Many funds have lagged this year. I've lagged as well. Suspect the 50% tumble in oil and hit to producers has a lot to do with it. Some funds like OAKBX like to hedge overall equity risk with positions in energy. Can go either way - but in 2014 that really hurt.
Those with oracle-like powers may wish to offer a prediction here. On December 1, 2015, will the price of WTI be closer to: (1) $40 (2) $60 (3) $80 ?
* It's nice to see David get the recognition. He always makes a great deal of sense to me.

Hi all,
I am adding an additional comment to this thread which reads ...
As of Friday December 26th market close Morningstar's Market Valuation Graph is reporting that stocks, in general, are selling at about six percent above their fair value. At these levels, I think I'll still continue with my plan to unwind my spiff and sell about another four to five percent of my equity allocation off over the coming weeks. In short words, I plan to reduce my allocation to equities by about ten percent during the first and possibly second quarter of 2015 as long as stocks remain well overbought.
I have provided a link below to the graph for those that would like to reference it.
http://www.morningstar.com/market-valuation/market-fair-value-graph.aspx
And, yes, I think now is a good time, for me, to rebalance and raise a little cash as I am now overweight equities within my asset allocation. I am not adding to my bond allocation as I have been studying my balanced and my asset allocation funds and, for the most part, they seem to be reducing thier bond allocation. Lately, I have been wanting to keep my overall allocation to bonds at about 25% within my portfolio; however, due to asset movement in my balanced and asset allocation funds my overall allocation to bonds has now dropped to about 22% within my portfolio.
Perhaps, this asset movement by some fund managers from fixed income securities to equity securities explains, in part, the current equity market rally propelling equities well into overbought territority.
Old_Skeet

Regards,
Ted
Closing NAV $39.46; -(1.71): -4.15%
Dividend $0.27900: 12/24/2014(Record Date) 12/26/2014 (Reinvest Date) 12/29/2014 (Payable Date)
ST Cap Gain $0.20100: 12/24/2014 (Record Date) 12/26/2014 (Reivest Date) 12/29/2014 (Payable Date)
LT Cap Gain $1.30100: 12/24/2014( Record Date) 12/26/2014 (Reinvest Date) 12/29/2014 (Payble Date)

@MFO Members: I agree with DlphcOracl that we are still in a secular bull market, and my forecast of a 15% return, made last February, in 2014 for the S&P 500 is right on (2,215) target. For 2015, I predict the S&P 500 will close at 2,401 a 13% rise for the year.
Regards,
Ted

>> not many funds have beaten the SP500 3% annualized for the past 20 years.
Correct, not many, though you mean 19y, right?
FLPSX is one. There may be some Vanguard likewise.
One thing that is interesting is that it began its 08-09 dive a full year prior, oddly. It is since the bottom (spring 09) that it has raced past everyone. Even FLVCX, amazingly. But that is only 5.5y.

Hi mcmarasco,
Raising cash as I unwind my special equity spiff position that I built through most of October as we move into the 1st Quarter of 2015. For those that have been following my recent post then you know of my strategy in doing this.
I wish all … “Good Investing.”
Old_Skeet

Here's some decent Vanguard information by another Market watch writer: FWIW...tb
“Quietly, Vanguard’s actively run funds have outperformed their more-famous index siblings,” said Morningstar researcher John Rekenthaler in a recent column, pointing to returns over the past 15 years. That’s a particularly striking result, since in general, most active funds aren’t able to beat their benchmarks consistently.
What’s Vanguard’s secret to success? It includes making sure its active funds are low-cost, as well as outsourcing the stock-picking to fund managers who go through an extensive screening process.
“We think we have a very good process for selecting managers,” Vanguard CEO Bill McNabb told MarketWatch. He also said: “If you’re going to take active risk, your best chance of preserving any outperformance is to have a low-cost portfolio.”

REPEAT:
Upcoming Correction
Tampabay
September 15 in Off-Topic Flag
“Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.” – Peter Lynch

Hi folks,
Thanks to all that have made comment.
Here is what I have decided to do in management of my special equity investment spiff assuming the market continues its upward advancement.
Now that the S&P 500 Index is in striking distance of 2,100 I have decided to reduce my equity allocation by one percent for every twenty five point gain on the Index above the 2,100 mark. In doing this, the dollar value will remain about the same within equities but my cash position will grow as the Index advances and I move through the process.
Should there be a 125 point gain in the Index during the first quarter of 2015 with it reaching a value of about 2,225 then I’ll take a five percent reduction at the fifth 25 point step. In doing this I will have removed sums of approximate value for the spiff itself plus removed some capital appreciation form the equity side of the portfolio while at the same time increased my cash allocation by a like amounts through the process. Thus, I’ll be reducing my overall portfolio risk as equities have advanced; and, by my thinking continue to becoming well overbought. At this point I will revisit and revaluate my posture.
If the plan is successful then this special spiff will have produced better than a 13% return since mid October through an averaging in and out process.
Wishing all … “Good Investing”
Old_Skeet
Note: All of this is subject to change should the market move against me beyond a mild dip.

FYI: I presently hold a large position in PRHSX, and in the past have held PONCX
Regards,
Ted
T. Rowe Price: http://investorplace.com/2014/12/best-t-rowe-price-funds-2015/print
Pimco: http://investorplace.com/2014/12/best-pimco-funds-2015/print

@NumbersGal: As the fund's name indicates "Matthew 25" your going to have a lot of volatility with such a concentrated portfolio with Apple being 15%. U.S. News & World Report ranks MXXVX # 11 In The (LCG) Fund Category. I like the fund with excellent long-term results.
Regards,
Ted
http://money.usnews.com/funds/mutual-funds/large-growth/matthew-25-fund/mxxvx
A Picture Is Worth A Thousands Words: http://news.investors.com/photopopup.aspx?path=WEBlv122414.png&docId=731965&xmpSource=&width=1000&height=1152&caption=&id=731966

Hi again NumbersGal. Eye watering numbers...tears of joy long term and across full cycles, tears of pain during drawdowns...more severe than the annualized numbers show. But I suspect not many funds have beaten the SP500 3% annualized for the past 20 years. FWIW.
Hope all is well.
c

Fund is not diversified (can be up to 25% in one company). Per M* the management "team" consists of 1 person.
Their website http://www.matthew25fund.com/m25faq.html is not very informativ e (although they do give the reference to Matthew 25 text at http://www.matthew25fund.com/M25gospel2.pdf)
The fund had a tough time in 2007 (-19%) and 2008 (-40%) but still has good numbers over longer periods.

FYI: It may be the Mutual Fund Store, but company executives are not dogmatic about the "mutual fund" part.
Starting in 2015, the $9.5 billion registered investment adviser known for selling mutual funds and financial advice to the masses will add a product to its repertoire: ETFs
Regards,
Ted
http://www.investmentnews.com/article/20141223/FREE/141229997?template=printart

FYI: Though it’s easy to find a stock fund that beat the S&P 500 index, even over periods of 10 years or longer, buying such a fund seldom results in continued outperformance. But I’m going to tell you about a mutual fund that’s different. Let’s call it “Fund X” for now and later I’ll do the big reveal on the fund and toss in a key lesson.
Regards,
Ted
http://blogs.wsj.com/totalreturn/2014/12/23/a-fund-that-trounces-the-sp-500/tab/print/?mg=blogs-wsj&url=http%3A%2F%2Fblogs.wsj.com%2Ftotalreturn%2F2014%2F12%2F23%2Fa-fund-that-trounces-the-sp-500%2Ftab%2Fprint&fpid=2,121
M* Snapshot Of VTSMX: http://quotes.morningstar.com/fund/vtsmx/f?t=VTSMX
Lipper Snapshot Of VTSMX: http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/vtsmx
VTSMX vs. VFINX: http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/mutual-fund/compare?Tickers=VTSMX+VFINX&Compare=Returns

FYI:
Regards,
Ted
http://online.barrons.com/articles/todays-top-5-stock-picks-finding-value-in-a-frenzy-1419446844#printMode
M* Snapshot Of SGENX: http://quotes.morningstar.com/fund/sgenx/f?t=SGENX
Lipper Snapshot Of SGENX: http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/sgenx
SEGNX Is Ranked #6 In The (WA) Fund Category By U.S. News & World Report:
http://money.usnews.com/funds/mutual-funds/world-allocation/first-eagle-global-fund/sgenx

Merry Christmas MJG and Dex.
14. "There is no such thing as a normal economy, or a normal stock market."
Perhaps there is but it is very short lived and if you blink you'll miss it. Ever wonder why Bill Gross termed the phrase "the new normal?"
8. "There are no points awarded for difficulty. Yes, there is. It is called risk."
What do you get for risk? A lump of coal from Charles Jaffe.
15." It can be difficult to tell the difference between luck and skill in investing."
The modest investor will tell you it was luck. The braggadocio will say it was skill. ( my statement is not pertaining to anyone here)
Thanks again @MJG for this thread.

1. All past market crashes are viewed as opportunities - if you had the $ to buy
but all future market crashes are viewed as risks - if you have money invested.
2. Most bubbles begin with a rational idea that gets taken to an irrational extreme.
Tulip mania, pet rocks - enough said
3. “I don’t know” are three of the most underused words in investing. True
4. Short-term thinking is at the root of most investing problems. Because we are all dead in the long term.
5. Investing is overwhelmingly a game of psychology. True
6. Things change quickly—and more drastically than many think. Ya think!
7. Three of the most important variables to consider are the valuations of stocks when you buy them, the length of time you can stay invested, and the fees you pay to brokers and money managers. Have you seen the cost of trading stocks at on line brokers?
8. There are no points awarded for difficulty. Yes, there is. It is called risk.
9. A couple of times per decade, investors forget that recessions happen a couple of times per decade. Don't you mean about once a decade - did you forget?
10. Don’t check your brokerage account once a day and your blood pressure only once a year. I like looking at large numbers - it lowers my BP.
11. You should pay the most attention to the investor who talks about his or her mistakes.
Yes - there is something to learn.
12. Change your mind when the facts change. Maybe the important facts.
13. Read past stock-market predictions, and you will take current predictions less seriously. True.
14. There is no such thing as a normal economy, or a normal stock market. Why not?
15. It can be difficult to tell the difference between luck and skill in investing. Why?
16. You are only diversified if some of your investments are performing worse than others.
I think many here would disagree.

I think we have to remember that writers have to write a lot of articles - it is their job.
I'd say the less I read and watch the news the smarter I've become.

Hi Guys,
Everyone and his uncle offer year end investment forecasts and rules of engagement.
Typically the forecasts are trash and not worth the paper they’re printed on. Sometimes the rules are similarly trash, but occasionally some well integrated rules, that have been thoughtfully assembled from experience, do serve a useful purpose. They can act as a compass to guide your investment ship to a safe harbor.
There are many practical rules that have been cobbled together to make a consequential list. I have several favorites. One such list that is high on my personal hit parade is from Morgan Housel. He recently published that list in a WSJ article.
I failed to note the reference, but I did make a copy of his 16-point guideline. Here it is:
1. All past market crashes are viewed as opportunities, but all future market crashes are viewed as risks.
2. Most bubbles begin with a rational idea that gets taken to an irrational extreme.
3. “I don’t know” are three of the most underused words in investing.
4. Short-term thinking is at the root of most investing problems.
5. Investing is overwhelmingly a game of psychology.
6. Things change quickly—and more drastically than many think.
7. Three of the most important variables to consider are the valuations of stocks when you buy them, the length of time you can stay invested, and the fees you pay to brokers and money managers.
8. There are no points awarded for difficulty.
9. A couple of times per decade, investors forget that recessions happen a couple of times per decade.
10. Don’t check your brokerage account once a day and your blood pressure only once a year.
11. You should pay the most attention to the investor who talks about his or her mistakes.
12. Change your mind when the facts change.
13. Read past stock-market predictions, and you will take current predictions less seriously.
14. There is no such thing as a normal economy, or a normal stock market.
15. It can be difficult to tell the difference between luck and skill in investing.
16. You are only diversified if some of your investments are performing worse than others.
I think rule 7 is especially insightful. What you pay, how long you hold, and how much you keep after fees is the whole ballgame. Rule 8 advocates for simplicity. Rule 11 emphasizes that real learning takes place in what the military calls After Action Reviews that uncover faulty concepts and/or execution.
Note that rule 13 supports my position on forecasting futility. It’s fun each new year to project and to read forecasts. But only a fool acts on these historically and scandalously inept predictions.
I have a little time before our Christmas party moves into high gear, so I’ll research the Housel list. I just located the referenced article. Here is the Link so you can read the entire piece:
http://www.wsj.com/articles/16-rules-for-investors-to-live-by-1417789469
Enjoy! Best Wishes for a Happy Holiday season and a prosperous coming year.