Many market sectors are struggling a bit, eh? Have we a small unwind period beginning? Hi Catch22,
I am not at this time concerned about minor moves and with market valuation at this time. However, I do feel it is, remains, overbought in general with some sectors more so than others. When I look around for value and things that might be oversold I come up with the metals and perhaps commodities … but, there again, metals are a store of value from my perspective.
For me a dip in the market is a drop in valuation of up to five percent. A pull back would be a drop in valuation from five to perhaps ten percent. A down draft would be a drop in valuation of ten to fifteen percent. A correction would be from a drop in valuation form fifteen to twenty percent … and, a recession would be a drop in valuation of more than twenty percent.
In review of my asset compass I am finding the only assets that I follow that have moved into a downdraft or correction mode are the metals down about 17% and commodities, in gereral, which are down about 12%. Everything else for the most part has not yet move past the dip range although I have a few that are in the pull-back range. In my own portfolio I am only off my 52 week high by about 1.2% overall with a couple of positions in the pull-back range.
I'm thinking we need a good pull-back before we can make the climb of the next mountain. Otherwise, we are going to move sideways and range bound around the current pinnacle.
With this, my answer to your question is …. It’s Too Soon To Call; but, I would not be surprised to see a good dip, or pull-back, come before we get through October.
Old_Skeet
The 7Twelve fund Portfolio
Beware Leaving A Roth For Heirs It's hard for me to read around the WSJ ad covering 80% of page and was unable to cut and paste the relevant passage. But, I'm very perturbed to read that Obama's 2015 budget would, if approved, make Roths subject to mandatory withdrawals at 70.5 the same as for traditional IRAs.
Let's hope that doesn't go through. Ability to defer withdrawals (and taxation) on that portion of retirement investment was the #1 reason I prepaid considerable taxes in order to convert a sizable portion of my Traditional to Roth only a few years ago. (My ... how quickly things can change.)
Issue here is financial "planning". I can invest and earn a decent return in a variety of ways (as can you). But, if government can change the rules in the middle of the stream ... how can anyone plan effectively for the future?
Edit: The thinking there is curious. Are they hoping for a court challenge as to whether the change could be applied retroactively? Than, if successful in court, perhaps implement the next stage - fully taxing Roth withdrawals? OMG - I'M beginning to sound like Fox News, :(
Many market sectors are struggling a bit, eh? Have we a small unwind period beginning? I continue to see sloppy trends in too many areas. Our health care investments are attempting to maintain some positive movements; but this is mostly due to the inclusion of the biotech stocks within these funds.
@Junkster noted positive trends in the HY muni sector; but too many other area remain sideways (recently), including most bond sectors.
I've some homework and intuitive reminders to sort out for the remainder of this week.
Take care,
Catch
Below is just after opening this morning.
VWO 4
5.62 -0.72%
ITOT 91.36 -0.30%
EMB 114.
50 -0.16%
IBB 270.
54 -0.92%
TIP 113.71 -0.10%
LQD 118.67 -0.11%
IEF 103.
56 -0.18%
IWM 11
5.
56 -0.86%
IYR 74.
52 -0.23%
HYG 93.01 -0.17%
Ron Rowland's Leadership Strategy ... Seems Moving Day Has Come! @Old_Skeet: Held IJH for close to five years which a nice performance, beating, SPY, but thought it was time to try and capture the upward momentum of the Nasdaq.
Regards,
Ted
YTD:
QQQ: 14.82%
IJH: 8.1
5%
Three Months:
QQQ: 8.11%
IJH: 2.23%
Beware Leaving A Roth For Heirs People should also be aware that inherited IRAs are no longer afforded bankruptcy protection per a Supreme Court ruling last week. Essentially the Court said they aren't "retirement money" if inherited. You can try to roll inherited IRAs over, but that has possible tax consequences.
Apparently, spouses may be affected by Court decision too if they do not roll over to their own account:
American Bar - Supreme Court Rules Inherited IRA Funds Not Exempt In Bankruptcy
"....
The case involves a daughter’s inherited IRA of a daughter and not that of a surviving spouse. The opinion implies that the surviving spouse’s rollover IRA is the person’s own IRA and thus exempt in bankruptcy but, if the surviving spouse does not rollover, then the IRA is an inherited IRA and subject to the same rules as an inherited IRA of a non-spouse beneficiary. The opinion says no more on that subject and does not address whether a surviving spouse’s rollover IRA is comprised of “retirement funds” or whether the surviving spouse’s inherited IRA does not have “retirement funds.” Since the funds would be the same in either case, that would be a difficult distinction. The opinion implies that if a surviving spouse does not rollover an IRA and thus does not make it his/her own IRA, the result would be the same as the daughter’s inherited IRA, as the IRA that is not rolled over by a surviving spouse is also an inherited IRA. The Court states: “If the heir is the owner’s spouse, as is often the case, the spouse has a choice: He or she may “roll over” the IRA funds into his or her own IRA, or he or she may keep the IRA as an inherited IRA (subject to the rules discussed below).”
...
Nevertheless, while not clear, the Court seems to imply that an IRA rolled over by a spouse beneficiary will be treated as the spouse's IRA, rather than an inherited IRA, and such IRA will be an exempt asset. If the spouse chooses to treat the IRA as an inherited IRA, however, it will not be an exempt asset."
American Funds Adapts To Changing Markets
GPROX, effectively; a buy and hold....yuck Bob, their fees for equivalent funds are lower than Wasatch's. Acc'ding to M*:
* Foreign: WAIOX 2.25%, GPIOX 1.73%
* Global: WAGOX 1.80%, GPGOX 1.68%, GPROX 1.60%.
Super Mario: Wall Street's Highest Paid CEO
The Moose Has Made Another Signal Change ... Back to ILF He moves from Latin American stocks to extended duration Treasuries, with a 25 year duration? If the interest rate on 25 year Treasuries were to go up 1%, the principal/NAV would go down by 25%.
This Moose is no stranger to risk. Latin American stocks are also not the lowest risk thing around either.
Vanguard Index Funds vs. Vanguard ETFs For small trades, the ETFs are OK. But for larger trades (say 50K or more) the mutual funds are better because there is no bid-asked spread.
@MOZART325, I'm not 100% certain that the index fund has the advantage there over the exchange traded fund. The index fund has to "pay" the bid-ask spread on every single purchase it makes. How is that fundamentally different than the bid-ask spread on the exchange traded fund?
May need to call in an expert on individual stocks. I don't have the expertise to address this issue, but I'm skeptical of the idea that exchange traded funds have an "additional" bid-ask spread to pay that a traditional index fund does not.
Vanguard Index Funds vs. Vanguard ETFs For small trades, the ETFs are OK. But for larger trades (say 50K or more) the mutual funds are better because there is no bid-asked spread.
ARIVX: anyone still own it But with 75% in cash, this fund still lost .53% today in a slightly down market. Did I miss anything here with this fund, or should I move on to other real SCV funds?
With the unique holdings in the top 10, I wouldn't assess it on the basis of how much it lost today versus how much the market lost. Because this definitely is not a "market" kind of fund, it has NO characteristics that are index-like.
Take a look at the sector weightings. This fund goes its own way and does not look at what others are doing.

I would study the manager. I Googled him, and there is plenty to read about him, including several interviews, to understand his current and past thinking and investment strategy.
You could read his fund reports. There is a semi-annual report that came out in July of this year. And whatever shareholder communications he has.
Below are the calendar year returns. His first full year of operations, he was at the top of the heap. The next two years, the bottom......
Where he will be over the next few years is totally unpredictable

ARIVX: anyone still own it But with 75% in cash, this fund still lost .53% today in a slightly down market. Did I miss anything here with this fund, or should I move on to other real SCV funds?
Here's why the fund lost .
53% today even though it is 7
5% in cash.
BTW, I'm not familiar with this fund. Just took a look after you posted the question:
All of the fund's top 10 holdings were down today as can be expected in a down market, but several of them were down a LOT for a one day decline.

The Gold mining stocks had a horrific day, and that has affected your fund a lot. Take a look at the top 10 holdings of your fund.

Your opinions?
GPROX, effectively; a buy and hold....yuck I also agree with the 5%. It will be interesting to see how performance holds up after the hard close. Do they plan on offering any more funds?
GPROX, effectively; a buy and hold....yuck Hi Andy- yes, I'm thinking that 5 is a pretty good number for this one.
Regards- OJ
GPROX, effectively; a buy and hold....yuck Hey Catch, it can also be a buy ... then sell and buy something else if it doesn't work out - no shackles.
Around here it's 4%, on its way to 5 by the end of the month.
GPROX, effectively; a buy and hold....yuck About 3% at present, may bump it up to 4 or 5.
ARIVX: anyone still own it I hold a larger position in this fund and established it almost at its inception. I understand the reason holding large cash position, and also understand that we should consider this fund as a conservative allocation fund with cash as the other alternative asset. But with 75% in cash, this fund still lost .53% today in a slightly down market. Did I miss anything here with this fund, or should I move on to other real SCV funds?