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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • SEC's White Vows To Get Tougher On Mutual Funds
    FYI: Securities and Exchange Commission Chairwoman Mary Jo White says the Commission is taking a magnifying glass on the regulation of the asset management industry and mutual funds in particular, pointing out that in 2013, 57 million American households, or 46% of those households, are invested in one of the 10,000 U.S. mutual funds that hold more than $63 trillion of assets under management.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.thinkadvisor.com/2014/12/12/secs-white-vows-to-get-tougher-on-mutual-funds?t=portfolio-construction&page_all=1
  • Don't Outthink This.
    Hmm ... Very difficult to pull off. Markets can remain irrational longer than most of us can remain solvent. The time needed for a bounce-back can be painfully long as those of us who thought Japan looked cheap in 1997 learned the hard way. It looked even cheaper a decade later. Percentages are funny things. Oil & some producers have lost 50 percent this year. That might imply some kind of floor? Nope. They can still drop another 30, 40, or 50 percent next year if they want to.
    It's very hard to time incremental purchases going down. Tendancy is to buy too early, than to throw good money after bad, than to get frustrated and bail at a loss before rewards are realized.
    However, rewards can be phenomenal if one gets it right.
    Delphi - I've been doing what you recommend with the "play money" segment of my portfolio (less than 30% of total assets). And it hurts. I believe that 3 or 4 years from now I'll be pleased with the results. However, that's not for certain. Get into a serious deflationary spiral and all bets are off.
  • Don't Outthink This.
    Reply to Derf:
    1. I cannot say or recommend what you should do with regard to buying individual stocks because I do not know how it fits in with your current investment portfolio and temperament. You certainly can purchase or average into some of the ETFs or ETNs that have been beaten down and increase your exposure to the energy sector.
    2. Regarding your MF managers: Your MF managers SHOULD be looking for bargains and unjustly beaten down stocks and scaling into them . However, most will act as if they are "deer caught in the headlights" and do nothing until well after the fact because they are seeking a false "margin of safety". AFTER these stocks have bounced back and gained 25% to 50% in a few months they will THEN have their security blankets and begin nibbling. How can you tell which of your MFs have managers that are investors or deer?
    Very simple. Take each MF you have and look it up on Morningstar (M*). Click on "Performance" and then click on "Expanded View". This will show your fund's performance year-by-year for the past ten years. Now, go to the year 2009, which is when the bear market ended and the market reversed violently to the upside, and see how your MF did compared to its peers, i.e., compared to the average for its M* sector. If your fund did not outperform its peers in 2009 then its manager was asleep at the switch or frozen with fear and did not buy stocks when they were extreme bargains.
    As an example: WSCVX (Walthausen SC Value fund) returned 42.39% in 2009 compared to the M* SCV average of 31.32% in 2009. Clearly, Walthausen scooped up value stocks and the fund lived up to its name. OAKLX (Oakmark Select) is another example of a fund whose manager, Bill Nygren, bought aggressively at the bottom, returning 52.46% versus the LC blend average of 24.29% for that year.
  • Don't Outthink This.
    A 50% decline in the price of WTI crude over the past three months without any fundamental change from what has/had occurred throughout the first half of the year, and the extreme selloffs in many energy stocks and other stocks with peripheral association to oil is a gift from the gods. In any given 1-2 year period there is a stock market black swan event that is totally unexpected and unrelated to the fundamentals. Rather, it is an emotion-driven event that takes on a life of its own, overshooting to the upside or downside.
    The stock market is a forward discounting mechanism - not backward looking. This decline might be overdone. But, the oversupply/storage and production are real as is the weak economic projections for many countries.
    So, there may be a bounce, before continued decline.
    "Don't try to catch a falling knife." Dex
  • Don't Outthink This.
    A 50% decline in the price of WTI crude over the past three months without any fundamental change from what has/had occurred throughout the first half of the year, and the extreme selloffs in many energy stocks and other stocks with peripheral association to oil is a gift from the gods. In any given 1-2 year period there is a stock market black swan event that is totally unexpected and unrelated to the fundamentals. Rather, it is an emotion-driven event that takes on a life of its own, overshooting to the upside or downside. This is an extraordinary investing opportunity and you should have already made your Xmas shopping list and be averaging into the best of the stocks and ETFs that have been decimated.
    Examples:
    1. Mid and small cap energy stocks: WLL, OAS, CXO, CLR. These are NOT stocks with extraordinary debt or leverage within their sector and they have declined between 50% to 70% in just 3-4 months. WLL already trades well below book value.
    2. ETFs: energy exploration & production (PXE, PXI).
    MLPs (MLPI, MLPX)
    3. MLPs: EPD, MMP, PAA, WPZ. These are companies that transport oil or natural gas and are involved in various aspects of the energy infrastructure. A high percentage of their revenues come from long-term, fee-based contracts with built-in price escalators. They will get paid regardless of the price of WTI crude and the energy demand in the US shows little sign of abating. The U.S. is not in a recession nor does anyone really see one on the horizon based upon recent employment data, retail sales figures, corporate profits, etc., These stocks have sold off about 20% in three months and they pay dividends between 4% to 8% (WPZ).
    4. GLOG (GasLog): Off nearly 50% from its high this year, price:book ratio of 1.5 and a nearly 3% dividend. This stock is involved in liquid natural gas cargo transport and the price of WTI crude should not logically result in a loss of 50% NAV. Do you really think the demand for inexpensive natural gas by emerging market countries and European countries that are totally dependent upon imports for their energy needs will evaporate for the remainder of the decade??
    5. Transports: Specifically, the railroad stocks: GBX, TRN, CP, CNI. Railroad stocks with ANY exposure to transport of oil have also been dragged down, even if oil transport makes up a small fraction of their total business.
    6. Chemical stocks: WLK, LYB. Both stocks are involved in oil refining and production of gasoline additives although this is not a majority of their businesses. Both have lost 45% in the past three months and LYB sports a dividend approaching 4%.
    I could go on but the point is obvious: if you are not slowly buying ETFs and top quality stocks that are now on sale by averaging in you need to ask yourself what you are waiting for. Are you the same "investor(s)" that would not buy stocks or ETFs in March 2009 after the S&P 500 had lost 55% of its value because you were waiting for it to decline another 20% ?? Because the CNBC "experts" said the S&P 500 was going to decline to 400 or 500 and the world's financial system was going to collapse and vaporize??
    FWIW, I am slowly buying into many of the above names with the understanding and expectation that my initial positions will lose between 5% to 25% over the next month or two. However, that is why one slowly scales into a position. When the turn does come it will literally happen overnight and these stocks will gain 5% to 10% a day for several consecutive days and then you will say that you've missed the turn and it is too late to get in.
    These are not dot.com stocks or biotech stocks with promising Phase I or Phase II trials for a single drug. These are established, well run businesses with very real assets and earnings. You will not catch the precise bottom but 2 or 3 years from now these will be very profitable investments and you will ask yourself why you missed this investing opportunity.
  • The Closing Bell: Dow's 300-point Drop Friday Caps Worst Week Since 2011 S&P 500 Since 2012
    ACDJX was down 7.11% and ARYVX down 5.86%. I'll have some extra shares for the future so as always its not the big loss it seems.
  • The Closing Bell: Dow's 300-point Drop Friday Caps Worst Week Since 2011 S&P 500 Since 2012
    Hope nobody's fund decides to declare X-Dividend today (on top of the already formidable drop).
    Might be too much for some.
    Oil sure looks like it wants to go to $50 fast --- or maybe $40 or $30?
  • Art Cashin: High-yield contagion fears rise as oil extends drop
    US 10 year at 2.11% the 52 week low is 1.91%
    When will it hit 1%?
    Germany, Spain, Italy, UK all lower then the US!
    A close below 2% and I pay Heezsafe $250 or if he has disappeared, I simply contribute to David and the board. This will be less than 1/10 of 1% of what I made in junk munis this year. The moral of the story is trade what you see, not what you think!! In other words, go with price and only price and leave your opinions and beliefs (and especially those of the experts) behind. No way did I ever think rates would get this low. In fact, I was among the mass of misinformed who thought rates had only one way to go at the beginning of the year and that was up.
  • Art Cashin: High-yield contagion fears rise as oil extends drop
    US 10 year at 2.11% the 52 week low is 1.91%
    When will it hit 1%?
    Germany, Spain, Italy, UK all lower then the US!
  • Ya got any funds, etf's, etc. that have surpised you to the good or bad side of investing?
    @JohnChisum
    I amended my statement about PQTIX; as there was a distribution on Dec. 10, yesterday.
    But, I will watch this fund, too; to find how it does with the overall market directions.
    This is Fido composition view for PQTIX.
  • Ya got any funds, etf's, etc. that have surpised you to the good or bad side of investing?
    Pretty crazy stuff recently related (supposedly) to oil pricing; and hopefully most are not getting their investment arse kicked with some of this. It is a very good time to review this or that fund or sector or stock to discover reactions over the past few weeks; and into the future, as needed. One fund that has been noted again recently is PQTIX PQTDX. On Dec. 10, yesterday; this fund closed down -3.5% and today, closed at +.35%. No, I don't know what this means for this fund.
    *****Opps, my bad. PQTIX PQTDX had distributions on Dec. 10, yesterday.
    scott noted about HYG in the oil thread. The below is my note regarding the high yield bond sector, in particular; the active managed funds.
    As to your reference to HYG. This etf did have (have not checked for the past week) 18% of its composition involved in energy debt, so its price decline makes sense. The current nasty problem for those invested in high yield bond funds is: harmful or undesirable contact or influence; also know as contagion. This sector is taking a whack, too.
    I have reviewed several hy bond funds where we have been invested previous; and the majority hold 5-8% directly related to the energy sector. Obviously, these small percentages have put downward pressure on the funds; but I suspect some of the downward price pressure is also tied to the down moves related to equity in general. Folks just moving away for now; although I sure would like to know where the monies are traveling.
    Have you a good or bad surprise from any of your holdings, with the ongoing oil price melt?
    Thank you and take care,
    Catch
  • James Dondero's Global Allocation Fund Receives Morningstar's 5-Star Rating
    Just wanted to repost the Barron's interview here and point out the new 5-star rating by Morningstar on Dec. 8, 2014
    Manager's Bio
    Name: James Dondero
    Age: 51
    Title: Co-founder, president, portfolio manager
    Scouring the Globe for Cheap Stocks and Bonds
    Jim Dondero of the Highland Global Allocation Fund had a banner 2013. Here's what he's buying now.
    Jim Dondero is a hunter who knows that you can't hit your target every time.
    But Dondero and Mark Okada, who co-founded Highland Capital Management, a Dallas asset manager known for investing in distressed debt, shot a bull's-eye last year—a 30% return—in the Highland Global Allocation Fund (ticker: HCOAX).
    That's a neat trick for a fund that is about 60% stocks, 40% bonds. Thanks in part to a big position in American Airlines Group stock (AAL), which tripled, as well as some of its debt holdings, the fund's performance was three times that of other funds in Morningstar's moderate risk "world allocation" category.
    Dondero and his team of managers can hunt the globe, bundling their fixed-income expertise with stock picks across industries. The fund strategy was more equity-focused until 2013, and that especially smarted in 2008, when the fund sank 33%, or about 10 points worse than comparable funds. Willingness to take risks in turnaround stories has paid off recently, but Dondero does play defense: He can short stocks, and has been known to hold a significant cash position.
    As a firm, Highland took its lumps during the financial crisis, shuttering two hedge funds as investors ran for the hills. Today, Highland has roughly $19 billion in assets under management, and a focus on collateralized loan obligations (CLOs) and alternative strategies in hedge funds, mutual funds and other portfolios.
    Excerpts of our conversation with Dondero follow: He is eyeing Puerto Rico debt, he thinks Europe investments have had their run and suggests other areas where investors might take profits.
    You can read the rest of the article here: http://online.barrons.com/articles/SB50001424053111904628504579423100003089692
  • 3 Best Vanguard Funds For 2015
    FYI: Passive investing is hugely popular, and 2015 is shaping up to be a transitional year for capital markets, which may bring significant uncertainty and volatility. Therefore, the coming year could be a great time to take a close look at the best Vanguard funds.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://investorplace.com/2014/12/best-vanguard-funds-for-2015/print
  • Q&A With Burt Malkiel
    “A Random Walk" is on its 11th edition and has sold more than 1.5 million copies
    And yet, only 4 views on this site. Interesting.
  • The 5 Best Fidelity Funds for 2015
    I should take a closer look at Fidelity equity funds - I'd pretty much given up on them for several years (with exceptions like FLPSX). FSDIX looks interesting, though I've always had problems fitting hybrid funds into my portfolio.
    I'm not clear on the point of FGRTX, for a couple of reasons. First, why single out these companies - can you find a large cap fund that doesn't already have Apple? Why overweight megacaps?
    Second, megacaps would appear to be the portion of the market least likely to benefit from active management. One can get a pure megacap passive fund like OEF (iShares S&P 100), or the more concentrated, and even cheaper, BRLIX (Bridgeway Blue Chip 35 Index)?
    Regarding FLPSX ... about a decade ago, I listened to a M* analyst talk about Tillinghast, describing how he could talk intelligently about every one of the hundreds of stocks in the portfolio. He added that this skill was well beyond what he'd seen in any other manager. The comments were in response to the usual question of how big can the fund get. It seems to keep going strong.
    I ascribe its underperformance in the past few years to the large percentage of foreign holdings in its portfolio. I feel that in the long run, a large percentage of foreign stocks is a plus. Though I wonder why M* doesn't reclassify the fund as a world stock fund, as it did for MQIFX Mutual Quest (formerly Mutual Qualified).
    Finally, as a short term play on healthcare, if one wants to make a political wager, it might make sense to pick up FSMEX (medical supply and equipment). If there's any part of ACA likely to be jettisoned, it's the excise tax on medical devices. I don't know how much of an impact that would have, I'm bad with sectors in general, and I don't do short term trading. So consider the source of that suggestion.
  • MAPIX dividend update.
    There is a terse discussion over at the M* forums on this same topic. Some additional thoughts can be read over there.
    http://socialize.morningstar.com/NewSocialize/forums/p/343430/3593192.aspx#PageIndex=1