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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Trump Throws Monkey Wrench Into REIT Sector
    HERE'S A HANDY CHART Shows most of the points made.This is a weekly feature and nice re-cap of the REIT industry posted on Seeking Alpha by the authors.I've posted it on this site several times.
    image
    http://seekingalpha.com/article/4032479-real-estate-weekly-record-high-home-prices-consumer-confidence-reit-rally-pauses
  • Trump Throws Monkey Wrench Into REIT Sector
    The columnist doesn't seem to know how to read a stock-chart. The REIT ETF, VNQ peaked in price on 8/1/16. At that point, its price move YTD was 14% -- an outsized gain for a full year, let alone 2/3 of a year.
    At that point, its price receded until the week of the election. --- during that time, right up until election day, the likelihood of a Trump victory seemed to recede every week. -- So if politics was effecting the price of REITS, the decline was discounting an HRC victory, not a Trump victory. Its price is up modestly since then. --- which is a standard seasonal bullish period (Nov-Dec), for stocks generally, and also for REITs specifically.
    So really, "nothing to see here". But of course, journalists don't get paid to write that.
  • Trump Throws Monkey Wrench Into REIT Sector
    "Donald Trump's election in November further contributed to those trends. The election and his attraction to a stronger dollar have helped spur higher rates ...". This quote has it backwards.
    It's the other way around. Higher rates since the election caused the Dollar to soar against other curriencies. (The author suggests the opposite). And I'm not sure there was any intent on the part of Trump either. Investors, fearing higher inflation if he funds massive infrastructure with debt have reacted predictably by demanding a higher rate of return on money lent. That's why rates have risen since his election. Currency traders, seeing the now higher rates available on U.S. debt have consequently bid the dollar higher against other currencies. Remember, however, the dollar was already sitting at multi-year highs before the election. Even at 1.37% on the 10-year the dollar looked attractive against many other currencies where negative rates had been imposed by central banks desperate to spur growth and inflation. (The Federal Reserve also contributed to higher rates, but the trend was well in place before they acted.)
    As suggested by others, a strong dollar cuts both ways. It makes imported goods cheaper for Americans to buy but harms U.S. exporters by making their products more expensive (and less competitive) abroad. Perhaps missing from the article/discussion is that a strong currency can have deflationary consequences. That's one reason nations around the world have been attempting to weaken their currencies. As for REITS, don't feel too sorry for them. I purchased a small hold in OREAX in early September, 2015. In fewer than 16 months it's up 17.5% - not too shoddy.
  • 2016 Capital Gains Estimates
    So, Mairs & Power might well be the very LAST to pay-out profit to shareholders:
    MPGFX $5.04/share
    MAPOX $1.58
    MSCFX $0.46 cents
  • The Breakfast Briefing: Dow On Track To Make A Fresh Attempt To Hurdle Over 20,000
    erudite
    It fascinates me that people obsess about round numbers on indices.
    It is fascinating isn't it? Not just stock indexes. Toss in 50th anniversaries, turning 70 or 100, or becoming a millionaire - to name a few. The goverrnment, however, seems not to have such fixation. Witness the 70.5 years of age RMD requirement or tax brackets like 28 and 33%.
    Is Dow 20,000 meaningful? Hardly. But if it's like Dow 10,000 the gang at CNBC will celebrate. Unlike your 50th anniversary, they'll probably get to celebrate Dow 20,000 more than once.
    There could be a psychological aspect to all this that will motivate those investors who are less erudite than we to throw caution to the wind and start pouring money into an already hot market, driving indexes even higher for some period of time. Or, I suppose, the opposite may also accur - with the daunting figure stoking fear in the hearts of many and causing stocks to sell off.
  • Mark Hulbert: What This Week’s Stock Market Will Tell You About 2017
    Totally agree with prior posts. "This" week tells us NOTHING, except what happened THIS WEEK. Haven't we all learned that from the last 12 months?
  • Mark Hulbert: What This Week’s Stock Market Will Tell You About 2017
    Sorry, but why is this even an article? Hulbert also now getting paid by number of words by Marketwatch?
    What an effing job. Now we will wait for Part 2 of this article which will be about 1st week of the year...
    Or maybe we will at least be spared not seeing a link to it on MFO.
  • Trump Throws Monkey Wrench Into REIT Sector
    FYI: His election and his attraction to a stronger dollar have helped spur higher rates and resulted in higher bond yields, both bad news for REITs
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.investmentnews.com/article/20161227/BLOG09/161229957?template=printart
  • Overrated Fund Families
    I really don't pay much attention to fund families in general, unless they do something really stupid or illegal (yeah, Janus comes to mind here, along with a select few other groups). There are some fund groups that continue to surprise me they are even still operating, and Putnam is the classic case, along with Pioneer. Oppenheimer as a whole is a disappointment, although ODVYX has been an exception. Also surprised that Invesco and Harbor are still going. The disappointing fund families for my own experience are no longer in existence, having been bought out and eventually disappearing: Fremont, Nicholas-Applegate,
    If it were not for the commission brokers, American Funds would never have grown so large. It's recent ability to continually add share classes has been a brilliant marketing move.
    Interesting note to prior comments on TGBAX: just when many had written off Mr. Hastenstab, his management once again has brought the fund to the top of its group. Hot money flowed in, hot money fled. In 2010, the fund had about $18 billion in assets, which grew to $37 billion in 2014, and is now at $21 billion. The fund now is again top decile for 1, 5, 10, and 15 yrs. The manager's ideas often take time to pay off, but like all great managers, Hastenstab might have 2-3 years of under-performance then it's back to the races. We'll see.
  • RPIHX a bad idea?
    From a hard bottom in early Feb. 2016, a large portion of the better managed HY bond funds are running about +16% returns. This movement may exist and continue the trend into the unknown future for "x" months or ??? One is or would be buying HY at a pretty high price at this time, IMHO. If pricing starts to decline for any number of reasons, one will find the yield even better than now; but at the expense of the loss of capital (losing money on the pricing, eh?). This situation would likely find a loss in value overall. We've held as much as 60% of our portfolio in HY/HI; but not at this time, nor would I buy at this time. Just my personal 2 cents opinion.
    As to VWINX (40 bond/60 equity): you may entry any fund you choose to compare at this site page and find how returns compare going out to 10 and 15 years for this conservative fund. Yes, bonds may affect this fund going forward more so than in past years. Institutions and folks will buy bonds going forward. Pension funds and others have limited choices for some holdings to maintain policy pay out into the future. Bonds may have been wounded recently, but they are not dead. And as you understand, there are many types of bonds; and all have their day(s) in the sun.
    http://performance.morningstar.com/fund/performance-return.action?t=VWINX&region=usa&culture=en_US
  • RPIHX a bad idea?
    Pimco Crown Adjusted for New Bond Era
    By Lisa Abramowicz Dec 27, 2016 8:00 AM EST
    I spoke with Ivascyn recently about how Pimco is approaching the year ahead given this difficult backdrop. He emphasized the process by which the Pimco team debates its investment views, where different members challenge one another ..
    "The human mind tends to play tricks on us," he said in a phone conversation. "There's a tendency to seek out research that supports an existing view."The better approach, he said, is to actively seek out credible, contrarian views and data and consider the possibility that your views are wrong.
    Going into next year, Pimco has fewer high-conviction, macroeconomic calls than in the recent past, and it's aware that it's never been more expensive to execute trades. In 2017, the firm will likely spend a considerable amount of time trying to understand the policies of President-elect Donald Trump, whose election has spurred the biggest monthly selloff in U.S. government bonds since 2009.
    Given the unpredictability, Pimco's funds have been increasing cash allocations in some portfolios and preparing for a default cycle at some point. While Pimco isn't expecting an imminent rash of insolvencies, Ivascyn thinks that a recession is coming and that it's time to start preparing.
    The market has "gone from fear to what seems like a good deal of complacency," he said. Investors have to be "very, very careful about a reliance on investments that are only where they are based on central bank policies." He cited Italian government bonds as a perfect example of this.
    https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2016-12-27/pimco-crown-adjusted-for-ivascyn-and-a-new-bond-era
    Added
    What Complacecy?
    Last-minute spending surge lifts U.S. holiday shopping season By Nandita Bose | CHICAGO....There is growing evidence that an improving job market, lower gasoline prices and growing consumer optimism all contributed to the surge.
    President-elect Donald Trump attributed the spending increased to his impending arrival at the White House.
    "The world was gloomy before I won - there was no hope. Now the market is up nearly 10 percent and Christmas spending is over a trillion dollars!" Trump wrote on Twitter.
    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-holidayshopping-idUSKBN14H02C
  • Champlain Focused Large Cap Value liquidating
    An email greeted me back from vacation saying fund will close 1/27/2017. Needless to say I'll sell tomorrow itself. I'm guessing it simply did not gather enough assets - 6.4M.
    Shame. I think Champlain is a solid shop and I own their small and mid funds as well.
    Thinking of replacing CIPYX with BPAVX. Not trying do necessarily a do a 1-1 match. But I could use some suggestions.
  • Overrated Fund Families
    Hi @VintageFreak
    @JoJo26 noted: "Most overrated, BY FAR = Fidelity", @sma3 noted: "Fidelity Most too big too identical" and your notation of ditching your RiverPark and moving the monies to Eaton; I will note.....
    >>>One must consider what might be found at a "fund house", sort what you find of value for your investing needs, quality of timely and accurate data processing and ease of use of the existing structure.
    Fidelity has had a long list of mutual fund choices for a number of years, including what were first of a kind choices for the "common folk" investors with the introduction of the "select" funds. Fidelity also helped beat down the cost of investing from the full "load" fees charged by the big retail houses of the earlier period for mutual fund investing.
    We use Fidelity (since late 1970's) as a portal for investments. There is nothing written stating that one's brokerage account is restricted to Fidelity offerings.
    The portal is as flexible as needed by this house.
    Over the years, from the point of Fidelity fund choices; we have traveled into these choices (may be a few that escape memory at this time):
    FCNTX FDGRX FLPSX FAGIX FSPHX FLBIX SPHIX FRIFX FNMIX FINPX and several of the select funds.
    The majority of our holdings today are not Fidelity funds; with the brokerage portal allowing travel to........well, everything, to which, we desire access.
    If one can't find an investment path(s) within this fund house; I can't offer another solution.
    Our 2 cents worth.
    Catch
  • Overrated Fund Families
    Of course, this does not address fund families that died long ago does it?
    Anybody remember Mathers Fund? Henry van der Eb was almost 100% cash in the 1990s writing lucidly why the market was wrong. He was eventually right but by that time the fund dissolved.
    In rank order of most disappointing families (ie not worth the ER)
    American funds... Maybe I would feel more positive if I had made any money with them or if I could tell them apart. They all look pretty homogeneous to me and too big
    Franklin Templeton. too expensive, rarely excel. Bond funds are Ok but too expensive. to make up their expense ratios they go out on a limb. I ended up in some of them when Michael Price sold out, but have stuck with MDISX given large capital gains, and their ability to slide over to new management relatively successfully
    Fidelity Most too big too identical. Too much work to tell what is going on.
    Janus They seemed to know what they were doing in the go go 1990s but we all know how that turned out.
  • Overrated Fund Families
    Sorry --- forget DSE_X, since that introduces bonds; I shoulda just asked about CAPE.
    FT's lexicon defines quant as 'using computer-based models to inform their decisions on whether to buy or sell securities.'
    >> ... the more discretion there is held by humans, the less quantitative the fund is [@msf].
    Why I asked. Since there is no discretion for CAPE, seems to me it's as quant as can be. Hence in answer to your 'overrated' query, since for the last 4y it matches or outperforms (depending on timeframe) about all other SP500 constructions, it seemed to me that maybe it was the opposite of overrated. - ?
    @MikeM ---
    >> what 4 of the 10 sectors of the S&P the fund is invested in at any given time?
    No. This is as recent as I have uncovered:
    http://www.etnplus.com/US/7/en/details.app?instrumentId=174066