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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • SEC drops swing pricing proposal for mutual funds
    I could be imagining but I thought the new holdings are available to us after 60 days (30 for the fund + 30 after for the SEC) of month end. If so, that is pretty useless information. I would want the info to be made available within 15 days after the month end. Makes no sense to make it more difficult for retails clients to gain info than accredited investors through Forms 13Fs.
    To manage the SEC load, and make the info available more timely for all other ETFs and OEFs investors, SEC should not have imposed the changes on transparent ETFs.
    This SEC's desire for power grab always seems to override the need to advocate for retail investors.
  • SEC drops swing pricing proposal for mutual funds
    New Rules Press Release,
    https://www.sec.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2024-110
    New Rules Fact Sheet,
    https://www.sec.gov/files/ic-35308-fact-sheet.pdf
    My reading is that N-PORT filing of month-end holdings will be within 30 days, but those filings will be made public after 60 days of the month-end. So, there will be 2 month lag in public reporting of month-end holdings.
  • US family finances as of 2y ago
    FD1000,
    Wow, there's lots to unpack in your commentary!
    I'll just comment on two topics.
    "Obamacare had a huge affect long-term."
    You're correct that "Obamacare" had huge long-term effects:
    1) More than 16 million Americans obtained coverage within five years' passage of Obamacare.
    2) People with preexisting conditions can't he denied health insurance.
    3) Prescription drug costs are more affordable for many Medicare participants.
    4) More screenings and preventative services are covered with low copays or deductibles.
    5) Insurance companies can no longer set lifetime limits for coverage.
    "After the embarrassing exit from Afghanistan, Putin realized that Biden is a weak pres and why he invaded Ukraine."

    Both Trump & Biden were eager to withdraw US troops from Afghanistan.
    Trump struck a deal for withdrawal by May 1, 2021.
    Biden inherited this deal but delayed the withdrawal date.
    The withdrawal was problematic, to say the least,
    but to blame this entirely on Biden is disingenuous.
    https://www.factcheck.org/2021/08/timeline-of-u-s-withdrawal-from-afghanistan/
    Edit/Add:
    "On the first week of Biden's presidency, "Biden’s orders direct the secretary of the Interior Department
    to halt new oil and natural gas leases on public lands and waters,
    and begin a thorough review of existing permits for fossil fuel development.
    Do you think the above has nothing to do why oil started to go up?
    Oil is a huge resource in our economy, don't you think it increased inflation?"

    Many different factors can influence oil prices.
    You may want to contemplate potential causes before rushing to judgement and playing the "blame game."
    https://usafacts.org/articles/what-impacts-the-price-of-oil/
  • The Thrilling 36 Funds
    I respectfully disagree.
    Kinnel wrote: "purely a screen; I don’t make any additions or subtractions." He says these are "simple, strict screens." Either one can access a particular share class or one can't.
    The hoops one must jump through don't render a share class inaccessible. The only exception he makes to strict adherence to his rules is that he excludes actively managed funds costing under 10 basis points if you must pay a fee to access them.
    Put another way, you might have to pay a small ransom to use a platform necessary to access a share class costing 20 basis points. But that doesn't matter. All that matters are those 20 basis points, not the total cost of access.
    Likewise, the fact that you might have to have a small fortune in other funds in order to invest a "mere" $50K in a share class doesn't matter. All that matters is that $50K minimum, not the total size of your portfolio.
  • The Thrilling 36 Funds
    PRWCX didn't make the cut because its cost isn't much below average. But TRAIX's is, and it is available to individual Summit Preferred Services customers at T. Rowe Price with a $50K min. ("Must be a share class accessible to individual investors with a minimum investment of no greater than $50,000.")
    .
    Summit Preferred requires $500,000 minimum invested overall. You can split hairs, but the cheapest way for any individual investor to access TRAIX is to hold a $500,000 minimum investment in T. Rowe Price investment accounts, which violates the purpose of the screen, certainly in spirit if not in letter.
  • US family finances as of 2y ago
    No need to be extreme. The pres in office can have a big affect on many things.
    Obamacare had a huge affect long-term. IMO, it was one of the worst legislation. I priced what healthcare would cost me and my wife prior to Medicare.
    Before Obamacare it was $400 monthly with a $3K deductible.
    After Obamacare it was $1200-1300 monthly with a $5-6K deductible. That was years ago. I know several people who pay now about $1000 per person and 7-9K deductible.
    (link) On the first week of Biden's presidency, "Biden’s orders direct the secretary of the Interior Department to halt new oil and natural gas leases on public lands and waters, and begin a thorough review of existing permits for fossil fuel development.
    Do you think the above has nothing to do why oil started to go up? Oil is a huge resource in our economy, don't you think it increased inflation?
    After the embarrassing exit from Afghanistan, Putin realized that Biden is a weak pres and why he invaded Ukraine. He also did on Obama watch but not during Trump.
    How much money does the US allocate to Ukraine? easy over $100 billion.
    Why did 4 Arab countries sign a peace agreement with Israel during Trump, which is the first time ever, while the Middle East is on fire now?
    When Harris said she wants price control, don't you think it would affect us in a big way?
    So yes, several presidents are more influential than others.
  • Latest Memo From Howard Marks
    @hank "Marks is big on buying at a discount and holding long term."
    FD: Millions tried the above while only a small % have done, Buffett. I have read his articles for a couple years, but he never helped me with my trading which is mostly in bond funds because....read what I said above, generalities and shades of gray.
    Quotes from the article:
    What this means is that in good times, investors obsess about the positives, ignore the negatives, and interpret things favorably. Then, when the pendulum swings, they do the opposite, with dramatic effects.
    The human brain is wired to ignore or reject incoming data that is at odds with prior beliefs, and investors are particularly good at this.
    Further complicating things in terms of rational analysis is the fact that most developments in the investment world can be interpreted both positively and negatively, depending on the prevailing mood.
    Rarely do investors realize that (a) there can be a limit to the run of good news or (b) an upswing can be so strong as to be excessive, rendering a downswing inevitable. (FD; SPY,QQQ have been going strong for 15 years).
    In short, sometimes the things that have gone up the most should be expected to continue to go up the most, and sometimes the things that have gone up the least should be expected to go up the most.
    The above is meaningless unless you mention the specifics.
    At least the best nugget by Buffet and Bogle = buy the SP500 for accumulators and go sleep for decades.
  • Employees overworked at Nvidia - Bloomberg
    Working hard and long hours in IT helps you in the long run...or...you can just be lazy and cry later why you didn't make the big bucks.
    Of course, you can be lucky and do well.
    I decided after about 12 years that I would never work more than 40-45 per week in IT and I did it at over 90-95%.
    All my efforts went to investing...and it worked.
  • Employees overworked at Nvidia - Bloomberg
    Currently, more people from other Mag 5 are looking to work at Nvidia than Nvidia employees looking to work at other Mag 5.
  • Any glaring risks in a fund like LQDH?
    The FOMC started raising rates in 3/1/22, so here is the run from 3/1/22 from TestFol for LQD, LQDH, m-mkt VMFXX, ultra-ST ICSH. LQDH has definitely outperformed LQD, as expected due to rate-hedging. LQDH kept pace with VMFXX and ICSH until 4/30/23, but then outperformed subsequently. When the rates start to go down, LQD should shine - why hedge bond funds when rates are falling?
    LINK
  • Any glaring risks in a fund like LQDH?
    Looking at M* for the past several months, LQD has outperformed LQDH for each of the monthly periods. One might have expected better from LQDH in anticipation of rate cuts and their swaps, etc. The portfolio indicates 95% of the portfolio is LQD. Am I correct with this and what you see?
    You noted:
    M* shows LQDH returning north of 3% annually over the past 10 years. That’s about double what money market funds achieved.
    MMKT's were paying only about .01% yields for many years. As of April, 2022 the Fido MMKT's were paying .11% yield. This is when the move up to the current yields began. So, comparing to 10 years backwards against a MMKT yield 'is not valid'.
    6 month CHART of the two.
  • Any glaring risks in a fund like LQDH?
    I don't see any direct short Treasury positions.
    Basically, it holds corporate LQD & tons of rate-swaps plus supporting cash. Duration is very low. So, the overall effect is m-mkt like returns out of intermediate-term bonds overlaid with derivatives. But the current yield is well below VMFXX, so, what's the point?
    I’m not sure that’s a fair comparison, With the present inverted yield curve money market funds should yield better than longer dated bonds. Were yield the only factor nobody would invest in longer dated bonds today. Any (perceived) advantage would accrue to someone who wanted to own longer term investment grade bonds for diversification and who thought the inverted curve will return to normal some day.
    * Isn’t the ultra low “effective” duration (0.15 years) really just a reflection of the hedging? Duno. Just trying to learn.
    Here’s a link to Blackrock / LQDH with some performance data. Seems to have outdistanced money market funds in recent years. - M* shows LQDH returning north of 3% annually over the past 10 years. That’s about double what money market funds achieved.
    Appreciate the comments from @yogibearbull
  • US family finances as of 2y ago
    @FD1000
    reading comp, man, reading comp (study my hed)
    2022 is 2y ago
    As for:
    >> Since 1980, no other president except Trump has achieved above 10% real wage growth.
    cite?
    Are you thinking fig 3 of this supports your assertion?
    https://www.aei.org/articles/have-wages-stagnated-for-decades-in-the-us/
    An answer may lie in this thicket; search for "real wage":
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_policy_of_the_Donald_Trump_administration
    Also delve these:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_policy_of_the_Donald_Trump_administration
    https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2022/0215
    Will be interested in your evidence. Above 10%, huh.
  • US family finances as of 2y ago
    First, it's 3 years, not 2 years.
    Second, looks to me they started in 2019, not showing the peak of 2020. If you look at this chart(https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q)
    Trump started in Q1/2017 and by Q2/2020, real wages after inflation grew up from 355 to 393. That is 10.7% real growth. Then covid hit, and since Q2/2020, it went from 393 back to 368, this is a decline of 6.4%,
    2 more observations:
    1) From Q4/1099 to Q1/2017 = 18 years, it grew from 335 to 355 = 5.9%
    2) Since 1980, no other president except Trump has achieved above 10% real wage growth.
  • GMO: five new ETFs in the pipeline
    QLTY is 8% MSFT 3-4% UNH META AMZN APPL
    PE close to SP500 P/B higher than SP500; does not seem a value fund.
    I think this position paper is laying the groundwork for their Value ETFs
  • Preparing your Portfolio for Rate Cuts

    A one year CHART for the major home builders of PULTE, D.R. HORTON, LENNAR, TOLL BROS. AND NVR; in this order in the chart.
    One year CHART of 3 widely traded home builders ETF's.
    In opinion: these stocks and sometimes the ETF's receive a fair amount of action from hedge funds and other volume traders. It appears that 'options trading' is also available for the ETF's.
    Remain curious,
    Catch
  • Preparing your Portfolio for Rate Cuts
    RE in general has had a good year.
    VNQ
    VGSIX
    Even FRIFX has moved up 10%ish
    The sector's raw performance is good. A rising tide lifted all boats. Relatively speaking, not so impressive.
    YTD, S&P 500 RE is the third worst (out of 11) performing sectors. The worst sector (Consumer Discretionary) is up over 6% YTD. We won't mention Energy - second worst YTD, and worst by a long shot over the past year, barely in positive territory.
    https://digital.fidelity.com/prgw/digital/research/sector
  • Preparing your Portfolio for Rate Cuts
    I don't pay too much attention to sectors, so take the following as questions and observations from someone who knows just enough to be dangerous:
    Do homebuilders like Pulte (a name I do recognize from having lived in suburbs) take out short term loans to purchase building materials? The reason for the question is that interest rates for mortgages don't move in tandem with short term rates. In this industry each rate can have an impact.
    In looking at companies like BLDR, are you thinking about remodeling or new home construction, or both? I believe that the stock of existing homes has been held down by high mortgage rates - people are reluctant to walk away from low rates they locked in years ago. So many have chosen to make improvements rather than move. When (if) mortgage rates drop significantly, this may change and affect who is buying building materials.
    It could also affect the market for new homes, since they'll now be competing with more existing homes than before (acknowledging that there is still an overall housing shortage).
    The construction industry seems (from my 30,000 foot vantage point where I rarely look out the window) to be bad at dealing with market cycles. In good times, they build on spec. Though often by the time the construction is put on the market, demand has cooled.
    I'm guessing that you're referring to this article:
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/buy-dr-horton-stock-price-pick-72f0f4e1
    (Thank you Google and public libraries; I got free access both ways)
    It presents a nice, level headed picture of a well run company. As to the industry prospects, it's looking more than two years out. "Fed governors see short-term rates falling by about roughly two percentage points over the coming couple of years". However, over the next year+, both Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association are seeing rates drop by just over 1/2%, from 6.46% (8/22/24 actual) to 5.9% (Q4 2025).
    https://finance.yahoo.com/personal-finance/when-will-mortgage-rates-go-down-164144910.html
    Certainly the prospects for the industry look better now than they have been for awhile (perhaps excepting building materials - lumber prices soared during the pandemic as people spent money on home improvements). How much better, and how much is already priced in, I have no idea.
  • MDP Low Volatility Fund will be liquidated
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1437249/000158064224004810/mdp_497.htm
    497 1 mdp_497.htm 497
    MDP LOW VOLATILITY FUND
    Class A Shares - MDPMX
    Class I Shares – MDPLX
    Supplement dated August 26, 2024 to Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information dated May 31, 2024
    The Board of Trustees of Valued Advisers Trust (the “Board”) authorized an orderly liquidation of the MDP Low Volatility Fund (the “Fund”), a series of Valued Advisers Trust. The Board determined on August 23, 2024 that closing and liquidating the Fund was in the best interests of the Fund and the Fund’s shareholders.
    The Fund’s investment adviser informed the Board of its view that it no longer is economically feasible to continue managing the Fund because of the Fund’s small size and the difficulty encountered in attracting assets.
    The Fund is no longer accepting purchase orders for its shares, and it will close effective as of September 24, 2024 (“Closing Date”). Shareholders may redeem Fund shares at any time prior to this Closing Date. Procedures for redeeming your account, including reinvested distributions, are contained in the section “How to Redeem Shares” in the Fund’s Prospectus. Any shareholders that have not redeemed their shares of the Fund prior to the Closing Date will have their shares automatically redeemed as of that date, with proceeds being sent to the address of record. If your Fund shares were purchased through a broker-dealer or other financial intermediary and are held in a brokerage or other investment account, redemption proceeds may be forwarded by the Fund directly to the broker-dealer or other financial intermediary for deposit into your brokerage or other investment account.
    The Fund is no longer pursuing its investment objective. All holdings in the Fund’s portfolio are being liquidated, and the proceeds will be invested in money market instruments or held in cash. Shareholders may continue to reinvest dividends and distributions in the Fund or redeem their shares until the Closing Date. Any capital gains will be distributed as soon as practicable to shareholders and reinvested in additional Fund shares, unless you have requested payment in cash.
    IMPORTANT INFORMATION FOR RETIREMENT PLAN INVESTORS
    If you are a retirement plan investor, you should consult your tax adviser regarding the consequences of a redemption of Fund shares. If you receive a distribution from an Individual Retirement Account (IRA) or a Simplified Employee Pension (SEP) IRA, you must roll the proceeds into another IRA within 60 days of the date of the distribution to avoid having to include the distribution in your taxable income for the year. If you are the trustee of a qualified retirement plan or the custodian of a 403(b)(7) custodian account (tax-sheltered account) or a Keogh account, you may reinvest the proceeds in any way permitted by its governing instrument.
    For additional information regarding the liquidation, shareholders of the Fund may call (833) 914-3344.
    You should read this Supplement in conjunction with the Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information, each dated May 31, 2024, which provide information that you should know before investing in the Fund and should be retained for future reference. These documents are available upon request and without charge by calling the Fund at (833) 914-3344.
    PLEASE RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT FOR FUTURE REFERENCE
  • Latest Memo From Howard Marks
    Thanks @Mark. Howard is the only market pundit I pay attention too. Some, I’m afraid, are trying to generate clients, build name recognition or foster trading business for their firms. Others may be trying to boost prices of what they already own, perhaps with an eye to selling - although ”pump & dump” is (I believe) illegal. In the case of media, it’s all about keeping eyeballs glued to the screen by creating fear, euphoria or suspense. “Breaking News” is indeed broken. And then there’s the analysts, some of whom were still in HS when the 2007 bubble burst and in diapers back in ‘98-2000 at the height of the tech mania.
    I’ll go further. When I see someone drunk up in first class on my flight, creating a ruckus, abusing the cabin crew-member who refuses them another drink - and then a week later see them representing a big Wall Street investment firm on Bloomberg TV touting certain stocks or sectors … I’m cautioned to stay far away!
    I’ve borrowed a cartoon from @Mark’s linked article.
    image