10 Yr (Annualized)
    MSMLX Matthews Asia:SmCo;Inv 0.51% 0.01% 0.70% 11.36% 9.16% 10.94% --
    MAPIX Matthews Asia:Div;Inv 1.45% 3.66% 5.70% 8.99% 9.40% 9.18% --
    MACSX Matthews Asia:G&I;Inv 0.55% -0.36% 2.17% 3.08% 7.49% 7.69% 8.94%
    FPBFX Fidelity Pacific Basin 2.27% 3.88% 5.37% 9.31% 13.14% 12.39% 9.09%
    FPA Frst Tr ADex:AsiaPacexJp 1.81% 5.97% 7.05% 11.68% 8.03% -- --
  • Recent Asset Class Performance Using Key ETFs
    Interesting that Oil (USO) is off (-8% YTD with a lot of volatility), yet Energy (XLE) up 1.74%.
    image
    Since the 2008 low for both ETFs, XLE has out performed USO by a 4:1 margin:
    image
    If USO can hold steady... XLE could out perform from here:
  • Recent Asset Class Performance Using Key ETFs
    FYI: As we head into the new trading week, below is a look at the recent performance of various asset classes using US-traded ETFs. As shown, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is leading the way higher here in the US with a year-to-date gain of 5%. Growth is outperforming value by a good margin as well.
    In terms of sectors, Financials and Utilities are the only two that are down on the year, while Materials, Health Care, Telecom and Consumer Discretionary are up the most.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2015/2/20/recent-asset-class-performance-using-key-etfs.html?printerFriendly=true
  • Nonqualified Dividends from bond mutual funds
    You have the details correct. Let me try to describe this from the conceptual perspective (which may or may not help - different people understand things in different ways).
    Think about "regular" companies (like corporations). If you own shares of a company, you get dividends. Not interest - that's for the bond holders.
    Mutual funds are just companies ("regulated investment companies" - RICs). You own shares of a fund, you get dividends. Even MMFs are mutual funds, and they pay dividends.
    Under the 2003 Tax Act, dividends from domestic (and some foreign) corporations are to be treated as "qualified" dividends - taxed at a lower rate (and reported in box 1b on your 1099-DIV). It doesn't matter whether the corporation makes the money it distributes from selling widgets or from receiving interest on bonds it holds. The rationale given was that corporations are already paying taxes on their earnings, so investors shouldn't have to pay full freight a second time when they receive those earnings as dividends.
    But RICs are not corporations (and they don't pay corporate income taxes). For RICs, the Act says that only fund dividends that represent qualified dividends from the portfolio's corporate holdings are qualified (reported in box 1b). Since this income comes from corporations that have paid corporate taxes on it already, it makes sense to treat these dividends as qualified, even though they get to you via a mutual fund.
    Bond interest isn't corporate dividends (and no corporate taxes have been paid on this income). So when a fund distributes this to you as a dividend, it's not qualified. For that matter, capital gains generated by the fund are not qualified corporate dividends either.
    But there's an older special rule for capital gain dividends (IRC Section (b)(3)(B)) . It says that long term gains are to be reported in box 2, and taxed as capital gains. That makes sense as well, since the fund is acting as your "proxy" - buying and selling securities for you.
    What doesn't make a whole lot of sense, but has been in the rules "forever" is that short term gains generated by the fund get no special treatment. So they get reported as ordinary dividends (box 1a), and since they don't represent dividends from underlying stock, they don't get the special "qualified" treatment. Since they don't show up as short term gains on your 1099, you can't write off short term losses against them.
    The tax laws are complex, and there are a lot of competing interests embedded. But they can make a certain amount of sense - or perhaps one just needs a warped mind to appreciate them :-)
  • The Paradox Of Choice: Can You Have Too Many Investment Options?
    Hi bee,
    It is true four are actively managed AGTHX, BWLAX, HWAAX & SPECX while two are index type funds IACLX (S&P 100 Equal Weight) & VADAX (S&P 500 Equal Weight). With this there indeed could be some drift. Using Xray does indeed help to follow the funds within the sleeve and after a while one begins to recognize an investment rhythm in relation to the funds positioning with the market.
    For example, looking back to my Xray reports ending around December the Growth Area within the portfolio held close to 13% in energy. Today about half that. So where did repositioning flow to? I find it interesting to follow my portfolio and study how fund mangers are moving money from one sector to another with happenings within the markets, etc. And, market movement can be detected by monitoring index funds where as actively manage fund positioning can be followed as well.
    I hope this somewhat answers your question.
    Old_Skeet