Pimco Crown Adjusted for New Bond EraBy Lisa Abramowicz Dec 27, 20
16 8:00 AM EST
I spoke with Ivascyn recently about how Pimco is approaching the year ahead given this difficult backdrop. He emphasized the process by which the Pimco team debates its investment views, where different members challenge one another ..
"The human mind tends to play tricks on us," he said in a phone conversation. "There's a tendency to seek out research that supports an existing view."The better approach, he said, is to actively seek out credible, contrarian views and data and
consider the possibility that your views are wrong. Going into next year, Pimco has fewer high-conviction, macroeconomic calls than in the recent past, and it's aware that it's never been more expensive to execute trades. In 20
17, the firm will likely spend a considerable amount of time trying to understand the policies of President-elect Donald Trump, whose election has spurred the biggest monthly selloff in U.S. government bonds since 2009.
Given the unpredictability, Pimco's funds have been increasing cash allocations in some portfolios and preparing for a default cycle at some point. While Pimco isn't expecting an imminent rash of insolvencies, Ivascyn thinks that a recession is coming and that it's time to start preparing.
The market has "gone from fear to what seems like a good deal of complacency," he said. Investors have to be "very, very careful about a reliance on investments that are only where they are based on central bank policies." He cited Italian government bonds as a perfect example of this.
https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2016-12-27/pimco-crown-adjusted-for-ivascyn-and-a-new-bond-eraAdded
What Complacecy?Last-minute spending surge lifts U.S. holiday shopping season By Nandita Bose | CHICAGO....There is growing evidence that an improving job market, lower gasoline prices and growing consumer optimism all contributed to the surge.
President-elect Donald Trump attributed the spending increased to his impending arrival at the White House.
"The world was gloomy before I won - there was no hope. Now the market is up nearly
10 percent and Christmas spending is over a trillion dollars!" Trump wrote on Twitter.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-holidayshopping-idUSKBN14H02C