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The stock market is a forward discounting mechanism - not backward looking. This decline might be overdone. But, the oversupply/storage and production are real as is the weak economic projections for many countries.A 50% decline in the price of WTI crude over the past three months without any fundamental change from what has/had occurred throughout the first half of the year, and the extreme selloffs in many energy stocks and other stocks with peripheral association to oil is a gift from the gods. In any given 1-2 year period there is a stock market black swan event that is totally unexpected and unrelated to the fundamentals. Rather, it is an emotion-driven event that takes on a life of its own, overshooting to the upside or downside.
A close below 2% and I pay Heezsafe $250 or if he has disappeared, I simply contribute to David and the board. This will be less than 1/10 of 1% of what I made in junk munis this year. The moral of the story is trade what you see, not what you think!! In other words, go with price and only price and leave your opinions and beliefs (and especially those of the experts) behind. No way did I ever think rates would get this low. In fact, I was among the mass of misinformed who thought rates had only one way to go at the beginning of the year and that was up.US 10 year at 2.11% the 52 week low is 1.91%
When will it hit 1%?
Germany, Spain, Italy, UK all lower then the US!
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