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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • David Snowball's October Commentary Is Now Available
    A few comments.
    First, I like rforno liked the old format better; but, since the content is great I'll adjust to the new.
    Second, I found Charles' Balcony of interest this month. If I was just starting out as a retail investor and was going to have only one account that comprised my whole portfolio then the three fund portfolio makes good sense. However, the way the government has structured retirement savings and investing in general a good number of folks like myself wind up with multiple accounts. At work, I had a 401k, a profit sharing, health savings and then my own self directed ira plus an individual investment account. Folks that is five accounts. Some might have more as my broker wanted me to open a roth ira. If each account holds about eight mutual funds then this comes to forty positions. Some accounts may or may not have common investment options. In real life the three fund portfolio, for me, did not exist.
    Since, the three fund portfolio was not a viable option I developed a sleeve management system to compile my multiple accounts into a portfolio which currently conists of forty seven funds split among eleven investment sleeves plus two cash management sleeves. I would indeed like to see something written that schools investors how to compile and manage multi accounts with each account hosting a good number of funds. For me that is real life. In addition, cover something on adaptive allocation and how one might incorporate this into their investment positioning.
    Thanks again for a great monthly read.
  • Scottrade Exploring Sale
    hmmm. well, i just transfered well over 250k but far less than 1 mil to fidelity by closing out my wellstrade account and i did not to think of asking for a bonus. crap. think i should ask for one retroactively?
    in the alternate, i have a big pile (for me) at scottrade. if i decide to transfer those assets to F, maybe i could ask for a bonus then and ask them to also take into account what i brought over from wells ...
    Below is Fidelity's bonus breakdown. Also a link to all current offers as of October 1. Scroll down the link for the bonus offers. After reading this I am not transferring all my money to Fidelity Monday but just a partial. I can earn more than the $3750 they offered me by making partial transfers from Scottrade over the ensuing months.
    Bonus Breakdown:
    Deposit $1,000,000+, and receive $2500
    Deposit $500,000+, and receive $1200
    Deposit $250,000+, and receive $600
    Deposit $100,000+, and receive $300
    Deposit $50,000+, and receive $200
    http://www.hustlermoneyblog.com/best-brokerage-bonuses/
  • Scottrade Exploring Sale
    hmmm. well, i just transfered well over 250k but far less than 1 mil to fidelity by closing out my wellstrade account and i did not to think of asking for a bonus. crap. think i should ask for one retroactively?
    in the alternate, i have a big pile (for me) at scottrade. if i decide to transfer those assets to F, maybe i could ask for a bonus then and ask them to also take into account what i brought over from wells ...
  • M*: Liquidity Risk Increases At Fairholme
    FYI: Following dismal performance and billions in investor outflows over the past several years, this fund faces serious liquidity risks.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?id=772817
  • Timing “Smart Beta” Strategies? Of Course! Buy Low, Sell High!
    FYI: A contrarian timing approach—emphasizing factors or strategies trading cheap relative to their own historical norms, and deemphasizing the more expensive factors or strategies—can improve performance, but should be used in moderation to avoid increasing portfolio risk from a loss of diversification.
    •Contrarian timing is a form of value investing, but is not the same as doubling down on value risk. Relative valuation may support investing in the value factor when value is cheaply priced, and conversely, may indicate avoiding the value factor when it is expensive
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.researchaffiliates.com/en_us/publications/articles/541_timing_smart_beta_strategies_of_course_buy_low_sell_high.html
  • How To Invest In A Bond Market Gone Crazy: Tom Atteberry, Manager, FPA New Income Fund Video & Text
    "This transcript has been automatically generated by Sarah Palin and may not be 100% accurate."
    I ... we might ... is that we ... were talking about ... the zero negative this negative interest rate policies of Europe and Japan ... forcing that ... capital is here to look for yield somewhere else which means it comes to the US ... driving our rates down to ... the demand goes up ... and appear time when our conomy is really growing better than those in the lead is this to justify the low right ... now also causes a problem for the ... Reserve Bank is it thinks about raising short-term interest rates ... it's looking to hire a short-term interest rates but long-term interest rates of decline with the two of the same ... I have the more I The typical promise once you ... grow ... Swiss constraining what the Fed can do it ... so thinking about a flat yield curve or what its implication is that he is okay if you think of a banking takes EMCD money an entrance ... lens that money up to individuals and businesses ... if the CD rate rises towards very close to the rate that they begin to lead the money out ... they no longer make a profit doing that ... the declining about lending to do so what does it say constrained lending which is what you need to get an economy to grow faster ... discussing ... current unwinding its less profitable for ... the dude lets up ... we don't have a crystal ball to the ending we just look at the imbalances and along the spine economy slows down to justify the longer term rates a half because money is coming from overseas ... I really start to run the risk of things overheating inflation being Iran to reprice thoughts ... these are bought CEOs six return ... in the media ever return hire that inflation could justify credit risk whichever one ... after readjust that means that when prices decline to get you to the law ... so we look at it and so I am I really paid for ... lending money to look says she's the US government to a really well in the U S government money for ten years and one half percent ... Deutsche think over the next ten years ... that inflation is going to be higher than one percent milk was two or three with him how his either ... that doesn't owe us make sense ... so yes did realize ok ... I can lend out money that was how far can be one of three years maybe five years ... we understand the real you accept the lower return than in the interim ... which are thinking of longer term don't really want that money to come back ... for when the imbalances gone away ... yields might be higher I can then redeployed much more attractive return ... when you begin to trade office we look at what's the role that were playing in someone's portfolio for the war of the bomb components someone's overall portfolio worst bolstered the anchor for response to the local chili cook off ... Portugal's be the protector of capital ... bill the risk Apple is really all the equities for ... real estate deal other items to my puzzle remembering lower all this ... we look at that's ok the we need to play the role the role is anemic sure this is a low volatility strategy ... because we understand they're doing ... investors into another high volatility ... investing ... and that's ... more fun to do that ... you will find Indigo that means that ... I will underperform the ... longer term and is forecast to one ... so what will happen to them as he gets if ... rates rise so it is one of low caste to reprice the bowl sponsor bills longer portfolios we've chased yield stress and and with the result is going to be ... the value of their portfolios and rock ... it will probably drop by more the in the mountains income the chair generates of the end result for them as is the Total Return becomes less than zero
  • Parnassus Statement on Wells Fargo
    Here from the 6/30 report/commentary is their public explanation of why they bought it in the first place:
    We decided to buy Wells Fargo after many years of waiting for the right entry point. At the time of our purchase, the stock was trading at a slight discount to other regional banks, and at a major discount to the overall stock market. In addition, the company had just lowered guidance for important return‐on‐capital measures at its May investor day. We think the company will meet or exceed these new targets, which should provide support for the stock over our three‐year investment horizon.
    As for the quality of the company, simply put, we think Wells Fargo is the best large bank in the country. It has an enviable balance of fee income and net interest income, a widely diversified customer base and a culture that emphasizes risk management.
  • Scottrade Exploring Sale
    @Junkster - can you tell me how Fidelity is providing $3,750 to your account? I'm currently in the process of transferring a rollover IRA to them and transferring a taxable account to them as well.
    I know there offer commission free trades (but no discount for TF mutual fund purchases).
    I would like to know more and speak with them again.
    Below is the definitive thread on brokerage transfer bonuses. As for Fidelity they offer $2500 for a transfer of a million dollars. If you transfer more, you can bargain with them for more of a bonus. Free trades are of no interest to me. I was originally told my bonus would be just for transferring my IRA. But now found out it will be for transferring both my IRA and small taxable account from Scottrade. They will prorate the $3750 among the two accounts based on their sizes. As for how this bonus is handled (contribution, capital gain, taxes, etc, and other matters) see below.
    https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=196884
  • Scottrade Exploring Sale
    Bonuses on brokerage transfers seem to be this decade's version of the 1990's checks for switching long distance companies (MCI->Sprint->AT&T->MCI->...)
    Here's a third party page that points you at various Fidelity promotions (like the cable company, Fidelity doesn't seem to want to make its "best price" easy to get):
    https://investorjunkie.com/11001/fidelity-promotions/
    The link to a Fidelity cash offer points here: https://rewards.fidelity.com/offers/friendsandfamilyoffer1
    The highest lump sum cash offer I've seen from any brokerage (for under $250K transferred) is $1K, so I too am curious about a $3K+ offer.
    @DavidV - TDAmeritrade seems to offer various different terms depending on whom you work through. In my case, my account is an HSA with a credit union having a brokerage option. I found that even with HSAs, the TDA terms vary depending on the HSA provider. I suspect they have also different arrangements with different 401k plans that offer brokerage windows.
  • Fidelity Contrafund Continues To Slash Stake In Struggling Chipotle
    A diversified mutual fund (let alone a non-diversified fund) is allowed to own up to 10% of a company (so long as that doesn't constitute more than 5% of the fund's assets).
    Chipotle has nearly 30M shares outstanding, so Contra's 2M at the end of 2015 was under 7% of the company. And with over $100B in AUM, those shares worth under $1B at the time (less now) represented less than 1% of the fund.
    The numbers seem so large only because Contra is such a huge fund.
    Chili's is classified as casual dining. In this group, it strikes me as near the bottom of the pile, similar to TGIF in atmosphere, portions (big) and quality (greasy). It's okay, I'll eat there in a pinch. But there are better ones in the category. For Tex Mex, I'd take Chevy's over it any day.
    Chipotle is in a lower "class" of restaurants - fast casual. I find the food much better (and cheaper), and while IMHO it is one of the better ones in its class, it has solid competition from places like Panera and Cosi.
  • Americans' Median Net Worth by Age -- How Do You Compare?
    Hi Davidrmoran,
    Indeed"The Bell Cirve" unleashed a firestorm of controversy when released. Actually, that was expected and one of the reasons why my wife and I purchased the book. It did not disappoint. It is still hotly debated, and Murray still vigorously defends it. Here is a Link to a relatively recent interview:
    http://www.aei.org/publication/bell-curve-20-years-later-qa-charles-murray/
    Controversy is not bad. When the subject matter discusses white/black performance scores, one should anticipate controversy-squared.
    I haven't opened the book since 1995 so I dusted it off. It is a heavy weight study with an extensive Bibliography and 7 appendixes. My copy is a serious 845 pages long. I'm sure I didn't agree with all its findings or its methodology but I do remember being impressed with the work it reflected.
    When I was in the military, I was assigned to score standard tests given to all recruits. It is not an overstatement to reflect that many answers from both whites and blacks were ridiculous. That's a sorry reflection of our educational system. Now that's a "glittering generality".
    I don't plan to visit the tome again. There are more updated assessments of the topic if it attracts your interest.
    Best Wishes.
  • Several AQR Funds with "_________ Relaxed Constraint Equity Fund" in registration
    It looks like they're trying to resurrect the 130/30 fund structure from the filings. If it's got the same secret sauce as their long short fund, count me in.
  • Fidelity Contrafund Continues To Slash Stake In Struggling Chipotle
    FYI:
    Fidelity's Contrafund (FCNTX.O), the largest mutual fund investor in Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG.N), cut its stake in the struggling burrito chain by 19 percent in August, Fidelity disclosed on Friday.
    Run by portfolio manager Will Danoff, Contrafund reported holding about 790,177 shares in Chipotle at the end of August. That was down from about 980,000 shares in the previous month, according to Fidelity fund disclosures
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-fidelitycontrafund-chipotle-idUSKCN1202H7?il=0
  • Parnassus Statement on Wells Fargo

    Dunno what if anything they'd do, but you won't see evidence of those actions, if any, until probably the December commentary.
    With the 1/4 end I wouldn't be surprised to see a reduction in holdings since the prospectus says "in the best interest of fund holders" What would be, hold or sell?
  • Parnassus Statement on Wells Fargo
    With the 1/4 end I wouldn't be surprised to see a reduction in holdings since the prospectus says "in the best interest of fund holders" What would be, hold or sell?