U.S. Treasuries Staged A Wild Intraday Swing After The Election Hello,
Here is what's happening with me.
Since, Mr. Trump's victory was a surprise to many it also seems to be as well for the market. In my own portfolio, I have had some winning sectors as well as some laggards. All in all my portfolio has the same value comparing market close of November 7th to the close on the 10th. While some things have increased in value some things have also fallen in value netting me even. I guess this is one of the benefits of good diverfication. While my fund managers are perhaps making some changes ... I myself plan to just sit tight and rock along not dong much of anything until things gets sorted out by Mr. Market. Seems, by my math, the market as defined by the S&P 500 Index is up 1.6% form its 11/7 close of 2132 to its 11/10 close of 2167.
My three best performing sleeves since the election are my small/mid cap sleeve found in the growth area of my portfolio followed by my domestic hybrid sleeve found in the growth and income area along with my global hybrid sleeve which is also a member of the growth & income area as well. Its also interesting that my income area has held up much better than anticipated being flat like my portfolio as a whole. Seems, my hybrid income sleeve has, thus far, covered the losses that were a product of my income sleeve netting the area out flat.
Currently, I still lead my bogey ... The Lipper Balanced Index, although it has made some gains of late where I have been flat.
It will be interesting to see how things go today.
Skeet
Did I miss the memo? Emerging Markets Bonds It's pretty wild, so I had to doublecheck this on the Powershares site after seeing it on M*: PCY (US$) and LEMB (local currency) both fell in price today ~ 2x the drop in the IIV, resulting in very wide discounts, for etf's.
Here's PCY, discount now of
1.9%, and
here's LEMB, discount of 3.4%. From the charts a little way down from the top of the M* page, it looks like these may be the widest discounts ever for both.
Note also the very large trading volume.
Edit: Junkster mentioned HYD -
same thing going on there, too.
Looks like some panicky selling happening ... or maybe several big players adjusting allocations at the same time for the new national order? You'd have to bet EM oef's will be down much less than the etf's today.
Exactly and why I would never ever buy a bond ETF.
Edit; well, that was a shock. The open end fared worst than I thought with some of the emerging markets bond funds on my screen down 3% to 5% (OEMYX)
Did I miss the memo? Emerging Markets Bonds It's pretty wild, so I had to doublecheck this on the Powershares site after seeing it on M*: PCY (US$) and LEMB (local currency) both fell in price today ~ 2x the drop in the IIV, resulting in very wide discounts, for etf's.
Here's PCY, discount now of
1.9%, and
here's LEMB, discount of 3.4%. From the charts a little way down from the top of the M* page, it looks like these may be the widest discounts ever for both.
Note also the very large trading volume.
Edit: Junkster mentioned HYD -
same thing going on there, too.
Looks like some panicky selling happening ... or maybe several big players adjusting allocations at the same time for the new national order? You'd have to bet EM oef's will be down much less than the etf's today.
Did I miss the memo? Emerging Markets Bonds Re. EM bonds, last night I took a brief sachet thru yesterday's field of damage, and it looked like the extent of any MF's swoon was correlated with its ave. duration, generally speaking, as you would expect it to do. I didn't note a single exception to that.
However, among the group of funds with higher duration/greater pullback, there was something else going on. Some lost alot more than others, some as much as
1.3%. Currency effect, whereby if you had a big position in the "wrong" country, risk premiums for the sovereign increased quickly and bit you hard?
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-10/ringgit-slumps-with-korean-won-as-trump-win-fuels-trade-concernre. HY domestic junk, I don't have a clue what could be banging that. Time will tell, although--- if it were to continue on like back in January--- we could have (another) buying opportunity handed to us. ;)
Did I miss the memo? Emerging Markets Bonds EMB and PCY getting absolutely crushed today! That after what occurred in Treasuries yesterday. The rout in Treasuries since their most recent bottom (BREXIT) would qualify as a major rout in so short of a time. And the party in junk munis appears to be over. As for junk corporates, off hand, can't recall historically seeing such a divergence with the equity run as the past five days. So I guess we will be seeing headlines about is the long bull run in bonds (since 1982) finally over. A headline we have seen many times in the past, albeit not with the type of adverse price action we have recently been seeing.
Edit: and the decline in HYD is pretty staggering too today - giving up almost all its YTD gains in one session.
U.S. Treasuries Staged A Wild Intraday Swing After The Election Old _Skeet: How is your portfolio doing compared to the end of 3/rd Qter? I'm down about 1 1/2 %. Just wondering how other are doing from end of the 3/rd qter.
Thanks , Derf
U.S. Treasuries Staged A Wild Intraday Swing After The Election Hi
@hank,
While I have the market, as measured by the S&P 500 Index, up about
1.45% my portfolio is only up by 0.3% from the
11/7 market close (2
132) vs. the
11/9 market close (2
163). This is in part due to my sector allocations, my sizeable cash position, plus my global holdings have not yet begin to participate in the recent rally. My income area held up well with slight gains.
In my early morning viewing today, I am seeing many foreign markets gaining traction. With this, I'm looking for my global holdings to have some good gains today. For the past rolling five days, I am up overall about
1.2% throuh the
11/9 market close while I have the Index up better than 3.5%. I'm thinking my portfolio's returns will be much improved by week's end ... and, perhaps, your's will be as well.
In addition, I lead my bogey ... The Lipper Ballanced Index.
Skeet
Gross’s Unconstrained Fund Cut From Morningstar ‘Prospects’ The original column expressed concern about Gross not having enough resources to manage one fund, let alone more. Perhaps he could manage many funds if they all had teams of analysts behind them, but the point of the column was that he already needs to devote his full attention on his current Janus fund. Taking on more responsibilities without that support would be spreading himself thin.
The column I linked to supports this thesis (albeit without substantiation), saying that Gross' success with PTTRX was largely due to the PIMCo team and resources. These are lacking at Janus; Gross is somewhat on his own in Newport Beach.
Nor does Gross want to be involved in building a team. When he joined Janus,
he said "There is a team in place already" and as "an investment guy [] the other stuff - hiring, paying people, planning, and so on - became a problem for [him at PIMCo]".
Setting up a new fund and building a team is going to be a significant distraction for someone who finds these tasks problematic at this point in his career.
Gross’s Unconstrained Fund Cut From Morningstar ‘Prospects’
U.S. Treasuries Staged A Wild Intraday Swing After The Election
Gross’s Unconstrained Fund Cut From Morningstar ‘Prospects’ FYI: Bill Gross’s Janus Global Unconstrained Bond Fund was removed from a list of up-and-coming strategies compiled by Morningstar Inc. because of performance and questions about the fund’s management, the Chicago-based researcher said Tuesday.
The fund was taken off the list “because returns have been so-so versus major bond indexes, and there are questions about the resources behind Gross following the removal of Kumar Palghat as the co-manager,” Morningstar said in a note about its third-quarter 20
16 prospects list.
Regards,
Ted
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-08/gross-s-unconstrained-fund-removed-from-morningstar-prospects
The Breakfast Briefing: Dow Futures Drop 300 Points, Off Worst Levels, As Trump, Republicans Sweep
Lipper apparently begins its 1-5 ratings at 3y of performance, like M* [edited] msf said: "Also, Lipper's rankings are linearly distributed (1/5 in the top quintile, duh), while M*'s are more bell shaped (10% get 1 or 5 stars, 22.5% get 2 or 4 stars, and 35% get 3 stars.)
That's fascinating. Appears to be a type of front-loading or levering-up by M* similar to how a gambler (or investor) might use leverage to magnify a correct wager. And if he calls it incorrectly, the error is also magnified. Now I understand why M* sometimes makes so little sense to me when I try to match their ratings with my own perceptions after researching a fund's history.
Edit: The larger issue, IMHO, remains the difficulty of classifying funds so that meaningful comparisons can be drawn. Than again: What would we have to talk about here?
2016 Capital Gains Estimates While Artisan has not announced their 2016 distribution estimates, their website says:
"Artisan Partners Funds 2016 distribution record date will be November 16th and the Payment or Ex-Dividend date is November 17th"
My question is which is the latest date I can sell one of their funds and not receive the distribution? Is it by 4:00 PM on the record date Wednesday the 16th or is it by 4:00 PM on Tuesday the 15th?
Mona
Lipper apparently begins its 1-5 ratings at 3y of performance, like M* [edited] Until this decade, Lipper said that a fund that fell within the top quintile was in the first quintile. Apparently too many people thought that quintiles were the same as stars, and concluded that first quintile performance was lousy. So Lipper inverted its rankings a few years ago.
Also, Lipper's rankings are linearly distributed (
1/5 in the top quintile, duh), while M*'s are more
bell shaped (
10% get
1 or 5 stars, 22.5% get 2 or 4 stars, and 35% get 3 stars).
None of this speaks to the methodology, just the scoring.
Lipper apparently begins its 1-5 ratings at 3y of performance, like M* [edited] I misspoke in using the word 'star'; Lipper does a 1-5 rating, no star graphic. If you go to www.lipperleaders.com now, you indeed find results for the two DoubleLine Cape Enhanced, so their ranking start point must be 3y, same as M*. Don't know why it did not turn up on Marketwatch, should doublecheck. Ah, today they do show up. So 3y is there answer to my query, and never mind :) .
John Waggoner: Bipartisan Support From Dem. And Rep. Bodes Well For Infrastructure Investments Hello,
Infrastructure is one of the themes found in the speciality sleeve of my portfolio. I have used TOLLX in the past but have switched over to PGUAX, about a year ago, which offers a better yield with good ytd returns of 13.1% as of 10/28/2016.
The main sectors found in PGUAX are communications, energy, industrials and utilities.
Skeet
Q&A With Jim Rogers: Serious Economic Crisis Coming; Here's What I'm Doing
In the long run, Jim Rogers has been about as wrong as any guru out there on just about every asset class under the sun. Reminds me of the ex-resident stock picker on this forum now vanished whose stock picks were among the worst I had ever seen in my 50 years in this game. Sadly many here fell for his spiel and are now holding severely underwater stocks. Bottom line is be fiercely independent as an investor or trader and don't buy/sell based on the opinions/advice of others.
