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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Consuleo Mack's WealthTrack Preview: Guest: Bruce Berkowitz, Manager, Fairholme fund
    FYI: (I will link intereview as soon as it becomes available for free, generally early Sat. morning)
    Regards,
    Ted
    September 30, 2016
    Dear WEALTHTRACK Subscriber,
    Few money managers have the conviction, wherewithal, stamina and independence to stick with positions that remain unpopular and unprofitable for years before paying off. This week’s guest is one of the few! We’ll be joined by Bruce Berkowitz, a deep value, long-term investor who rarely gives interviews. I have been interviewing him on WEALTHTRACK since 2007 and he has always generated a great deal of interest.
    Berkowitz is Founder and Portfolio Manager of the three Fairholme funds - his Flagship Fairholme fund, launched in late 1999, the Fairholme Focused Income fund started in 2009, and the Fairholme Allocation fund begun in late 2010.
    The Fairholme fund, for which he was given Morningstar’s Domestic Stock Fund Manager of the Decade Award in 2010 has delivered 10% annualized returns with dividends and distributions reinvested since inception, nearly triple the market’s total return.
    However, the last decade has been much more difficult. The fund has badly lagged the market over the past 10, 5 and 3 year periods despite having several stellar years including 2012 and 2013 when it crushed the market and led its Morningstar Large Value category, gains that were offset by a big decline in 2011 and then another subpar performance in 2014, hurting its track record. The fund, which once had over $20 billion in assets, is now a fraction of that.
    Berkowitz is famous for taking big positions in a handful of companies that are generally shunned and panned by Wall Street when he is accumulating them. He has made a fortune over the years in concentrated stakes in health care, energy and financial services. He has also poured a fortune in recent years into companies such as Florida real estate company The St. Joe Company and retailer Sears, as well as financial firms such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which have yet to pay off.
    There’s a well-known saying “Don’t fight city hall”… but Berkowitz is taking on the entire U.S. federal government. Fairholme is engaged in a multi-year lawsuit against the U.S. government over its handling of the conservatorship of the two mortgage giants, which although hugely profitable, are still under government control and paying enormous dividends to the government - but not to preferred shareholders like Fairholme. I began the interview by asking him why he is so committed to fighting this battle.
    If you are unable to join us for the show on television, you can watch it on our website, WealthTrack.com, starting over the weekend. If you’d like to see it earlier, it is available to our PREMIUM subscribers right now. We also have an EXTRA interview with Berkowitz about his views on the presidential candidates. He says it is more about the team than the candidate.
    Thank you for watching. Have a great weekend and make the week ahead a profitable and productive one.
    Best Regards,
    Consuelo
  • Parnassus Statement on Wells Fargo
    (PRBLX holds WFC as its #1 position, added there during the last quarter.)
    Src: https://www.parnassus.com/our-firm/highlight/184
    Due Diligence on Wells Fargo
    SAN FRANCISCO, CA, September 27, 2016
    You may have seen recent news that Wells Fargo (WF) is facing scrutiny over its cross-selling programs that resulted in employees opening accounts and credit cards for customers without permission. As a significant shareholder and a responsible investment firm, Parnassus Investments is deeply concerned about this information.
    We are conducting a thorough due diligence process. We have initiated conversations directly with executive leadership at Wells Fargo, and are currently evaluating and monitoring the various remedies the firm has applied. As additional information becomes available, we will further engage directly with Wells Fargo leadership.
    At this time, the Parnassus investment team does not believe there exists a deterioration in WF’s company fundamentals. Wells Fargo management is still working through revisions to their cross-selling policies to remove incentives for practices that could harm customers, employees and the firm’s reputation. Although these new incentive and compensation policies are still in development, WF management has assured Parnassus that the firm and its team members will continue to emphasize deep client relationships.
    However, given the circumstances, Parnassus strongly recommends that the Wells Fargo Board of Directors consider pay packages for WF executives who were responsible for the cross-selling programs in accordance with the WF’s claw back policies.
    While WF’s responsible investing profile has been temporarily weakened by the firm’s cross-selling practices, it is important to note that the firm has many positive social aspects. Wells Fargo remains one of the largest corporate charitable donors in the U.S., has a strong reputation for promoting diversity and inclusion, and in general is regarded as a positive workplace.
    It is our current belief that Wells Fargo has the capacity to recover from the damage that has occurred to its brand, including its relationships with customers, employees and regulators. As more information is made publicly available, we will of course update our evaluation and communicate to our shareholders.
    Mutual fund investing involves risk, and loss of principal is possible.

    I've waffled about reducing PRBLX for general portfolio allocations this year but not pulled the trigger yet.
    This situation inclines me to do that just on principle since WFC is their #1 position, at least until this thing blows over -- granted, a 5% allocation won't move the needle much on the fund's performance, but still. I like the rest of the fund's holdings/positioning, so not doing anything out of haste, obviously. I thought PRBLX and PRWCX would be a nice combination, but maybe I'll just fold some/all of PRBLX into PRWCX and call it a day. *shrug*
    The more I read about the history and etiology of the WF churning,
    http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2016/09/16/from-gr-eight-to-gaming-a-short-history-of-wells-fargo-and-cross-selling/
    the more I am thinking I am going to bail completely out of PRBLX, 100%. I expect such a fund, that makes such whoop over its DD in the SR space, to at least read the financial press and raise a fuss as warranted. Must think about this and sleep on it. Jeez louise.
    Isn't WFC on of Warren Buffet's largest holdings? I haven't seen any comments about Warren.
  • Scottrade Exploring Sale
    This was a rather strange sentence:
    "Buying Scottrade could enable TD Ameritrade to reduce costs by eliminating redundant back-office systems, while bringing in new customers, he said."
    The simplest interpretation is that what was meant was that the combined entity could save costs by settling on one of the legacy systems and tossing the other. But that wouldn't be eliminating redundant systems at TDAmeritrade, which is how the quote literally reads.
    Another possibility, while similar, would have TDAmeritrade elimintating its own redundancy. I don't know how fully ThinkOrSwim has been integrated into TDAmeritrade, but TDA could eliminate that redundancy by tossing its system and taking Scottrade's.
    Whatever they do (assuming this acquisition happens), watch out for glitches. Barron's wrote in 2011 about TDA's 2009 acquisition of ThinkOrSwim in Hiccups in TD's Latest Acquisition: "We've covered quite a few consolidations among online brokerages. Some went extremely well, some were disasters. "
    http://www.barrons.com/articles/SB50001424052702303545104576524570860463438
    Not to beat a dead horse, but one of the most notorious integrations of financial institutions was Wells Fargo's acquisition of First Interstate (can't WF do anything right?):
    "In its haste to eliminate redundancies in the two organizations' branch networks, back-office systems and staffing, Wells Fargo had touched off a chain reaction of operational glitches and customer-service embarrassments. These caused cost overruns, serious damage to the bank's historically strong reputation and brand name and, worst of all, market share declines, which are very difficult to reverse."
    http://www.institutionalinvestor.com/article.aspx?articleID=1027771
  • Americans' Median Net Worth by Age -- How Do You Compare?
    Caught related info on the radio yesterday (while driving, so only got the gist).
    It used to be that companies paid workers to go to college, but these days that's rare. And where these programs still exist, they're very limited. Starbucks was given as an example - they'll pay workers' tuition, but only for one college (Arizona State University), and only for an online program.
    http://globalassets.starbucks.com/assets/2EA4CFEBE53E4771B8A6E038BB47AF8A.pdf
    The report went on to observe a perhaps unintended consequence of tuition support programs. These programs usually require students to maintain a certain GPA (e.g. B). So students will avoid harder courses, or drop courses to concentrate on a few where they can keep their grades up.
  • Parnassus Statement on Wells Fargo

    I've waffled about reducing PRBLX for general portfolio allocations this year but not pulled the trigger yet.
    This situation inclines me to do that just on principle since WFC is their #1 position, at least until this thing blows over -- granted, a 5% allocation won't move the needle much on the fund's performance, but still. I like the rest of the fund's holdings/positioning, so not doing anything out of haste, obviously. I thought PRBLX and PRWCX would be a nice combination, but maybe I'll just fold some/all of PRBLX into PRWCX and call it a day. *shrug*
    The more I read about the history and etiology of the WF churning,
    http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2016/09/16/from-gr-eight-to-gaming-a-short-history-of-wells-fargo-and-cross-selling/
    the more I am thinking I am going to bail completely out of PRBLX, 100%. I expect such a fund, that makes such whoop over its DD in the SR space, to at least read the financial press and raise a fuss as warranted. Must think about this and sleep on it. Jeez louise.
  • How Do You Compare With The Typical Mutual Fund Owner?
    FYI: How do you stack up against the typical person who owns mutual funds?
    Mutual fund owners tend to reflect a cross-section of America. They're doing OK in terms of income and wealth, but they are not in Donald Trump's or Hillary Clinton's swanky neighborhood.
    The median value of mutual funds owned by U.S. families was $120,000 in 2015, the most recent year for which the Investment Company Institute has data. The ICI is a mutual fund industry trade group.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.investors.com/etfs-and-funds/mutual-funds/how-do-you-compare-to-the-typical-mutual-fund-owner/
  • Parnassus Statement on Wells Fargo
    The more I read about the history and etiology of the WF churning,
    http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2016/09/16/from-gr-eight-to-gaming-a-short-history-of-wells-fargo-and-cross-selling/
    the more I am thinking I am going to bail completely out of PRBLX, 100%. I expect such a fund, that makes such whoop over its DD in the SR space, to at least read the financial press and raise a fuss as warranted. Must think about this and sleep on it. Jeez louise.
  • The first actively managed ETFs to invest in CEFs
    Not exactly the same animal, but RIV from RiverNorth has been operating since last December as a CEF of CEFs. Presently it trades at about a 2.7% discount. RIV can hold ETFs, but it does not seem to now. NAV has risen about 6%, but the price only 1%. While M* estimates the distribution rate at 8.5%, most of what the fund has paid out is in ST and LT CG, and some income.
  • Americans' Median Net Worth by Age -- How Do You Compare?

    Sometimes as early as the 1840s, William Henry Harrison said something that approached " the rich get richer and the poor get poorer". The industrial revolution had already started and it was hoped that major poverty would be eliminated. The data discussed in this exchange prove otherwise.
    I thank you all for bringing the wealth distribution stats more fully into focus for me. I live in an affluent neighborhood in an affluent town and don''t often, if ever, come face-to-face with poverty and its victims. That's my shortfall.
    If you look at the size of the middle class world wide since WWII it is usually large, historically speaking.
    The theme of history is income inequality. The abnormality is recent history. Economically, the future world will look more like pre-industrial revolution world then post WWII - Rich, small fragile middle class and the rest poor.
  • Americans' Median Net Worth by Age -- How Do You Compare?
    Hi Guys,
    Sometimes as early as the 1840s, William Henry Harrison said something that approached " the rich get richer and the poor get poorer". The industrial revolution had already started and it was hoped that major poverty would be eliminated. The data discussed in this exchange prove otherwise.
    I thank you all for bringing the wealth distribution stats more fully into focus for me. I live in an affluent neighborhood in an affluent town and don''t often, if ever, come face-to-face with poverty and its victims. That's my shortfall.
    The data that you guys referenced highlight the many shortcomings of wealth distribution in the USA. I was not aware that household wealth has basically stagnated since 2000 and the distribution has become even more distorted. The bottom 40% have lost ground while only the top 40% have gained ground, and only the elite 10% has done so significantly. We can do better than that although economic opportunity has never been equally distributed. Education is not the only cause for this distortion.
    Thank you for calling my attention to these sorrowful statistics. I learned much.. Unlike a few others on this exchange, I do trust them. The detail contained in these government surveys and releases is truly amazing.
    Best Wishes.
  • The first actively managed ETFs to invest in CEFs
    Surprise, surprise, surprise..... only a matter of time..... the first actively managed ETFs that will invest primarily in CEFs.
    http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20160928005849/en/Trust-Launches-Trust-CEF-Income-Opportunity-ETFs
    First Trust Advisors L.P. (“First Trust”) has launched two new exchange-traded funds (“ETFs”) that invest primarily in closed-end funds (“CEFs”), the First Trust CEF Income Opportunity ETF (Nasdaq: FCEF), and the First Trust Municipal CEF Income Opportunity ETF (Nasdaq: MCEF). Both funds seek to provide income by investing primarily in CEFs. FCEF has a secondary objective of total return. Furthermore, MCEF invests primarily in CEFs that invest in municipal debt securities and will seek to provide income that is exempt from regular federal income tax.
    Ken Fincher will be the PM responsible for the day-to-day management of each fund’s investment portfolio.
  • Americans' Median Net Worth by Age -- How Do You Compare?
    @davidrmoran - you beat me to some of the links (and comments). Though I do agree with the sentiment that I wouldn't trust much written by a Fool. Which is why one wants to go to the source.
    Here are a couple more links:
    Age vs. household wealth: Table A1 of the CB publication Distribution of Household Wealth in the U.S.: 2000 to 2011
    The actual source of the data is SIPP (Survey of Income and Program Participation).
    https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/sipp/about.html
  • TCW Fund's Tad Rivelle: Insight - "Twilight of the Central Bankers"
    From Link:
    "Our counsel remains as it has been: avoid those assets that will be broken in the coming de-leveraging while keeping a “steady as she goes” attitude towards the future purchase of those assets that will merely bend when the flood comes."
    TCW Insights -Trading Secrets
    Manager Interview (TGLMX) with M*:
    morningstar.com/Cover/videoCenter.aspx?id=321043
  • Is It Too Late To Get On The Municipal Bandwagon?
    Like virtually all other bonds, munis have enjoyed the many years of lower rates. I check individual muni prices regularly, and seldom if ever find an investment-grade muni that is not selling 2-3% above par. While I won't say there is a bubble, it is clear that the easy money was made over the last 10-20 years. Most managers will tell you they would be happy to be able to pay investors their coupon and just hold NAV steady in coming years. We are quite cautious with all bonds right now, using shorter-duration funds and going with short-to-intermediate term funds. And bond fund expenses are a critical component. A fund that charges 75-100 bps or more has a huge headwind facing them as rates move higher. M* lists 222 short-term muni funds, with fully one-third of them having expenses of 75 bps or higher, some higher than 150 bps. Of course, these funds were SOLD to investors by banks and other commission-driven entities.
  • Parnassus Statement on Wells Fargo
    So, will there be one internal investigation, or two? This short Reuters report is worded slightly different than the Chicago Trib description.
    https://www.fidelity.com/news/article/top-news/201609272228RTRSNEWSCOMBINED_KCN11X2NW_1
    A special committee of the bank's independent directors will lead an investigation into the retail bank's sales practices, helped by the board’s human resources committee and the law firm Shearman & Sterling LLP, according to the statement.
    The investigation may lead to further compensation changes or employment actions, the company said. "We are deeply concerned by these matters, and we are committed to ensuring that all aspects of the Company’s business are conducted with integrity, transparency, and oversight," Stephen Sanger, the board's lead independent director, said in a statement.
  • Parnassus Statement on Wells Fargo
    These disasters usually just drip on and on, unless senior management takes immediate responsibility ( remember this scandal has been known to CA newspapers for three years) and accepts appropriately severe personal punishment.
    Stumpf did none of this, and deserves to loose all of his salary and delayed compensation since the process began... Of course he wont, not will the chief of retail banking, who will be allowed to retire on a little less..
    We can hope that the AGs and DOJ go after them for conspiracy and fraud and, having ignored the criminal implications of the 2008 crisis, decide that enough is enough and file criminal charges.
    As far as your or my investment in WFC I would ( and did ) sell now. Nothing good is going to come out of this for months to come and the stock will likely drop 10 0r 15% as the true legal and distraction costs start to mount
  • Parnassus Statement on Wells Fargo

    That's a HUGE start, imho....you know how banks hate doing this kind of punishing these days. Wonder if Berkshire Hathaway pressured them into doing anything? I hate to keep mentioning them, but they are the bank's largest single shareholder, so it's not beyond the realm of possibility imho.
  • Stewart Capital Mid Cap Fund to liquidate ("A" class)
    Hi VF...I also had a position in SCMFX, a 25% foothold which I then sold in June after a 12 month holding period....it just didn't feel right, though that's a rather nebulous reason to be sure.
    Funds are going into VETAX, which appears to be solid, and NTF through Schwab.