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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • The Closing Bell: Stocks Sells Off In Volatile Afternoon Trade As Fed Points To 3 Rate Hikes In 2017
    Yep ... that's what big money does. Runs the market up and then cashes out!
    They buy low ... drive the markets upward ... and, then sell on disapointing interest rate increase news. And, then they repeat the process again. Why was this not expected? What did you think they were going to do, bet the come line and then bid the Index higher on 2017 Forward Earnings Estimates of $133.00? That is 33% higher than where the Index will most likely finish 2016 with a TTM P/E Ratio of about $100.00.
    Folks, the market (S&P 500 Index) is currently very expensive with a TTM P/E Ratio of about 25 as reported in the WSJ. With this, I'm thinking it's going to drop further.
    Perhaps, in the nearterm, at about 2135 I'll put my buying britches on.
    Skeet
  • Seafarer Overseas Value Fund now available
    Thanks David. I'll have to cross check with Lipper. It's interesting to see what does and doesn't show up depending on who's doing the classifying and how "value" is defined.
    That's what makes playing with screeners fun. You get a better feel for the differences between funds around the edges when forced to dig into these details.
    I see that the Segall Bryant & Hamill fund (SBEMX) is a large cap fund, so you weren't excluding funds by cap size. Which raises the question why all the large cap EM value-ish funds that the M* screen found were excluded by MFO/Lipper.
    The M* screener (using P/E <= 15, P/B <= 1.4, category = EM) comes up with several funds not on your list. Like the MFO screener, M*'s generally returns the oldest share class.
    One that shows up with this screen is:
    ICON EM Fund, class S ICARX (NTF @TrowePrice)
    https://www3.troweprice.com/fb2/fbkweb/gateway/snapshot.do?ticker=ICARX
    Lipper says that this is an EM fund. Maybe the P/B in the MFO database differs slightly from M*'s; the latter says 1.38, so it's close to a cutoff.
    FWIW, here are the nine funds that M* finds using its definition of value (and also excluding large cap funds):
    Advisory Research Emerging Markets Opportunities Fund ADVMX
    AllianzGI Emerging Markets Small-Cap Fund; Institutional Class Shares ALAIX
    Ashmore Emerging Markets Eq Opps Fund; Institutional Class Shares AEOIX
    Ashmore Emerging Markets Frontier Equity Fund; Institutional Class Shares EFEIX (Frontier only)
    DFA Emerging Markets Small Cap Fund; Class I Shares DEMSX
    Seafarer Overseas Value - now there's a surprise
    Templeton Frontier Markets; Advisor Class Shares FFRZX (Frontier only)
    Victory Trivalent Emerging Market Small-Cap Fund; Class Y Shares MYEMX (A shares NTF@Fidelity)
    Virtus Emerging Market Small Cap Fund; Class I Shares VIESX
    I suggest researching ALAIX carefully before jumping in; overall performance is good, but it looks like almost all of its pop (relative to peers) came in its first quarter (2Q2015) when it returned 6.05% vs. about 1/2% for peers.
    A large cap EM fund that passes M*'s "value" screen (but barely misses the P/B criterion, at 1.46) is
    Blackrock Total Emerging Markets Fund; Institutional Class Shares BEEIX
    This looks a lot different from other funds; it's more like a world allocation fund restricted to emerging markets. Uses a lot of leverage, derivatives, etc. Not your father's EM fund. Available with a $2500 min (but TF) @Fidelity in IRAs. BEEAX available load-waived in all accounts.
  • Seafarer Overseas Value Fund now available
    Hi, msf.
    I wasn't using Morningstar. I was using the Lipper database that MFO screens through. There are many ways to define "value" but the portfolio metrics we have preset in the screener is p/e and p/b. I tried the lowest p/e (<10) and got two funds, one of which is liquidating, so bumped up to the next-lowest setting (<15). That leads to nine OEFs:
    AllianzGI Emerging Markets Small-Cap Fund; Institutional Class Shares ALAIX
    AllianzGI NFJ Emerging Markets Value Fund; Institutional Class Shares AZMIX
    Salient Frontier Strategy Fund; Institutional Class Shares FRNMX
    HSBC Frontier Markets Fund; Class I Shares HSFIX
    Advisory Research Emerging Markets Opportunities Fund ADVMX
    Segall Bryant & Hamill Emerging Markets Fund; Class I Shares SBEMX
    US Global Investors Emerging Europe Fund EUROX
    Virtus Emerging Markets Equity Income Fund; Class I Shares VEIIX
    Voya Russia Fund; Class A Shares LETRX
    (The system defaults to oldest share class which is often institutional, which explains the "class I" dominance.)
    The Salient fund is liquidating, US Global is Europe-only, HSBC is frontier-only, which leaves six broad, low p/e options to explore.
    There are, certainly, other ways to measure "value" beyond p/e. That said, a couple were interesting so I thought I'd share.
    As ever,
    David
  • M*: Betting Responsibly On Healthcare
    FYI: (For those who think a health-care sector fund is to risky, and don't want to hunt with the big dogs) !
    Healthcare funds were down 13.4% for the year through Oct. 31, following a big rally in prior years. Morningstar's stock analysts see opportunities here: They expect pricing power for drug and biotech companies to remain strong, research and development to remain productive, and mergers and acquisitions to continue at a steady pace.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?id=781320
  • Seafarer Overseas Value Fund now available
    I used the premium screener to find EM equity funds with the lowest p/e ratios and ended up with 8 funds with a p/e below 15 and a p/b below 1.5.
    ...
    David

    Voila! Didn't think of using P/E ratio for fund to discover "value". Problem is even with Premium Screener there is no Emerging Markets screen, but just Foreign G/B/V. Will keep this in mind for future.
    There's " category=international equity [diversified emerging mkts] " w/M*.
    I don't think David has given you his complete screen. If you screen for this category (again, at M*), and the P/E, P/B figures he gave, you get 45 funds (out of a universe of 230 EM funds). If you add the requirement that the portfolio not be large cap, then you come up with 8 funds. That's "equity style box != large".
    This seems like a quirky screen. A P/E ratio of 15 is well above the MSCI EM index figure of 12.8 and also above the diversified EM category average of 13.8. This wider net doesn't have an effect on the non-large cap EM funds though. All 8 small/mid cap EM funds have P/E's below 13.8.
    But in setting the P/E above the benchmark, it does seem designed to include SIVLX. That's the only one of the 8 that would be eliminated by requiring the P/E to be below the 12.8 figure of the benchmark index.
    One could take M*'s definition of value instead (not that this is any better or worse, just different), by screening for "equity style box = value" instead of P/E, P/B figures. That will give you 9 funds, with just 6 in common with the other screen. It introduces three different funds (and drops two).
    P.S. to Shadow - I see you fixed the ticker symbol. LZEOX used to be a different Lazard fund until it was merged into LZUOX around the end of 2006.
    http://www.lazardnet.com/lam/us/funds/equity.shtml (LZEOX fund page)
  • Seafarer Overseas Value Fund now available
    LOL. @VintageFreak: PRIJX (TRP) ...A very young fund, going back to Sept, 2015.
    Now you are talking. You guessed I asked the question because I wanted a place where I could buy without load and at brokerage. I do have an account with TRP and this seems like a good option to research.
    Thanks much.
  • Seafarer Overseas Value Fund now available
    I used the premium screener to find EM equity funds with the lowest p/e ratios and ended up with 8 funds with a p/e below 15 and a p/b below 1.5.
    Advisory Research Emerging Markets Opportunities (ADVMX) sort of stands out.
    AllianzGI Emerging Markets Small-Cap A (ALMMX) is newer and pricey, but has been doing well.
    Beyond that, I found six ETFs and one recently-liquidated fund.
    David
    Voila! Didn't think of using P/E ratio for fund to discover "value". Problem is even with Premium Screener there is no Emerging Markets screen, but just Foreign G/B/V. Will keep this in mind for future.
  • Seafarer Overseas Value Fund now available
    I used the premium screener to find EM equity funds with the lowest p/e ratios and ended up with 8 funds with a p/e below 15 and a p/b below 1.5.
    Advisory Research Emerging Markets Opportunities (ADVMX) sort of stands out.
    AllianzGI Emerging Markets Small-Cap A (ALMMX) is newer and pricey, but has been doing well.
    Beyond that, I found six ETFs and one recently-liquidated fund.
    David
  • Kimberlite Floating Rate Financial Services Capital Fund to liquidate
    I do about the same thing as Shadow, reading 497's and 485's each evening. Haven't needed a sip of NyQuil in over 15 years.
    As an aside, I suspected that he'd made up the name of this particular fund when I glanced at the subject line, in part because "kimberlite" is the name of an odd igneous rock. Why, I thought to myself, would anyone name their fund after a weird igneous rock? Surely he jests.
    But no.
    Cheers,
    David
  • Name the fund .....
    FWIW, I don't think he is timing the markets. Like I've said before, his HEDGING is flawed. Option decay should definitely lose the fund every year with a neutral position, but not the amount he is losing.
    I know I'm the last person holding this fund at MFO. At least the only one who will admit to it. His implementation is more flawed than his logic. Taking tax losses every year and rolling proceeds into HSTRX has eased my burden and I will continue to do so. The only reason I'm not selling outright is you never know when the tide will turn and I've already sold a good chunk of my most costliest shares.
    He still has 1,000,000+ in 3 of his 4 funds and 500,000+ in his 50% hedged fund HSVLX which is up 5+ % up YTD. To me this once more suggests his 100% hedging is the issue with HSGFX. Anyways, I will keep up the good work and keep rolling tax loss proceeds into HSTRX till I get out.
  • Seafarer Overseas Value Fund now available
    LOL. @VintageFreak: PRIJX (TRP) ...A very young fund, going back to Sept, 2015.
  • 2016 Capital Gains Estimates
    @VintageFreak
    I spoke with a CSR of the transfer agent...record date and payable date are 12/16. I would call again to confirm this information is correct.
    Much obliged.
  • best vanguard funds for your retirement savings
    @msf: Someone should tell Kiplinger Vanguard Primecap Admiral & Investor Shares are closed to new investors !
    Regards,
    Ted
    Ted...the article references the most attractive actively managed funds most likely found in 401K plans, and thus available to plan participants.
  • best vanguard funds for your retirement savings
    Why waste column inches? Regarding a sibling PRIMECAP-run fund, they'd already written:
    "Capital Opportunity is closed to new investors, but you’re in luck if the fund is offered in your employer-sponsored retirement-savings plan—that rule doesn’t apply."
    Also, VPMCX is open to some Flagship retail customers.
    http://mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/15805/vanguard-fund-changes-to-primecap-and-primecap-related-funds
  • Seafarer Overseas Value Fund now available
    I would think the Wisdomtree divd-focused stocks would inherently "tilt value", even though they are marketed for their divids and not "value". But then investors don't buy the marketing, they buy the fund/ETF... DGS/DEM...
    Minimum investment with any ETF much lower than the $100K Seafarer has.
  • best vanguard funds for your retirement savings
    @msf: Someone should tell Kiplinger Vanguard Primecap Admiral & Investor Shares are closed to new investors !
    Regards,
    Ted
    Best Vanguard Funds for Your Retirement Savings
    Vanguard Primecap: BUY
    Symbol: VPMCX
    Expense ratio: 0.40%
    Assets: $47.4 billion
    One-year return: 11.2%
    Three-year annualized total return: 12.8%
    Five-year annualized total return: 16.7%
    Ten-year annualized total return: 9.3%
    Yield: 1.4%
    From Primecap’s debut in 1984, the fund returned 13.4% annualized, handily beating the S&P 500 by an average of 2.4 percentage points per year. Few funds have done better. Primecap is closed to new investors, but if the fund is offered in your employer-sponsored retirement-savings plan, you can ignore that rule.
    Primecap Management, the fund’s subadviser, runs this fund the same way as Capital Opportunity. Each of the fund’s five managers independently runs his own slice of the fund’s assets. But they all follow the same approach, focusing on large and midsize companies with strong growth potential that are trading at reasonable prices.
    Note: On November 15, 2016, we changed our rating on this fund from Hold to Buy
    Vanguard Website:
    https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/snapshot?FundId=0059&FundIntExt=INT
  • Kimberlite Floating Rate Financial Services Capital Fund to liquidate
    @jptak
    Correct, generally under 100KB, but I look for 497 filings with small amounts of KB. Sometimes I am lucky, other times I am not. Some of the openings/closings are now under 497K filings (s/b SAI filings).
  • best vanguard funds for your retirement savings
    We aim to please. Here's Google's cached copy.
    You can click on the "view as one page" at the bottom of the text, it seems to work fine - fetching more cached content - even with an ad blocker engaged.
    As to the content, that's another matter. Kiplinger notes that it just changed Primecap from a hold to a buy. Seems like the usual stating of the obvious mixed with performance chasing. A year ago, Primecap's 5 year performance was mediocre - 2011 and 2012 almost exactly median, good years for 2013 and 2014, but a below average 2015. That meant its one year performance was poor also.
    Now that the fund is back to top decile performance, Kiplinger says "buy". Never mind that after a decade of growth outperforming value, we're beginning to see a reversal.
    http://money.usnews.com/investing/articles/2016-11-07/growth-stocks-or-value-stocks-which-are-winning
    It's a great long term fund for retirement. Now, last year, next year. The idea of rating it one way one year and another way another year runs counter to both the idea of long term investing for retirement, and the nature of this fund. It tends to runs in unpredictable streaks.