John Waggoner: Investors' Lust For Bonds Continues In Their Hunt For Yield Well, yup is the answer.....somewhat.
From the article: "Powering the bond rally is an enormous thirst for yield, fueled by negative interest rates in nearly a quarter of the world. About $8 trillion of government bonds worldwide offered yields below zero, according to Bloomberg, affecting some 500 million people. Even though the bellwether 10-year Treasury note yields just 1.54%, that yield is far more appealing than a guaranteed loss."
Also from the article: "Investors worldwide have poured $202 billion into bond funds this year, according to J.P. Morgan Chase". Unknown is who "investors" are per the article.
>>>One shouldn't leave out the "twitchy" factor = perceived safety.
Total return = yield + price performance, eh?
I see the trend as much to the price performance as yield. Those continuing to suspect that yields will remain low for an extended period of time are banking on price performance, although perhaps at a slower pace than previous.
Similar trends exist in broad and various sector equity area, eh? Equity growth and value have their swings and trends, too. Hot money still looking for the best bang for the buck.
Are "investors" per the article, include sovereign funds, pension funds and related, as well as individual investors? Most of the "large monies" group of investors are scratching their investing heads as much as anyone at this discussion board. So, don't feel overly confused by the ongoing perversions of the market place; at least relative to your intellect. You have company for such a status, PhD's or not.
"Outlier" Funds in Your Portfolio I allocate part of my portfolio to "alternative" strategies. Results to date have been generally terrible. Hopefully I will learn some lessons along the way, albeit painfully.
I think it is very important to define at the outset exactly what you expect this part of your portfolio to do for you. Whatever fund you pick, you should expect that it will eventually feel like it is underperforming. When that happens, going back to your original investment plan is the only way to determine whether your fund is "working" or not.
Some of my funds that are doing poorly this year include:
- Catalyst Macro Strategy MCXIX: Down over 20% this year. Terrible. I know others on this board had it, but maybe some (all?) of them have bailed by now.
- Wasatch Frontier WAFMX: Down over 2% year to date, and 10% for the past year. Not as terrible compared to MCXIX, but pretty bad compared to equity markets in general.
But I put it in context. Stocks and bonds are having a great year. Even Vanguard Wellesley, which is about as boring of a fund as it gets, is up over 9%. Alternative funds, I believe, should provide some diversification. That is, I hold them in the hopes that they will give some pleasant surprises when stocks and bonds are middling. Conversely, I try not to be too critical of them when the rest of the portfolio is doing well.
In that sense, I wouldn't classify DSENX / DSEEX as an alternative fund. It may use unusual methods, but it is basically a U.S. large cap value fund. That doesn't mean it isn't a good fund, but you should only add it if you're looking to add more U.S. large cap value to your portfolio (or if you're looking to replace your existing U.S. large cap fund).
John Waggoner: Investors' Lust For Bonds Continues In Their Hunt For Yield
John Waggoner: Investors' Lust For Bonds Continues In Their Hunt For Yield Feels like I've been here before - 1980 & 1999
Than there's poor Jimmy Carter who got himself in a heap of trouble in '76 for confessing (in a Playboy interview) that he had "lusted" in his heart many times. :)
Mairs & Power Small Cap Fund to close to new investors
"Outlier" Funds in Your Portfolio Also initiated a position in DSENX after listening to Mr Gundlach's July Webcast. In his words,for those.. (looking to) the stock market.. ,DSENX has an emphasis on risk management and risk adjusted returns. Recap here in Q and A.Two and
1/2 pages of quick hit commentary.
http://www.doublelinefunds.com/wp-content/uploads/7-12-16_AssetAllocationWebcast_Recap.pdfAlso opened small position in DRRAX today.Managed out of London.World view?
Trimmed Gold/Precious Metal positions over past 60 days.Now just under 5 % of investment total,mostly in TGLDX. Proceeds into PTIAX,now my largest bond holding.