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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • American Beacon International Equity Index Fund to close to new investors
    http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/809593/000080959314000116/ieisoftclose.htm
    497 1 ieisoftclose.htm
    American Beacon International Equity Index Fund
    Supplement dated October 15, 2014
    To the Prospectus and Summary Prospectus dated April 30, 2014
    The information below supplements the Prospectus dated April 30, 2014 and is in addition to any other supplement(s):
    The following information is inserted at the end of the section titled "Purchase and Sale of Fund Shares" on page 9 of the Prospectus and page 4 of the Summary Prospectus is deleted and replaced with the following:
    The American Beacon International Equity Index Fund (the "Fund") will close to new investors as of the close of business on December 31, 2014. Existing shareholders as of that date may continue to purchase, redeem or exchange shares of the Fund on any business day, which is any day the New York Stock Exchange is open for business.
    The following information is inserted as the final paragraph to the section titled "Purchase and Redemption of Fund Shares – Eligibility" on page 18 of the Prospectus:
    Effective as of the close of business on December 31, 2014, the Fund will close to new investors. The Fund will continue to accept additional investments (including reinvestments of dividends and capital gain distributions) from: (1) existing shareholders of the Fund who had open accounts as of December 31, 2014; or (2) participants in most qualified retirement plans if the Fund was designated as an investment option as of December 31, 2014. Investors through financial intermediaries who did not have a funded position through the intermediary by December 31, 2014 may not invest in the Fund after that date.
  • Any Bets on what Today will bring?
    With the drop in oil, also look at the rail car builders. Greenbrier from around $75 to $47 in less than a month. Trinity from $50 to $32. American Railcar from around $80 to $60.
  • Any Bets on what Today will bring?
    @catch22.
    Here's where the smart money has been lately...with catch212 and Mr. Gundlach =) :
    image
    image
  • Any Bets on what Today will bring?
    Hi @Charles
    Keep in mind, that we here; are not all equity centric.
    Some bonds sectors are smiles at the moment; but who knows what 3:59PM may bring.
    Thank you for all of your efforts.
    Catch
  • Any Bets on what Today will bring?
    Bad start this morning, across board in equities...energy continues to drop:
    image
  • Any Bets on what Today will bring?
    Yes.
    Here is data for TAN - Solar EtF, off 34% since March:
    image
  • Any Bets on what Today will bring?
    To Scott's point, here's same chart for XLE Energy Select Sector...slammed, on five times normal volume:
    image
  • Any Bets on what Today will bring?
    We're 6.6% off high.
    Under 200 day average.
    Volatility remains high.
    Twice average volume this week.
    image
  • Any Bets on what Today will bring?
    Here's the thing, when you look at the market as a whole, it's down but not horrendously. When you look at certain sectors (oil, in particular and anything oil related), they've been obliterated. I mean, you have oil majors with a relative strength index in the teens (under 30 is oversold, under 20 is way oversold.) If you have any sort of long-term view (short-term, forget it), there are values to be had and yield while you wait.
    Might things go further South? Sure, but I do think you have the broader market which is in a mere correction and you have certain sectors down very substantially in a short period of time. MLPs down huge, and as I noted in another thread, you have one of the largest with a $60.5 million dollar insider purchase yesterday.
  • The Breakfast Briefing: U.S.
    FYI: A top Wall Street forecaster’s motto for the stock market’s latest selloff: No pain, no gain.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2014/10/15/morning-moneybeat-no-pain-no-gain/tab/print/
  • What Are The Odd We're Heading For Another Crash
    >>>It's been difficult lately, to take the long-term view. But that's my frame of reference. I've got the world covered, leaving out Latin America, deliberately..... I hate to see the numbers, the last several days. Maybe I should just go fishing and start to think again in terms of YEARS. "I love it when a plan comes together." ---George Peppard. <<<<
    Max where have you been most of this year?? Missed your posts. Not sure George Peppard is someone to quote in a topic of taking the long term view as his lifetime was pretty short having passed away at only 66 years old. </blockquote>
    Hey, Junkster. I'm just enjoying retirement, at my wife's expense. The summer has been my best ever, in fishing terms. A fabulous and inexpensive hobby! My favorite lake seems to be fished out of big channel catfish. Today I brought home--- for the neighbors--- a couple of pretty big mullet, as big as the cats I'd been catching. Freshwater mullet, aka "white suckers." There's a lotta fight in them, too!
    http://i853.photobucket.com/albums/ab100/treywheeler/102_0107.jpg
  • Barry Ritholtz: What I Suspect And Fear For the Stock Market
    Neutral "risk profile" years ( 2014 being one) have tended to be flat to slightly positive in aggregate. http://stockmarketmap.wordpress.com/2013/10/10/market-map-model-1-risk-profiles/
    The statistical strength of a 4th qtr. rally unfolding would seem probable. http://stockmarketmap.wordpress.com/2014/09/15/market-map-update-09152014/
    As for the "curators of financial content", we have a hard time believing that, from the tri weekly appearances on CNBC (representing expert views on everything from the Palestine conflict to bank bailouts ) to writing content about Ferraris and the music business, that they would be able to put in the time needed for deep quant research and advisory.
  • Catching falling knives
    Hi Junkster,
    Nice to see you posting again. About catching falling knifes ... I don't look at my current special strategy in that light. But, one that uses market money to make new purchases at discount prices. Below is my thinking, my strategy, what I am doing and my anticipated outcome.
    I am hoping the 2100 comes to be for a year end close for the S&P 500 Index as forecasted by Birinyi. This would equate to just short of a 12% gain from current levels of 1878. Which is indeed possible should forward earnings estimates materialize as anticipated.
    Anyway, I now have my marker on the bet line that it will as I bought again today. With this I have recently bought at the 1970's, the 1920's and the 1870's. My next buy step is the 1820's and then beyond that at the 1770's should we reach these levels on the Index.
    Keep in mind that year end mutual fund capital gain distributions are expected to be on the heavy side this year. Since, I take all my distributions in cash I have decided to put these anticipated distributions to work early and use the forth coming distributions to restore the cash position within my portfolio used to make these purchases.
    With my average cost on amount invested currently at about 1920 and should the Index reach the forecasted 2100 year end closing mark then this will equal about a 8.5% gain. Should I buy again at the 1820's then this will lower my cost on amount invested to about 1895 and increase the gain to 10.8% should the 2100 mark be reached. With another buy at the 1770's and if the 2100 year end closing mark be reached then this would equate to about a 12.3% gain.
    For me it is risk on for the traditional fall stock market rally. After all, the way I look at this is that I am using market money derived from investment distributions to make more market investments which from my thinking is kind of clever by using market products that generated the cash that will, in the end, fund these special purchases.
    Should my strategy not play out by year end; I believe it will over time and besides the funds I invested in have a history of paying out good distributions.
    Since this is being played in a tax deferred account there are no taxes to pay until withdrawals are made and I am investing in funds that are nav purchases for me.
    Old_Skeet
  • Energy Sector Crashes
    FYI: The S&P 500 Energy sector makes up about 10% of the entire S&P 500. The sector rallied 23% from late February through June 23rd, and it was one of the top performing sectors in 2014 at that point. But things have turned ugly for Energy lately. Real ugly !
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2014/10/14/energy-sector-crashes.html?printerFriendly=true
  • Catching falling knives
    yields continue to sink globally. In the US the whole curve had a bid – 2yr yields are at multi-month lows down at 0.37% (keep in mind this was 0.58% only back on 9/24). 10yr yields are now ~2.2% (down ~8bp Tues). The 2-10 spread is at risk of hitting fresh lows (it narrowed ~3bp Tues to 182bp). 30yr yields broke under 3% and are at new 52w lows (2.94%, down 7bp). A lot of moving pieces are at play. To start, some of this is just catch-up (recall FI was closed Mon while the SPX sank >30 points). Meanwhile, European yields continue to sink – German 10yr yields are at risk of falling to 0.8% and regardless of what is happening in the US Treasury yields won’t be able to rise so long as European borrowing costs sink. Nominal growth expectations continue to move lower – globally the collapse of crude prices is feeding through to inflation forecasts and market-based break-even indications are still sinking (US 10yr TIPS spreads are down to new lows today) while growth assumptions are nudging lower too.
  • Birinyi Not Even Sure What's Going On With Stocks
    I am hoping the 2100 comes to be for a year end close for the S&P 500 Index as forecast by Birinyi. This would equate to just short of a 12% gain from current levels of 1878. Which is indeed possible should forward earnings estimates materialize as anticipated.
    Anyway, I now have my marker on the bet line that it will as I bought again today. With this I have recently bought at the 1970's, the 1920's and the 1870's. My next buy step is the 1820's and then beyond that at 1770.
    Keep in mind that year end capital gain distributions are expected to be on the heavy side this year. Since, I take all my distributions in cash I have decided to put these anticipated distributions to work early and use the forth coming distributions to restore the cash position within my portfolio used to make these purchases.
    With my average cost on amount invested currently at about 1920 and should the Index reach the forecasted 2100 year end closing mark then this will equal about a 8.5% gain. Should I buy again at the 1820's then this will lower my cost on amount invested to about 1895 and increase the gain to 10.8% should the 2100 mark be reached. With another buy at the 1770's and if the 2100 year end closing mark be reached then this would equate to about a 12.3% gain.
    For me it is risk on for the traditional fall stock market rally.
    Old_Skeet
  • Birinyi Not Even Sure What's Going On With Stocks
    FYI: If you’re confused as to what’s going on with the stock market, you’re in pretty good company.
    In a recent note, Birinyi Associates, headed by Salomon Brothers veteran Laszlo Birinyi, said the S&P 500 SPX has a 60% probability of hitting the firm’s year-end target of 2,100, compared with the 80% probability of a month ago.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2014/10/14/birinyi-not-even-sure-whats-going-on-with-stocks/tab/print/
  • Barry Ritholtz: What I Suspect And Fear For the Stock Market
    Hi rjb112,
    I rarely, if ever, post on Bond and fixed income issues because I consider myself rather naïve on these matters. I plead an embarrassing level of ignorance. Many MFO members are far better informed on this subject than I am, so I suggest you address your income questions to these fine folks.
    Since you asked, and since I have been investing in various forms of the fixed income universe for decades, I will submit a few incomplete thoughts on bond/fixed income investing. As usual, I will document my thoughts with a couple of references.
    Using a ship as an analogy, equities are the power-plant that drive the ship towards a target safe harbor. Fixed income and bond components serve as a rudder to more closely align the ship on the desired compass heading. The rudder does slow the ship a little.
    Volatility is very acceptable when you are young and accumulating wealth, but losses its attractiveness when approaching retirement. Hence, I morphed from a heavily weighted equity portfolio a few years ago to a more neutral portfolio (50/50 mix) today.
    When wisely assembled, a balanced portfolio can almost maintain the annual returns of an all equity portfolio while reducing volatility (standard deviation) by half. Volatility always functions to attenuate compound returns below annual return levels.
    Bond diversification helps to reduce overall portfolio volatility just like equity category diversification does. The bond market offers about as many subcategories as does the equity marketplace. Just like equities, these bond subcategories deliver a random checkerboard of annual returns; so the bond segment of my portfolio has many components to smooth the journey. Here is a Link to a Vanguard Bond Table of Periodic Returns:
    http://www.vanguard.com/jumppage/international/web/pdfs/INTLCCRD.pdf
    Just like the famous Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns, the annual fixed income rewards bounce all over the space. Predicting future winners is an impossible task, so diversification is a reasonable strategy.
    Likewise, forecasting future inflation rates and interest rates is also hazardous business. History suggests that the best guess for interest rates 10 years from now is what the current value is.
    I do believe that just like market professionals have improved their skill sets, so has the Federal Reserve. I don’t expect wild inflation rate changes like those recorded in the late 1970s. The Fed actions can not guarantee a “soft” landing, but I do believe that they have sufficient control and data to pilot the economy to a “softer” landing.
    However, I do not fully trust my projection of a more stable interest rate environment. Therefore, the bond portion of my portfolio emphasizes short duration elements as well as TIP components. Once again, uncertainty pushes me in diversification’s direction.
    Costs always matter. That’s especially the case when investing in bonds. Very, very few actively managed bond funds outdistance their passive rivals. Given today’s low interest rate environment, costs are extraordinarily critical. I control costs by doing most of my bond business with passive Vanguard products (exceptions included later). They have served me well.
    Even given the present low interest rate levels, bonds are still an important segment of an individual’s portfolio. Vanguard has a nice recent report that illustrates this point. Here is its Link:
    https://personal.vanguard.com/pdf/s704.pdf
    When my portfolio was rather thin, I decided to diversify into the bond market by using Balanced mutual funds. I was lucky and selected some winners. After decades, I still own these funds. They are the exceptions I noted earlier. These are Dodge and Cox, Wellington, and Wellesley mutual funds. I report these merely for the record, and do not necessarily recommend them for anyone.
    I hope this is a little helpful. Sorry for this unorganized post; it is a series of random, real-time thoughts on your question. I’m lazy and commit little time to the bond marketplace. Please consult with better informed MFOers on this topic.
    Best Wishes.