And also, as I posted on yogi's Death Cross thread:
Shortly after Fri's close CNBC's Mike Santoli did a great S&P chart piece on what he called "Dark Crosses" (Death Crosses to many) including a look back at two prior, similar crosses. He showed the time it took to get back to Golden Crosses, and the depths to which the S&P dropped in between the two crosses. It does not appear that video is available (yet?) but well worth the time if/when it is located.
With all due respect to those NOT inclined to use T/A, in my 45 years of investing, I've found that NOT using T/A during times like these is akin to flying blind. Currently, T/A has allowed me to completely remove emotion, develop a strategy for re-deployment of proceeds from our March 31 sales of 50% of our stocks, and simply connect the dots, so to speak. YMMV.

Advocating teaching first graders how to accessorize their steaks! Just wait until the North American Vegetarian Society gets wind of this.
For educational purposes only (note blue label):

Cramer on what to own in this dicey tariff-environment.
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/11/jim-cramer-explains-the-best-way-to-pick-stocks-right-now.html
Look for companies with not much business exposure overseas, he says. But here's my confirmation bias at work... What do you think? ... So, BLX does zero business in the US. It's all Latam and Caribbean. The bank was created by governments in the region in the '70s as a semi-official tool to be employed by the Treasuries of those countries. BLX also cooperates in commercial deals, too. One recent event I saw involved collaboration with Canada's Scotiabank to do a deal down south. Those other countries are not tariff-ing each other. And I recall seeing a reference in the past day or two about Panama's gummint working with the US to diminish China's influence around the Canal. (BLX HQ is in Panama City.)
https://bladex.com/en

Further reputational damage: the Danes. Canadians, as we all already know, are pissed off, too. More than likely, that is the case in a great many places. Canadians are not buying American, refusing to travel and spend money here. I wonder if Doug Ford instituted his tariffs out of Ontario on electricity generated there and sold to NY, MI and MN?
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/11/danish-shoppers-boycott-us-products-as-greenland-trade-tensions-escalate.html

It pleases his daddy, Vlad. Options? I'm out of Junk. Don't like to trade often. Hiding in MMkt, and added to WCPNX. But look what happened today: Junk UP, I.G. DOWN. Harumph. My own portfolio's yield is down from over 4% to a bit over 2%. Two stocks give me quarterlies. 42% stocks, 31 bonds, but now up to 25% cash in the portfolio. I'd rather bleed slower than faster, and who knows what wild pretext will be employed from out of the WH so that Orange can declare a "win" re: tariffs.

I'm looking for tips on how to invest during a trade war. This isn't your average cyclical market bummer, or a black swan like COVID. I'm not saying it's different this time. But I wasn't around for Smoot-Hawley, the McKinley Tariff, or The Tariff of Abominations. I suspect people were stuffing their mattresses with bills and burying specie in the back yard. If Tariff Theater goes on long enough, I think the question will become what it will take to get people back in the market.

Here’s one viewpoint I stumbled across tonight:
Janus Henderson fund manager says investors should cut exposure to stocks as recession looms
Opinions are varied. But this guy’s is probably as good as the next guy’s if you’re looking for opinions. Personally I’ve done a lot of buying and selling the past 10 days as various assets swooned and soared. Won some. Lost some. Allocation to stocks is a few percentage points higher now than 2 weeks ago. I’m weighted heavily towards resources / real assets and away from the big S&P names. Also weighted towards non-U.S.
Smoot-Hawley precipitated the Great Depression. My parents were kids at the time. I grew up hearing horrible stories of people without food or heat in their homes and how depressed folks were. How hopeless life seemed with so few jobs and meager pay if you could find work. Farmers dumping gallons of milk and destroying crops because nobody could afford to buy it from them. If we get to that point again all bets are off. But I don’t think our society would cope as well as folks did in the 30s.

Friday USD dollar fell against other major currencies and yields of 10 and 30 years Treasuy notes rose. Just about all US bonds fell accordingly. Excerpt from the enclosed articles:

The sudden loss of confidence has been stark in the US Treasury market, widely considered to be the most important in the world because investors normally use it as the “risk free” benchmark to determine the price of every other financial asset.
In the sharpest weekly move since 1982, the yield – in effect the interest rate – on 30-year US government bonds rose from about 4.4% to 4.8%. The yield on 10-year bonds has also risen.

https://theguardian.com/business/2025/apr/11/the-damage-is-done-trumps-tariffs-put-the-dollars-global-reserve-status-at-risk
What are the options for income investors?

Inflation tends to drag many assets “higher” in nominal terms. I expect a lot of it down the road (next 3-5 years). The U of M sentiment survey released today shows consumers have raised their inflation expectations -
”Respondents also said they were bracing for prices to surge 6.7% in the year ahead.” (WSJ)
WABC is right that valuations are high. As investors we need to be selective. FWIW, here’s 20 low P/E stocks. That said, anything can happen over the next several months - so there may be / probably will be better times to buy.
Also - Lewis Braham authored a Barron’s article earlier this week highlighting funds that might do well under current “chaotic” conditions. Worth a look.
Re: ”Never met a rich chartist.” Good one!

Anytime I'm alive feels good to me. I can listen to the Ramones on golden oldies shows. :)
IIRC the low value of the S&P was due to inflation. By August of 1982 the inflation rate had dropped from around 8.4 in January to 5.9 in August. So the bond market was off to the start of its own bull market.

Nice 35 year graph of NYSE UpVol / DownVol.
https://ibb.co/S1BPJMn

Death-cross is when the 50-dMA crosses the 200-dMA in a down move.
Eyeballing StockCharts 50-dMA and 200-dMA trends, the Death-Crosses may be coming soon:
Nasdaq Comp/ONEQ - 2 weeks?
Nasdaq 100/QQQ - 3 weeks?
SP500/VOO - 4 weeks?
R2000/IWM - already on 3/24/25 (also, in the bear territory)
DJ Transports - already on 3/18/25

Well, we are on an Internet time!
Nasdaq Comp - happened on 4/8/25
Nasdaq 100 - almost there
SP500 - almost there

"The author can't guarantee how long it would take to come back to even or how deep the markets would fall."
Of course not, nobody can.
"Where is the catch in the above? Smart authors look back in history and play with their numbers to make a statement to fit their narrative. Why 50? Why not 45 or 40?"
Maybe because VIX closed above 52 and 50 is a nice, round number?
"Who can guarantee that all B&H investors are rational and all traders are fools?"
Nobody can - there are fools on both sides!
There are very few guarantees when it comes to investing.
However, analyzing probabilities can sometimes be useful.

If I may don my sorcerer's hat for a moment, I'd like to point out some curious symmetry which might augur well for the stock market.
$INDU peaked at 45054.36 on 1/31/25, fell to 40661.77 on 3/13/25, and then rallied to 42821.83 on 3/26/25. The difference between 45054.36 and 40661.77 is 4392.59, which when subtracted from 40661.77 is 36269.18, which is rather close to the low of 36611.78 on 4/7/25.
In a similar vein, $SPX peaked at 6147.43 on 2/19/25, fell to 5504.65 on 3/13/25, and then rallied to 5786.95 on 3/25/25. The difference between 6147.43 and 5504.65 is 642.78, which when subtracted from 5504.65 is 4861.87, which is rather close to the low of 4835.04 on 4/7/25.

Wow...the highest ever! Thanks for putting Wednesday's NYSE up vs. down volume ratio into historical context.
The stock and bond markets are now weighing whether the Trump "reciprocal tariff" team and it's leader (Trump) will be able to arrive at minimally disruptive agreements with the 57 countries currently scheduled to face steeply increased tariffs after 90 days. The markets are also continuing to weigh the impact of the new across the board 10% tariff, the recently increased tariffs on Canada and Mexico and the recently increased tariffs on steel, aluminum, and autos (with prescription drugs tariffs coming soon). And, of course, the markets are waiting to see if Trump and Xi Jinping are able to get past the first move and resolve their differences in a market friendly way.
The Zweig indicator's long history of success provides reason to hope as does Trump's desire to retain congressional majorities after the mid-term elections. But, Trump thrives on chaos and has been letting his intuition guide his actions since his return to the White House. Hopefully Trump will figure out a way declare victory and move on. We probably know before very long if Zweig's indicator is up to the challenge Trump is presenting it with.

Update -
As of 2:40 PM today the Dow was again above the historically significant 40,000 mark.
+1.45% +580 points at 40,172 (Yes - it’s likely run back and forth before.)
I’d appreciate it if you could direct any political perspectives to some other thread. We managed to have some fun discussing the 40,000 mark 11 months ago without reference to politics,

Hey @Junkster! Thanks for that.
It was after all, one of the bigger short squeezes of all-time!
From a definition perspective, it's pretty easy to argue at this point it was a DCB, as it was NOT based on fundamentals (rather the deep fear that a deep recession was being risked) and the price direction immediately reversed that night/the next day. But to fully define a DCB:
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/deadcatbounce.asp
Bottom Line: We won't know until sometime later.
That said, from a T/A perspective, they really had to fight on Wednesday to get thru the Fibo 50% retracement level.
The 61.8% level, not far above it, is expected to be stiff resistance and many believe we will not get through it on the first attempt. And the buffon put (er blink) line is expected by many to be re-tested.
On the positive-looking side, I'll stack the Zweig data that you presented with comments Lawrence O'Donnell made on Wed night, pretty much saying we now know the insanely calculated tariffs will never happen:
https://www.msnbc.com/the-last-word/watch/lawrence-trump-backs-down-on-tariffs-after-a-day-of-fearing-elon-musk-might-call-him-a-moron-236996677787
Bottom Line: IMO, this one is different from past, similar drops, in that it is self-induced and a mad man has the keys to the car. So round and round we go, where we stop, nobody knows, until we see what he ultimately does with the keys.

Don’t shoot the messenger and disregarding politics here, my favorite momentum indicator is Zweig’s up volume vs down volume on the NYSE. I have referenced this several times over the years. Most great traders are terrible analysts and most great analysts are terrible traders. That said, one great amateur analyst I know (meaning he does not work for some Wall Street firm) is as bullish as ever based on Wednesday’s action. That day saw a 65 to 1 up volume over down volume on the NYSE - the highest ever. That was greater than the infamous 42 to 1 that launched the greatest bull market of all time on August 18, 1982. With the recent volatility we have seen recently it won’t take long to see if Wednesday was indeed THE day.

It fell to near historic lows. Fact number 1. Consumer spending is a big driver of the economy. Shouldn’t that eventually translate into lower stock prices in many sectors? Fact number 2. This survey has been conducted for many decades by the University of Michigan and as such hasn’t yet been corrupted by the regime. What do you think the likelihood that U of M’s funding is threatened or pulled in the near future? Too much bad news in a short period of time for anyone to process. It’s the blitz of 25. God luck .

A follow up on this from Reuters today.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/jpmorgan-analyst-says-he-now-tempers-public-comments-us-tariffs-2025-04-11/

The OP is the usual argument I have heard for decades. There's no way to time markets; always stay invested, and eventually it will come back. All true, and what most investors should do.
The author can't guarantee how long it would take to come back to even or how deep the markets would fall.
There are investors who have enough and don't want to lose too much; for them, these generic articles don't have an answer. Most who believe in the above never tried, or tried and failed. It's not easy.
I'm not going to talk about me. There are a couple of traders where we discuss off the board what we do, and these traders have sold prior to every meltdown. What it a miracle? No, it wasn't. But you have to really trade for years to get there. You can't be a successful trader in a matter of days-months.
If you want to do better, start listening to Tom Bowley, he called this decline about 2 months ago, and usually he has been right most times.
============
"Since 1990, forward S&P 500 total returns for 1 yr., 2 yr., 3 yr., 4 yr., and 5 yr.
were always positive whenever the VIX closed above 50."
Where is the catch in the above? Smart authors look back in history and play with their numbers to make a statement to fit their narrative.
Why 50? Why not 45 or 40? All mean very high volatility.
The real question is how long it took an investor's portfolio to get back to equal.
If the SP500 was at 5K, went to 2.5K, and a year later it was at 3K, it is still not back to 5K.
This chart (https://schrts.co/chKgGjNr) from 1999 to 2014 shows you several points where VIX was pretty high over 40 in 2002 and 2003. How long did it take the SP500 to get back to even? Several years to 2007. What happened after 2007? Another 50+% decline, this time VIX was over 50, and again, it took years to get even.
Of course, most also know that the more you go down, the more % you need to go up. We also know that investors lose their cool and sell at the bottom. Many have a plan until they get hit in the face. Emotions are the number one problem for investors.
BTW, buy and hold is also a daily decision of not selling. Who can guarantee that all B&H investors are rational and all traders are fools?