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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • The Closing Bell: Dow, S&P 500 Set Records
    FYI: U.S. stocks surged Friday, with the Dow hitting an intraday record, joining a rally in Asian and European shares that was spurred by the Bank of Japan ’s decision to unexpectedly expand its stimulus measures.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://online.wsj.com/articles/u-s-stock-futures-surge-after-boj-eases-policy-1414757940
    Markets At A Glance: http://markets.wsj.com/us
  • WisdomTree
    Declared a quarterly dividend and the stock is up 23%. I was a little surprised that they did not pay dividend before, considering their philosphy of investing in companies paying dividends :-)
    http://ir.wisdomtree.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=879584
  • Junk Bond Bulls Outlast October Swoon As Losses Wiped Out
    True. But, most HY, active managed funds remain flat/neutral at this time for pricing.
    If the pricing remains the same going forward for a sustained period, an investor may still find a yield range of 5-6%. The capital appreciation may not be in place as during the past several years.
    Today (with the crazy upward moves in global equity markets) may provide some more clues for the HY sector. Although one should consider that if the flows to equities remains strong, some of these monies may not travel the HY road right now.
    Take care,
    Catch
  • Retirement Isn't A Pipe Dream--And Here's How To Make It Happen
    FYI: The idea of retirement is scary to many, especially those without a traditional pension. But at last week's Bogleheads meeting -- which gathered 250 fans of Jack Bogle, founder of low-cost index-fund-focused mutual fund company Vanguard -- investors focused on how to make it to retirement.
    Retirement is possible, said the consensus. Not easy, but possible. Here's advice from 11 mutual fund managers, authors, financial advisors and ordinary people about how you can save enough to quit.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.thestreet.com/print/story/12933449.html
  • Gold Slumps, Tests 1,200 Level
    A link to the Greenspan story mentioned by rjb112
    http://www.cnbc.com/id/102136750
    Very Interesting
  • Exploring Gold Miners, Emerging-Market Stocks
    Good points bee, fundalarm, scott.
    I just posted this in another thread. Wonder if anyone has a comment:
    How is anyone going to be a successful investor in gold?
    Gold peaked at $875/ounce in January 1980. So there was a major run up till that point and people did extremely well.
    Then it went down in value for 21 years, losing somewhere around 65% on a nominal basis, and probably lost around 90% if you take inflation into account.
    Then it had a major run up from about 2001 thru 2012, peaking around $1900. Now it's back to $1200.
    MFOers, How is anyone supposed to invest in this asset class successfully?
    By the way, Alan Greenspan is now saying that it would be good to own gold now!
  • Gold Slumps, Tests 1,200 Level
    How is anyone going to be a successful investor in gold?
    Gold peaked at $875/ounce in January 1980. So there was a major run up till that point and people did extremely well.
    Then it went down in value for 21 years, losing somewhere around 65% on a nominal basis, and probably lost around 90% if you take inflation into account.
    Then it had a major run up from about 2001 thru 2012, peaking around $1900. Now it's back to $1200.
    MFOers, How is anyone supposed to invest in this asset class successfully?
    By the way, Alan Greenspan is now saying that it would be good to own gold now!
  • Sears Has a Deal to Offer Its Shareholders
    Oy vey. So much financial engineering. So much absurdity. If Fairholme and Lampert love Sears so much, take the thing private already and stop all the nonsense. Short sellers will be back because they know Christmas isn't going to be any better because there's no real interest in improving the underlying business whatsoever. And the bonds they're offering are unsecured? Gee, where can I sign up to get unsecured bonds from a retailer in bad shape?
    So dismaying, can't just run a solid business today, have to engage in this sort of nonsense - which inevitably gets bigger and more utterly ridiculous the weaker the underlying business becomes.
    http://seekingalpha.com/article/2601325-as-the-sears-canada-rights-approach-zero-a-risk-emerges
  • Sears Has a Deal to Offer Its Shareholders
    Thanks Maurice,
    I will reread again after a few 5 O'clockers...
  • Exploring Gold Miners, Emerging-Market Stocks
    VGPMX testing its 2008 low at today's close.
    Article presents a half truth with this quote:
    "The mining stocks benefit from leverage to the metal. As a result, a 2% allocation to precious-metals equities equates to a roughly 5% allocation to bullion"
    Doesn't leverage also work in the opposing direction?
    My quote would read something like:
    "The mining stocks are equally harmed as benefited from leverage to the metal. A PM equity investor has had to endure roughly 2.5 times the volatility compared to bullion"
    A $10K investment in VGPMX in 2004 would have grown to $36K by 2008, a 260% gain. Over that same four year period GLD rose to $21.7K or roughly 117%. (The authors claim) of PM equities exhibited beneficial leverage over this timeframe is true, but by 2009 VGPMX valuation fell from its $36k high to a low of $9K, a drop of about 75%. During that same time period GLD's valuation went from $21.7K to $15.8K, a drop of about 25%.
    This same dynamic has repeated itself over the last 3.5 years where GLD dropped roughly 33% from its high in April of 2011 while VGPMX dropped close to 66%.
    Leverage happens in both directions and often cuts fast and hard on the downside.
    image
  • Portfolio Review - Your comments/suggestions
    Fundalarm,
    Responding to all of you separately so that I won't end up with a big message.
    I sold out all my bond funds a while ago and in cash now. Sorry, I did not provide that info, and I should have done that.
    Burnt my fingers in 2000-02 downturn by investing in stocks, and converted to funds completely from 2005-06 (transition period). I am regular at M* forums since 2005 and at fundalarm/MFO from 2006. What I am saying is I am not a novice investor to follow the crowd. I invested in CGMFX as a speculative play, after its putrified performance, and after all the performance chasers left. Since that fund like feast or famine, I stayed in it for 3 years before I quite no loss or no gain.
    I am of same age as you.
    Have not checked portfolio in X-ray in the recent past but I do that on frequient basis, being a regular visitor of M*. I play around with their tool once in a while. This portfolio is purely a retirement one. Too many funds because these are across 4 accounts of ours. I have thought about consolidating them into two but V'rd does not offer all the funds that I want, which are avaiable in TDA. For example, Artisan funds.
    Finally, close to 75% of the funds are in solid core funds (VDIGX, FPACX, VHGEX, ARTKX, ARTGX, etc.). Obviously Grandeur peak and other EM fund are not part of that core.
  • Portfolio Review - Your comments/suggestions
    Heezsafe,
    Actually there are three gloabl funds. I already spoke about VHGEX.
    Bought GPGOX based on what I read about the managers, not disappoined so far, up 50% since I bought. However, I understand it is a growthy fund and we are in bull market. Bought ARTGX, as I was in ARTKX from 2006 and very happy with the management.
    Invested in VGSTX due to realignment of my portfolio. I have to eliminate sooner than later.
  • Fallen Angels Income Fund (FAINX)
    Taking a cursory glance at this fund's basic profile numbers on the M* quote page, I see several things:
    (1) once again, M* has placed FAINX in the wrong category, an exercise that should be so straightforward in this case that it would be considered a simpler work problem on a Cave Man IQ test;
    Call me Cro-Magnon, but I don't see the obvious misclassification as a Moderate Allocation fund. It seems neither does Lipper, who calls it a "Mixed-Asset Target Alloc Moderate Fund". (Lipper generally rates it higher than M* - 4's, except for tax efficiency (5) and cost (1, obviously).
    This may help, it's Lipper's discussion of its categories, as well as how they align with M*'s:
    http://www.lipperweb.com/docs/Research/Fiduciary/2009_02_Fund Classification Roadmap.pdf
    (for completeness, here's M*'s descriptions of its categories: http://www.morningstar.com/InvGlossary/morningstar_category.aspx)
    p. 13 describes Lipper's Mixed Asset target allocation funds. Table 2 shows how its mixed asset target allocation moderate funds line up with M*'s moderate allocation:

    Asset Class Lipper M* FAINX
    Equity 40-60% 50-70% 71%
    Fixed Inc/Cash 40-60% 30-50% 28%
    M* doesn't look at instantaneous snapshots of a fund (because there can be transient fluctuations), rather a fund's portfolio over the past few reports (not sure how far the lookback period goes). For the fund's first three years, M* classified the fund as conservative allocation. I'm inferring from the fact that the very initial classification (before a portfolio was published) was moderate allocation, M* looked at the actual portfolio and said that it was more conservative than the prospectus suggested.
    Over time, that has shifted. It might be trending toward aggressive allocation, but doesn't seem to have gotten there yet.
    Maybe I need to check with a Neanderthal - though that could turn out to be a dead end.
  • Akre Focus conference call today, 4:00 Eastern
    For those interested, I just got word of the impending Akre call. It's trick-or-treat day here so I'll be dashing about prepping the house for that so I won't be able to listen in but I thought some of you might enjoy being there.
    David
    AKRE FOCUS FUND MANAGERS WILL HOLD INVESTOR CALL THIS THURSDAY, OCTOBER 30th
    Middleburg, VA-based Akre Capital Management will hold a conference call with portfolio co-managers of the Akre Focus Fund (AKREX) tomorrow, October 30, at 4:00 pm EDT to update investors on the fund’s portfolio. After initial remarks, there will be a Q&A session with the investment team, including chief investment officer Chuck Akre, and partners Tom Saberhagen, John Neff and Chris Cerrone.
    To join the conference call:
    Dial In: (877) 509-7719
    Conference ID: 98245829
    To submit a question for the Q&A session in advance, please email your questions to [email protected] no later than 5:00 pm EST on Wednesday, October 29.
    Additionally, the firm now has some new and interesting material available on the new web site about the investment process, the team’s thought process and some of the issues they focus on -- here is the link to that page -- http://www.akrecapital.com/our-thinking/
  • Gold Slumps, Tests 1,200 Level
    FYI: Gold prices slid toward 2014′s lows on Thursday in the wake of the Federal Reserve’s move to curtail its monthly bond-buying program.
    Gold futures tumbled 1.9% to $1,201.90 a troy ounce recently, right near its psychologically significant $1,200 mark. Gold briefly dipped below that level earlier in October for the first time in 2014.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://blogs.barrons.com/focusonfunds/2014/10/30/gold-slumps-tests-1200-level/tab/print/
    GLD’s Fall From Grace: http://awealthofcommonsense.com/shine-gld/
    Gold=15 Barrels Of Oil: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-10-29/gold-equals-15-barrels-of-oil-in-bearish-sign-for-bullion.html
  • Portfolio Review - Your comments/suggestions
    @mrc70:
    - what's your age?
    - have you done a look through (X-ray or similar) for the asset classes?
    - does this portfolio serve as your retirement portfolio or you have other goals for the moneys?
    below comments are very high level.
    the single and most important decision in investing is asset allocation. it looks like you're around100% equities with some tiny and emerging ones to scale your average volatility to may be twice that of the S&P500. and you don't have any duration to offset it.
    if you are in your 20s or 30s and are very risk tolerant, that might work, but judging by a selection of funds that are new and introduced here at MFO, you're subject to the groupthink and will be buying most of the stuff profiled/popular here and then getting rid of it should volatility rise on the downside (the upside is usually taken as granted).
    i am not commenting on individual positions, because @my tender age of 45, i would never have 100% of my money in a portfolio like this. or, scratch that, with a guaranteed government or private pension, i might load on equities -- but that is not a choice in my lifetime.
    best of luck.
    PS there are of course other methods to wealth: to find AAPL or FB while these are still in the garage stage; bet all your chips on the tightly controlled momentum play (a la Junkster); etc.
  • Arbitrage Funds Dispels 7 Myths Of Liquid Alternatives
    FYI: Assets under management in liquid alternative mutual funds have quintupled since 2008, reaching a total of $150 billion as of June 2014. The number of ’40 Act funds pursuing alternative strategies has also multiplied fivefold in that time, and now totals more than 450. As liquid alts are the fastest growing category in the investment world, many investors are understandably skeptical – the growth story seems too good to be true. But many of the common complaints against liquid alts are based in myth, as revealed by the Arbitrage Funds’ new report, 7 Myths About Liquid Alternative Mutual Funds.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://dailyalts.com/arbitrage-funds-dispels-7-myths-liquid-alternatives/