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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Bucket #1
    @JoJo26,
    Interesting. I thought the whole point of target date funds was that they were a one stop shop...
    Tweaking a little growth (staying ahead of inflation) was my thought here as well as simplicity.
    I kinda think a single target date retirement fund works well for new investors (a 30 year old owning a 2060 fund...cool), but I like the idea of re-casting this single target fund 5 years before retirement into (6) target date funds to serve as "5 year spending buckets". I also would fund a 1-3 year safe spending bucket (separate from these other buckets). Finally any additional savings would be place into long term growth investments.
    Inflation has a funny way of kicking a retirees bony butt. That 5 cent candy bar is now a buck...that 25 cent draught beer is now $5 bucks.
    Seems to make sense to me.
  • Bucket #1
    My unconventional Bucket #1 in retirement would utilize target date funds.
    Bucket #1 would arrive in 5 year increments using target date funds that are spread out over retirement. If I were retiring in 2020...Bucket #1 would be (Bucket 2020) and would be funded with 5 years of retirement spending (any growth could be looked at as additonal discretionary spending) to be spent between 2020 -2025.
    A second Bucket #1 (Bucket 2025) would be funded with a 2025 target date fund and would have 7 years (2018-2025) to "grow". It would be funded to anticipate expenses during those 5 years (2025-2030). The third bucket #1 (Bucket 2030) target date fund would have 12 years to grow...and so on.
    This approach glides a portion of your portfolio from growth to income...from stocks to bonds...in a professionally diversified and professionally managed way. I might add it's affordable and easy to understand. Anyone from you to your wife can stay the course.
    Six target dated funds would cover your retirement for 30 -35 years of retirement "bucket #1" needs.
    The rest of your available portfolio can be dedicated to long term growth and the occasional re-balancing with your buckets.
    I also see Bucket #1 being paired with an additional 1-3 years of spending in the event markets fall into an extended bear. The would very very liquid and very safe.
    Not sure how one would deal with the possibility of a "lost decade" (extended under performance of the market), especially during the spend down of assets in retirement.
    Any thoughts?
    Interesting. I thought the whole point of target date funds was that they were a one stop shop...
  • Bucket #1
    If you are a retiree and think it is prudent to have 1-5 year piece of your investments in a rather safe place for annual or emergency needs, how are you positioning this money? Suggestions or opinions appreciated.
    Bobpa...my bucket#1 is currently allocated to a series of bonds who's goal is to achieve a modest 2-3% return with reduced drama. These include: ZEOIX, SSTHX, PIFZX, SUBFX, and then a handful of muni's in the taxable account. I've got about 4 years of spending dollars in these funds.
    Being short duration, the impact of recent and future rate increases should be minimized. However, with CD's now hitting 2% for a 1 year CD, I'm going to be shifting at least a portion of these bucket#1 holdings into a CD ladder at Schwab. The bond market is getting a bit frothy for my taste.
  • Bucket #1
    My unconventional Bucket #1 in retirement would utilize target date funds.
    Bucket #1 would arrive in 5 year increments using target date funds that are spread out over retirement. If I were retiring in 2020...Bucket #1 would be renamed (Bucket 2020 using a 2020 target date fund)) and would be funded with 5 years of retirement spending (any growth could be looked at as additional discretionary spending) to be spent between (2020 -2025).
    A second Bucket #1 (Bucket 2025) would be funded with a 2025 target date fund and would have 7 years (2018-2025) to "grow". It would be funded to anticipate expenses during those 5 years (2025-2030). The third bucket #1 (Bucket 2030) target date fund would have 12 years to grow...and so on.
    This approach glides a portion of your portfolio from growth to income...from stocks to bonds...in a professionally diversified and professionally managed way. I might add it's affordable and easy to understand. Anyone from you to your wife can stay the course.
    Six target dated funds would cover your retirement for 30 -35 years of retirement "bucket #1" needs.
    The rest of your available portfolio can be dedicated to long term growth and the occasional re-balancing with your buckets.
    I also see Bucket #1 being paired with an additional 1-3 years of spending in the event markets fall into an extended bear. The would very very liquid and very safe.
    Not sure how one would deal with the possibility of a "lost decade" (extended under performance of the market), especially during the spend down of assets in retirement.
    Any thoughts?
  • Bucket #1
    If you are a retiree and think it is prudent to have 1-5 year piece of your investments in a rather safe place for annual or emergency needs, how are you positioning this money? Suggestions or opinions appreciated.
  • Larry Swedroe: What Investors Should Worry About

    Maybe @PBKCM would give us some insight on what might change the graph in their favor?
    Hi @LLJB,
    We continue to focus on our process, as outlined in David's Elevator Talk piece this month, and let results take care of themselves.
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/2018/02/elevator-talk-parker-binion-kcm-macro-trends-fund/
    As for balanced funds (and risk parity funds), holding a significant position in bonds full time during a long-term bear market for bonds is not appealing to me. I'm sure some of these funds will pull it off much better than others.
  • Art Cashin: Nasdaq Leading Us Higher, And Investors Satisfied With That...
    Art Cashin is still talking about "testing the lows" . In fact, he seems to be bemoaning that we haven't done that. It looks more likely that we'll retest those January highs. The NASDAQ has already recouped its losses. I think the Dow has 900 points to go from here.
    I have a list on my iPhone Stocks app which includes the S&P 500 and SPY, which is supposed to track it. Today the S&P was up 1.18% but SPY was only up 1.16%.
    Why doesn't SPY track the index exactly?
  • Marxism Has Cornered The Junk-Bond Market
    FYI: (This is a follow-up article.)
    In 2016, analysts at Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. offered a powerful critique of passive investing.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-02-26/passive-investing-has-brought-marxism-to-the-junk-bond-market?srnd=etfcenter
  • GLFOX Concerns?
    I'm holding, but to be fair it's only about 1% of my portfolio. The funds return in relation to risk is all that one could ask for currently. Utilities and telecom are still getting beat up based on interest rate risk but that seems to be everywhere. The folks at Lazard have shown that they know how to deal with this stuff long term. If I do decide to switch I have been looking at UTF - Cohen & Steers Infrastructure.
  • The Top 15 Cities Globally Hold $24 Trillion In Wealth: Chart
    Somewhat related: Why Big Cities Thrive, and Smaller Ones Are Being Left Behind, NYTimes, Oct 10, 2017:
    ... another cleavage dividing the haves from the have-nots across the United States: geographic inequality.
    Whether they rely on steel mills or coal mines, or a hospital or a manufacturing plant, small metropolitan areas are having a hard time adapting to economic transitions. ...
    Some of the advantages of big-city living are not hard to find. For starters, big cities have a greater variety of employers and thus more job opportunities in a richer mix of industries than do small cities, whose fortunes are often tied to those of just a small number of employers.
    Bigger cities are more productive. They are more innovative. They draw better-educated workers by offering them higher wages. They develop a richer variety of industries. It should not be surprising that they are growing faster.
    It was not always so ...
  • The Top 15 Cities Globally Hold $24 Trillion In Wealth: Chart
    FYI: Which cities are the world’s economic powerhouses, and what portion of global wealth is located in these key urban centers?
    Today’s chart pulls information from the latest report from market research firm New World Wealth, which we previously cited weeks ago when we visualized the shift in global wealth over the last decade.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.visualcapitalist.com/top-15-cities-globally-hold-24-trillion-wealth/
  • buying stock
    I've got to write faster - the post below echos some of hank's and bee's thoughts. Nevertheless, I hope it adds some value.
    circa33 is correct in so far as buying stock from another owner does not directly affect a company's coffers. But it affects a company in other ways.
    While "small potatoes" like you and me can't move a company, large investors buying stock can. This is why it's worth paying attention to how your mutual fund companies vote their proxies. You're buying stock not only as an individual but as part of a group of fund shareholders.
    In theory, if enough people sell a stock in unison, its price will be depressed. A company will have a harder time raising more cash with secondary offerings. Lenders may scrutinize a company's business prospects more closely, making it harder for a company to borrow cash.
    Realistically though, it's very hard to move stock prices this way and the direct economic impact on companies is likely small. The larger impact is on reputation and good will.
    Here's a New Yorker column somewhat supporting circa33's viewpoint, that "There is an important difference between divestment and product boycotts. "
    https://www.newyorker.com/business/currency/does-divestment-work
    One of the best case studies for how effective divestment may be the movement targeting apartheid South Africa in the 70s and 80s. To what extent direct economic pressure had an effect isn't clear. The indirect effect, of creating political action is indisputable.
    Here's one column concluding that "but the actions of U.S. investors gave the [anti-apartheid] movement both visibility and legitimacy and had a decisive economic impact."
    http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2013-12-15/business/ct-biz-1215-outside-opinion-20131215_1_sullivan-principles-south-africa-outside-opinion
  • buying stock
    Nothing wrong with the question from @circa33...hope Crash's comments doesn't chase you away from MFO.
    @hank comments reminds me of the up-swell of divesting pressure college students put on college endowments in the early 1960"s with regard to South African investments and the anti-apartheid movement.
    Social change can be brought about by paying attention to ethical investments. May not be an exacting science, but worthy of our humanness.
    aamarchives.org/
    Investment may seem agnostic, but investors often are not.
  • buying stock
    @Crash, I'm sure you aren't aware that @circa33 has been an MFO member since 2011. I enjoyed your write up. I hope circa33 overlooks your final comment.
    I believe "moral hazard" comes to mind with the big bank bailouts...maybe appropriate when it comes to the manufacturing of weapons.
    Good read on examples of moral hazard in business:
    https://investopedia.com/ask/answers/040815/what-are-some-examples-moral-hazard-business-world.asp
  • Larry Swedroe: What Investors Should Worry About
    Thanks @MikeM2,
    I’ve never been a fan of alt funds. Seems to me that about a dozen or more years ago the SEC began requiring these L/S funds to include the interest paid on money borrowed to hold short positions to be reflected in their published ER. That resulted in much higher published ERs for these guys. I’d guess that the 1.07% figure is pretty typical.
    Despite misgivings re the class of funds, I recently put some money into Oppenheimer’s QVOPX only after (1) reading the fund reports for a couple years to get a sense of how Michelle Borre runs the fund and thinks, (2) becoming really concerned about valuation of most risk assets, and (3) socking away about as much cash as I care to. I will note that QVOPX has a total ER just north of 2%. - certainly a lot less than the fund you listed above. (And, I have some load-waived money at that house.) 4.18%? Outrageous!
    The fund has had a really unimpressive record for several years, and so I’m not recommending it (or any alts). One thing about Oppenheimer that troubles me is their funds seem more highly dependent on individual managers than most other companies. So, I’d be loath to stick with this fund if manager were to leave. Last time I checked, it was having a decent year compared to another conservative hybrid I own (and benchmark against), TRRIX.
  • Larry Swedroe: What Investors Should Worry About
    Nevermind, I just found the expenses etc. I just threw up in my mouth. It makes AQR funds and PCI/PDI look like a bargain.
    LENDX
    Annual Fund Operating Expenses
    (as a percentage of net assets attributable to the Shares)
    Management Fees ............................................................... 1.50%
    Interest Payments on Borrowed Funds(1) ............................................. 1.07%
    Service Fees ................................................................... 0.10%
    Other Expenses(2)
    Loan Servicing Fees ......................................................... 0.82%
    All Other Expenses .......................................................... 0.95%
    Total Other Expenses ............................................................ 1.77%
    Acquired Fund Fees and Expenses .................................................. 0.01%
    Total Annual Fund Operating Expenses .............................................. 4.45%
    (Fee Waiver and/or Expense Reimbursement)/Recoupment(3) ............................. (0.27)%
    Total Annual Fund Operating Expenses After (Fee Waiver/Expense Reimbursement)/
    Recoupment ................................................................... 4.18%
  • Private Equity: Overvalued And Overrated?
    Hi @bee,
    Actually, no I have not given much thought to buying stocks in the companies the fund holds. The turnover for the fund is listed at about 30%. So, in holding an average of 32 positions means they sell on average about ten positions per year and buy about ten more. This, thus far has created a good income stream in the form of fund distributions from their profits. In another year or so with the payouts I have received and anticipate receiving if the fund share price went to zero I would not have lost capital as I will have received in payouts a sum equal to what I have invested. That amounts to a distribution roll of eight to ten years. You want find that in real estate.
    For me, based on my cost basis and distribution roll for Income Fund of America was 12 years to recoop my capital and for Franklin Income Fund it was about thirteen years. Folks, for what these funds have paid out if their value went to zero I'd be well ahead based upon the number of years I have owned them.
    So ... How can I go wrong with that?
  • Private Equity: Overvalued And Overrated?
    Hi @Mark,
    Actually my annual payout including dividends, interest and capital gains distributions has averaged since I have owned the fund 12.9% based upon my cost basis. My total return per share has an averaged annual return of 15.4%. In addition, I am finding that the pent up unrealized capital gains within the fund are just under 20%. So if you buy now you'll be buying your distribution, so-to-speak.
    That's one of the reasons I have been building cash for the past couple years. Stock are currently richly priced by my standards. And, if you pay too much your returns will be thin. That's one of the reasons I like to buy the downdrafts. While the weak investors are selling I'm putting my buying britches on as I did when I purchased this fund.
    Thus far my buying strategy has worked well for me.