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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Unconstrained Bond Funds Are Constraining Investors
    The fund that I bought several months ago and consider an "unconstrained" bond fund is EVBAX - Kathleen Gaffney's fund. It's done gangbusters since it opened.
    I wanted to get into Kathleen Gaffney's fund.
    But it's got the "Dreaded Load". A load of 4.75%
    That kept me away. Also I prefer an expense ratio lower than .95% for a bond fund.
  • questions for the Morningstar interviews
    Ask all these guys the same question. How much of THEIR fund would they have in a an asset allocation................ How much do THEY have in their fund relative to their net worth? Thanks.
    I think that's a VERY important question that all fund managers should have to report. Currently they report within a range. For example, they report that they have between $500K and $1 million in their fund, or less than $100K, or whatever ranges they have to report.
    They need to change the reporting requirements so they are more meaningful. If a stock mutual fund manager has 1 Million in his fund, but has $50 million in investment assets, that's not what I call "skin in the game." It's only 2% of his investments.......
    I like what Longleaf Partners Funds does. They do not allow employees to have outside investments. So the fund managers have ALL their investment dollars in the funds.
    It's what Warren Buffett does with Berkshire Hathaway. It's what Bruce Berkowitz does with the Fairholme Funds. It should be the standard. If the fund manager doesn't have a large percentage of his net worth in his fund.........well, then he shouldn't be running the fund.
    Just my opinion
  • questions for the Morningstar interviews
    Ask all these guys the same question. How much of THEIR fund would they have in a an asset allocation for at 40-50yo or 70yo with a 60/40 stock bond AA. Ask how much is to much? How much do THEY have in their fund relative to their net worth? Thanks.
  • questions for the Morningstar interviews
    Love the Never Never Index, but Open Table got bought by Priceline, which I totally don't understand. To me, Open Table just feels like someone else could come along and invade that space. Even the website is kind of....blah. It's not slick or interesting.
    Thanks David.
    For the Arbitrage Fund crew.....don't know how you would ask this....but the fund seems to be 'dead in the water' with respect to performance. Not a happy shareholder. Their 2013 total return: 0.85%. 2012 return: 0.27%. No complaints about 2011. 2010: 1.44%. Not focusing on the category, but on an absolute return basis, can't they do better?
    I wouldn't expect anything more than low-to-mid single digit returns from Merger Arb funds. May be worse lately from the standpoint of you have traditionally the idea of shorting the company buying and buying the company being bought. In this market, everything is going up. So, while you may get some minor gains from the company being bought, you're losing if the company doing the buying that you're short goes up anyways.
    Again though, not going to be something that does more than a single or - in a really good year - a double.
  • questions for the Morningstar interviews
    Agree with Dave. I didn't realize RP does commentary; haven't found any on the site.
    One amusing bit from the semi-annual report, which is basically the 3-31-14 listing of holdings: RSIIX-RSIVX lists 5.2% in energy, among which is Checkers Drive-In Restaurants. What of the "burgers, fries, cola, wings, fish, hot dogs, the Big Chicken and more," I wonder, packs the most energy?
  • The Closing Bell: S&P 500 Closes At 20th Record This Year
    FYI: Stocks rose, with the S&P 500 on track to close at a fresh record, after Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen offered an upbeat assessment of the U.S. economy
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://online.wsj.com/articles/u-s-stock-futures-pause-ahead-of-fed-decision-1403093789#printMode
    Markets At A Glance: http://markets.wsj.com/us
  • MDY and IJH etf activity yesterday
    Does anyone know why the volume on these 2 mid-cap ETFs spiked yesterday so substantially? MDY was 5X average volume and I believe IJH was in the similar volume activity? I could not find any reason for it as MDY has had very low trading volumes recently.
    Thank you.
  • A single-silo credit allocator? In crisis, the Fed may swing the exit gate shut on you
    Many (most?) people who use MFs for fixed-income investing do so in diversified vehicles that to a greater or lesser extent are also multi-sector. There are also some who are more contrarian, who rotate successfully/opportunistically from one fixed-income asset class to another, as good value arises from dislocations. Some do both.
    This blog briefly notes the positives of both, in the context of how each approach could be impacted by measures the Fed Reserve is "considering" as part of a financial crisis action plan:
    http://blog.alliancebernstein.com/index.php/2014/06/17/multisector-plan-can-help-avoid-the-crowd-in-credit/
    You see, according to the Fed trial balloon leakthinking, under dire circumstances, retail investors in some transparent, open-end mutual funds might stampede for the exits in large sector-specific funds (the horror!); the degree to which this spasmic disorder would threaten the banking system of the country is so unpredictable, yet similar in impact to what one might expect to come from the "shadow banking system," that one should create contigency plans for a run on these funds as if they are part of the "shadow banking system." At least that's the way I'm interpreting what I've read here and elsewhere about this contrivance discussion:
    http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/290ed010-f567-11e3-91a8-00144feabdc0.html?siteedition=intl#axzz34uHmImp0
    See what you think, esp. you dangerous single-silo credit allocators.
  • What do you think about these funds?
    Thanks, Crash!
    I took a look….two (2) things at $20 billion too big and it’s going to close. YAFFX just closed hard! It has $8.5 billion….I do like MAPOX on my short buy list on pullback.
    Yes, Ron, sometimes I do this too much. My wife says this too…..and about other things, too. So I say, “Sweetie, want to have sex (lol!)?” That ends that discussion. I’ve learned a lot over the years being married.
    The Puddn
  • Top Midcap Funds Of 15 Years Spotty Year-To-Date
    OJ, thanks; missed that. If you pay a whopping load you can get in for the usual small amount. And then your results will be much worse than FLPSX. Oh, wait, it's also closed. It also has lagged its Russell MCV index for 1/5/10y, huh? Guess I be stickin' with Tillinghast.
  • Top Midcap Funds Of 15 Years Spotty Year-To-Date
    FYI: The average midcap stock fund has preformed second only to small-cap funds the past 15 years and well beyond the broad stock market. Midcap funds are having a difficult time staying ahead of the large-cap-oriented S&P 500 this year
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://license.icopyright.net/user/viewFreeUse.act?fuid=MTgxODI5Njg=
    Enlarged View Of Fund Graphic: http://news.investors.com/photopopup.aspx?path=WMUTO1_061714.gif&docId=704860&xmpSource=&width=1000&height=1063&caption=
  • Oil: Significent Iraq Disruptions, Unlikely, Morgan Stanley Says
    Oppenheimer senior energy analyst Fadel Gheit said the oil stocks are overpriced and are trading as if crude was going to stay at $110 per barrel.
    "It really depends on what the balance of power is going to be a month from now, a year from now," Gheit said. "The Sunnis are left basically with nothing but arms because they were excluded from the government. They have no oil resources. The Kurds took their share, and the Baghdad government wants to keep their share. Maliki is not an inclusive prime minister. he's doing what Saddam Hussein did but the opposite way. He favored his own tribe over another."
    An Alarmist's Worst Case?
    As the second-largest and fastest-growing producer in OPEC, Iraq has been pumping 3.3 million barrels a day. OPEC's quota is 30 million barrels. So far, oil production has not been disrupted, but a northern pipeline that takes oil from Kirkuk to Turkey has been damaged by militant assaults and has been out of service since March.
    "If they can hold onto Baghdad, and the south of Iraq, 3 million barrels will continue to flow and it won't be a big deal," said John Kilduff, energy analyst with Again Capital. "Any credible threat to central Baghdad or the oil fields— it's $150 just for starters."
    Kilduff said any spike higher would probably fade quickly, but consumer confidence would plunge, and it would launch an energy crisis because Saudi Arabia, the global swing producer, cannot make up that much lost capacity.
    Originally here.
    http://seekingalpha.com/news/1803223-some-analysts-say-energy-stocks-are-getting-too-hot
    More detail here.
    http://www.cnbc.com/id/101763888
    Other Energy News and Background.
    BlackRock’s Russ Koesterich thinks energy stocks will benefit:
    The recent unrest in the Middle East and the potential for higher oil prices confirms our views on two sectors: positive on energy while negative on U.S. retailers and other consumer stocks. Year-to-date, energy has been one of the best-performing sectors while consumer discretionary has trailed the broader market.
    http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowatchtoday/2014/06/16/buy-energy-sell-consumer-discretionary-as-higher-oil-prices-set-to-linger/
    I have energy positions in GAGEX ,CRZAX ,CSHAX and NORW.Also two small Canadian plays CDLRF and CESDF .All are at or near Y T D or all-time highs. Blind Hog !
    Energy Statistics and World View.
    Oil remains the world’s leading fuel, with 33% of global energy demand, but lost market share to other fuels for the 14th consecutive year.
    China surpassed the U.S. as the world’s largest net oil importer, bringing in 7 million barrels a day.
    Coal consumption increased by 3% in 2013, below its yearly average of 3.9% but enough to put coal’s share of world energy consumption at 30%, its highest since 1970, BP said in its 63rd annual statistical review on Monday. The review is an industry benchmark.
    http://blogs.marketwatch.com/energy-ticker/2014/06/16/renewable-energy-demand-rises-to-record-2-7-of-global-consumption/?mod=WSJBlog
    For 63 years, the
    BP Statistical Review of World Energy
    has
    provided high-quality objective and globally consistent data on
    world energy markets. The review is one of the most widely
    respected and authoritative publications in the field of energy
    economics, used for reference by the media, academia, world
    governments and energy companies. A new edition is published
    every June.Highlights:
    World proved natural gas reserves at end-2013 stood at 185.7 trillion cubic metres (tcm), sufficient to meet 54.8 years of global production.
    Total world proved oil reserves reached 1687.9 billion barrels at the end of 2013, sufficient to meet 53.3 years of global production.
    World proved coal reserves in 2013 were sufficient to meet 113 years of global production, by far the largest R/P ratio for any fossil fuel.
    World coal production increased by 0.8% in 2013, well below the 3% increase in global consumption. Indonesia (+9.4%) recorded the largest production increment – the
    first time since 1998 that China did not have the largest growth increment. Global consumption growth was below average but was once again the fastest among fossil
    fuels. China and India accounted for 88% of global growth
    World nuclear power generation increased by 0.9%, the first increase since 2010. Gains in the US, China, and Canada more than offset declines in South Korea, Ukraine,
    Spain and Russia. Global hydroelectric output grew by a below-average 2.9%. Growth in China, Russia, Spain and India was partly offset by large declines in Brazil and
    the Nordic countries
    48 Page Review:
    http://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/pdf/Energy-economics/statistical-review-2014/BP-statistical-review-of-world-energy-2014-full-report.pdf
  • Barry Ritholtz: Curate Your Personal Investment Resources
    Hi Ted,
    It appears that you have decided to continue the march, at least for now. That's good. Thank you.
    Indeed you have been doing this form of research for years, and I have benefited from it since the early FundAlarm days. Compared to your time on the job, Barry Ritholtz is a rookie. He was likely in the 4th grade when you posted your first listing.
    I’m happy that you have elected to basically ignore the MFO naysayers except for your very perceptive summary sentence. This too reflects your overarching experience level.
    I suspect some segment of these naysayers adhere to the following advice which was published about 7 months ago by Ritholtz titled “Reduce the Noise Levels in Your Investment Process”:
    " (1) Constantly consume mainstream media. Financial television is an excellent source of actionable investing ideas.
    (2) Play down data. It’s overrated. Stick with anecdotes from people you know personally and your gut instincts.
    (3) Pay attention to pundits. They exist for the sole purpose of helping you reach a comfortable retirement.
    (4) Get the inside dope. All of the important information about the stock market — especially when it is going to crash or rally — is known only to handful of secret insiders. If you can’t get their magic knowledge, blame them for any losses you incur.
    (5) Stress about this. Exert lots of energy, spend lots of time and create lots of tension about all of the following: Federal Reserve and the Taper, the Dollar versus the Euro, the Tea Party and Congress, Hyper-Inflation, European Sovereign Bank Debt, Gold, China, Deflation, Austerity and the Hindenburg Omen.
    (6) Don’t do the math. Numbers are vastly overrated, and probability analysis is for geeks anyway.
    (7) Stay in your comfort zone. Focus only on those news sources that are in sync with your politics. Seek out sources that confirm your preexisting opinions and investment postures. Never read anything that challenges your beliefs.
    (8) Think fast. Trading is where the big money is made! Don’t worry about the long term — it’s way off in the future. Measure your success in hours and days, not years and decades.
    (9) Have a Super Happy Fun Time. There is no reason that you cannot also have a good time with your retirement account: It’s tax -deferred, so you have no capital gains consequences. Have fun with it — that’s what it’s there for anyway!
    (10) Ask: What Have You Done For Me Lately? Never listen to people with good long-term track records who may have had a losing period. When Warren Buffett underperformed in 1999, you should have written him off. Investing is about recent performance!"
    Of course, Ritholtz was just showing off his sarcastic side. He meant and believes just the opposite. He called this subsection of his article “How to Get More Noise and Less Signal”. I love it! In this arena you and Ritholtz share some common characteristics.
    Thanks once again for doing this arduous task. It has saved me and many other MFO members countless hours of searching time while wisely directing our attention to meaningful candidate articles that will positively inform us in most instances.
    Continue to continue the march.
    Best Wishes.
  • 5 Smaller Foreign Funds Worth A Look
    Morningstar's funny. "Smaller" = "our smallest medalists." The sizes here range from $1 - 8 billion and Kinnel himself admits "the last two [Causeway at $5B and Manning & Napier at $8B] are a little too big to count" as "below the radar" but includes them anyways. Why? Because Morningstar doesn't know of five good international funds "below the radar."
    I agree with Ted's judgment and might have a chance to listen to Ms. Ketterer in the week ahead. I'll let you know what I hear.
    David
  • Scott Burns: Can You Buy Investment Performance ?
    Hmm. Never heard of such a thing in 35 years of investing, at least in Mass., and my in-laws neither, in Conn. $3k on $100k? Maybe we're spoiled by Fido, but even when I was wrapped with PW, old ML, and Bear-Stearns, long ago, that was not the case. It is true that if you calculated in the awful trading commissions and other fees, the total was high, though not 3% effective.