Buy, Sell and Ponder December 2017 Old Skeet's month and year ending barometer report.
Old Skeet's market barometer follows the S&P 500 Index and it's major sectors using etf's as proxies and pulls data from certain feeds that produce readings that are compiled and scored into a barometer reading.
At the beginning of the month the barometer opened with a reading of 140 (overvalued) and closed the month with a reading of 138 (overbought). At the beginning of 2017 the barometer had a reading of 147 (fair value). The high reading on the barometer took place during the last two weeks of August and first two weeks of September with readings around the 152/153 range (undervalue). The low reading on the barometer took place during the third week of October with a reading of 132 (overbought). Their were no oversold readings recorded during the year for the Index. Generally, a higher barometer reading indicates more investment value in the Index over a lower reading. In addition, the barometer drives an equity weighting matrix that I use to assist me in setting my equity allocation within certain ranges. Currently, I am overweight equities at this time by about 5% due to a seasonal investment strategy over what the matrix is calling for.
The earnings feed will be advanced with the beginning of the next report. Currently, I am finding only one sector that scores undervalued at this time and that is utilities (XLU). All the other sectors are scored at fair value and above.
My 2018 S&P 500 Compass is equally weighted and is comprised of the following etf's. They are XLB, XLE, XLF, XLI, XLK, XLP, XLRE, XLU, XLV, XLY & EQL (reconfigured annually).
My 2018 Global Balanced Compass is weighted stock side at 60% with holdings being AXJL (5%), EEM (5%), EWJ (5%), GSP (5%), IEV (10%) & VTI (30%) and weighted bond side at 40% with holdings being AGG (20%), CWB (5%) & SHV (15%) (reconfigured annually). In addition, it holds VT as it's bogey and representative of global stocks as a whole.
In the next post I'll write about my use of my lead dog investment strategy. Should there not be a Buy Sell Ponder thread opened to start the new year then I'll continue postings with the return of the Markets & More thread on Friday evening January 5th.
Currently, Old_Skeet remains in a cash build mode within my mutual fund portfolio; but, has done some buying (with excess cash) around the edges in the month of December adding to my double tax free muni bond fund (income sleeve), added to positions in my small mid cap sleeve (to build it out) and opened a "floor" position in a commodity strategy fund (spiff sleeve). In addition, since I take most of my mutual fund distributions in cash (and with their above average payout this year) I am overweight cash at this time by a couple of percent. Some of this excess cash will be used to meet my 2018 RMD requirement within mine and my wife's self directed IRA accounts. After that, I may do some more buying around the edges and looking to add a position in KCM Macro Trends fund.
Wishing all the very best in the coming year ... and, most of all "Good Investing."
Thanks for stopping by and reading.
Old_Skeet
Please forgive my typos along with some misspelling made this year as I suffer form dyslexia which has become more pronounced in my senior years. This is one of the reasons I passed the Buy, Sell & Ponder thread on to another; but, I have still made post to the thread in hopes of helping to keep it going. It has, thus far, remained a highly viewed thread although the number of comments, by others, seem to be in decline.
On The Lookout For Powerful Properties: (RAAAX) FYI: For Burl East of Allegris AACA, the best real estate sectors are the ones where tenants can’t move: data centers, lab space, even casinos
More importantly, “I’ve been through three full real estate cycles, working as a buy-side analyst, a sell-side analyst, an investment banker, and sitting on seven boards,” says the manager of the $293 million Altegris/AACA Opportunistic Real Estate fund (ticker: RAAAX). “I’ve seen this industry from every angle.”
That perspective—and an unconventional approach to the space—has helped deliver his fund, launched in 20
14, to the top
1% of its real estate category over the past three years, during which time it returned an average of
10.9% a year.
Regards,
Ted
http://www.cetusnews.com/business/On-the-Lookout-for-Powerful-Properties.SJ_j7HgqjEmG.htmlAltergis Funds Website:
https://www.altegris.com/en/Funds/Mutual-Funds/RAAAX Landing Page.aspxM* Snapshot RAAAX:
http://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/raaax/quote.htmlLIpper Snapshot RAAAX:
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/raaaxRAAAX Is Unranked In The (RE) Fund Category By U.S. News & World Report:
https://money.usnews.com/funds/mutual-funds/real-estate/altegris-aaca-opportunistic-real-estt-fd/raaax
Anybody Own This One? (HSGFX) I guess he’s proven that nothing can go to zero. It appears that mathematically one could continue to lose 10% a year indefinitely. Why they might chose to do so is another matter.
I’m currently occupied trying to fathom Einstein’s Theory Of Relativity. When I’ve got that one figured out, I’ll begin work on Hussman’s investment approach.
Happy New Year everyone!
Anybody Own This One? (HSGFX) Looks like it’s going to end the year down more than 13%.
Ouch!
Baird LargeCap Fund to liquidate Update: fund has been liquidated
12/28/
17
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1282693/000089418917006855/baird-lrgcap_497e.htm497
1 baird-lrgcap_497e.htm SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIALS
Rule 497(e)
1940 Act File No. 8
11-09997
1933 Act Registration No. 333-40
128
BAIRD FUNDS, INC.
Supplement to Prospectus dated May
1, 20
17
(As Previously Supplemented September 29, 20
17 and November
16, 20
17)
and Statement of Additional Information dated May
1, 20
17
(As Previously Supplemented September
13, 20
17)
Baird LargeCap Fund
(Investor Class: BHGSX)
(Institutional Class: BHGIX)
The Baird LargeCap Fund (the “Fund”), a series of Baird Funds Inc. (the “Company”), has been liquidated effective December 28, 20
17. Accordingly, all references to the Fund in the Company’s Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information are hereby eliminated.
This Supplement should be retained with your Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information for future reference.
The date of this Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information Supplement is December 29, 20
17.
The Closing Bell: Wall Street Ends The Year On Dour Note not surprised, Most have done well and not a ton of selling for a loss or gain. I expect closing mutual funds also lower. Get ready for a good 2018. Happy New Year!!
Ron
The Closing Bell: Wall Street Ends The Year On Dour Note
Register for Webinar Premium Site Update (Encore) - Friday, 5 January 2018
Biggest S&P 500 Winners And Losers Of 2017: Tech, Health Care And Home Builders Lead
Does a Reversion To The Mean Follow Big Up Years? Hi Guys,
I suppose a very generic answer to this guesstion has to be a qualified "yes". A reversion to the mean has to happen after a particularly outlander (extremely out of the ordinary average result) outcome. But the real world answer is a definite and firm "No".
The number of proposed methods to forecast market returns are so numerous as to challenge counting. They all work sometimes, but they also fail for other significant timeframes. If it were otherwise we would all be wealthy. Here is a Link that demonstrates the pure randomness of near time future returns following recent recorded returns:
http://static3.businessinsider.com/image/55bf73092acae716008bc67a-1200/past-performance-is-no-predictor-of-future-returns.jpgIf you see a correlation in these data "you're a better man than I am, Gunga Din". A correlation simply does not exist. No surprise here, no Happy New Year insight. Regardless,
Happy New Year to all MFO participants.
Infrastructure ETFs See Slight Bump On Report Of Coming Trump Proposal: (PAVE- (IGF)- (TOLZ)
Art Cashin: "Mini Santa Claus Rally On Final Trading Day Of The Year" Let’s hope we don’t start off ‘18 the same way we started ‘16 (with a loud thud).
If Art is so smart, why is he still working?
Hey! Just glanced at the Bloomberg screen and the Dow is in the red! Don’t know what rally Art’s referencing? Commodities have been hot lately. Just about everything. Gold rose above $1300 today for the first time in many months.
Does a Reversion To The Mean Follow Big Up Years? FYI: With just a few hours left in the trading day, the S&P 500 is on track to deliver a hefty gain of over 20% to investors for 20
17 and the ninth straight year of gains on a total return basis. In the S&P 500’s history, there has only been one other period where the S&P 500 was in the black for nine straight years, and that was from
199
1 to
1999. A big difference between that streak and now, though, is the magnitude of the gains. During the
1990s streak, the S&P 500’s total return was 450% compared to a relatively meager gain of 26
1% in the current period. If the S&P 500 does make further gains next year, it will be the first ten-year winning streak for the index ever. With such a big gain this year, though, can investors really expect to see gains in the year ahead?
Regards,
Ted
https://www.bespokepremium.com/think-big-blog/does-a-reversion-to-the-mean-follow-big-years/
Art Cashin: "Mini Santa Claus Rally On Final Trading Day Of The Year"
Infrastructure ETFs See Slight Bump On Report Of Coming Trump Proposal: (PAVE- (IGF)- (TOLZ)
Infinity Q Diversified Alpha Fund to hard close through transfer agent https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1261788/000089418917006828/tap-infinityq_497e.htm497
1 tap-infinityq_497e.htm SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIALS
Infinity Q Diversified Alpha Fund
Investor Class
IQDAX
Institutional Class
IQDNX
A series of Trust for Advised Portfolios
Supplement dated December 28, 20
17, to the
Prospectus, Summary Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information (“SAI”)
each dated December 3
1, 20
16
IMPORTANT NOTICE ON PURCHASE OF FUND SHARES
Effective as of the close of business on December 29, 20
17, the Infinity Q Diversified Alpha Fund (the “Infinity Q Fund”) is closed to all new investment, including through dividend reinvestment, and the Infinity Q Fund’s transfer agent will not accept orders for purchases of shares of the Infinity Q Fund from either current Infinity Q Fund shareholders or new investors. Current shareholders, however, may continue to redeem Infinity Q Fund shares. If all shares of the Infinity Q Fund held in an existing account are redeemed, the shareholder’s account will be closed.
Shareholders will be notified when the Infinity Q Fund is re-opened for all investment.
Please retain this Supplement with the Prospectus, Summary Prospectus and SAI.
Ric Edelman: The Most Important Chart On Investing You’ll Ever See Hi Guys,
The marketplace generates a ton of data. Tables and charts are a great way to summarize these overwhelming data sets. The charts can be designed to highlight selected elements in a manner that the author wishes to emphasize his point of view. Some charts work well while others fail to achieve their goals to their target audience. Regardless, they are all simplifications.
I really liked the referenced chart. From my perspective it effectively made the points that Ted reported. It might not be so effective for other readers, depending on goals, experience and education. Here is a Link to another article that presents an array of charts that purportedly do the same task:
http://www.businessinsider.com/charts-that-explain-stock-market-2016-2/#the-stock-market-can-wipe-you-out-1In this instance, the same author attempts to explain the market using
16 charts. Most important is likely an exaggerated claim in either case. The "most important" claim is a way to get published.
Lots of data scatter is shown in these charts, suggesting something less than a perfect prediction parameter in terms of its market explanatory power.
No great surprises here, but a lot of fun anyway. We all seek a better way to make investment decisions. Both of these articles make a little contribution to a better understanding of what's important and what is less so in the investment decision-making process.
Happy New Year to all.
