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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Gabelli abc fund--GABCX--is listed as Mid Cap Growth ??
    FWIW, I kinda like the fund. It is pretty unique. But the returns are pretty paltry. It holds up better in down markets (-6.5 max draw down) and is tame (ulcer index of 1.1), but the returns just aren't high enough to have me interested (annualized over the past 3 years, 3.5%). There's a place for this type of fund in some people's portfolio.
  • AAII Investor Sentiment
    Fed on Course For Mid-2015 Rate Rise, Job Market to Improve: Reuters Poll
    Reuters | Updated On: November 13, 2014 23:34 (IST)
    The latest poll, conducted November 7-13, showed that economists also expect the job market to continue to strengthen and inflation to trend higher.
    Twenty-four of 43 economists polled by Reuters said the Fed will likely start raising short-term interest rates in June of next year.
    Economists predicted gross domestic product growth will average 2.2 per cent in 2014, rising to 3 per cent in 2015 and back down to 2.8 per cent in 2016.
    The unemployment rate is seen dropping to an average of 5.5 per cent next year and 5.3 per cent in 2016, while core CPI inflation, a key concern for the Fed, is expected to rise to 1.9 per cent in 2015 and 2.2 per cent in 2016.
    http://profit.ndtv.com/news/global-economy/article-fed-on-course-for-mid-2015-rate-rise-job-market-to-improve-reuters-poll-696508
    Also:
    Fed's Fisher to be second policy hawk to retire in March
    Thu Nov 13, 2014 2:09pm EST
    Mandatory.Fisher, 65, is required by Fed rules to retire by next April Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser, who like Fisher has been a sharp critic of Fed policy and has also dissented this year, previously said he will retire on March 1.
    http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/11/13/us-usa-fed-fisher-idUSKCN0IX29820141113
  • DMCRX for Roth
    Hi all, I'm a big fan of the discussion board here at MFO. I was looking for some advice for my girlfriend's Roth that she can no longer contribute to due to her current income bracket.
    I got her out of a small cap growth fund from Buffalo Funds. She's at least 25 years away from withdrawing and I was looking at DMCRX, because of the outperformance that I found on M* over the past 12 years compared to other small value and micro funds.
    I'm also considering TSELX and WSVRX, but I'm not sure how long Mr. Walthausen is going to be around to keep working his magic.
    Thanks for your help
  • HQL/HQH Investor Seminar: 3.5 Hours on Biotech
    This is from a few months ago. These funds have been mentioned a few times on the board lately in the healthcare threads and thought this might be of interest. It covers the two main funds, but also goes considerably in-depth into the world of biotech, with guest speakers from portfolio companies and a panel discussion, no less.
    http://psav.mediasite.com/mediasite/Play/38bd46228861499a9c64cad3f28138d91d
  • Are Alternatives an Asset Class?
    May as well travel this path going forward; the other alternative investing.
    So, this mix comes down to the K.I.S.S. portfolio, eh? Below are combined returns for VTI and BND (or equivalent holdings):
    ---2009, + 16%
    ---2010, + 11.8%
    ---2011, + 4% (equity took a hit in July of this year)
    ---2012, + 10.2%
    ---2013, + 15.7%
    ---2014, + 8% (YTD)
    No, these investments didn't gather the big numbers from SPY or such in 2013; nor did they get hit hard on the head in 2011. The above numbers also have a compound growth factor from 2009 that is not factored. The simple average yearly return = 11% , more or less. I don't know anyone who would poo-poo 11% a year.
    Take care,
    Catch
  • Art Cashin: Nice To See Consolidation
    Old_Skeet, as I mentioned, been venturing into tech, albeit only about 15% spread among AAPL, MSFT, and SWKS with a speculative play in IG. Feel I could be late to the party and don't want to hurt my 2014 returns. Stocks are not my forte. AAPL is my largest and went in the day it got hit that Cook announced he was gay. Thought its decline that day was a silly reaction to its CEO being gay. I buy only on down days in individual equities the opposite of what I do with funds. AAPL hasn't given me very many down days on which to buy recently, plus now its very overbought. I did buy a very small amount of corporate junk this week (BHYSX) I like that area but not sure the market does yet and not sure how long I will hang with that. Still hold a *very* small amount of EIHYX but as you said, it has been a struggle in junk muniland since that pivotal 10/15 day. Had I stuck 100% there I would not have been a happy camper.
  • AAII Investor Sentiment
    FYI: With the S&P 500 seemingly hitting record highs on a daily basis, it is not surprising to see bullish sentiment increasing along with the market, and that's exactly what we saw this week. According to the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII), bullish sentiment increased by 5.24 percentage points to 57.93% from last week's level of 52.69%. What is likely to raise eyebrows, though, is the fact that with this week's increase, bullish sentiment hit its highest level in more than four years, and is the second highest reading we have seen in the current bull market.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2014/11/13/bullish-and-bearish-sentiment-both-increase.html?printerFriendly=true
    AAII Website: http://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey
  • The Breakfast Briefing: U.S.
    Well ... Ted:
    Perhaps, there will be new leadership, within the sectors, for 2015 ... Seems, the defensive sectors of health care, consumer staple and utilities have been the three big winners thus far for 2014. Not surprised ... as they generate good yield ... and, most folks today want a good yield. Look at some of the large cap tech's that have started to pay dividneds. Years back they would never have done this, with perhaps, the exception being IBM.
    My late father use to remind me often that yield generating stocks may go out of favor from time-to-time but they want go stale like the others. And, when the market pulls back they will still be around paying you a dividend where you can find patience awaiting the turn around. In capital appreciation ... Well, you might be looking with your hand extended for some time hoping some crums might come your way. With this, my family's portfolios have been built around diverisfied income generation for years with a goodly amount to the dividend paying stocks over fixed income.
    And, so it goes ...
    Old_Skeet
  • Art Cashin: Nice To See Consolidation
    Hi Ted, Junkster and others ...
    My cat is named after the late Congressman, Joseph Wilson Ervin (member 79th Congress) who answers to Blackie (an all black male cat), came up with about the same year ending forecast on the S&P 500 as your cat ... 2,125. There must be something about these feline's ability to sense things? Heck, I'd settle for 2,100 and lets move the change over to 2015.
    When further questioned ... Blackie answered, (Meow) which I take is an affimative as a hiss would have been in the negative.
    And, Junkster ... I saw in my review of Morningstar's category returns where the high yield muni's were in a bit of a strugle and I was wondering (to myself) if you had made exit of these? Now, I know. Thanks for letting us know.
    Where do you think your next action might be before year end? Or, are you going to wait for a good read and/or perhaps to 2015 before you venture into something?
    Old_Skeet
  • The Breakfast Briefing: U.S.
    FYI: The S&P 500 is up a shade more than 10% for the year. If it can hold those gains – and the market is already in Santa-Claus rally mode – then that would mark three consecutive years of double-digit percentage growth. But one look at the sector breakdown should give the bulls pause.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2014/11/13/morning-moneybeat-a-utilitarian-stock-rally/tab/print/
    Sector Tracker: Click On YTD: http://www.sectorspdr.com/sectorspdr/tools/sector-tracker
    Current Futures Looking Good: http://finviz.com/futures.ashx
  • Understanding The Proposed Bitcoin ETF: 5 Key Questions
    FYI: One of the interesting aspects of any early stage innovation is that it is incredibly difficult to distinguish a breakthrough idea from a dud. At one point Twitter was considered a mere Internet curiosity, while the Segway was expected to revolutionize urban transportation. The proposed Bitcoin ETF is a classic case in point: If successful, it could make virtual currency trading more mainstream, which would be a breakthrough development. However, that success is currently not assured.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.etftrends.com/2014/11/understanding-the-proposed-bitcoin-etf-5-key-questions/
  • Royce Loses PM
    Let's see: when George was promoted to co-CIO back in 2011 or 2012, Royce went to some pains to publicly disavow the prospect that he was engaged in "succession planning." Some might imagine that was Royce's way of saying, "don't worry, I'm not trusting the shop to this guy."
    And Mr. Royce just turned 75, one of those nice round ages where boards and others start pressing on you to get a plan.
    I wonder if there now is a succession plan and Mr. George just learned that he's not part of it, leading him to get out of Dodge?
    Curious, anyway.
    David
  • Art Cashin: Nice To See Consolidation
    Howdy @Junkster
    From Oct 15 when I posted the thread regarding the 10 yr moving below 2% and one of your replies:
    "I e-mailed heezsafe yesterday in fact, albeit had no idea it could be as soon as today. I said if he sent me his address I would send him a check right away. If that doesn't suit him I can send the check to David and he can forward it. As some of you noticed in my original and unedited post I said on a closing basis. This will be a great teaching tool for me till the day I expire about not trading or investing based on what we think but what we see. Like most, at the beginning of the year I thought rates could go only higher. Even afterwards and I made the bet I thought they had already bottomed (around 2.34 or so) and were gradually heading back up and didn't think we would see 2%. You know what (not allowed to mention it here for awhile) is also roaring as it has since I made that bet but it is soooooo overbought now. I just hope today isn't some key reversal day before the close!!! It sure is looking like a key reversal in bondland so far based on where we were early this morning and now. I believe for a true key reversal day yields would have to close up by today's close. If that happened it could well be a key reversal day in equities if they ended up closing higher on the day. I really would like to pay off this wager!!!! Funny thing about these forums when you are dealing with nameless and faceless posters. Now watch heezsafe disappear for whatever reasons and never be heard from again and not try to collect.
    I've continued to move monies into healthcare funds, ITOT and GASFX when the equity and energy sectors took a hit a few weeks. The monies have come from the IG bond areas for the most part. I have retained some HY bond funds; as well as LSBDX and PIMIX.
    Actually, alot of the market; in many areas, looks really sloppy; to me and IMO only.
    It would be difficult, for me today; to direct an investor into a particular area that looks "good".
    Up at 6am tomorrow...........pillow time now !!!
    Take care,
    Catch
  • Morningstar's Portfolio Manager Price Updating Concern ...
    Hello,
    I check my portfolio's day ending valuation around 7:15 PM, during the Nightly Business Report program through both Yahoo Finance and Morningstar's Portfolio Manager ... They were both in sync with each other.
    Happy days are here again.
    Old_Skeet
  • Pricing A Mutual Fund: The NAV Factor; (For The Newbie Fund Investor)
    FYI; A mutual fund does not have a “share price” like a stock. Rather, its price is the net asset value (NAV). NAV is calculated after adding the market value of all the securities and is then divided by the number of shares that fund investors own. Funds consider either the closing or last sale price of the securities and the value of other investments in its portfolio. Following this, fees and expenses are deducted and then divided by the total number of shares outstanding. NAV is calculated after the closing bell of the stocks exchanges.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/153848/pricing-a-mutual-fund-the-nav-factor?article_id=153848&type=BLOG
  • Art Cashin: Nice To See Consolidation
    @MJG: Write it down the S&P 500 will end up 2014 at 2125, a 15% gain.
    Regards,
    Ted
  • Art Cashin: Nice To See Consolidation
    Hi Guys,
    Not being a daily market observer, I don't have a feel for consolidation.
    But I do have a statistical feeling for how the equity market will end this year. I use the S&P 500 as an equity market proxy because of its readily accessible database.
    In early November, I update my annual projections to reflect current status. I use a Bayesian Conditional Probability approach.
    Given the current S&P 500 return, I ask what are the chances of a less than zero percent returrn at the year's closure? Given the current nice status, I further ask what is the likelihood of a return that exceeds a plus 20 % this year?
    I used historical average return and standard deviation data for the months of November and December for the reference Index.
    I forecast something like a 2 % chance that the Index will erode to a negative outcome this year. I forecast that the likelihood of a 20 % return or greater is about 15 % for the S&P 500 Index.
    I like the asymmetric tilt to these odds.
    I do this annual exercise mostly to refresh my analysis skills. Its output will guide what and when I complete my required minimum portfolio withdrawals.
    Best Wishes.
  • New PowerShares ETF Offers Broad-Based Commodities Exposure
    There's an app, whoops I mean E T F, for that.
    PureFunds launches the first cyber security ETF
    Nov 12 2014, 13:05 ET
    http://seekingalpha.com/news/2120235-purefunds-launches-the-first-cyber-security-etf